SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 120
The Indian Institute of
Financial Planning
Technical Analysis
A Project Report
Submitted By
Shraddha Singh
MBA – 6A
Acknowledgement
I would like to express my special thanks of
gratitude to my professor (Mr. Amit Bagga)
(CA) as well as our Director (Mr. Niamatulla)
who gave me the golden opportunity to do
this wonderful project on the topic
(Technical Analysis), which also helped me
in doing a lot of Research and I came to
know about so many new things I am really
thankful to them.
Secondly I would also like to thank other
faculty member for their moral support & my
parents and friends who helped me a lot in
finalizing this project within the limited time
frame.
Shraddha Singh
MBA-6A
The Indian Institute of Financial Planning
Declaration
I Shraddha Singh hereby declares that
the work entitled “Technical Analysis” is
my original work. I have not copied from
any other students’ work or from any other
sources except where due reference or
acknowledgement is made explicitly in the
text, nor has any part been written for me
by another person.
Shraddha Singh
MBA-6A
Table of Content
Introduction to Technical Analysis
Dow Theory
Charts
Candlesticks
Support And Resistance
Chart Patterns
Technical Indicator
Moving Averages
Relative Strength Index
MACD
Stochastic
Fibonacci Ratios
Elliot Waves
Bibliography
1.Introduction to Technical
Analysis
Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future
financial price movements based on an
examination of past price movements. Like
weather forecasting, technical analysis does
not result in absolute predictions about the
future. Instead, technical analysis can help
investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen
to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a
wide variety of charts that show price over
time.
Technical analysis is applicable to stocks,
indices, commodities, futures or any tradable
instrument where the price is influenced by
the forces of supply and demand. Price refers
to any combination of the open, high, low, or
close for a given security over a specific time
frame. The time frame can be based on
intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-
minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly
or monthly price data and last a few hours or
many years. In addition, some technical
analysts include volume or open interest
figures with their study of price action.
In finance, technical analysis is a security
analysis methodology for forecasting the direction
of prices through the study of past market data,
primarily price and volume. Behavioral
economics and quantitative analysis use many of
the same tools of technical analysis, which, being
an aspect of active management, stands in
contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory.
The efficacy of both technical and fundamental
analysis is disputed by the efficient-market
hypothesis which states that stock market prices
are essentially unpredictable.
The technical analysis is an art to identify, a
trend reversal at a relatively early stage and
ride on that trend until the weight of the
evidence shows or proves that the trend has
reversed.
2. Dow Theory
The Dow theory was developed by William P.
Hamilton, Robert Rhea, and E. George
Schaefer from the work of Charles H. Dow,
who was the founder and first editor of the
Wall Street Journal and the co-founder of Dow
Jones and Company, from which we still
today have the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The Dow Theory forms the basis of technical
analysis, in which investment decisions are
made on the basis of trends in the stock chart
as opposed to qualities of the underlying
company or the stock price.
In short, the Dow Theory says the market is
trending upwards when both the Dow Jones
Industrial Index and the Dow Jones
Transportation Index exceed a previous,
important high. Similarly, the market is
trending downwards when both averages fall
below previous lows. Technical investors seek
to invest with the primary trend, not against it,
i.e., buying during upward trends and selling
during downward trends.
The Dow Theory has six basic assumptions.
The market discounts all news, that is, all
of the news on a given company is
already priced into the stock.
The market has three main trends: the
primary trend (the overriding trend of the
market), the secondary trend (a smaller
correction of the primary trend), and the
minor trend (a correction of the secondary
trend). Investors shouldn't confuse a
secondary trend (a correction) with the
primary trend.
Every primary trend has three phases. In
a bull market, the phases are the
accumulation phase (when informed
investors get involved after a bear
market), the public participation phase,
and the excess phase (when prices are
run up). In a bear market, the phases are
the distribution phase (when informed
investors get out after a bull market), the
public participation phase, and the panic
phase. Accumulation phases and
distribution phases are the most difficult to
see, but also the most rewarding.
The switch from a bear market primary
trend to a bull market trend or vice versa
cannot be confirmed until both indexes are
in agreement.
Volume is a secondary indicator to confirm
the market trend. It should go up when
prices are following the trend and go down
when prices are going against the trend.
3. Price Charts
A chart is simply a graphical representation of
a series of prices over a set time frame. For
example, a chart may show a stock's price
movement over a one-year period, where
each point on the graph represents
the closing price for each day the stock is
traded.
Chart Properties
1. The Time Scale
The time scale refers to the range of dates at
the bottom of the chart, which can vary from
decades to seconds. The most frequently
used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly,
monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter
the time frame, the more detailed the chart.
Each data point can represent the closing
price of the period or show the open, the high,
the low and the close depending on the chart
used.
Daily charts are comprised of a series of price
movements in which each price point on the
chart is a full day's trading condensed into
one point. Again, each point on the graph can
be simply the closing price or can entail the
open, high, low and close for the stock over
the day. These data points are spread out
over weekly, monthly and even yearly time
scales to monitor both short-term and
intermediate trends in price movement.
Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts
are used to analyze longer term trends in the
movement of a stock's price. Each data point
in these graphs will be a condensed version of
what happened over the specified period. So
for a weekly chart, each data point will be a
representation of the price movement of the
week
2. The Price Scale and Price Point Properties
The price scale is on the right-hand side of the
chart. It shows a stock's current price and
compares it to past data points. This may
seem like a simple concept in that the price
scale goes from lower prices to higher prices
as you move along the scale from the bottom
to the top.
Charts Types
There are four main types of charts that are
used by investors and traders depending on
the information that they are seeking and their
individual skill levels. The chart types are: the
line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart
and the point and figure chart
1. Line Chart
Line chart is the most basic and simplest type
of stock charts that are used in technical
analysis. The line chart is also called a close-
only chart as it plots the closing price of the
underlying security, with a line connecting the
dots formed by the close price. In a line chart
the price data for the underlying security is
plotted on a graph with the time plotted from
left to right along the horizontal axis, or the x-
axis and price levels plotted from the bottom
up along the vertical axis, or the y-axis. The
price data used in line charts is usually the
close price of the underlying security. The
uncluttered simplicity of the line chart is its
greatest strength as it provides a clean, easily
recognizable, visual display of the price
movement. This makes it an ideal tool for use
in identifying the dominant support and
resistance levels, trend lines, and certain
chart patterns. However, the line chart does
not indicate the highs and lows and, hence,
they do not indicate the price range for the
session. Despite this, line charts were the
charting technique favored by Charles Dow
who was only interested in the level at which
the price closed. This, Dow felt, is the most
important price data of the session or trading
period as it determined that period's
unrealized profit or loss.
Fig- Showing The Line Chart
2. Bar Chart
Bar charts are one of the most popular forms
of stock charts and were the most widely used
charts before the introduction of candlestick
charts. Bar charts are drawn on a graph that
plots time on the horizontal axis and price
levels on the vertical axis. These charts
provide much more information than line
charts as they consists of a series of vertical
bars that indicate various price data for each
time-frame on the chart. This data can be
either the open price, the high price, the low
price and the close price, making it an OHLC
bar chart, or the high price, the low price and
the close price, making it an HLC bar chart.
The height of each OHLC and HLC bar
indicates the price range for that period with
the high at the top of the bar and the low at
the bottom of the bar. Each OHLC and HLC
bar has a small horizontal tick to the right of
the bar to indicate the close price for that
period. An OHLC bar will also have a small
horizontal tick to the left of the bar to indicate
the open price for that period. The extra
information is one of the reasons why the
OHLC charts are more popular than HLC
charts. In addition, some charting applications
use colors to indicate bullish or bearishness of
a bar in relation to the close of the previous
bar. This makes the OHLC bar chart quite
similar to the candlestick chart, except that the
OHLC chart does not indicate bullishness or
bearishness of the period of one bar as clearly
as the candlestick chart (the color of an OHLC
bar is always in relation to the close of the
pervious bar rather than the open and close of
the current bar).
Fig Showing Bar Chart (OHLC)
3. Candlesticks Charts
Japanese candlestick charts form the basis of
the oldest form of technical analysis. They
were developed in the 17th century by a
Japanese rice trader named Homma.
Candlestick charts provide the same
information as OHLC bar charts, namely open
price, high price, low price and close price,
however, candlestick charting also provide a
visual indication of market psychology, market
sentiment, and potential weakness, making it
a rather valuable trading tool. Candlesticks
indicate a bullish up bar, when the closing
price is higher than the opening price, using a
light color such as white or green, and a
bearish down bar, when the closing price is
lower than the opening price, using a darker
color such as black or red for the real body of
the candlestick. Thus, on a green candlestick,
the close price will be at the top of the
candlestick real body and the open price at
the bottom as the close price is higher than
the open price; conversely on a red bar the
close price will be at the bottom of the
candlestick real body and the open price at
the top as the close price is lower than the
open price. For both a bullish and a bearish
candlestick, the high price and the low and the
low price for the session will be indicated by
the top and bottom of the thin vertical line
above and below the real body. This vertical
line is called the shadow or the wick.
The shape and color of a candlestick can
change several times during its formation.
Therefore the trader must wait for the
candlestick to be formed completely at the
end of the time-frame to analyze the
candlestick, forcing the trader to wait for the
bar to close.
Fig- Showing Candlesticks Chart On Nifty Daily
4. Candlesticks Patterns
1. Bullish Engulfing
Bullish Engulfing is an important bottom
reversal pattern. It appears after a downtrend.
It's a two candlestick pattern. In this, a large
white candle completely engulfs the preceding
small black candle. Though it is not necessary
for the white candle to engulf the shadows of
the previous black candle, it should engulf the
entire real body. It's an important bullish
reversal signal. Heavy volume on second day
of the pattern creates higher probability of
trend reversal.
Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks
Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern around
460 price level , We will enter this trade around
Rs.470, And exit At 530 where candles are
forming a hanging man patter which is an reversal
pattern.
2. Bearish Engulfing
Bearish Engulfing is one of the important
bearish reversal patterns. It appears after an
uptrend. It's a two candlestick pattern. In this,
a large black candle completely engulfs the
preceding small white candle. Though it is not
necessary for the black candle to engulf the
shadows of the previous white candle, it
should engulf the entire real body. Heavy
volume on second day of the pattern creates
higher probability of trend reversal.
Fig Showing: Bearish Engulfing Candlestick
Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed at
480 price level on 10-feb-2014 . We can short sell
this stock at around Rs.487 and can buy back
around Rs.465, where Bullish Harami pattern is
formed.
3. Bullish Harami
Bullish Harami is a bullish reversal pattern. It
is characterized by a large black candle,
followed by a small white candle. The white
candle is contained completely within the
previous black candle. The pattern appears in
a downtrend. A long black candle is seen,
which is followed by a small white candle,
which is completely engulfed by the previous
day candle. Shadows need not be
compulsorily engulfed, but real body should
be. The market is entering in an indecision or
congestion phase post Bullish Harami.
Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks
Interpretation-Bullish Harami has formed Asian
Paints on 21-Feb-2014 around Rs.460 price levels
we can enter this stock by buying it around
Rs.465.We can continue to hold this positing till
there is a sign of bullish reversal.
4. Bearish Harami
Bearish Harami is a bearish reversal pattern.
It is characterized by a large white candle,
followed by a small black candle. The black
candle is contained completely within the
previous white candle. The pattern appears in
an uptrend. A long white candle is seen,
which is followed by a small black candle,
which is completely engulfed by the previous
day candle. Shadows need not be
compulsorily engulfed, but real body should
be.
Fig Showing Bearish Harami Candlestick
Interpretation- After an uptrend Bearish Harami
formed on Bharti Airtel around Rs.370 after an
confirmation from next candle which shows and
gap down opening. So here we can enter the
market by taking a short position at Rs.360 and
can exit the market around Rs.332 where market
is reversing because of Bullish Harami formation.
5. Hammer
Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which
occurs at the bottom of a trend. This pattern
appears after or during a downtrend. It is a
single candlestick pattern. It resembles with
Bullish Dragonfly Doji. The only difference is
doji has same opening and closing while
Hammer has a small real body at the upper
end. Colour of Hammer is not important.
However, it is considered as more potent, if its
colour is white. Lower shadow of Hammer
should be twice as long as real body. There
should be very little or no upper shadow.
