Home prices showed a slight decline in January according to most measures, with the exception of CoreLogic's distressed-excluded measure which increased slightly. Early February data showed year-over-year price increases for the first time since November 2010 according to existing home sales. Distressed sales, which hold back price increases, comprised 34% of sales in a recent survey, down from nearly 40% a year ago. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong demand are expected to continue supporting home prices.

1. Home Price Monitor
March 2012
National Association of REALTORS®
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure

2. Highlights
• On a month-to-month basis most home price measures showed a slight
decline in January. The exception was CoreLogic’s distressed-excluded
measure which showed a small increase. Early measures for February are all
positive, but these are not seasonally adjusted and can be explained by the
typical seasonal pickup in activity.
• On a year over year basis, small declines persisted across measures in
January within the range that has been typical of recent months.
• Notably, early February data show a year over year increase in existing home
prices, the first such increase since November 2010.
• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of
construction and purchase activity.
• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 34
percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtors—down from nearly 40
percent a year ago and within the range of what has been typical in
recent months.

3. Outlook
• From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue to
drive the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong
foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the
right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new
construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find
more selection among existing homes.
• In addition to low inventory making it difficult for buyers to find the right
home, seller pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data
from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold
their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at
least once.
• Affordability remains high and the jobs figures continue to be a positive sign.
An improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt
to primary residence sales. Rising apartment rents may make a home purchase
the more affordable option for some households.

4. Home Prices
$280,000 280.00
$260,000 260.00
$240,000 240.00
$220,000 220.00
$200,000 200.00
$180,000 180.00
$160,000 160.00
$140,000 140.00
$120,000 120.00
$100,000 100.00
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-02
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-11
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Oct-04
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-02
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

5. Home Price Data – Year over Year Change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jan-02
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

6. Home Price Changes
Jan-12 Jan-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Next
Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Release
Data Series Change* Change* Change* Change* Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -4.7% -2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 19-Apr
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -4.9% -2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 19-Apr
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.5% -0.7% -- -- 24-Apr
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -0.8% -3.8% -- -- 24-Apr
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -3.9% -- -- 24-Apr
CoreLogic National HPI -1.0% -3.1% -- -- Mid-Apr
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.7% -0.9% -- -- Mid-Apr
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -1.3% -10.2% 8.3% 6.2% 24-Apr
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media
regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with
caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a
measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

7. Spread of Existing Home Price Changes
Year over Year
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

8. Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory
4,500,000 14.0
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at
EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
4,000,000
12.0
3,500,000
10.0
3,000,000
2,500,000 8.0
2,000,000 6.0
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,
1,500,000 United States (Months) (right axis)
4.0
1,000,000
2.0
500,000
0 0.0
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
Sources: NAR

9. Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
Sources: Census

10. Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
Sources: BLS

11. Potential Job Growth – Openings
4,500
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Sources: BLS

12. Housing Affordability
25 250.0
20 NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite 200.0
(right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income
(left axis)
15 150.0
10 100.0
5 50.0
0 0.0
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
Sources: NAR

13. About the Price Data Series
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;
quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 composites are 3 month moving averages
CoreLogic National HPI Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded recorder data
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER