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Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS)
                                     S&T Priority
                              Description and Roadmap

                                              Dr. Robert Neches
                                               ERS PSC Lead
                            Director, Advanced Engineering Initiatives, ODASD SE
                                           Robert.Neches@osd.mil
                                              31 October 2011


ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-1
                             Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems Spans
                                the Systems Life cycle
                 Resilience: Effective in a wide range of situations,
        readily adaptable to others through reconfiguration or replacement,
                with graceful and detectable degradation of function
                1 - Affordable via faster eng., less rework




                                                                                 2 - Effective
                                                                                 via better informed
                                                                                 design decision
                                                                                 making


                                                                                                   3 - Adaptable
                                                                                                   through design &
                                                                                                   test for wider
                                                                                                   range of mission
                                                                                                   contexts


                           Uncertain futures, and resultant mission volatility,
                   require affordably adaptable and effective systems – done quickly
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-2
                                Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
The Problem Goes Beyond Process:
                          Need New Technologies, Broader Community

                          Rapidly	
  necks	
  down	
  alterna&ves	
                                   Decisions	
  made	
  w/o	
  info	
           50	
  years	
  of	
  
                                                                                                                                                 process	
  reforms	
  
                     Compe-ng	
  
                      designs	
                          Rqmts2	
                                                                               haven’t	
  controlled	
  
         AoA	
                                                                         Redesign	
                                                 &me,	
  cost	
  and	
  
                                    Eng.	
  design	
            Risk	
  reduc-on	
                              Compete	
  LRIP	
  
Rqmts1	
                                                                                              T&E	
                   Etc.                performance	
  
                                                           T&E	
  
 Sequen&al	
  and	
  slow	
                         Informa&on	
  lost	
  at	
  every	
  step	
                        Ad	
  hoc	
  reqmts	
  refinement	
  

                                                 Fast, easy, inexpensive up-front engineering:
                                                                     •  Automatically consider many variations
                                                                     •  Propagate changes, maintain constraints
                                                                     •  Introduce and evaluate many usage scenarios
                                                                     •  Explore technical & operational tradeoffs
                                                                     •  Iteratively refine requirements
                                                                     •  Adapt and build in adaptivity
                                                                     •  Learn and update


ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-3
                                             Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems:
                                  Needs and Technology Issues

       Creating & fielding affordable, effective systems entails:
                •  Deep trade-off analyses across mission contexts
                          •    Adaptability, effectiveness and affordability in the trade-space
                          •    Maintained for life

                •  More informative requirements
                •  Well-founded requirements refinement
                •  More alternatives, maintained longer

       Doing so quickly and adaptably requires new technology:
                •  Models with representational richness
                •  Learning about operational context
                •  Uncertainty- and Risk- based tools
                          Starting point: Model- and Platform- based engineering
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-4
                                     Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
System Representation and Modeling:
                             Technical Gaps and Challenges
             Technology                    10-Yr Goal                                             Gaps


Capturing	
                                                         •  Combining	
  live	
  and	
  virtual	
  worlds	
  	
  

 •  Physical	
  and	
                                               •  Bi-­‐direc6onal	
  linking	
  of	
  physics-­‐based	
  	
  &	
  
    logical	
  structures	
   Model	
  95%	
                           sta6s6cal	
  models	
  
                              of	
  a	
  complex	
  
 •  Behavior	
                                                      •  Key	
  mul6disciplinary,	
  mul6scale	
  models	
  
                                weapons	
  
 •  Interac&on	
  with	
            system	
                        •  Automated	
  and	
  semi-­‐automated	
  	
  
    the	
  environment	
                                               acquisi6on	
  techniques	
  
    and	
  other	
  
    systems	
                                                       •  Techniques	
  for	
  adaptable	
  models	
  


  We need to create and manage many classes (executable, depictional,
statistical...) and many types (device and environmental physics, comms,
             sensors, effectors, software, systems ...) of models
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-5
                              Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Characterizing Changing Operational
                      Environments: Technical Gaps and Challenges

             Technology                   10-Yr Goal                                              Gaps
                                                                      •  Learning	
  from	
  live	
  and	
  virtual	
  
       Deeper	
                                                          opera6onal	
  systems	
  
   understanding	
  of	
  
   warfighter	
  needs	
                                               •  Synthe6c	
  environments	
  for	
  
                                         Military	
                      experimenta6on	
  and	
  learning	
  
  Directly	
  gathering	
             Effec-veness	
  
                                                       •  Crea6ng	
  opera6onal	
  context	
  models	
  
  opera&onal	
  data	
                   Breadth	
        (missions,	
  environments,	
  threats,	
  
                                       Assessment	
       tac6cs,	
  and	
  ConOps)	
  
      Understanding	
  	
               Capability	
  
       opera&onal	
                                                   •  Genera6ng	
  meaningful	
  tests	
  and	
  use	
  
        impacts	
  of	
                                                  cases	
  from	
  opera6onal	
  data	
  
       alterna&ves	
  
                                                                      •  Synthesis	
  &	
  applica6on	
  of	
  models	
  




ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-6
                            Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Cross-Domain Coupling:
                          Technical Gaps and Challenges
          Technology             10-Yr Goal                                                Gaps

                                                        •  Dynamic	
  modeling/analysis	
  workflow	
  
      BeHer	
  
   interchange	
                      •  Consistency	
  across	
  hybrid	
  models	
  
     between	
  
incommensurate	
   Weapons	
   •  Automa6cally	
  generated	
  surrogates	
  
      models	
         system	
  
                      modeled	
  	
   •  Seman6c	
  mappings	
  and	
  repairs	
  
                        fully	
  
    Resolving	
        across	
   •  Program	
  interface	
  extensions	
  that:	
  
     temporal,	
      domains	
            •  Automate	
  parameteriza6on	
  	
  
    mul&-­‐scale,	
                           and	
  boundary	
  condi6ons	
  
   mul&-­‐physics	
                        •  Coordinate	
  cross-­‐phenomena	
  simula6ons	
  
       issues	
                            •  Tie	
  to	
  decision	
  support	
  
                                                               •  Couple	
  to	
  virtual	
  worlds	
  

          Making the wide range of model classes and types work together
         effectively requires new computing techniques (not just standards)
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-7
                           Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Tradespace Analysis:
                          Technical Gaps and Challenges
     Technology            10-Yr Goal                                                 Gaps
                                                •  Guided	
  automated	
  searches,	
  selec6ve	
  search	
  algorithms	
  
   Efficiently	
  
   genera&ng	
                                  •  Ubiquitous	
  compu6ng	
  for	
  genera6ng/evalua6ng	
  op6ons	
  
       and	
  
   evalua&ng	
                                  •  Iden6fying	
  high-­‐impact	
  variables	
  and	
  likely	
  interac6ons	
  
