1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index rebounded and rose by around 206 points (1.59%)
after a sharp fall on Thursday. The index witnessed a gap-up opening
and reclaimed the 13,000.0 and 13,100.0 levels, thus keeping its
upward hopes alive. However, the index needs to sustain above
13,100.0 in order to extend its rebound further toward 13,200.0. On
the flip side, any retreat below 13,100.0 may drag the index back to
test the 13,000.0 psychological level.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Bounce Back
ORDS gained 1.03% and bounced-back breaching its important
resistance of QR126.0. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish
piercing candlestick formation on the daily chart, which usually
provides a positive signal. Further, the RSI has turned flat after
moving down over the past few days. We believe the stock may
rebound further and proceed toward QR128.0, followed by
QR129.70. Conversely, any decline below QR126.0 may be bearish.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QERI Index snapped its three-day losing streak and ended the
session in the green with a gain of 1.37%. The index rebounded
following selling pressure over the past few days and moved above
the 4,400.0 level. However, traders are advised to wait and watch if
there is any further follow-through to yesterday’s rebound. The index
requires another bullish move for confirmation of this rebound.
Meanwhile, 4,400.0 may provide immediate psychological support.
Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Pullback
QIGD has been tagging lower lows on the chart and is in declining
mode since topping the current rally at QR62.40. The MACD line is
growing in a bearish manner, showing no immediate trend reversal
signs. We believe the stock may continue to underperform and drift
down further to test QR51.0. Any sustained weakness below this level
may pull the stock to test QR49.75. However, QIGD may get some
relief if it manages to climb above the QR52.20 level.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Rebound
BRES rebounded and gained 2.44% clearing its important resistance
of QR39.70. The stock developed a bullish Marubozu candlestick
formation on the daily chart, indicating the current pullback may be
over. Moreover, there is a bullish divergence on the RSI, while the
MACD is stalling from the declining mode. If BRES can cling on to
QR39.70, then the upside targets are QR40.20, followed by QR41.0.
However, any dip below QR39.70 may result in a pullback.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Rebound
QGTS reversed and advanced 2.26% surpassing its resistances of
QR23.0 and QR23.40, following a decline over the past few days.
Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, which is a positive sign.
Further, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candlestick formation,
indicating a likely continuation of this rebound. With the RSI showing a
positive divergence, the stock may extend its gains and test QR23.90.
However, any retreat below QR23.40 may drag the stock down.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,147.79 DOWN DOWN 13,100.00 13,019.55 13,195.88 13,350.54 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,424.09 DOWN DOWN 4,400.00 4,341.10 4,444.86 4,500.00 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
52.30
DOWN
DOWN
51.80
50.40
52.80
54.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.50 DOWN FLAT 69.70 68.40 70.70 71.50
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
56.90
DOWN
DOWN
55.80
54.90
57.00
58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 111.20 DOWN DOWN 110.00 107.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
84.80
DOWN
DOWN
83.00
81.70
84.90
85.90 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 98.00 FLAT UP 97.00 94.60 99.00 100.00 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
124.00
DOWN
DOWN
121.50
118.20
126.50
128.80 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
182.40
DOWN
DOWN
180.00
178.30
182.50
184.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.90 DOWN DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 186.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
110.60
DOWN
DOWN
109.00
104.50
111.90
115.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 51.70 DOWN DOWN 51.00 49.75 52.20 54.20 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
39.95
DOWN
DOWN
39.70
39.20
40.20
41.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.40 DOWN DOWN 27.35 26.70 27.85 28.20
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
18.80
DOWN
DOWN
18.10
17.50
18.97
19.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 21.85 DOWN DOWN 21.50 21.20 22.09 22.69 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)*
127.00
DOWN
DOWN
126.00
124.50
128.00
129.70 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.86 DOWN DOWN 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.40 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)*
23.49
DOWN
DOWN
23.40
23.00
23.90
24.20 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.00 DOWN DOWN 93.00 91.30 94.50 96.00