Fig Showing Candlestick Patten: Hammer
Interpretation- 17-Feb-2014- Hammer pattern form
around price level of Rs.1100 , we can enter the
trade at Rs.1100 , And till now we haven’t seen
any trend reversal so we can continue with this
trade, and we can exit this trade as soon as we
seen any sign of trend reversal.
5. Inverted Hammer
Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern.
This pattern is characterized by a long upper
shadow and a small real body, appearing after
a long black real body. This pattern appears in
a downtrend. In this pattern, a long black
candle appears on first day. On second day, a
small real body appears which forms at the
lower end of range. Second day's candle has
upper shadow, which is at least twice as long
as the real body and does not have lower
shadow. Colour of the real body is not of
much importance.
Interpretation- On 3rd Feb there is a inverted
hammer followed by long black candle , inverted
hammer is a bearish reversal patter , so next day’s
white candle shows trend reversal so we can enter
the trade around price level of Rs.470 , we can
exit this trade on 10th of Feb which shows a dark
cloud cover which is a reversal pattern. We can
earn profit of Rs.20 per share if we exit around
Rs.490.
6. Shooting Star
Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern,
appearing at market top. Its a small real body
with long upper shadow and no lower shadow,
which gaps away from the previous candle.
This pattern appears in an uptrend. A white
candle is seen on first day. Next day, gap up
opening happens. This candle appears as a
small real body, with upper shadow at least
twice as long as the real body. It has no lower
shadow. The pattern indicates that the
uptrend is near to an end.
Interpretation- Shooting start is bullish reversal
pattern as it form at the top of the bull market; we
will sell this stock around Rs.66.5 and will exit from
this trade around Rs.61 as it shows bullish
engulfing at the down side.
5. Support and Resistance
Support and resistance represent key
junctures where the forces of supply and
demand meet. In the financial markets, prices
are driven by excessive supply (down) and
demand (up). Supply is synonymous with
bearish, bears and selling. Demand is
synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying.
These terms are used interchangeably
throughout this and other articles. As demand
increases, prices advance and as supply
increases, prices decline. When supply and
demand are equal, prices move sideways as
bulls and bears slug it out for control.
1. Support
Support is the price level at which demand is
thought to be strong enough to prevent the
price from declining further. The logic dictates
that as the price declines towards support and
gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to
buy and sellers become less inclined to sell.
By the time the price reaches the support
level, it is believed that demand will overcome
supply and prevent the price from falling
below support.
Support does not always hold and a break
below support signals that the bears have
won out over the bulls. A decline below
support indicates a new willingness to sell
and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support
breaks and new lows signal that sellers have
reduced their expectations and are willing
sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers
could not be coerced into buying until prices
declined below support or below the previous
low. Once support is broken, another support
level will have to be established at a lower
level.
2. Resistance
Resistance is the price level at which selling is
thought to be strong enough to prevent the
price from rising further. The logic dictates
that as the price advances towards
resistance, sellers become more inclined to
sell and buyers become less inclined to buy.
By the time the price reaches the resistance
level, it is believed that supply will overcome
demand and prevent the price from rising
above resistance.
Resistance does not always hold and a break
above resistance signals that the bulls have
won out over the bears. A break above
resistance shows a new willingness to buy
and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance
breaks and new highs indicate buyers have
increased their expectations and are willing to
buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers
could not be coerced into selling until prices
rose above resistance or above the previous
high. Once resistance is broken, another
resistance level will have to be established at
a higher level.
6. Chart Patterns
1. Head and Shoulders
A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern
forms after an uptrend, and its completion
marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains
three successive peaks with the middle peak
(head) being the highest and the two outside
peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly
equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be
connected to form support, or a neckline.
As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders
reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder,
a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline.
Other parts playing a role in the pattern
are volume, the breakout, price target
and support turned resistance. We will look at
each part individually, and then put them
together with some examples.
1. Prior Trend: It is important to establish the
existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a
reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to
reverse, there cannot be a Head and
Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal
pattern for that matter).
2. Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left
shoulder forms a peak that marks the high
point of the current trend. After making this
peak, a decline ensues to complete the
formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the
decline usually remains above the trend
line, keeping the uptrend intact.
3. Head: From the low of the left shoulder,
an advance begins that exceeds the
previous high and marks the top of the
head. After peaking, the low of the
subsequent decline marks the second point
of the neckline (2). The low of the decline
usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the
uptrend in jeopardy.
4. Right Shoulder: The advance from the low
of the head forms the right shoulder. This
peak is lower than the head (a lower high)
and usually in line with the high of the left
shoulder. While symmetry is preferred,
sometimes the shoulders can be out of
whack. The decline from the peak of the
right shoulder should break the neckline.
5. Neckline: The neckline forms by
connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1
marks the end of the left shoulder and the
beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks
the end of the head and the beginning of
the right shoulder. Depending on the
relationship between the two low points, the
neckline can slope up, slope down or be
horizontal. The slope of the neckline will
affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—
a downward slope is more bearish than an
upward slope. Sometimes more than one
low point can be used to form the neckline.
6. Volume: As the Head and Shoulders
pattern unfolds, volume plays an important
role in confirmation. Volume can be
measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin
Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume
levels. Ideally, but not always, volume
during the advance of the left shoulder
should be higher than during the advance
of the head. This decrease in volume and
the new high of the head, together, serve
as a warning sign. The next warning sign
comes when volume increases on the
decline from the peak of the head. Final
confirmation comes when volume further
increases during the decline of the right
shoulder.
7. Neckline Break: The head and shoulders
pattern is not complete and the uptrend is
not reversed until neckline support is
broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a
convincing manner, with an expansion in
volume.
8. Price Target: After breaking neckline
support, the projected price decline is found
by measuring the distance from the
neckline to the top of the head. This
distance is then subtracted from the
neckline to reach a price target. Any price
target should serve as a rough guide, and
other factors should be considered as well.
These factors might include previous
support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or
long-term moving averages.
Interpretation- Head and Shoulder chart pattern
give sell signal after breaking the neckline, Bajaj
Auto breaches the level of neckline around
Rs.2067 so we will short sell the stock and we can
have price target of (2067-180=1887). Downfall of
price 180 is measured from perpendicular drawn
from top of head to neckline.
We will exit this trade around Rs.1887.
2. Reverse Head and Shoulder
Interpretation- Reverse head and shoulder pattern
in Maruti ltd. Shows the buying signal around Rs.
1546 ,and which have a price target of 1758 (i.e.
1758-1546=212)
So we will enter in this trade around 1546 and we
will exit around the price level of 1760.
3. Double Top
The Double Top Reversal is a bearish
reversal pattern typically found on bar charts,
line charts and candlestick charts. As its name
implies, the pattern is made up of two
consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with
a moderate trough in-between.
Although there can be variations, the classic
Double Top Reversal marks at least an
intermediate change, if not a long-term
change, in trend from bullish to bearish.
Many potential Double Top Reversals can
form along the way up, but until key support is
broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To
help clarify, we will look at the key points in
the formation and then walk through an
example.
1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern,
there must be an existing trend to reverse.
In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a
significant uptrend of several months
should be in place.
2. First Peak: The first peak should mark the
highest point of the current trend. As such,
the first peak is fairly normal and the
uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at
this time.
3. Trough: After the first peak, a decline
takes place that typically ranges from 10 to
20%. Volume on the decline from the first
peak is usually inconsequential. The lows
are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit,
which can be a sign of tepid demand.
4. Second Peak: The advance off the lows
usually occurs with low volume and meets
resistance from the previous
high. Resistance from the previous high
should be expected. Even after meeting
resistance, only the possibility of a Double
Top Reversal exists. The pattern still needs
to be confirmed. The time period between
peaks can vary from a few weeks to many
months, with the norm being 1-3 months.
While exact peaks are preferable, there is
some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of
the previous high is adequate.
5. Decline from Peak: The subsequent
decline from the second peak should
witness an expansion in volume and/or an
accelerated descent, perhaps marked with
a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the
forces of demand are weaker than supply
and a support test is imminent.
6. Support Break: Even after trading down to
support, the Double Top Reversal and
trend reversal are still not complete.
Breaking support from the lowest point
between the peaks completes the Double
Top Reversal. This too should occur with
an increase in volume and/or an
accelerated descent.
7. Support Turned Resistance: Broken
support becomes potential resistance and
there is sometimes a test of this newfound
resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a
test can offer a second chance to exit a
position or initiate a short.
8. Price Target: The distance from support
break to peak can be subtracted from the
support break for a price target. This would
infer that the bigger the formation is, the
larger the potential decline.
Figure-Showing Double Top (Coal-India)
Interpretation- Under Double Top Pattern – we
enter in trade when price break the support level
around Rs.275 so we short sell coal India and can
have potential price fall of Rs.25(i.e. difference
between the second peak and support break level.
We can exit this trade around Rs.245 which shows
and bullish engulfing candle which is a signal of
trend reversal.
4. Double Bottom
The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish
reversal pattern typically found on bar charts,
line charts and candlestick charts. As its name
implies, the pattern is made up of two
consecutive troughs that are roughly equal,
with a moderate peak in-between.
Although there can be variations, the classic
Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an
intermediate or long-term change in trend.
Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can
form along the way down, but until key
resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be
confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the
key points in the formation and then walk
through an example.
1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern,
there must be an existing trend to reverse.
In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal,
a significant downtrend of several months
should be in place.
2. First Trough: The first trough should mark
the lowest point of the current trend. As
such, the first trough is fairly normal in
appearance and the downtrend remains
firmly in place.
3. Peak: After the first trough, an advance
takes place that typically ranges from 10 to
20%. Volume on the advance from the first
trough is usually inconsequential, but an
increase could signal early accumulation.
The high of the peak is sometimes rounded
or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go
back down. This hesitation indicates that
demand is increasing, but still not strong
enough for a breakout.
4. Second Trough: The decline off the
reaction high usually occurs with low
volume and meets support from the
previous low. Support from the previous low
should be expected. Even after establishing
support, only the possibility of a Double
Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to
be confirmed. The time period between
troughs can vary from a few weeks to many
months, with the norm being 1-3 months.
While exact troughs are preferable, there is
some room to maneuver and usually a
trough within 3% of the previous is
considered valid.
5. Advance from Trough: Volume is more
important for the Double Bottom Reversal
than the double top. There should clear
evidence that volume and buying pressure
are accelerating during the advance off of
the second trough. An accelerated ascent,
perhaps marked with a gap or two, also
indicates a potential change in sentiment.
6. Resistance Break: Even after trading up to
resistance, the double top and trend
reversal are still not complete. Breaking
resistance from the highest point between
the troughs completes the Double Bottom
Reversal. This too should occur with an
increase in volume and/or an accelerated
ascent.
7. Resistance Turned Support: Broken
resistance becomes potential support and
there is sometimes a test of this newfound
support level with the first correction. Such
a test can offer a second chance to close a
short position or initiate a long.
8. Price Target: The distance from the
resistance breakout to trough lows can be
added on top of the resistance break to
estimate a target. This would imply that the
bigger the formation is, the larger the
potential advance.
Fig showing Double bottom
Interpretation- Under Double Bottom Pattern – we
enter in trade when price break the resistance
level around Rs.7000 so we buy Mid-Cap and can