                             Trade	
  
   alterna&ve	
            analyses	
           •  New	
  sensi6vity	
  localiza6on	
  algorithms	
  
     designs	
             over	
  very	
  
                             large	
            •  Algorithms	
  for	
  measuring	
  adaptability	
  
   Evalua&ng	
             condi-on	
  
                                                •  Risk-­‐based	
  cost-­‐benefit	
  analysis	
  tools,	
  presenta6ons	
  
   op&ons	
  in	
             sets	
  
     mul&-­‐                                    •  Integra6ng	
  reliability	
  and	
  cost	
  into	
  acquisi6on	
  decisions	
  
  dimensional	
  
  tradespaces	
                                 •  Cost-­‐and	
  6me-­‐sensi6ve	
  uncertainty	
  management	
  via	
  
                                                   experimental	
  design	
  	
  and	
  ac6vity	
  planning	
  
      Exploring more options and keeping them open longer, by managing
      complexity and leveraging greater computational testing capabilities
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-8
                           Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Collaborative Design & Decision Support:
                        Technical Gaps and Challenges
       Technology                10-Yr Goal                                                 Gaps

                                                            •  Usable	
  mul6-­‐dimensional	
  tradespaces	
  
                           Computa-onal	
   •  Ra6onale	
  capture	
  
    Well-­‐                  /	
  physical	
  
  informed,	
  	
          models	
  bridged	
   •  Aids	
  for	
  priori6zing	
  tradeoffs,	
  	
  
     low-­‐                by	
  3D	
  prin-ng	
   explaining	
  decisions	
  
  overhead	
  
collabora&ve	
   Data-­‐driven	
                            •  Accessible	
  systems	
  engineering,	
  
                                                               acquisi6on,	
  physics	
  and	
  behavioral	
  models	
  
   decision	
       trade	
  decisions	
  
   making	
  	
      executed	
  and	
                      •  Access	
  controls	
  
                       recorded	
  
                                                            •  Informa6on	
  push-­‐pull	
  without	
  flooding	
  

        ERS requires the transparency for many stakeholders to be able to
         understand and contribute, with low overhead for participating
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-9
                          Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
 What       Constitutes Success?
 Adaptable (and thus robust) designs
 –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified
 –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability
 –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust
 –  Target: 50% of system is modifiable to new mission

                                        Faster, more efficient engineering iterations
                                           –    Virtual design – integrating 3D geometry, electronics, software
                                           –    Find problems early:
                                           –    Shorter risk reduction phases with prototypes
                                           –    Fewer, easier redesigns
                                           –    Accelerated design/test/build cycles
                                           –    Target: 12x speed-up in development time

  Decisions informed by mission needs
  –    More options considered deeply, broader trade space analysis
  –    Interaction and iterative design among collaborative groups
  –    Ability to simulate & experiment in synthetic operational environments
  –    Target: 95% of system informed by trades across ConOps/env.

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-10
                             Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Opportunities to Participate
                           DoD Needs Innovative Tools and Algorithms from
                                       Industry and Academia
  Organization	
                                   BAA Title	
                              Closing Date	
            Reference #	
  
       ONR                            Energetic Materials Program R&D                          23-Dec-11              12-SN-0001
    Dept of Army            Adaptive Vehicle Management System (AVMS) Phase II                  6-Jan-12           W911W6-11-R-0013
                           BAA Reconnaissance and Surveillance payloads, sensors,
 NAWC Lakehurst                                                                                14-Feb-12            N68335-11-R-0018
                                       delivery systems and platforms
        NAVFAC                         BAA Expeditionary technologies                          2-Mar-12             BAA-09-03-RIKA
 US Army USACE                                      2011 BAA                                   31-Mar-12           W912HZ-11-BAA-02
      NRL                                       NRL-Wide BAA                                   16-Jun-12             BAA-N00173-01
US Army RDECOM-
                                  Technology Focused Areas of Interest BAA                    15-Sep-12            W15QKN-10-R-0513
     ARDEC
                                                                                                                 W911NF-07-R-0003-04
           ARL                      Basic and Applied Scientific Research                     31-Dec-12
                                                                                                                     & -0001-05
    Dept of Army                      Army Rapid Innovation Fund BAA                          29-Sep-12             W911NF11R0017
      ONR                              BAA, Navy and Marine Corp S&T                          30-Sep-12                ONR 12-002
NASC Training Sys
                             R&D for Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office               4-Dec-12            N61339-08-R-0013
      Div
   AFRL Kirtland                                  STRIVE BAA                                 Draft Posted            FA945311R0285
           WHS                           DoD Rapid Innovation Fund                                n/a          HQ0034-RIF-11-BAA-0001
                           Reasoning, Comprehension, Perception and Anticipation
   AFRL WPAFB                                                                                     n/a               BAA-10-03-RIKA
                                       in Multi-Domain Environments
     AFRL Rome                Emerging Computing Technology and Applications                      n/a               BAA-09-08-RIKA
     AFRL Rome                     Cross Domain Innovative Technologies                           n/a               BAA-10-09-RIKA
     AFRL Rome                    Computing Architecture Technologies BAA                         n/a              BAA-09-03-RIKA
                                                                                                                 Subject to Presidential
           WHS                                   Systems 2020                                     n/a
                                                                                                                   Budget Approval
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-11
                                  Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Envisioned End State


                            Improved Engineering and Design Capabilities
                           •  More environmental and mission context
                           •  More alternatives developed, evaluated and maintained
                           •  Better trades: managing interactions, choices, consequences



                  Improved Systems                                                    Improved Engineering
          •  Highly effective:                                                             Processes
             better performance,
             greater mission effectiveness                                             •  Fewer rework cycles
          •  Easier to adapt,                                                          •  Faster cycle completion
             reconfigure or replace                                                    •  Better managed
          •  Confidence in graceful                                                       requirements shifts
             degradation of function
                              PoC: Dr. Robert Neches, Robert.Neches@osd.mil
                      ODASD(SE), Rm 3C160, 3040 Defense Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-12
                                    Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
BACK-UPS




ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-13
                           Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems S&T
                                  Priority Steering Council
                           AF - Ken Barker, Bill Nolte
                              Supporting: G. Richard Freeman, Ed Kraft, Sean Coghlan,
                                          Kenny Littlejohn, Bob Bonneau, Ernie Haendschke,
                                          Mark Longbrake, Dale Burnham, Al Thomas
                           Army - Jeffery Holland, Kevin Flamm, Elizabeth Burg, Nikki Goerger
                              Supporting: Dave Horner, Dave Richards, Elias Rigas,
                                           Rob Wallace, Robert King, Chris Gaughan,
                                           Dana Trzeciak, Lester Strauch
                           Navy - Bobby Junker, Wen Masters
                              Supporting: John Tangney, John Pazik, Terry Ericsen,
                                          Ralph Wachter (now detailed to NSF),
                                          Connie Heitmeyer, Lynn Ewart-Paine, Bill Nickerson
                                          Bob Pohanka
                           DARPA - Chris Earl
                           OSD – Robert Neches
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-14
                                   Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems

