This seminar provides an update on the state of the evidence for human-induced climate change and will addresses the issue of climate dismissal: Why is it happening and what can be done to turn around an increasingly unhelpful situation?

1. Climate TO PROSPER
Chris Rapley
Hotting Up -
Climate and Belief
Monday, 7 October 13

2. Climate TO PROSPER
Astronomical
Hydrosphere
Geosphere
Atmosphere
Cryosphere
Biosphere
Humanity
Most Complex Object
Monday, 7 October 13

3. Climate TO PROSPER
Atmospheric CO2 ppm
400
May 2013
First humans to breathe CO2 at this concentration
Monday, 7 October 13

4. Climate TO PROSPER
In Context
NOW
Monday, 7 October 13

5. Climate TO PROSPER
John Tyndall 1859
Monday, 7 October 13

6. Climate TO PROSPER
Energy Accumulation
90%
Monday, 7 October 13

7. Climate TO PROSPER
Patterns of Evidence
Monday, 7 October 13

8. Climate TO PROSPER
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM
The most thoroughly and rigorously
reviewed Scientific Document in history
• 209 lead authors
• >600 contributing authors from 32
countries
• 50 review editors from 39
countries
• >9200 publications cited
• 54677 comments from 1089
reviewers from 46 countries and
38 governments
• Approved by 195 governments
Monday, 7 October 13

9. Climate TO PROSPER
What Does it Say?
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
and since the 1950s many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to
millennia.
The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the
amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea
level has risen ...
Monday, 7 October 13

10. Climate TO PROSPER
Surface Temperatures
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at
the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1950.
In the Northern hemisphere 1983-2012 was likely the warmest
30-y period in the last 1400y
Monday, 7 October 13

11. Climate TO PROSPER
Human influence on the climate system is clear. (It) has been detected in warming of
the atmosphere and ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow
and ice, in global mean sea level rise and in changes in some climate extremes. ...
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th Century
Human Attribution
Monday, 7 October 13

12. Climate TO PROSPER
Patterns of Evidence
Monday, 7 October 13

13. Climate TO PROSPER
Over the last two decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing
mass, glaciers have continued to shrink worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and
Northern Hemisphere snow cover have continued to decrease in extent
The rate of ice loss from both ice sheets increased by factor 5-6 between 1992-2001
and 2002-2011
Ice Sheet Melt
Monday, 7 October 13

14. Climate TO PROSPER
Global Warming and
Cumulative emissions
Monday, 7 October 13

15. Climate TO PROSPER
John Kerry
Boil down the IPCC
report and here’s what
you find: Climate
change is real, it’s
happening now, human
beings are the cause of
the transformation, and
early action by human
beings can save the
world from its worst
impacts.
Monday, 7 October 13

16. Climate TO PROSPER
Unusually Stable Climate
Monday, 7 October 13

17. Climate TO PROSPER
Imperfectly Adapted
Monday, 7 October 13

18. Climate TO PROSPER
The Challenge
Who gets what share?
Monday, 7 October 13

19. Climate TO PROSPER
http://gpwayne.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/lawson-climate-change-and-the-power-of-wishful-thinking/
Climate
Dismissal
Monday, 7 October 13

20. Climate TO PROSPER
The Rise and Rise of
Dismissal
• How do people form opinions and beliefs?
• How do people become convinced they are
right when the evidence says otherwise?
• How do we turn the current situation around?
Monday, 7 October 13

21. Climate TO PROSPER
Not The Higgs
Monday, 7 October 13

22. Climate TO PROSPER
Anxiety, Fear, Loss, Grief, Guilt, Helplessness
Monday, 7 October 13

23. Climate TO PROSPER
Can Challenge Strongly Held
Values and beliefs of which we may
only be dimly aware or Unaware
Monday, 7 October 13

24. Climate TO PROSPER
Pivotal Object
Mk1 Brain
Monday, 7 October 13

25. Climate TO PROSPER
Hidden Part
Deliberative
Monday, 7 October 13

26. Climate TO PROSPER
Our Minds Seek Meaning
Not Reality
Monday, 7 October 13

27. Climate TO PROSPER
Capable of believing
almost anything
Monday, 7 October 13

28. Monday, 7 October 13

29. Climate TO PROSPER
On Being Misled
Monday, 7 October 13

30. Climate TO PROSPER
Beau Lotto
Monday, 7 October 13

31. Climate TO PROSPER
Beau Lotto
Monday, 7 October 13

32. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

33. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

34. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

35. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

36. Climate TO PROSPER
Visual Processors
- Automatic
- Always on
- In the hidden part
- Err on the side of false positives
Monday, 7 October 13