have potential price rise in price of Rs.470(i.e.
difference between the second peak and support
break level. We can exit this trade around
Rs.7470, and book our measured profit.,
5. Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation
that usually forms during an uptrend as a
continuation pattern. There are instances
when ascending triangles form as reversal
patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they
are typically continuation patterns. Regardless
of where they form, ascending triangles are
bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be
referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or
more equal highs form a horizontal line at the
top. Two or more rising troughs form an
ascending trend line that converges on the
horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were
extended right, the ascending trend line could
act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a
perpendicular line were drawn extending
down from the left end of the horizontal line, a
right triangle would form. Let's examine each
individual part of the pattern and then look at
an example.
1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation
pattern, an established trend should exist.
However, because the ascending triangle is
a bullish pattern, the length and duration of
the current trend is not as important as the
robustness of the formation, which is
paramount.
2. Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction
highs are required to form the top horizontal
line. The highs do not have to be exact, but
they should be within reasonable
proximity of each other. There should be
some distance between the highs, and
a reaction low between them.
3. Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two
reaction lows are required to form the lower
ascending trend line. These reaction lows
should be successively higher, and there
should be some distance between the
lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal
to or less than the previous reaction low,
then the ascending triangle is not valid.
4. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume
usually contracts. When the upside
breakout occurs, there should be an
expansion of volume to confirm the
breakout. While volume confirmation
is preferred, it is not always necessary.
5. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of
technical analysis is that resistance turns
into support and vice versa. When the
horizontal resistance line of the ascending
triangle is broken, it turns into support.
Sometimes there will be a return to this
support level before the move begins in
earnest.
6. Target: Once the breakout has occurred,
the price projection is found by measuring
the widest distance of the pattern and
applying it to the resistance breakout.
Interpretation- Ascending Triangle is a
continuation pattern, so after breakout it will
continue with uptrend, the price projection is
found by measuring the widest distance of the
pattern and applying it to the resistance
breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.187
and can book profit Rs.60.
We exit this trade around Rs.247 where chart
shows Bearish Harami.
6. Descending Triangle
The descending triangle is a bearish formation
that usually forms during a downtrend as a
continuation pattern. There are instances
when descending triangles form as reversal
patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are
typically continuation patterns. Regardless of
where they form, descending triangles
are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be
referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or
more comparable lows form a horizontal
line at the bottom. Two or more declining
peaks form a descending trend line above that
converges with the horizontal line as it
descends. If both lines were extended right,
the descending trend line could act as the
hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a
perpendicular line were drawn extending up
from the left end of the horizontal line, a right
triangle would form. Let's examine each
individual part of the pattern and then look at
an example.
1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation
pattern, an established trend should exist.
However, because the descending triangle
is definitely a bearish pattern, the length
and duration of the current trend is not as
important. The robustness of the formation
is paramount.
2. Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction
lows are required to form the lower
horizontal line. The lows do not have to be
exact, but should be within reasonable
proximity of each other. There should be
some distance separating the lows and a
reaction high between them.
3. Upper Descending Trend Line: At least
two reaction highs are required to form the
upper descending trend line.
These reaction highs should be
successively lower and there should be
some distance between the highs. If a more
recent reaction high is equal to or greater
than the previous reaction high, then the
descending triangle is not valid.
4. Duration: The length of the pattern can
range from a few weeks to many months,
with the average pattern lasting from 1-3
months.
5. Volume: As the pattern
develops, volume usually contracts. When
the downside break occurs, there would
ideally be an expansion of volume for
confirmation. While volume confirmation is
preferred, it is not always necessary.
6. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of
technical analysis is that
broken support turns into resistance and
visa versa. When the horizontal support line
of the descending triangle is broken, it turns
into resistance. Sometimes there will be a
return to this newfound resistance level
before the down move begins in earnest.
7. Target: Once the breakout has occurred,
the price projection is found by
measuring the widest distance of the
pattern and subtracting it from the
resistance breakout.
Figure showing Descending Triangle (Nifty
Weekly)
Interpretation -Descending Triangle is a
continuation pattern, so after breakout it will
continue with downtrend, the price projection
is found by measuring the widest distance of
the pattern and applying it to the resistance
breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.5350
and can book profit Rs.800.
We exit this trade around Rs.4500.
7. Symmetrical Triangle
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be
referred to as a coil, usually forms during a
trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern
contains at least two lower highs and two
higher lows. When these points are
connected, the lines converge as they are
extended and the symmetrical triangle takes
shape. You could also think of it as a
contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and
narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical
triangles mark important trend reversals, they
more often mark a continuation of the current
trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern,
continuation or reversal, the direction of the
next major move can only be determined after
a valid breakout. We will examine each part of
the symmetrical triangle individually, and then
provide an example with Conseco.
1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation
pattern, an established trend should exist.
The trend should be at least a few months
old and the symmetrical triangle marks a
consolidation period before continuing after
the breakout.
2. Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are
required to form a trend line and 2 trend
lines are required to form a symmetrical
triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points
are required to begin considering a
formation as a symmetrical triangle. The
second high (2) should be lower than the
first (1) and the upper line should slope
down. The second low (2) should be higher
than the first (1) and the lower line should
slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6
points (3 on each side) before a breakout
occurs.
3. Volume: As the symmetrical triangle
extends and the trading range contracts,
volume should start to diminish. This refers
to the quiet before the storm, or the
tightening consolidation before the
breakout.
4. Duration: The symmetrical triangle can
extend for a few weeks or many months. If
the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is
usually considered a pennant. Typically, the
time duration is about 3 months.
5. Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout
point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through
the pattern's development or time-span.
The time-span of the pattern can be
measured from the apex (convergence of
upper and lower lines) back to the
beginning of the lower trend line (base). A
break before the 1/2 way point might be
premature and a break too close to the
apex may be insignificant. After all, as the
apex approaches, a breakout must occur
sometime.
6. Breakout Direction: The future direction of
the breakout can only be determined after
the break has occurred. Sounds obvious
enough, but attempting to guess the
direction of the breakout can be dangerous.
Even though a continuation pattern is
supposed to breakout in the direction of the
long-term trend, this is not always the case.
7. Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be
considered valid, it should be on a closing
basis. Some traders apply a price (3%
break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to
confirm validity. The breakout should occur
with an expansion in volume, especially on
upside breakouts.
8. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or
down), the apex can turn into future
support or resistance. The price sometimes
returns to the apex or a support/resistance
level around the breakout before resuming
in the direction of the breakout.
9. Price Target: There are two methods to
estimate the extent of the move after the
breakout. First, the widest distance of the
symmetrical triangle can be measured and
applied to the breakout point. Second, a
trend line can be drawn parallel to the
pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down)
in the direction of the break. The extension
of this line will mark a potential breakout
target.
Interpretation- We will enter in trade when price
give breakout from triangle
And then we can remain on the trade until or
unless price touches the line number 1. We
can exit the market as soon as it touches that ,
So we will enter at Rs.341 and will exit around
Rs.220.
7. Technical Indicator And Oscillators
A technical indicator is a series of data points
that are derived by applying a formula to the
price data of a security. Price data includes
any combination of the open, high, low or
close over a period of time. Some indicators
may use only the closing prices, while others
incorporate volume and open interest into
their formulas. The price data is entered into
the formula and a data point is produced.
Technical Indicators broadly serve three
functions: to alert, to confirm and to predict.
Indicator acts as an alert to study price action,
sometimes it also gives a signal to watch for a
break of support. A large positive divergence
can act as an alert to watch for a resistance
breakout. Indicators can be used to confirm
other technical analysis tools. Some investors
and traders use indicators to predict the
direction of future prices.
Types of indicators
Indicators can broadly be divided into two
types “LEADING” and “LAGGING”.
Leading indicators
Leading indicators are designed to lead price
movements. Benefits of leading indicators are
early signaling for entry and exit, generating
more signals and allow more opportunities to
trade. They represent a form of price
momentum over a fixed look-back period,
which is the number of periods used to
calculate the indicator. Some of the wellmore
popular leading indicators include Commodity
Channel Index (CCI), Momentum, Relative
Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator
and Williams %R.
Lagging Indicators
Lagging Indicators are the indicators that
would follow a trend rather then predicting a
reversal. A lagging indicator follows an event.
These indicators work well when prices move
in relatively long trends. They don’t warn you
of upcoming changes in prices, they simply
tell you what prices are doing (i.e., rising or
falling) so that you can invest accordingly.
These trend following indicators makes you
buy and sell late and, in exchange for missing
the early opportunities, they greatly reduce
your risk by keeping you on the right side of
the market.
Moving averages and the MACD are
examples of trend following, or “lagging,”
indicators.
1. Relative Strength Index
Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative
Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator
that measures the speed and change of price
movements. RSI oscillates between zero and
100. Traditionally, and according to Wilder,
RSI is considered overbought when above 70
and oversold when below 30. Signals can also
be generated by looking for divergences,
failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI
can also be used to identify the general trend.
Application of RSI
RSI is a momentum oscillator generally used
in sideways or ranging markets where the
price moves between support and resistance
levels. It is one of the most useful technical
tool employed by many traders to measure
the velocity of directional price movement.
Overbought and Oversold
The RSI is a price-following oscillator that
ranges between 0 and 100. Generally,
technical analysts use 30% oversold and 70%
overbought lines to generate the buy and sell
signals.
• Go long when the indicator moves from
below to above the oversold line.
• Go short when the indicator moves from
above to below the overbought line.
Note here that the direction of crossing is
important; the indicator needs to first go past
the overbought/oversold lines and then cross
back through them.
Divergence
The other means of using RSI is to look at
divergences between price peaks/troughs and
indicator peaks/ troughs.
If the price makes a new higher peak but the
momentum does not make a corresponding
higher peak this indicates there is less power
driving the new price high? Since there is less
power or support for the new higher price a
reversal could be expected.
Similarly if the price makes a new lower
trough but the momentum indicator does not
make a corresponding lower trough, then it
can be surmised that the downward
movement is running out of strength and a
reversal upward could soon be expected.
Figure Showing RSI Indicator
Interpretation – RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a
leading indicator, it gives the intimation before
price takes actual moves, so as per this premise,
and we can go short when the indicator moves
from above to below the overbought line. And Go
long when the indicator moves from below to
above the oversold line.
On 5 November 2013, RSI moves from above to
below the overbought line which is and sell signal
and on the same day candlesticks showing
Bearish Harami Pattern which confirms the sell
signal.
1. We will enter the trade at price level Rs.1210 by
selling the stock and exit the market by buying it
around Rs.1030.
2.We will this buy this stock again on 16th Feb
2014 where RSI moves from below to above the
oversold line which is and buying signal and
candlesticks showing hammer pattern which is a
trend reversal patter so we buy this stock around
Rs.1110
And there no trend reversal so we can continue to
hold this position.
2. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
(MACD)
MACD stands for Moving Average
Convergence / Divergence. It is a technical
analysis indicator created by Gerald Appel in
the late 1970s. The MACD indicator is
basically a refinement of the two moving