       Mission
    volatility and
      uncertain
        futures                  Adaptability
     necessitate                    Reflected in # of
      affordably                     adaptations possible vs                         Systems Modeling
    adaptable &                      new build                                          95% coverage of systems and sub-
       effective                 Speed of solution                                       system designs
       systems                      Relativeto current                              Characterization of Changing
  Adaptable through                 baselines, with many                            Operational Contexts
    reconfiguration or               more trades & recourses                            Ability to assess effectiveness of
    replacement                                                                          concepts across changing missions,
                                     considered                                          threats, environments
  Affordable from
    being designed,              Informed Designs                                    Cross-domain Coupling of Models
    evaluated, built, and           %system   design that has                          Broad interoperation across
    tested faster, with              included exploration of                             disciplines, scales, fidelity levels
    fewer design cycles
                                     engineering trades, cost,                       Data-driven Tradespace Analysis
  Effective through
                                     schedule, CONOPS and                               Ability to analyze millions of trades,
    engineering                                                                          assess sensitivities & risks
    informed by data-                environmental variations
    driven evaluations                                                               Collaborative Design & Decision
    of options and                                                                   Support
    recourses                                                                           Ability to speed decision processes

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-15
                             Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems: Where
                                    the Work’s Headed



Present




Future




                            Leveraging Knowledge and Data to Reduce Risk
                           Retaining Knowledge & Recourses to Increase Adaptability
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-16
                                  Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Example Engineering Shortfalls:
                               Challenges and Opportunities
    •  Dynamic threats and missions outstripping our ability to specify,
       design and build responsive systems (IEDs, electronic warfare)
    •  New concepts of operations not discovered until late in design, or
       until operational test (Longbow lock-on after launch)
    •  “Small” engineering changes with unintended consequences (F18)
    •  Suboptimal trades in performance, reliability, maintainability,
       affordability, schedule (MRAP, FCS)
                                                                                                  F/A-­‐18	
  System	
  Level	
  Drawing	
  

    •  Late discovery of defects (ACS sensors)
    •  Mismatched engineering tools (787)
    •  Persistent reliability/availability shortfalls
       exacerbated by untrusted components

                           Shortfalls point to significant research challenges to
                                     improve engineering productivity
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-17
                                 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Driving Applications Producing
                           New Questions for Next-Gen Engineers

         •     Air Maneuver
         •     Ground Vehicles                                                             •  Upgrades & Life
                                                                                              Cycle Extension
         •     Electric Ships
         •     Propulsion and                                                              •  New Systems
               Energy Systems



    •         How many operational concepts can this support?
    •         What’s the tradeoff between features and diversity?
    •         What are my options, trading capability vs. delivery time?
    •         What’re my adequate interim options?
    •         If the changing environment invalidates investments,
              how do we recover?
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-18
                                Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems:
                                 “Requirements”
           ERS products are engineering tools, methodologies, paradigms that link:
   •  Conception, design, engineering, prototyping, testing, production, field usage and adaptation
                      •  Engineers, warfighters, industry and other stakeholders

                                  •  Adaptable (and thus robust) designs
                                         –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified
                                         –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability
  How Do We Get...
                                         –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust

    Robustness                    •  Faster, more efficient design iterations
                                         –  Virtual design, in 3D geometry, electronics, and software combined
    Efficiency                           –  Find problems early:
                                              –  Reduced risk reduction phases with prototypes
    Options
                                              –  Fewer and easier redesigns
                                         –  Accelerated design/test/build cycles

                                  •  Decisions informed by mission needs
                                         –  More options considered deeply, broader trade space analyses
                                         –  Interaction and iterative design in context among collaborative groups
                                         –  Ability to simulate and experiment in synthetic operational environments

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-19
                             Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Emerging Key Concepts

                Model-based engineering
             + Open architectures, advanced mathematics
             + User feedback on computational prototyping
             + Collaborative environment for all phases, all stakeholders
             + Deeper tradespace / alternatives analysis
             + Engineering capability enhanced by data, tools, advanced
               evaluation methods in both live and test environments
             + “Mission utility breadth” as an alternative to point design
               requirements
             + Reduced engineering time from intelligent test scheduling
             + Speed and flexibility gains of rapid manufacturing
             = Robust systems, efficient engineering, options against
               uncertain futures
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-20   Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems
                            Key Technical Thrust Areas
Systems Representation and Modeling
   –  Capturing physical and logical structures, behavior, interaction
      with the environment, interoperability with other systems

Characterizing Changing Operational Contexts
   –  Deeper understanding of warfighter needs, directly
      gathering operational data, better understanding
      operational impacts of alternative designs

Cross-Domain Coupling
   –  Better interchange between “incommensurate” models
   –  Resolving temporal, multi-scale, multi-physics issues
      across engineering disciplines

Data-driven Tradespace Exploration and Analysis
   –  Efficiently generating and evaluating alternative designs,
      evaluating options in multi-dimensional tradespaces

Collaborative Design and Decision Support
   –  Enabling well-informed, low-overhead discussion, analysis, and
      assessment among engineers and decisionmakers OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
ERS PSC,Overview
                       Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-21
ERS Five Tech Enablers
                                PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (1 & 2)



                                  Specifica6on	
  and	
  analysis	
  of	
  a	
  system	
  and	
  its	
  component	
  elements	
  with	
  
      Systems	
  
                                  respect	
  to	
  its	
  physical	
  and	
  logical	
  structures,	
  its	
  behavior	
  over	
  6me,	
  the	
  
      Representa-on	
             physical	
  phenomena	
  generated	
  during	
  opera6on,	
  and	
  its	
  interac6on	
  with	
  the	
  
      and	
  Modeling	
  	
       environment,	
  and	
  interoperability	
  with	
  other	
  systems.	
  



