Klingbeil, R., 2012. Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East. Presentation in the Water Resources Seminar, 17 January 2012, American University of Technology, Halat - Byblos, Lebanon.
R. Klingbeil, 2012: Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East
1. Challenges to Water Resources
Management in the Middle East
AUT, Halat-Byblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil
17 Januar y 2012 Regional Advisor Environment & Water
4. Opening Quotes
• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the water
challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab
doors, right now.”
Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4
5. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought
IOM, July 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5
6. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010
IOM, July 2010
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7. Outline
• UN-ESCWA
A UN Regional Economic Commission
• Regional Water Overview:
The Many Dimensions of Water
– Water Availability and Demand
– Solutions to a Dilemma?
– Water and Food, Virtual Water, Food Imports
– Transboundary Water and Transboundary Aquifers
– Climate Change
• What remains to be said.
Hope?
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8. UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in the UN
ECE
1947
ESCWA
ECLAC 1973
1948
ECA ESCAP
1958 1947
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9. UN ESCWA
• 14 Member Countries
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Qatar
• Oman
• Palestine
• Saudi Arabia
• Sudan
• Syrian Arab
Republic
• United Arab
Emirates
• Yemen
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10. Sustainable Development and Productivity
Productive
Energy Water
Sectors
§ Energy efficiency § Integrated water § Competitiveness
§ Access to modern resource and productivity of
energy services management SMEs
§ Renewable (IWRM) § Environmentally
energies § Management of sound technologies
§ Advanced/cleaner shared water § Sustainable
fossil fuels resources agriculture and
§ Rural electrification § Improved water rural development
§ Sustainable energy supply and § Trade and
use in transport sanitation environment
Cross-cutting issues:
§ Climate change adaptation and mitigation
§ Sustainable consumption and production
§ Green economy
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11. Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change
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16. Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
ESCWA, 2009
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17. Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
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18. Arab Countries’ Water Availability and Use
www.carboun.com, 2011
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19. High Rate of Population Growth
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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20. High Rate of Population Growth
in ESCWA Region
ESCWA, 2009
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21. Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater
Renewable groundwater resources
Non-renewable groundwater
Non ground water resources
ESCWA, 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21
29. Regional Water Overview
Water and Food, Virtual Water,
Food Imports
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30. Water and Food
Food Security
• Food security vs. food self-sufficiency.
• Food security vs. internal agricultural production.
• Food security and nonrenewable groundwater
resources.
• A recent World Bank study on water
economics in the Middle East and North
Africa estimates that groundwater resources
depletion has substantially reduced GDP in
some countries, by 2.1% in Jordan, 1.5% in
Yemen, 1.3% in Egypt, and 1.2% in Tunis.
• Food security and virtual water - implications for:
• Trade
• Rural development, including women & youth
• Foreign revenue reserves
• Sustainability
33. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
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34. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Location of aquifer utilisation zones and outcrop area of principal
aquifers (WaterWatch, 2006)
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35. Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
we are here, but
where are we
going next?
after
Al Zubari, 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 35
36. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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38. Sources of Water and Use
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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39. Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Essentially 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high political risk, long term impact, adopted
economic development model
• Agricultural Policy change –
medium political risk, medium term impact
• Water Policy change –
lower political risk, short term impact
• Combination of two or three of the above
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 39
40. Three Levels of Scarcity
WB, 2007
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41. Regional Water Overview
Transboundary Water and
Transboundary Aquifers
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42. TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide
• MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,
BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater
• Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not
necessarily fit to the needs in MENA
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43. What is a Transboundary Aquifer ?