averages system and measures the distance
between the two moving average lines.
What is the MACD and how is it calculated?
The MACD does not completely fall into either
the trend-leading indicator or trend following
indicator; it is in fact a hybrid with elements of
both. The MACD comprises two lines, the fast
line and the slow or signal line. These are
easy to identify as the slow line will be the
smoother of the two.
Step1. Calculate a 12 period exponential
moving average of the close price.
Step2. Calculate a 26 period exponential
moving average of the close price.
Step3. Subtract the 26 period moving average
from the 12 period moving average. This is
the fast MACD line.
Step4. Calculate a 9 period exponential
moving average of the fast MACD line
calculated above. This is the slow or signal
MACD line.
Use of MACD lines
MACD generates signals from three main
sources:
• Moving average crossover
• Centreline crossover
• Divergence
Crossover of fast and slow lines
The MACD proves most effective in wide-
swinging trading markets. We will first
consider the use of the two MACD lines. The
signals to go long or short are provided by a
crossing of the fast and slow lines. The basic
MACD trading rules are as follows:
• Go long when the fast line crosses above
the slow line.
• Go short when the fast line crosses below
the slow line.
These signals are best when they occur some
distance above or below the reference line. If
the lines remain near the reference line for an
extended period as usually occurs in a
sideways market, then the signals should be
ignored.
Centre line crossover
A bullish centre line crossover occurs when
MACD moves above the zero line and into
positive territory. This is a clear indication that
momentum has changed from negative to
positive or from bearish to bullish. After a
positive divergence and bullish moving
average crossover, the centre line crossover
can act as a confirmation signal. Of the three
signals, moving average crossover are
probably the second most common signals. A
bearish centre line crossover occurs when
MACD moves below zero and into negative
territory. This is a clear indication that
momentum has changed from positive to
negative or from bullish to bearish. The centre
line crossover can act as an independent
signal, or confirm a prior signal such as a
moving average crossover or negative
divergence. Once MACD crosses
into negative territory, momentum, at least for
the short term, has turned bearish.
Figure Showing MACD (Sunpharma)
Interpretation- 25 July 2013 , RSI shows buying
signal as RSI moves from below to above the
oversold line which is and buying signal and
candlesticks showing Bullish Engulfing which is a
buying signal and In MACD fast line crosses
above the slow line which is an buying signal and
Volumes are high on this day, All the indicators
and Bullish Harami shows the buy signal so we
can enter in the market at this point around price
level of Rs. 475. And we will exit this market
around Rs.570 where candles shows bearish
engulfing, RSI moves from above to below the
overbought line, which is an sell signal , MACD
fast line crosses below the slow line which is an
sell signal. So as per these signals we can exit the
market.
3. Stochastic
The Stochastic indicator was developed by
George Lane. It compares where a security’s
price closes over a selected number of period.
The most commonly 14 periods stochastic is
used.
The Stochastic indicator is designated by
“%K” which is just a mathematical
representation of a ratio.
%K=(today’s Close)-(Lowest low over a
selected period)/
(Highest over a selected period)- (Lowest low
over a selected period)
For example, if today’s close is 50 and high
and low over last 14 days is 40 and 55
respectively then,
%K= 50-40/55-40
=0.666
Finally these values are multiplied by 100 to
change decimal value into percentage for
better calling.
This 0.666 signifies that today’s close was at
66.6% level relative to its trading range over
last 14 days.
A moving average of %K is then calculated
which is designated by %D. The most
commonly 3 period’s %D is used.
The stochastic indicator always moves
between zero and hundred, hence it is also
known as stochastic oscillator. The value of
stochastic oscillator near to zero signifi es that
today’s close is near to lowest price security
traded over a selected period and similarly
value of stochastic oscillator near to hundred
signifies that today’s close is near to highest
price security traded over a selected period.
Interpretation of Stochastic Indicator
Most popularly stochastic indicator is used in
three ways
a. To define overbought and oversold zone-
Generally stochastic oscillator reading above
80 is considered overbought and stochastic
oscillator reading below 20 is considered
oversold.
It basically suggests that
• One should book profit in buy side positions
and should avoid new buy side positions in an
overbought zone.
• One should book profit in sell side positions
and should avoid new sell side positions in an
oversold zone
b. Buy when %K line crosses % D line (dotted
line) to the upside in oversold zone and sell
when %K line crosses % D line(dotted line) to
the downside in overbought zone.
c. Look for Divergences- Divergences are of
two types i.e. positive and negative.
Positive Divergence-are formed when price
makes new low, but stochastic oscillator fails
to make new low. This divergence suggests a
reversal of trend from down to up.
Negative Divergence-are formed when price
makes new high, but stochastic oscillator fails
to make new high. This divergence suggests
a reversal of trend from up to down.
Figure Showing Stochastic (Nifty)
Interpretation- On Nov 1 2013 , Candlesticks
shows and spinning top which shows a sign of
trend reversal , RSI moves from above to below
the overbought line, which is an sell signal, and
Stochastic shows %K line crosses % D line to the
downside in overbought zone which is also an sell
signal so we enter the market at this point after
getting confirmation from the indicators which is
showing and sell signal so we will take short
position in nifty around Rs.6300, and will buy back
it around Rs.6000 where %K line crosses % D line
to the upside, So we will gain Rs.300 per share.
Same we will use for further crossover of %K and
%D.
4. Moving Averages
Moving averages
One of the most common and familiar trend-
following indicators is the moving averages.
They smooth a data series and make it easier
to spot trends, something that is especially
helpful in volatile markets. They also form the
building blocks for many other technical
indicators and
overlays.
The two most popular types of moving
averages are the Simple Moving Average
(SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average
(EMA). They are described in more detail
below.
4.1. Simple moving average (SMA)
A simple moving average is formed by
computing the average (mean) price of a
security over a specified number of periods. It
places equal value on every price for the time
span selected. While it is possible to create
moving averages from the Open, the High,
and the Low data points, most moving
averages are created using the closing price.
For example: a
5-day simple moving average is calculated by
adding the closing prices for the last 5 days
and dividing the total by 5.
4.2 Exponential moving average (EMA)
Exponential moving average also called as
exponentially weighted moving average is
calculated by applying more weight to recent
prices relative to older prices. In order to
reduce the lag in simple moving averages,
technicians often use exponential moving
averages. The weighting
applied to the most recent price depends on
the specified period of the moving average.
The 82 shorter the EMA’s period, weight is
applied to the most recent price. For
example: a 10-period
exponential moving average weighs the most
recent price 18.18% while a 20-period EMA
weighs the most recent price 9.52%. As we’ll
see, the calculating and EMA is much harder
than calculating an SMA. The important thing
to remember is that the exponential moving
average puts more weight on recent prices.
As such, it will react quicker to recent price
changes than a simple moving average.
Exponential moving average calculation
The formula for an exponential moving
average is:
EMA (current) = ((Price (current) - EMA
(prev)) x (Multiplier) + EMA (prev)
For a percentage-based EMA, “Multiplier” is
equal to the EMA’s specified percentage. For
a period-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to 2
/ (1 + N) where N is the specified number of
periods.
Note that, in exponential moving average,
every previous closing price in the data set is
used in the calculation. The impact of the
older data never disappears though it
diminishes over a period of time. This is true
regardless of the EMA’s specified period. The
effects of older data diminish rapidly for
shorter EMA’s than for longer ones but, again,
they never completely
Disappear.
Interpretation- Using Moving Averages, we can
continuously enter and exit the market as moving
averages gives crossover to prices.
1. First long position is at Rs.5830 where price
moves above the 15-days moving average and we
will exit the market around Rs.6190 when price
moves below the15-days moving average.
Profit=6190(Sell)- 5830(Buy)=Rs.360
2 Second long position is at Rs.6105 where price
moves above the 15-days moving average and we
will exit the market around Rs.6220 when price
moves below the15-days moving average.
Profit=6220(Sell)-6105(Buy) =Rs.115
3. Third long position is at Rs.6220 where price
moves above the 15-days moving average and we
will exit the market around Rs.6270 when price
moves below the15-days moving average.
Profit=6270(Sell)-6220(Buy) =Rs.50
4. Fourth long position is at Rs.6185 where
price moves above the 15-days moving
average and till now there is no sign of
moving average crossover with price so we
can continue to carry the position.
8. Fibonacci Retracements
Overview
Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician
who was born in Italy around the year 1170. It
is believed that Mr. Fibonacci discovered the
relationship of what are now referred to as
Fibonacci numbers while studying the Great
Pyramid of Gizeh in Egypt.
Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of
numbers in which each successive number is
the sum of the two previous numbers:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 610,
etc.
These numbers possess an intriguing number
of interrelationships, such as the fact that any
given number is approximately 1.618 times
the preceding number and any given number
is approximately 0.618 times the following
number. The booklet Understanding Fibonacci
Numbers by Edward Dobson contains a good
discussion of these interrelationships.
Retracements
Fibonacci Retracements are displayed by first
drawing a trend line between two extreme
points, for example, a trough and opposing
peak. A series of nine horizontal lines are
drawn intersecting the trend line at the
Fibonacci levels of 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%,
61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%.
(Some of the lines will probably not be visible
because they will be off the scale.)
After a significant price move (either up or
down), prices will often retrace a
Significant portion (if not all) of the original
move. As prices retrace, support and
resistance levels often occur at or near the
Fibonacci Retracement levels.
Figure Showing-Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Interpretations – Fibonacci Retracement tools help
to identify the support and resistance level in the
stock by using golden ratios. So as we can see inn
above chart
strong resistance level are at 23.6% because price
has came down 2 times after reaching 23.6%
levels and strong Support levels are at around
50.0% levels because price has moved above 2
times after reaching 50.0% of price. These
percentage levels are exactly the same as
Fibonacci golden ratios.
9. Elliot Waves Theory
Overview
The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph
Nelson Elliott. Inspired by the Dow Theory
and by observations found throughout nature,
Elliott concluded that themovement of the
stock market could be predicted by observing
and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves.
In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's
activities, not just the stock market, were
influenced by these identifiable series of
waves.
With the help of C. J. Collins, Elliott's ideas
received the attention of Wall Street in a
series of articles published in Financial World
magazine in 1939. During the 1950s and
1960s (after Elliott's passing), his work was
advanced by Hamilton Bolton. In 1960, Bolton
wrote Elliott Wave Principle--A Critical
Appraisal. This was the first significant work
since Elliott's passing. In 1978, Robert
Prechter and A. J. Frost collaborated to write
the book Elliott Wave Principle.
Interpretation
The underlying forces behind the Elliott Wave
Theory are of building up and
tearing down. The basic concepts of the Elliott
Wave Theory are listed below.
1. Action is followed by reaction.
There are five waves in the direction of the
main trend followed by three
corrective waves (a "5-3" move).
2. A 5-3 move completes a cycle. This 5-3
move then becomes two
subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.
3. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains
constant, though the time span of each
may vary.
4.The basic pattern is made up of eight waves
(five up and three down) which are labeled 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c on the following chart.
Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves.
Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves.
Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend
made by waves 1 through 5. The main trend
is established by waves 1 through 5 and can
be either up or down. Waves a, b, and c
always move in the opposite direction of
waves 1 through 5.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave
within a wave count contains a
complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle.
The longest wave count is called the Grand
Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are
comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles
are comprised of Cycles. This process
continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute,
Minuette, and Sub-minuette waves.
The following chart shows how 5-3 waves are
comprised of smaller cycles.
This chart contains the identical pattern
shown in the preceding chart (now
displayed using dotted lines), but the smaller
cycles are also displayed. For
example, you can see that impulse wave
labeled 1 in the preceding chart is
comprised of five smaller waves.
Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical
foundation for the Elliott Wave
Theory. Briefly, the Fibonacci number
sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and
adding the previous number to arrive at the
new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2,2+1=3,
3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc). Each of the
cycles that Elliott defined are comprised of a
total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci
number sequence.
Bibliography
Books
1. NCFM- Technical Analysis Module
2. Technical Analysis Of Stock Trend
Strength-9th Edition (John Magee)
3. Tehnical Analysis for Financial Market
Technician
4. Japanese Candlesticks Charting (Steve
Nison)
5. Technical Analysis (Martin J.Pring)
6. Technical Analysis from A to Z ( Steven B.
Achelis)
7.The Secret Code of Japanese Candlesticks
- Felipe Tudela
8.Trend Forecasting with Technical Analysis
Website
1. www.chartink.com
2. www.bigpaisa.com
3. www.Moneycontrol.com
4. www.stockchats.com
5. www.nseindia.com
6. www.investing.com
7. www.icharts.com
Technical Analysis Project