                                  Understanding	
  warfighter	
  needs	
  for	
  capability	
  and	
  adaptability.	
  This	
  includes	
  
                                  gathering	
  data	
  from	
  users	
  directly,	
  instrumenta6on	
  of	
  live	
  and	
  virtual	
  
      Characteriza-on	
           opera6onal	
  environments,	
  systems,	
  and	
  system	
  tests.	
  It	
  also	
  includes	
  
      of	
  Changing	
            mechanisms	
  to	
  exploit	
  the	
  data	
  to	
  (a)	
  iden6fy	
  the	
  range	
  of	
  system	
  
      Opera-onal	
                opera6onal	
  contexts	
  (missions,	
  environments,	
  threats,	
  tac6cs,	
  and	
  ConOps);	
  
      Contexts	
                  (b)	
  beWer	
  inform	
  designers	
  of	
  their	
  implica6ons;	
  and	
  (c)	
  enable	
  engineers,	
  
                                  warfighters	
  and	
  other	
  stakeholders	
  to	
  assess	
  adaptability,	
  sustainability,	
  
                                  affordability	
  and	
  6meliness	
  of	
  alterna6ve	
  system	
  designs	
  




ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-22
                                 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
ERS Five Tech Enablers
                           PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (3,4 & 5)

                           Interchange	
  of	
  informa6on	
  across	
  “incommensurate”	
  models.	
  Models	
  may	
  be	
  
                           incommensurate	
  because	
  of	
  different	
  temporal	
  or	
  physical	
  granularity	
  within	
  a	
  
                           given	
  discipline,	
  mul6-­‐scale/mul6-­‐physics	
  issues	
  across	
  different	
  engineering	
  
    Cross-­‐Domain	
       disciplines,	
  or	
  factors	
  arising	
  from	
  differences	
  in	
  intended	
  audience,	
  e.g.,	
  
    Coupling	
             abstrac6ng	
  a	
  slower-­‐than-­‐real-­‐6me	
  engineering	
  model	
  to	
  drive	
  a	
  real-­‐6me	
  gaming	
  
                           system	
  for	
  end	
  users.	
  Cross-­‐Domain	
  Coupling	
  thus	
  subsumes	
  work	
  on	
  
                           interoperability,	
  conversion,	
  abstrac6on,	
  summariza6on,	
  and	
  capturing	
  
                           assump6ons.	
  

                           Managing	
  the	
  complex	
  space	
  of	
  poten6al	
  designs	
  and	
  their	
  tradeoffs.	
  Included	
  are:	
  
    Data-­‐driven	
        •  Tools	
  for	
  genera6ng	
  alterna6ve	
  designs	
  and	
  conduc6ng	
  tradespace	
  analysis	
  
    Tradespace	
           •  Algorithms	
  for	
  selec6ve	
  search	
  
    Explora-on	
           •  Tools	
  for	
  performing	
  cost-­‐	
  and	
  6me-­‐	
  sensi6ve	
  design	
  of	
  experiments,	
  and	
  
    and	
  Analysis	
         planning	
  of	
  engineering	
  ac6vi6es	
  to	
  efficiently	
  assess	
  and	
  quan6fy	
  uncertainty	
  
                           •  Tools	
  for	
  evalua6ng	
  results	
  

    Collabora-ve	
         Tools,	
  methods,	
  processes	
  and	
  environments	
  that	
  allow	
  engineers,	
  warfighters,	
  
    Design	
  	
  &	
      and	
  other	
  stakeholders	
  to	
  share	
  and	
  discuss	
  design	
  choices.	
  This	
  spans	
  human-­‐
    Decision	
             system	
  interac6on,	
  collabora6on	
  technology,	
  visualiza6on,	
  virtual	
  environments,	
  
    Support	
              and	
  decision	
  support.	
  

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-23
                               Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Engineered Resilient Systems:
                           Organizational Ranges of Interest




Future


                                                                                                    DARPA
                                                                                           Army

                                                                              Air Force
                                                                   Navy

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-24
                               Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Technology Development:
                           Progression of Capability Goals
        Technology                      3 Yr                       5 Yr                           7 Yr                        10 Yr
                              Improved and accessible
                                                          An approved common
                              tools linking concept                                    Demonstrate ability to          Demonstrate ability to
                                                          framework for system
    System Modeling           design with physical and
                                                          modeling using a
                                                                                       model an CWS , 90%              model an CWS*, 95%
                              electrical system                                        realism of subsystems           realism of subsystems
                                                          variety of tools
                              modeling
                              Cross-scale and some        Ability to model multi-
                                                                                       Full CWS modeled across         CWS* modeled fully
                              interoperability            scale across physical,
    Cross-Domain              demonstrated for            electrical, & compute
                                                                                       domains, sufficient to          across domains, include
    Coupling                                                                           perform system trades           materials, fluids,
                              physical, electrical, and   domains, for both
                                                                                       informed by virtual analyses    chemistry, etc.
                              computational domains       eng. & ops analyses
                              Incorporate system          Ability to evaluate          Ability to evaluate and trade
    Characterizing the                                                                                                 Assessment of CWS*
                              model into realistic        varying KPP’s of             performance characteristics
                                                                                                                       system in military
    Changing                  synthetic environment for   system in synthetic          in synthetic environment
                                                                                                                       relevant contexts using
    Environment               user feedback and data      environment for user         across multiple conditions
                                                                                                                       synthetic environments
                              on system utility           feedback                     and ConOps
                              Automated SWaP              Vulnerability analyses       Automated analysis of
    Tradespace                                                                                                         Automated trades
                              measurements for multi-     of timeliness, reliability   mean time between
                                                                                                                       analysis under wide
    Development and           domain systems              & malicious tampering        failures, reliability, and
                                                                                                                       range of conditions, for
    Analysis                  (physical, electrical,      for multiple options in      functionality under attack or
                                                                                                                       realistic CWS* system
                              software).                  complex systems              degradation
                                                                                                                       Computational/physical
                                                          Multi-user , multi-          3-D visualizations, realistic
    Collaborative             Reference framework &                                                                    models bridged by 3D
                                                          design, multi-context        conops for evaluation and
                              environment for                                                                          printing; data-driven
    Design and                distributed system
                                                          system evaluations in        training, virtual reality
                                                                                                                       CWS* trade decisions
    Decision Support                                      synthetic                    experience for CWS*
                              modeling                                                                                 enabled, executed and
                                                          environments                 system
                                                                                                                       recorded by ERS

ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-25
                                Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011,= Complex#Weapons System
                                                                                                    * CWS SR Case 12-S-0260 applies.
ERS Roadmap:
                           Relation of Capabilities to Metrics
                                 Engaging DoD, Academic & Industry R&D Initiatives

                           Measure                       3 Yr                 5 Yr                 7 Yr                10 Yr

     Adaptability of Design
     Percentage of original system adapted
     or modified in response to new                   10%                   25%                  35%                  50%
     missions




     Speed of Design Solution
     Response time improvement, relative
     to baseline time for fixed time upgrade
                                                       1.5x                   2x                   4x                  12x

     Informed Design: Breadth
     Percentage of system “informed” by
     models and trades that include
     CONOPs and environment exploration
                                                      25%                   75%                  90%                  95%
     of potential Fielded Systems