37. Monday, 7 October 13

38. Climate TO PROSPER
Associative Linker
- Automatic
- Always on
- In the hidden part
- Associations delivered may or
may not be relevant
- If time, deliberative intervention
can resolve
Monday, 7 October 13

39. Climate TO PROSPER
Heider and Simmel - 1946
Monday, 7 October 13

40. Climate TO PROSPER
What Did We See?
- Agency
- Intentions & Motivations
- Emotions
- Character Traits
Monday, 7 October 13

41. Climate TO PROSPER
Social Evaluation and
Narrative Processors
- Automatic
- Always on
- In the hidden part
- Snap judgements
- Stereotypes
Monday, 7 October 13

42. Climate TO PROSPER
Hidden Contributions to
a Thought
Weighing of
Inputs
mental sensations
(cognitive feelings)
thought
action
genetic / biological
predispositions
memories and
experience
physical sensations from
environment / body
emotions and moods
socio-cultural heritage
and pressures
unknown emergent
phenomena
Adapted from Burton,”A Skeptic’s Guide to the Mind” 2013
Monday, 7 October 13

43. Climate TO PROSPER
Automatic Associations
Feelings steer What we Think
Determine What we Feel
Deep Satisfaction when feel
Right
Feelings drive need to
formulate meaning even if
there is none
Monday, 7 October 13

44. Climate TO PROSPER
Divergent Beliefs
Kris De Meyer
Cycle of Action and Self-Justification
Monday, 7 October 13

45. Climate TO PROSPER
Pre-existing Hidden
Associations tip us down one
side of the triangle
Step by step we consolidate our
position as we seek to feel
right not wrong
in doing so we become
increasingly practiced and
resolute
Thought becomes Belief
Monday, 7 October 13

46. Climate TO PROSPER
To account for those who
differ we assume they are ...
Sad - Mad - Bad
Monday, 7 October 13

47. Climate TO PROSPER
- Ill-informed / Misled
- Incapable / Crazy
- Self-interested / Evil
Monday, 7 October 13

48. Climate TO PROSPER
“Swivel-eyed Loons”
Monday, 7 October 13

49. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

50. Climate TO PROSPER
As Convinced and Sincere as
we are
Monday, 7 October 13

51. Climate TO PROSPER
The Meaning they have
extracted from the same
evidence is based on a
different set of associations
and filters
Monday, 7 October 13

52. Climate TO PROSPER
How do minds change?
Monday, 7 October 13

53. Climate TO PROSPER
When the facts change I change
my mind - what do you do?
John Maynard Keynes
Monday, 7 October 13

54. Climate TO PROSPER
Faced with a choice of changing
ones mind and with proving there
is no need to do so almost
everyone gets busy with the
proof
J K Galbraith
Monday, 7 October 13

55. Climate TO PROSPER
• Assuming others have pieces of the
answer
• Collaborative
• About finding common ground
• Listening to understand
• Exploring assumptions
• Discovering new possibilities
• Seeking constructive progress
Debate Dialogue
Mode of Engagement
• Assuming there is one right answer
• Combative
• About winning
• Listening for flaws
• Defending assumptions
• Pursuing your outcome
• Asymmetries of engagement
• Entertainment× ✓
Monday, 7 October 13

56. Climate TO PROSPER
“Safe Space”
- Cost
- Scaling up
Monday, 7 October 13

57. Climate TO PROSPER
• Do the Science
• Present and Explain
• Raise Issues
• Actively Support
Decision-making
Scientists’ Role
Monday, 7 October 13

58. Climate TO PROSPER
OPEN UP MORE OPTIONS
Monday, 7 October 13

59. Climate TO PROSPER
Work with Those Permitted
to Provoke New Thinking
Monday, 7 October 13

60. Climate TO PROSPER
Monday, 7 October 13

61. Climate TO PROSPER
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62. Climate TO PROSPER
The science isn’t over until it has
been communicated - and acted
upon
Monday, 7 October 13

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