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Equity research fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...
Equity research  fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...Equity research  fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...
Equity research fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...ramoo07
 
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance project
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance projectChart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance project
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance projectGanesh Asokan
 
Internship report of share khan
Internship report of share khanInternship report of share khan
Internship report of share khanHarshita Bansal
 
Technical analysis of equity shares project report
Technical analysis of equity shares project reportTechnical analysis of equity shares project report
Technical analysis of equity shares project reportBabasab Patil
 
A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET
 A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET  A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET
A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET Alina Ali
 
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra company
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra companyA project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra company
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra companyBabasab Patil
 
Technical analysis by Santosh Meka
Technical analysis by Santosh MekaTechnical analysis by Santosh Meka
Technical analysis by Santosh MekaSantosh Meka
 
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPT
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET  presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPTTechnical analysis OF STOCK MARKET  presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPT
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPTBabasab Patil
 
Project On Derivatives
Project On DerivativesProject On Derivatives
Project On Derivativesindira 7
 
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocks
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocksA study of technical analysis in different sector stocks
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocksProjects Kart
 
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sectorA project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sectorBabasab Patil
 
Technical analysis Fundamentals
Technical analysis FundamentalsTechnical analysis Fundamentals
Technical analysis Fundamentalsn_ibs
 
A project on derivatives market in india
A project on derivatives market in indiaA project on derivatives market in india
A project on derivatives market in indiaProjects Kart
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Technical analysis
Technical analysisTechnical analysis
Technical analysis
 
Equity research fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...
Equity research  fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...Equity research  fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...
Equity research fundamental and technical analysis and its impact on stock p...
 