             Model- and Platform-based engineering enables both
                   alternative exploration and adaptability
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-26
                                 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR CWS = Moderately Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
                                                                                            * on 10/31/2011, SR Complex Weapons System
43 Currently Identified Related Programs
                                          Across DoD
•  Army                                                              •  Naval Research
     1.  C4ISR On the Move -- CERDEC                                   1.  Formal design analysis, NRL
     2.  Institute for Maneuverability and Terrain Physics (IMTPS)     2.  Sensor system platform
     3.  Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) University          3.  Future Immersive Training Environment (FITE), Navy JCTD
          Affiliated Research Center (UARC)                            4.  Basic Research on Tradeoff Analysis, Behavioral Economics, Navy
     4.  MATREX (Modeling Architecture for Technology, Research        5.  PSU ARL Tradespace Tools
          and EXperimentation) -- RDECOM
                                                                       6.  Night Vision Integrated Performance Model
     5.  Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) -- SMDC
                                                                       7.  Unmanned Systems Cross-Functional Team
     6.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics -- AMRDEC
                                                                       8.  Architectures, Interfaces, and Modular Systems (AIMS)
     7.  GEOTACS --ERDC
                                                                       9.  NSWC Dahlgren Strategic and Weapon Control Systems Dept
     8.  DEFeat of Emerging Adaptive Threats
                                                                       10. Platform Optimization Tools
     9.  Safe Operations of Unmanned systems for
          Reconnaissance in Complex Environments (SOURCE)              11. Command & Control Rapid Prototype Capability (C2RPC)
          Army Technology Objective                                    12. Virtual World Exploration & Application Program
     10.  Quick Reaction and Battle Command Support Division,          13. ONR 331 M&S for System Optimization for the All Electric Warship
          CERDEC                                                       14. Electric Ship R&D Consortium
     11.  Concepting, Analysis, Systems Simulation & Integration     •  Air Force
          (CASSI) Future Combat Systems (FCS) Mounted Combat           1.  Network Systems and Mathematics
          System (MCS) -- TARDEC
                                                                       2.  Measurement-Based Systems Verification
     12.  CASSI TARDEC
                                                                       3.  Trusted Silicon Stratus, AFRL/RIT
     13.  AMRDEC Prototype Integration Facilty
                                                                       4.  CREATE-AV
•  DARPA                                                               5.  Service Oriented Architecture for Command and Control
     1.  META: Adaptable Low Cost Sensors; FANG: Fast,                 6.  Condition-based Maintenance
         Adaptable, Next Generation Ground Combat Vehicle; iFAB        7.  Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise
     2.  M-GRIN: Manufacturable Gradient Index Optics                  8.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics
     3.  IRIS: Integrity and Reliability of Integrated Circuits        9.  INVENT System Integration Facility: Robust Electrical Power
                                                                           System; High Performance Electric Actuation System; Adaptive
     4.  Open Manufacturing                                                Power & Thermal Maanagement System
•  OSD                                                                 10. Architecture Modeling and Analysis for Complex Systems, AFRL/
     1.  Systems 2020                                                      RY
     2.  Systems Engineering Research Center
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-27
                                 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
Issues in Building an Engineered
                           Resilient Systems S&T Community

    •  Complex integration across many technologies:
               –  Interdisciplinary across air, land, sea for electromechanical systems
                  with embedded control computational capabilities
               –  Spans the engineering lifecycle: Concept engineering and analysis,
                  Design & Prototyping, Development, Production, Sustainment
               –  New tools, methods, paradigms:
                  Linking engineers, decisionmakers, other stakeholders
               –  Addressing product robustness, engineers’ productivity,
                  and systemic retention of options

    •  Nascent, emerging ties to basic science, e.g.:
               –  Computational Approximate Representations:
                  Can’t get all engineering tools talking same language
               –  Mathematics and Computational Science of Complexity:
                  Can’t look at every engineering issue, need aids to determine focus
               –  Mathematics and Cognitive Science of Risk, Sensitivity, and Confidence:
                  Need decision aids for understanding implications of trades, committing $
ERS PSC,Overview
31 Octoberr 2011 Page-28
                              Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.

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Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011