UNESCO / ISARM,
2001
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44. TB Water & Aquifers in Middle East
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45. TB Water Cooperation – Principles
1. Equitable and Reasonable Utilisation
2. Obligation not to Cause Significant Harm
3. General Obligation to Cooperate
§ Regular Exchange of Data and Information
§ Bilateral and Regional Agreements & Arrangements
4. Environmental Protection
§ Protection and Preservation of Ecosystems
§ Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution
5. Monitoring and Management
Limited Sovereignty of Riparian / Aquifer States
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 45
46. Jordan River Basin
• 4 / 5 riparians Y
officially support the LEBANON
1997 UN Watercourse
Y
SYRIA
Convention
JORDAN
N RIVER
Y
BASIN
Y JORDAN
PALESTINE
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 46
Zeitoun 2010
49. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Klein, 1998
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50. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)
Libanon
Dan (250 Mio m³/a)
Banias (125 Mio m³/a)
Israel Golan
Jordan
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51. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River
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52. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River
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53. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
Klein,1998
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60. Eastern Mountain Aquifer
• Ein Samia, well field • Spring Fazael, close to
for Ramallah water Jordan valley
supply
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61. Israel - Palestine: The Mountain Aquifers
• Geological Cross Section from West to East
FAO. 2009
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62. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Historical Use: Surface and Groundwater
Zeitoun, Messerschmid, Attili, 2009
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63. Groundwater Data: Israel – Palestine
Groundwater Development Costs
MacDonald et al., 2009
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64. Israel-Palestine:
Western Aquifer - Boreholes
SUSMAQ, 2004
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65. Gaza as Part of TB Coastal Aquifer
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Messerschmid 2009
66. Gaza as Part of TB Coastal Aquifer
• Chloride concentrations in public drinking water wells
Messerschmid 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 66
67. Gaza - End of Humanity?
• What is the World waiting for?
• Gaza cannot be self-supplied
with water
… just like Manhattan
• Desalination does not solve
the main problems of the
humanitarian and
environmental crisis
• Blockade is the greatest
environmental hazard
• Do we have to wait for
Cholera?
Messerschmid 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 67
68. Perspectives
• No resolution of the water conflict without
reallocation of freshwater
• No viable Palestinian State without sufficient
water.
• Negotiated agreement must be based on
equitable reallocation of shared water resources.
• Equitable distribution with Palestinians without
harm to Israel is possible.
• Water can be used as a vehicle for peace, but is
a source of further conflict.
Zeitoun 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 68
69. Perspectives
Friends of the Earth Middle East
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 69
70. Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work
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71. Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising
living standards,
climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions
across the Arab world.
• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled
with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.
• Higher temperatures will influence water quality and may
cause additional sanitation problems
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 71
72. Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 72
73. Change in Precipitation
Hue shows change in mm/y.
Saturation / intensity shows the
change as percentage of 2005
PPTN.
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 73
74. Change in Length of Dry Season
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 74
75. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 75
76. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 76
77. Water – Key Development Issues
Facilitating Food Crisis
Economic Growth
Governance & Finance
Water Resources Management
Livable
Water Supply Climate
Cities
Growth
and Change
Human Development
Water Conflicts
Decentralization
Sanitation
Peak Water
Water Security
Local human services
Urbanization Irrigation Energy and
and Rural Development Hydropower
Poverty Impact Challenges
Water, Climate and Environment
Transboundary Water Financial
Crisis WB, Saghir, 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 77
78. Main Messages
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enough water for all demands.
• Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their
water needs only from within their national boundaries.
• All countries are already net water importers through
food imports – virtual water.
• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely
economically viable nor socially necessary.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 78
79. Main Messages
• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population
policies with regard to water consumption and protection.
• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e.
(needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.
• Effective und sustainable management of transboundary
water needs willingness to cooperate for a more
equitable sharing of the benefits from the common
resource.
• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of
economic tools, social justice and environmental
sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral
agreements on water, the region may actually slowly
move towards a mass suicide.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 79
80.
81. Challenges to Water Resources
Management in the Middle East
AUT, Halat-Byblos, Lebanon Ralf Klingbeil
17 Januar y 2012 Regional Advisor Environment & Water