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance project
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance projectChart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance project
Chart analysis of various equity stocks, MBA finance project
 
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FMCG SECTOR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FMCG SECTORTECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FMCG SECTOR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF FMCG SECTOR
 
Project on equity analysis
Project on equity analysisProject on equity analysis
Project on equity analysis
 
Project titles
Project titlesProject titles
Project titles
 
Internship report of share khan
Internship report of share khanInternship report of share khan
Internship report of share khan
 
Technical analysis of equity shares project report
Technical analysis of equity shares project reportTechnical analysis of equity shares project report
Technical analysis of equity shares project report
 
A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET
 A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET  A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET
A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET
 
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra company
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra companyA project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra company
A project report on fundamental analysis of mahindra&mahindra company
 
Technical analysis by Santosh Meka
Technical analysis by Santosh MekaTechnical analysis by Santosh Meka
Technical analysis by Santosh Meka
 
Technical Analysis
Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis
Technical Analysis
 
Technical analysis
Technical analysisTechnical analysis
Technical analysis
 
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPT
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET  presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPTTechnical analysis OF STOCK MARKET  presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPT
Technical analysis OF STOCK MARKET presentation of mba 4 sem FINANCE PPT
 
Project On Derivatives
Project On DerivativesProject On Derivatives
Project On Derivatives
 
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocks
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocksA study of technical analysis in different sector stocks
A study of technical analysis in different sector stocks
 
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sectorA project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector
A project report on fundamental & technical analysis of automobile sector
 
Technical analysis Fundamentals
Technical analysis FundamentalsTechnical analysis Fundamentals
Technical analysis Fundamentals
 
Japanese Candlestick
Japanese CandlestickJapanese Candlestick
Japanese Candlestick
 
A project on derivatives market in india
A project on derivatives market in indiaA project on derivatives market in india
A project on derivatives market in india
 

Destacado

Project Management- Unit III
Project Management- Unit IIIProject Management- Unit III
Project Management- Unit IIILamay Sabir
 
Technical Analysis Presentation
Technical Analysis PresentationTechnical Analysis Presentation
Technical Analysis Presentationdpark1
 
Technical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptTechnical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptrahul94
 
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation Analysis
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation AnalysisMAED Project Planning & Management_Situation Analysis
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation AnalysisGovernment Employee
 
Managerial appraisal
Managerial appraisalManagerial appraisal
Managerial appraisalvavaparu
 
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocks
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocksTechnical Analysis report on pharma stocks
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocksviplav24
 
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio management
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio managementSecurity analysis (technical) and portfolio management
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio managementHarish Khan
 
Project management & Network analysis
Project management & Network analysisProject management & Network analysis
Project management & Network analysisHarinadh Karimikonda
 
Swot analysis in project management
Swot analysis in project managementSwot analysis in project management
Swot analysis in project managementNirtiSingla
 
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2amitsethi21985
 
Project Appraisal chapter 2
Project Appraisal chapter 2Project Appraisal chapter 2
Project Appraisal chapter 2Mazhar Poohlah
 
Project appraisal
Project appraisalProject appraisal
Project appraisalGotham Ram
 
Technical Analysis Basics
Technical Analysis BasicsTechnical Analysis Basics
Technical Analysis BasicsRISHABH SURANA
 
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Project
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a ProjectMethodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Project
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Projectimrohan1
 
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational Management
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational ManagementPhysical Plant and Facilities in Educational Management
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational Managementpops macalino
 

Destacado (20)

Project Management- Unit III
Project Management- Unit IIIProject Management- Unit III
Project Management- Unit III
 
Technical analysis
Technical analysisTechnical analysis
Technical analysis
 
Technical Analysis Presentation
Technical Analysis PresentationTechnical Analysis Presentation
Technical Analysis Presentation
 
Technical analysis ppt
Technical analysis pptTechnical analysis ppt
Technical analysis ppt
 
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation Analysis
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation AnalysisMAED Project Planning & Management_Situation Analysis
MAED Project Planning & Management_Situation Analysis
 
Technical Analysis Project on N.S.E. listed companies
Technical Analysis Project on N.S.E. listed companiesTechnical Analysis Project on N.S.E. listed companies
Technical Analysis Project on N.S.E. listed companies
 
360 degree
360 degree360 degree
360 degree
 
Managerial appraisal
Managerial appraisalManagerial appraisal
Managerial appraisal
 
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocks
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocksTechnical Analysis report on pharma stocks
Technical Analysis report on pharma stocks
 
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio management
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio managementSecurity analysis (technical) and portfolio management
Security analysis (technical) and portfolio management
 
Project management & Network analysis
Project management & Network analysisProject management & Network analysis
Project management & Network analysis
 
Swot analysis in project management
Swot analysis in project managementSwot analysis in project management
Swot analysis in project management
 
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2
Entrepreneurship Development: Unit No. 2
 
Project Appraisal chapter 2
Project Appraisal chapter 2Project Appraisal chapter 2
Project Appraisal chapter 2
 
Project appraisal
Project appraisalProject appraisal
Project appraisal
 
Project risk analysis
Project risk analysisProject risk analysis
Project risk analysis
 
Technical Analysis Basics
Technical Analysis BasicsTechnical Analysis Basics
Technical Analysis Basics
 
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Project
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a ProjectMethodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Project
Methodology For Formulation And Appraisal of a Project
 
Project appraisal
Project appraisalProject appraisal
Project appraisal
 
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational Management
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational ManagementPhysical Plant and Facilities in Educational Management
Physical Plant and Facilities in Educational Management
 

Similar a Technical Analysis Project

A fundamental study on Technical Analysis
A fundamental study on Technical AnalysisA fundamental study on Technical Analysis
A fundamental study on Technical AnalysisJay Sadhwani
 
Techanical analysis (1)
Techanical analysis (1)Techanical analysis (1)
Techanical analysis (1)neelakshi81
 
Technical analysis on selected sectors
 Technical analysis on selected sectors  Technical analysis on selected sectors
Technical analysis on selected sectors Vikrant Pote
 
Ppt of security analysis 2
Ppt of security analysis 2Ppt of security analysis 2
Ppt of security analysis 2nehaSaini162
 
Portfolio - Technical Analysis
Portfolio - Technical Analysis Portfolio - Technical Analysis
Portfolio - Technical Analysis Kannan Knight
 
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdf
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdfPrice Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdf
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdfNazim Khan
 
Technical Analysis
Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis
Technical Analysisvijay popat
 
Bhavishya- Technical Analysis
Bhavishya- Technical AnalysisBhavishya- Technical Analysis
Bhavishya- Technical Analysisshivamantri
 
Technical analysis
Technical analysisTechnical analysis
Technical analysisSalim Ansari
 
Technical Analysis By Pantej
Technical Analysis By PantejTechnical Analysis By Pantej
Technical Analysis By Pantejashish_pandya38
 
Investment Analysis
Investment Analysis Investment Analysis
Investment Analysis Nina Haku
 
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10A.W. Berry
 
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamental and Technical Analysis
Fundamental and Technical AnalysisMACFAST
 
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umang
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umangInterface brokerage and research ltd ; umang
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umangjitharadharmesh
 
Technical Analysis.pptx
Technical Analysis.pptxTechnical Analysis.pptx
Technical Analysis.pptxSRCAS
 

Similar a Technical Analysis Project (20)

A fundamental study on Technical Analysis
A fundamental study on Technical AnalysisA fundamental study on Technical Analysis
A fundamental study on Technical Analysis
 
Techanical analysis (1)
Techanical analysis (1)Techanical analysis (1)
Techanical analysis (1)
 
Ii technical analysis
Ii technical analysisIi technical analysis
Ii technical analysis
 
Technical analysis on selected sectors
 Technical analysis on selected sectors  Technical analysis on selected sectors
Technical analysis on selected sectors
 
Ppt of security analysis 2
Ppt of security analysis 2Ppt of security analysis 2
Ppt of security analysis 2
 
Portfolio - Technical Analysis
Portfolio - Technical Analysis Portfolio - Technical Analysis
Portfolio - Technical Analysis
 
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdf
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdfPrice Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdf
Price Action Trading Best 100% Successful Strategies used by Investors.pdf
 
Technical Analysis
Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis
Technical Analysis
 
Bhavishya- Technical Analysis
Bhavishya- Technical AnalysisBhavishya- Technical Analysis
Bhavishya- Technical Analysis
 
Technical-Analysis.pdf
Technical-Analysis.pdfTechnical-Analysis.pdf
Technical-Analysis.pdf
 
project mass
project massproject mass
project mass
 
Technical analysis
Technical analysisTechnical analysis
Technical analysis
 
Technical Analysis By Pantej
Technical Analysis By PantejTechnical Analysis By Pantej
Technical Analysis By Pantej
 
Investment Analysis
Investment Analysis Investment Analysis
Investment Analysis
 
6th chapter
6th chapter6th chapter
6th chapter
 
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10
Moneycation april 2015 newsletter; volume #3, issue #10
 
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamental and Technical Analysis
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
 
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umang
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umangInterface brokerage and research ltd ; umang
Interface brokerage and research ltd ; umang
 
Technical Analysis.pptx
Technical Analysis.pptxTechnical Analysis.pptx
Technical Analysis.pptx
 