  • 1. Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) S&T Priority Description and Roadmap Dr. Robert Neches ERS PSC Lead Director, Advanced Engineering Initiatives, ODASD SE Robert.Neches@osd.mil 31 October 2011 ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-1 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 2. Engineered Resilient Systems Spans the Systems Life cycle Resilience: Effective in a wide range of situations, readily adaptable to others through reconfiguration or replacement, with graceful and detectable degradation of function 1 - Affordable via faster eng., less rework 2 - Effective via better informed design decision making 3 - Adaptable through design & test for wider range of mission contexts Uncertain futures, and resultant mission volatility, require affordably adaptable and effective systems – done quickly ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-2 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 3. The Problem Goes Beyond Process: Need New Technologies, Broader Community Rapidly  necks  down  alterna&ves   Decisions  made  w/o  info   50  years  of   process  reforms   Compe-ng   designs   Rqmts2   haven’t  controlled   AoA   Redesign   &me,  cost  and   Eng.  design   Risk  reduc-on   Compete  LRIP   Rqmts1   T&E   Etc. performance   T&E   Sequen&al  and  slow   Informa&on  lost  at  every  step   Ad  hoc  reqmts  refinement   Fast, easy, inexpensive up-front engineering: •  Automatically consider many variations •  Propagate changes, maintain constraints •  Introduce and evaluate many usage scenarios •  Explore technical & operational tradeoffs •  Iteratively refine requirements •  Adapt and build in adaptivity •  Learn and update ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-3 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 4. Engineered Resilient Systems: Needs and Technology Issues Creating & fielding affordable, effective systems entails: •  Deep trade-off analyses across mission contexts •  Adaptability, effectiveness and affordability in the trade-space •  Maintained for life •  More informative requirements •  Well-founded requirements refinement •  More alternatives, maintained longer Doing so quickly and adaptably requires new technology: •  Models with representational richness •  Learning about operational context •  Uncertainty- and Risk- based tools Starting point: Model- and Platform- based engineering ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-4 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 5. System Representation and Modeling: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps Capturing   •  Combining  live  and  virtual  worlds     •  Physical  and   •  Bi-­‐direc6onal  linking  of  physics-­‐based    &   logical  structures   Model  95%   sta6s6cal  models   of  a  complex   •  Behavior   •  Key  mul6disciplinary,  mul6scale  models   weapons   •  Interac&on  with   system   •  Automated  and  semi-­‐automated     the  environment   acquisi6on  techniques   and  other   systems   •  Techniques  for  adaptable  models   We need to create and manage many classes (executable, depictional, statistical...) and many types (device and environmental physics, comms, sensors, effectors, software, systems ...) of models ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-5 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 6. Characterizing Changing Operational Environments: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Learning  from  live  and  virtual   Deeper   opera6onal  systems   understanding  of   warfighter  needs   •  Synthe6c  environments  for   Military   experimenta6on  and  learning   Directly  gathering   Effec-veness   •  Crea6ng  opera6onal  context  models   opera&onal  data   Breadth   (missions,  environments,  threats,   Assessment   tac6cs,  and  ConOps)   Understanding     Capability   opera&onal   •  Genera6ng  meaningful  tests  and  use   impacts  of   cases  from  opera6onal  data   alterna&ves   •  Synthesis  &  applica6on  of  models   ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-6 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 7. Cross-Domain Coupling: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Dynamic  modeling/analysis  workflow   BeHer   interchange   •  Consistency  across  hybrid  models   between   incommensurate   Weapons   •  Automa6cally  generated  surrogates   models   system   modeled     •  Seman6c  mappings  and  repairs   fully   Resolving   across   •  Program  interface  extensions  that:   temporal,   domains   •  Automate  parameteriza6on     mul&-­‐scale,   and  boundary  condi6ons   mul&-­‐physics   •  Coordinate  cross-­‐phenomena  simula6ons   issues   •  Tie  to  decision  support   •  Couple  to  virtual  worlds   Making the wide range of model classes and types work together effectively requires new computing techniques (not just standards) ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-7 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 8. Tradespace Analysis: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Guided  automated  searches,  selec6ve  search  algorithms   Efficiently   genera&ng   •  Ubiquitous  compu6ng  for  genera6ng/evalua6ng  op6ons   and   evalua&ng   •  Iden6fying  high-­‐impact  variables  and  likely  interac6ons   Trade   alterna&ve   analyses   •  New  sensi6vity  localiza6on  algorithms   designs   over  very   large   •  Algorithms  for  measuring  adaptability   Evalua&ng   condi-on   •  Risk-­‐based  cost-­‐benefit  analysis  tools,  presenta6ons   op&ons  in   sets   mul&-­‐ •  Integra6ng  reliability  and  cost  into  acquisi6on  decisions   dimensional   tradespaces   •  Cost-­‐and  6me-­‐sensi6ve  uncertainty  management  via   experimental  design    and  ac6vity  planning   Exploring more options and keeping them open longer, by managing complexity and leveraging greater computational testing capabilities ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-8 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 9. Collaborative Design & Decision Support: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Usable  mul6-­‐dimensional  tradespaces   Computa-onal   •  Ra6onale  capture   Well-­‐ /  physical   informed,     models  bridged   •  Aids  for  priori6zing  tradeoffs,     low-­‐ by  3D  prin-ng   explaining  decisions   overhead   collabora&ve   Data-­‐driven   •  Accessible  systems  engineering,   acquisi6on,  physics  and  behavioral  models   decision   trade  decisions   making     executed  and   •  Access  controls   recorded   •  Informa6on  push-­‐pull  without  flooding   ERS requires the transparency for many stakeholders to be able to understand and contribute, with low overhead for participating ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-9 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 10.  What Constitutes Success? Adaptable (and thus robust) designs –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust –  Target: 50% of system is modifiable to new mission Faster, more efficient engineering iterations –  Virtual design – integrating 3D geometry, electronics, software –  Find problems early: –  Shorter risk reduction phases with prototypes –  Fewer, easier redesigns –  Accelerated design/test/build cycles –  Target: 12x speed-up in development time Decisions informed by mission needs –  More options considered deeply, broader trade space analysis –  Interaction and iterative design among collaborative groups –  Ability to simulate & experiment in synthetic operational environments –  Target: 95% of system informed by trades across ConOps/env. ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-10 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 11. Opportunities to Participate DoD Needs Innovative Tools and Algorithms from Industry and Academia Organization   BAA Title   Closing Date   Reference #   ONR Energetic Materials Program R&D 23-Dec-11 12-SN-0001 Dept of Army Adaptive Vehicle Management System (AVMS) Phase II 6-Jan-12 W911W6-11-R-0013 BAA Reconnaissance and Surveillance payloads, sensors, NAWC Lakehurst 14-Feb-12 N68335-11-R-0018 delivery systems and platforms NAVFAC BAA Expeditionary technologies 2-Mar-12 BAA-09-03-RIKA US Army USACE 2011 BAA 31-Mar-12 W912HZ-11-BAA-02 NRL NRL-Wide BAA 16-Jun-12 BAA-N00173-01 US Army RDECOM- Technology Focused Areas of Interest BAA 15-Sep-12 W15QKN-10-R-0513 ARDEC W911NF-07-R-0003-04 ARL Basic and Applied Scientific Research 31-Dec-12 & -0001-05 Dept of Army Army Rapid Innovation Fund BAA 29-Sep-12 W911NF11R0017 ONR BAA, Navy and Marine Corp S&T 30-Sep-12 ONR 12-002 NASC Training Sys R&D for Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office 4-Dec-12 N61339-08-R-0013 Div AFRL Kirtland STRIVE BAA Draft Posted FA945311R0285 WHS DoD Rapid Innovation Fund n/a HQ0034-RIF-11-BAA-0001 Reasoning, Comprehension, Perception and Anticipation AFRL WPAFB n/a BAA-10-03-RIKA in Multi-Domain Environments AFRL Rome Emerging Computing Technology and Applications n/a BAA-09-08-RIKA AFRL Rome Cross Domain Innovative Technologies n/a BAA-10-09-RIKA AFRL Rome Computing Architecture Technologies BAA n/a BAA-09-03-RIKA Subject to Presidential WHS Systems 2020 n/a Budget Approval ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-11 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 12. Envisioned End State Improved Engineering and Design Capabilities •  More environmental and mission context •  More alternatives developed, evaluated and maintained •  Better trades: managing interactions, choices, consequences Improved Systems Improved Engineering •  Highly effective: Processes better performance, greater mission effectiveness •  Fewer rework cycles •  Easier to adapt, •  Faster cycle completion reconfigure or replace •  Better managed •  Confidence in graceful requirements shifts degradation of function PoC: Dr. Robert Neches, Robert.Neches@osd.mil ODASD(SE), Rm 3C160, 3040 Defense Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301 ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-12 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 13. BACK-UPS ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-13 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 14. Engineered Resilient Systems S&T Priority Steering Council AF - Ken Barker, Bill Nolte Supporting: G. Richard Freeman, Ed Kraft, Sean Coghlan, Kenny Littlejohn, Bob Bonneau, Ernie Haendschke, Mark Longbrake, Dale Burnham, Al Thomas Army - Jeffery Holland, Kevin Flamm, Elizabeth Burg, Nikki Goerger Supporting: Dave Horner, Dave Richards, Elias Rigas, Rob Wallace, Robert King, Chris Gaughan, Dana Trzeciak, Lester Strauch Navy - Bobby Junker, Wen Masters Supporting: John Tangney, John Pazik, Terry Ericsen, Ralph Wachter (now detailed to NSF), Connie Heitmeyer, Lynn Ewart-Paine, Bill Nickerson Bob Pohanka DARPA - Chris Earl OSD – Robert Neches ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-14 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 15. Engineered Resilient Systems Mission volatility and uncertain futures Adaptability necessitate   Reflected in # of affordably adaptations possible vs Systems Modeling adaptable & new build   95% coverage of systems and sub- effective Speed of solution system designs systems   Relativeto current Characterization of Changing   Adaptable through baselines, with many Operational Contexts reconfiguration or more trades & recourses   Ability to assess effectiveness of replacement concepts across changing missions, considered threats, environments   Affordable from being designed, Informed Designs Cross-domain Coupling of Models evaluated, built, and   %system design that has   Broad interoperation across tested faster, with included exploration of disciplines, scales, fidelity levels fewer design cycles engineering trades, cost, Data-driven Tradespace Analysis   Effective through schedule, CONOPS and   Ability to analyze millions of trades, engineering assess sensitivities & risks informed by data- environmental variations driven evaluations Collaborative Design & Decision of options and Support recourses   Ability to speed decision processes ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-15 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 16. Engineered Resilient Systems: Where the Work’s Headed Present Future Leveraging Knowledge and Data to Reduce Risk Retaining Knowledge & Recourses to Increase Adaptability ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-16 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 17. Example Engineering Shortfalls: Challenges and Opportunities •  Dynamic threats and missions outstripping our ability to specify, design and build responsive systems (IEDs, electronic warfare) •  New concepts of operations not discovered until late in design, or until operational test (Longbow lock-on after launch) •  “Small” engineering changes with unintended consequences (F18) •  Suboptimal trades in performance, reliability, maintainability, affordability, schedule (MRAP, FCS) F/A-­‐18  System  Level  Drawing   •  Late discovery of defects (ACS sensors) •  Mismatched engineering tools (787) •  Persistent reliability/availability shortfalls exacerbated by untrusted components Shortfalls point to significant research challenges to improve engineering productivity ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-17 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 18. Driving Applications Producing New Questions for Next-Gen Engineers •  Air Maneuver •  Ground Vehicles •  Upgrades & Life Cycle Extension •  Electric Ships •  Propulsion and •  New Systems Energy Systems •  How many operational concepts can this support? •  What’s the tradeoff between features and diversity? •  What are my options, trading capability vs. delivery time? •  What’re my adequate interim options? •  If the changing environment invalidates investments, how do we recover? ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-18 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 19. Engineered Resilient Systems: “Requirements” ERS products are engineering tools, methodologies, paradigms that link: •  Conception, design, engineering, prototyping, testing, production, field usage and adaptation •  Engineers, warfighters, industry and other stakeholders •  Adaptable (and thus robust) designs –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability How Do We Get... –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust Robustness •  Faster, more efficient design iterations –  Virtual design, in 3D geometry, electronics, and software combined Efficiency –  Find problems early: –  Reduced risk reduction phases with prototypes Options –  Fewer and easier redesigns –  Accelerated design/test/build cycles •  Decisions informed by mission needs –  More options considered deeply, broader trade space analyses –  Interaction and iterative design in context among collaborative groups –  Ability to simulate and experiment in synthetic operational environments ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-19 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 20. Emerging Key Concepts Model-based engineering + Open architectures, advanced mathematics + User feedback on computational prototyping + Collaborative environment for all phases, all stakeholders + Deeper tradespace / alternatives analysis + Engineering capability enhanced by data, tools, advanced evaluation methods in both live and test environments + “Mission utility breadth” as an alternative to point design requirements + Reduced engineering time from intelligent test scheduling + Speed and flexibility gains of rapid manufacturing = Robust systems, efficient engineering, options against uncertain futures ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-20 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 21. Engineered Resilient Systems Key Technical Thrust Areas Systems Representation and Modeling –  Capturing physical and logical structures, behavior, interaction with the environment, interoperability with other systems Characterizing Changing Operational Contexts –  Deeper understanding of warfighter needs, directly gathering operational data, better understanding operational impacts of alternative designs Cross-Domain Coupling –  Better interchange between “incommensurate” models –  Resolving temporal, multi-scale, multi-physics issues across engineering disciplines Data-driven Tradespace Exploration and Analysis –  Efficiently generating and evaluating alternative designs, evaluating options in multi-dimensional tradespaces Collaborative Design and Decision Support –  Enabling well-informed, low-overhead discussion, analysis, and assessment among engineers and decisionmakers OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies. ERS PSC,Overview Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-21