SAPM-33.pptx
SAPM-33.pptxSAPM-33.pptx
SAPM-33.pptx
 

Último

Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintSuomen Pankki
 
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》rnrncn29
 
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)twfkn8xj
 
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdf
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdfmagnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdf
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdfHenry Tapper
 
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfKempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfHenry Tapper
 
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Precize Formely Leadoff
 
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...AES International
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)ECTIJ
 
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713Sonam Pathan
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentfactical
 
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...Amil baba
 
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxRole of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxNarayaniTripathi2
 
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证jdkhjh
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...Amil baba
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technologyz xss
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Champak Jhagmag
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证rjrjkk
 
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex
 

Último (20)

Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
 
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
 
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
 
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)
(中央兰开夏大学毕业证学位证成绩单-案例)
 
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdf
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdfmagnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdf
magnetic-pensions-a-new-blueprint-for-the-dc-landscape.pdf
 
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfKempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
 
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
 
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
 
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
 
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713
Call Girls Near Me WhatsApp:+91-9833363713
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
 
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
 
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxRole of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
 
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻堪萨斯大学毕业证KU毕业证留信学历认证
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
 
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
 

Technical Analysis Project

  • 1. The Indian Institute of Financial Planning Technical Analysis A Project Report Submitted By Shraddha Singh MBA – 6A
  • 2. Acknowledgement I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to my professor (Mr. Amit Bagga) (CA) as well as our Director (Mr. Niamatulla) who gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project on the topic (Technical Analysis), which also helped me in doing a lot of Research and I came to know about so many new things I am really thankful to them. Secondly I would also like to thank other faculty member for their moral support & my parents and friends who helped me a lot in
  • 3. finalizing this project within the limited time frame. Shraddha Singh MBA-6A The Indian Institute of Financial Planning Declaration I Shraddha Singh hereby declares that the work entitled “Technical Analysis” is my original work. I have not copied from
  • 4. any other students’ work or from any other sources except where due reference or acknowledgement is made explicitly in the text, nor has any part been written for me by another person. Shraddha Singh MBA-6A
  • 5. Table of Content Introduction to Technical Analysis Dow Theory Charts Candlesticks Support And Resistance Chart Patterns Technical Indicator Moving Averages Relative Strength Index MACD Stochastic Fibonacci Ratios Elliot Waves
  • 6. Bibliography 1.Introduction to Technical Analysis Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.
  • 7. Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15- minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action. In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data,
  • 8. primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. The technical analysis is an art to identify, a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.
  • 10. The Dow theory was developed by William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea, and E. George Schaefer from the work of Charles H. Dow, who was the founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal and the co-founder of Dow Jones and Company, from which we still today have the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Theory forms the basis of technical analysis, in which investment decisions are made on the basis of trends in the stock chart as opposed to qualities of the underlying company or the stock price. In short, the Dow Theory says the market is trending upwards when both the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index exceed a previous,
  • 11. important high. Similarly, the market is trending downwards when both averages fall below previous lows. Technical investors seek to invest with the primary trend, not against it, i.e., buying during upward trends and selling during downward trends. The Dow Theory has six basic assumptions. The market discounts all news, that is, all of the news on a given company is already priced into the stock. The market has three main trends: the primary trend (the overriding trend of the
  • 12. market), the secondary trend (a smaller correction of the primary trend), and the minor trend (a correction of the secondary trend). Investors shouldn't confuse a secondary trend (a correction) with the primary trend. Every primary trend has three phases. In a bull market, the phases are the accumulation phase (when informed investors get involved after a bear market), the public participation phase, and the excess phase (when prices are run up). In a bear market, the phases are the distribution phase (when informed investors get out after a bull market), the public participation phase, and the panic phase. Accumulation phases and
  • 13. distribution phases are the most difficult to see, but also the most rewarding. The switch from a bear market primary trend to a bull market trend or vice versa cannot be confirmed until both indexes are in agreement. Volume is a secondary indicator to confirm the market trend. It should go up when prices are following the trend and go down when prices are going against the trend. 3. Price Charts A chart is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time frame. For example, a chart may show a stock's price movement over a one-year period, where each point on the graph represents
  • 14. the closing price for each day the stock is traded. Chart Properties 1. The Time Scale The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which can vary from decades to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter the time frame, the more detailed the chart. Each data point can represent the closing price of the period or show the open, the high, the low and the close depending on the chart used. Daily charts are comprised of a series of price movements in which each price point on the
  • 15. chart is a full day's trading condensed into one point. Again, each point on the graph can be simply the closing price or can entail the open, high, low and close for the stock over the day. These data points are spread out over weekly, monthly and even yearly time scales to monitor both short-term and intermediate trends in price movement. Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts are used to analyze longer term trends in the movement of a stock's price. Each data point in these graphs will be a condensed version of what happened over the specified period. So for a weekly chart, each data point will be a representation of the price movement of the week
  • 16. 2. The Price Scale and Price Point Properties The price scale is on the right-hand side of the chart. It shows a stock's current price and compares it to past data points. This may seem like a simple concept in that the price scale goes from lower prices to higher prices as you move along the scale from the bottom to the top. Charts Types There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are: the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart 1. Line Chart
  • 17. Line chart is the most basic and simplest type of stock charts that are used in technical analysis. The line chart is also called a close- only chart as it plots the closing price of the underlying security, with a line connecting the dots formed by the close price. In a line chart the price data for the underlying security is plotted on a graph with the time plotted from left to right along the horizontal axis, or the x- axis and price levels plotted from the bottom up along the vertical axis, or the y-axis. The price data used in line charts is usually the close price of the underlying security. The uncluttered simplicity of the line chart is its greatest strength as it provides a clean, easily recognizable, visual display of the price movement. This makes it an ideal tool for use in identifying the dominant support and
  • 18. resistance levels, trend lines, and certain chart patterns. However, the line chart does not indicate the highs and lows and, hence, they do not indicate the price range for the session. Despite this, line charts were the charting technique favored by Charles Dow who was only interested in the level at which the price closed. This, Dow felt, is the most important price data of the session or trading period as it determined that period's unrealized profit or loss.
  • 19. Fig- Showing The Line Chart 2. Bar Chart Bar charts are one of the most popular forms of stock charts and were the most widely used charts before the introduction of candlestick charts. Bar charts are drawn on a graph that plots time on the horizontal axis and price levels on the vertical axis. These charts provide much more information than line charts as they consists of a series of vertical
  • 20. bars that indicate various price data for each time-frame on the chart. This data can be either the open price, the high price, the low price and the close price, making it an OHLC bar chart, or the high price, the low price and the close price, making it an HLC bar chart. The height of each OHLC and HLC bar indicates the price range for that period with the high at the top of the bar and the low at the bottom of the bar. Each OHLC and HLC bar has a small horizontal tick to the right of the bar to indicate the close price for that period. An OHLC bar will also have a small horizontal tick to the left of the bar to indicate the open price for that period. The extra information is one of the reasons why the OHLC charts are more popular than HLC charts. In addition, some charting applications
  • 21. use colors to indicate bullish or bearishness of a bar in relation to the close of the previous bar. This makes the OHLC bar chart quite similar to the candlestick chart, except that the OHLC chart does not indicate bullishness or bearishness of the period of one bar as clearly as the candlestick chart (the color of an OHLC bar is always in relation to the close of the pervious bar rather than the open and close of the current bar).
  • 22. Fig Showing Bar Chart (OHLC) 3. Candlesticks Charts Japanese candlestick charts form the basis of the oldest form of technical analysis. They were developed in the 17th century by a Japanese rice trader named Homma. Candlestick charts provide the same information as OHLC bar charts, namely open price, high price, low price and close price, however, candlestick charting also provide a visual indication of market psychology, market
  • 23. sentiment, and potential weakness, making it a rather valuable trading tool. Candlesticks indicate a bullish up bar, when the closing price is higher than the opening price, using a light color such as white or green, and a bearish down bar, when the closing price is lower than the opening price, using a darker color such as black or red for the real body of the candlestick. Thus, on a green candlestick, the close price will be at the top of the candlestick real body and the open price at the bottom as the close price is higher than the open price; conversely on a red bar the close price will be at the bottom of the candlestick real body and the open price at the top as the close price is lower than the open price. For both a bullish and a bearish candlestick, the high price and the low and the
  • 24. low price for the session will be indicated by the top and bottom of the thin vertical line above and below the real body. This vertical line is called the shadow or the wick. The shape and color of a candlestick can change several times during its formation. Therefore the trader must wait for the candlestick to be formed completely at the end of the time-frame to analyze the candlestick, forcing the trader to wait for the bar to close.
  • 25. Fig- Showing Candlesticks Chart On Nifty Daily 4. Candlesticks Patterns 1. Bullish Engulfing
  • 26. Bullish Engulfing is an important bottom reversal pattern. It appears after a downtrend. It's a two candlestick pattern. In this, a large white candle completely engulfs the preceding small black candle. Though it is not necessary for the white candle to engulf the shadows of the previous black candle, it should engulf the entire real body. It's an important bullish reversal signal. Heavy volume on second day of the pattern creates higher probability of trend reversal.
  • 27. Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern around 460 price level , We will enter this trade around Rs.470, And exit At 530 where candles are forming a hanging man patter which is an reversal pattern. 2. Bearish Engulfing Bearish Engulfing is one of the important bearish reversal patterns. It appears after an uptrend. It's a two candlestick pattern. In this, a large black candle completely engulfs the preceding small white candle. Though it is not necessary for the black candle to engulf the shadows of the previous white candle, it should engulf the entire real body. Heavy
  • 28. volume on second day of the pattern creates higher probability of trend reversal. Fig Showing: Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed at 480 price level on 10-feb-2014 . We can short sell this stock at around Rs.487 and can buy back around Rs.465, where Bullish Harami pattern is formed.
  • 29. 3. Bullish Harami Bullish Harami is a bullish reversal pattern. It is characterized by a large black candle, followed by a small white candle. The white candle is contained completely within the previous black candle. The pattern appears in a downtrend. A long black candle is seen, which is followed by a small white candle, which is completely engulfed by the previous day candle. Shadows need not be compulsorily engulfed, but real body should