  • 22. ERS Five Tech Enablers PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (1 & 2) Specifica6on  and  analysis  of  a  system  and  its  component  elements  with   Systems   respect  to  its  physical  and  logical  structures,  its  behavior  over  6me,  the   Representa-on   physical  phenomena  generated  during  opera6on,  and  its  interac6on  with  the   and  Modeling     environment,  and  interoperability  with  other  systems.   Understanding  warfighter  needs  for  capability  and  adaptability.  This  includes   gathering  data  from  users  directly,  instrumenta6on  of  live  and  virtual   Characteriza-on   opera6onal  environments,  systems,  and  system  tests.  It  also  includes   of  Changing   mechanisms  to  exploit  the  data  to  (a)  iden6fy  the  range  of  system   Opera-onal   opera6onal  contexts  (missions,  environments,  threats,  tac6cs,  and  ConOps);   Contexts   (b)  beWer  inform  designers  of  their  implica6ons;  and  (c)  enable  engineers,   warfighters  and  other  stakeholders  to  assess  adaptability,  sustainability,   affordability  and  6meliness  of  alterna6ve  system  designs   ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-22 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 23. ERS Five Tech Enablers PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (3,4 & 5) Interchange  of  informa6on  across  “incommensurate”  models.  Models  may  be   incommensurate  because  of  different  temporal  or  physical  granularity  within  a   given  discipline,  mul6-­‐scale/mul6-­‐physics  issues  across  different  engineering   Cross-­‐Domain   disciplines,  or  factors  arising  from  differences  in  intended  audience,  e.g.,   Coupling   abstrac6ng  a  slower-­‐than-­‐real-­‐6me  engineering  model  to  drive  a  real-­‐6me  gaming   system  for  end  users.  Cross-­‐Domain  Coupling  thus  subsumes  work  on   interoperability,  conversion,  abstrac6on,  summariza6on,  and  capturing   assump6ons.   Managing  the  complex  space  of  poten6al  designs  and  their  tradeoffs.  Included  are:   Data-­‐driven   •  Tools  for  genera6ng  alterna6ve  designs  and  conduc6ng  tradespace  analysis   Tradespace   •  Algorithms  for  selec6ve  search   Explora-on   •  Tools  for  performing  cost-­‐  and  6me-­‐  sensi6ve  design  of  experiments,  and   and  Analysis   planning  of  engineering  ac6vi6es  to  efficiently  assess  and  quan6fy  uncertainty   •  Tools  for  evalua6ng  results   Collabora-ve   Tools,  methods,  processes  and  environments  that  allow  engineers,  warfighters,   Design    &   and  other  stakeholders  to  share  and  discuss  design  choices.  This  spans  human-­‐ Decision   system  interac6on,  collabora6on  technology,  visualiza6on,  virtual  environments,   Support   and  decision  support.   ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-23 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 24. Engineered Resilient Systems: Organizational Ranges of Interest Future DARPA Army Air Force Navy ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-24 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 25. Technology Development: Progression of Capability Goals Technology 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr Improved and accessible An approved common tools linking concept Demonstrate ability to Demonstrate ability to framework for system System Modeling design with physical and modeling using a model an CWS , 90% model an CWS*, 95% electrical system realism of subsystems realism of subsystems variety of tools modeling Cross-scale and some Ability to model multi- Full CWS modeled across CWS* modeled fully interoperability scale across physical, Cross-Domain demonstrated for electrical, & compute domains, sufficient to across domains, include Coupling perform system trades materials, fluids, physical, electrical, and domains, for both informed by virtual analyses chemistry, etc. computational domains eng. & ops analyses Incorporate system Ability to evaluate Ability to evaluate and trade Characterizing the Assessment of CWS* model into realistic varying KPP’s of performance characteristics system in military Changing synthetic environment for system in synthetic in synthetic environment relevant contexts using Environment user feedback and data environment for user across multiple conditions synthetic environments on system utility feedback and ConOps Automated SWaP Vulnerability analyses Automated analysis of Tradespace Automated trades measurements for multi- of timeliness, reliability mean time between analysis under wide Development and domain systems & malicious tampering failures, reliability, and range of conditions, for Analysis (physical, electrical, for multiple options in functionality under attack or realistic CWS* system software). complex systems degradation Computational/physical Multi-user , multi- 3-D visualizations, realistic Collaborative Reference framework & models bridged by 3D design, multi-context conops for evaluation and environment for printing; data-driven Design and distributed system system evaluations in training, virtual reality CWS* trade decisions Decision Support synthetic experience for CWS* modeling enabled, executed and environments system recorded by ERS ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-25 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011,= Complex#Weapons System * CWS SR Case 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 26. ERS Roadmap: Relation of Capabilities to Metrics Engaging DoD, Academic & Industry R&D Initiatives Measure 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr Adaptability of Design Percentage of original system adapted or modified in response to new 10% 25% 35% 50% missions Speed of Design Solution Response time improvement, relative to baseline time for fixed time upgrade 1.5x 2x 4x 12x Informed Design: Breadth Percentage of system “informed” by models and trades that include CONOPs and environment exploration 25% 75% 90% 95% of potential Fielded Systems Model- and Platform-based engineering enables both alternative exploration and adaptability ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-26 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR CWS = Moderately Case # 12-S-0260 applies. * on 10/31/2011, SR Complex Weapons System
  • 27. 43 Currently Identified Related Programs Across DoD •  Army •  Naval Research 1.  C4ISR On the Move -- CERDEC 1.  Formal design analysis, NRL 2.  Institute for Maneuverability and Terrain Physics (IMTPS) 2.  Sensor system platform 3.  Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) University 3.  Future Immersive Training Environment (FITE), Navy JCTD Affiliated Research Center (UARC) 4.  Basic Research on Tradeoff Analysis, Behavioral Economics, Navy 4.  MATREX (Modeling Architecture for Technology, Research 5.  PSU ARL Tradespace Tools and EXperimentation) -- RDECOM 6.  Night Vision Integrated Performance Model 5.  Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) -- SMDC 7.  Unmanned Systems Cross-Functional Team 6.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics -- AMRDEC 8.  Architectures, Interfaces, and Modular Systems (AIMS) 7.  GEOTACS --ERDC 9.  NSWC Dahlgren Strategic and Weapon Control Systems Dept 8.  DEFeat of Emerging Adaptive Threats 10. Platform Optimization Tools 9.  Safe Operations of Unmanned systems for Reconnaissance in Complex Environments (SOURCE) 11. Command & Control Rapid Prototype Capability (C2RPC) Army Technology Objective 12. Virtual World Exploration & Application Program 10.  Quick Reaction and Battle Command Support Division, 13. ONR 331 M&S for System Optimization for the All Electric Warship CERDEC 14. Electric Ship R&D Consortium 11.  Concepting, Analysis, Systems Simulation & Integration •  Air Force (CASSI) Future Combat Systems (FCS) Mounted Combat 1.  Network Systems and Mathematics System (MCS) -- TARDEC 2.  Measurement-Based Systems Verification 12.  CASSI TARDEC 3.  Trusted Silicon Stratus, AFRL/RIT 13.  AMRDEC Prototype Integration Facilty 4.  CREATE-AV •  DARPA 5.  Service Oriented Architecture for Command and Control 1.  META: Adaptable Low Cost Sensors; FANG: Fast, 6.  Condition-based Maintenance Adaptable, Next Generation Ground Combat Vehicle; iFAB 7.  Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise 2.  M-GRIN: Manufacturable Gradient Index Optics 8.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics 3.  IRIS: Integrity and Reliability of Integrated Circuits 9.  INVENT System Integration Facility: Robust Electrical Power System; High Performance Electric Actuation System; Adaptive 4.  Open Manufacturing Power & Thermal Maanagement System •  OSD 10. Architecture Modeling and Analysis for Complex Systems, AFRL/ 1.  Systems 2020 RY 2.  Systems Engineering Research Center ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-27 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 28. Issues in Building an Engineered Resilient Systems S&T Community •  Complex integration across many technologies: –  Interdisciplinary across air, land, sea for electromechanical systems with embedded control computational capabilities –  Spans the engineering lifecycle: Concept engineering and analysis, Design & Prototyping, Development, Production, Sustainment –  New tools, methods, paradigms: Linking engineers, decisionmakers, other stakeholders –  Addressing product robustness, engineers’ productivity, and systemic retention of options •  Nascent, emerging ties to basic science, e.g.: –  Computational Approximate Representations: Can’t get all engineering tools talking same language –  Mathematics and Computational Science of Complexity: Can’t look at every engineering issue, need aids to determine focus –  Mathematics and Cognitive Science of Risk, Sensitivity, and Confidence: Need decision aids for understanding implications of trades, committing $ ERS PSC,Overview 31 Octoberr 2011 Page-28 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.