  • 30. be. The market is entering in an indecision or congestion phase post Bullish Harami. Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks Interpretation-Bullish Harami has formed Asian Paints on 21-Feb-2014 around Rs.460 price levels we can enter this stock by buying it around Rs.465.We can continue to hold this positing till there is a sign of bullish reversal. 4. Bearish Harami Bearish Harami is a bearish reversal pattern. It is characterized by a large white candle, followed by a small black candle. The black candle is contained completely within the previous white candle. The pattern appears in an uptrend. A long white candle is seen,
  • 31. which is followed by a small black candle, which is completely engulfed by the previous day candle. Shadows need not be compulsorily engulfed, but real body should be. Fig Showing Bearish Harami Candlestick Interpretation- After an uptrend Bearish Harami formed on Bharti Airtel around Rs.370 after an confirmation from next candle which shows and gap down opening. So here we can enter the market by taking a short position at Rs.360 and
  • 32. can exit the market around Rs.332 where market is reversing because of Bullish Harami formation. 5. Hammer Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which occurs at the bottom of a trend. This pattern appears after or during a downtrend. It is a single candlestick pattern. It resembles with Bullish Dragonfly Doji. The only difference is doji has same opening and closing while
  • 33. Hammer has a small real body at the upper end. Colour of Hammer is not important. However, it is considered as more potent, if its colour is white. Lower shadow of Hammer should be twice as long as real body. There should be very little or no upper shadow. Fig Showing Candlestick Patten: Hammer Interpretation- 17-Feb-2014- Hammer pattern form around price level of Rs.1100 , we can enter the trade at Rs.1100 , And till now we haven’t seen any trend reversal so we can continue with this trade, and we can exit this trade as soon as we seen any sign of trend reversal. 5. Inverted Hammer Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern. This pattern is characterized by a long upper
  • 34. shadow and a small real body, appearing after a long black real body. This pattern appears in a downtrend. In this pattern, a long black candle appears on first day. On second day, a small real body appears which forms at the lower end of range. Second day's candle has upper shadow, which is at least twice as long as the real body and does not have lower shadow. Colour of the real body is not of much importance.
  • 35. Interpretation- On 3rd Feb there is a inverted hammer followed by long black candle , inverted hammer is a bearish reversal patter , so next day’s white candle shows trend reversal so we can enter the trade around price level of Rs.470 , we can exit this trade on 10th of Feb which shows a dark cloud cover which is a reversal pattern. We can earn profit of Rs.20 per share if we exit around Rs.490. 6. Shooting Star Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern, appearing at market top. Its a small real body with long upper shadow and no lower shadow,
  • 36. which gaps away from the previous candle. This pattern appears in an uptrend. A white candle is seen on first day. Next day, gap up opening happens. This candle appears as a small real body, with upper shadow at least twice as long as the real body. It has no lower shadow. The pattern indicates that the uptrend is near to an end. Interpretation- Shooting start is bullish reversal pattern as it form at the top of the bull market; we will sell this stock around Rs.66.5 and will exit from this trade around Rs.61 as it shows bullish engulfing at the down side. 5. Support and Resistance
  • 37. Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control. 1. Support Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the
  • 38. price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support. Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous
  • 39. low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.
  • 40. 2. Resistance Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.
  • 41. Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous
  • 42. high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level. 6. Chart Patterns 1. Head and Shoulders A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder,
  • 43. a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples. 1. Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter). 2. Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the
  • 44. decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact. 3. Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy. 4. Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of
  • 45. whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline. 5. Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness— a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline. 6. Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important
  • 46. role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder. 7. Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is
  • 47. broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume. 8. Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
  • 48. Interpretation- Head and Shoulder chart pattern give sell signal after breaking the neckline, Bajaj Auto breaches the level of neckline around Rs.2067 so we will short sell the stock and we can have price target of (2067-180=1887). Downfall of price 180 is measured from perpendicular drawn from top of head to neckline. We will exit this trade around Rs.1887.
  • 49. 2. Reverse Head and Shoulder Interpretation- Reverse head and shoulder pattern in Maruti ltd. Shows the buying signal around Rs. 1546 ,and which have a price target of 1758 (i.e. 1758-1546=212) So we will enter in this trade around 1546 and we will exit around the price level of 1760.
  • 50. 3. Double Top The Double Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between. Although there can be variations, the classic Double Top Reversal marks at least an
  • 51. intermediate change, if not a long-term change, in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential Double Top Reversals can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example. 1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place. 2. First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the
  • 52. uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time. 3. Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand. 4. Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a Double Top Reversal exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many
  • 53. months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate. 5. Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent. 6. Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the Double Top Reversal and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the Double Top Reversal. This too should occur with
  • 54. an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent. 7. Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short. 8. Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.
  • 55. Figure-Showing Double Top (Coal-India) Interpretation- Under Double Top Pattern – we enter in trade when price break the support level around Rs.275 so we short sell coal India and can have potential price fall of Rs.25(i.e. difference between the second peak and support break level. We can exit this trade around Rs.245 which shows and bullish engulfing candle which is a signal of trend reversal.
  • 56. 4. Double Bottom The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between. Although there can be variations, the classic Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the
  • 57. key points in the formation and then walk through an example. 1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place. 2. First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place. 3. Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation.
  • 58. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout. 4. Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a
  • 59. trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid. 5. Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top. There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment. 6. Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. This too should occur with an
  • 60. increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent. 7. Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long. 8. Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to
  • 61. estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance. Fig showing Double bottom Interpretation- Under Double Bottom Pattern – we enter in trade when price break the resistance level around Rs.7000 so we buy Mid-Cap and can have potential price rise in price of Rs.470(i.e. difference between the second peak and support break level. We can exit this trade around Rs.7470, and book our measured profit., 5. Ascending Triangle The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they
  • 62. are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
  • 63. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount. 2. Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction highs are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them. 3. Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows
  • 64. should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid. 4. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary. 5. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this
  • 65. support level before the move begins in earnest. 6. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. Interpretation- Ascending Triangle is a continuation pattern, so after breakout it will continue with uptrend, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the
  • 66. pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.187 and can book profit Rs.60. We exit this trade around Rs.247 where chart shows Bearish Harami. 6. Descending Triangle
  • 67. The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a
  • 68. perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount. 2. Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be
  • 69. some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them. 3. Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid. 4. Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months. 5. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When
  • 70. the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary. 6. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest. 7. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.
  • 71. Figure showing Descending Triangle (Nifty Weekly) Interpretation -Descending Triangle is a continuation pattern, so after breakout it will continue with downtrend, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.5350 and can book profit Rs.800.
  • 72. We exit this trade around Rs.4500. 7. Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a
  • 73. contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time. While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example with Conseco. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
  • 74. 2. Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs. 3. Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the
  • 75. tightening consolidation before the breakout. 4. Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months. 5. Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the
  • 76. apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime. 6. Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case. 7. Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
  • 77. 8. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout. 9. Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
  • 78. Interpretation- We will enter in trade when price give breakout from triangle And then we can remain on the trade until or unless price touches the line number 1. We can exit the market as soon as it touches that , So we will enter at Rs.341 and will exit around Rs.220.
  • 79. 7. Technical Indicator And Oscillators A technical indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price data of a security. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or
  • 80. close over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced. Technical Indicators broadly serve three functions: to alert, to confirm and to predict. Indicator acts as an alert to study price action, sometimes it also gives a signal to watch for a break of support. A large positive divergence can act as an alert to watch for a resistance breakout. Indicators can be used to confirm other technical analysis tools. Some investors and traders use indicators to predict the direction of future prices. Types of indicators
  • 81. Indicators can broadly be divided into two types “LEADING” and “LAGGING”. Leading indicators Leading indicators are designed to lead price movements. Benefits of leading indicators are early signaling for entry and exit, generating more signals and allow more opportunities to trade. They represent a form of price momentum over a fixed look-back period, which is the number of periods used to calculate the indicator. Some of the wellmore popular leading indicators include Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Momentum, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R. Lagging Indicators
  • 82. Lagging Indicators are the indicators that would follow a trend rather then predicting a reversal. A lagging indicator follows an event. These indicators work well when prices move in relatively long trends. They don’t warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e., rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly. These trend following indicators makes you buy and sell late and, in exchange for missing the early opportunities, they greatly reduce your risk by keeping you on the right side of the market. Moving averages and the MACD are examples of trend following, or “lagging,” indicators.
  • 83. 1. Relative Strength Index Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally, and according to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.
  • 84. Application of RSI RSI is a momentum oscillator generally used in sideways or ranging markets where the price moves between support and resistance levels. It is one of the most useful technical tool employed by many traders to measure the velocity of directional price movement. Overbought and Oversold The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. Generally, technical analysts use 30% oversold and 70% overbought lines to generate the buy and sell signals. • Go long when the indicator moves from below to above the oversold line. • Go short when the indicator moves from above to below the overbought line.
  • 85. Note here that the direction of crossing is important; the indicator needs to first go past the overbought/oversold lines and then cross back through them. Divergence The other means of using RSI is to look at divergences between price peaks/troughs and indicator peaks/ troughs. If the price makes a new higher peak but the momentum does not make a corresponding higher peak this indicates there is less power driving the new price high? Since there is less power or support for the new higher price a reversal could be expected. Similarly if the price makes a new lower trough but the momentum indicator does not
  • 86. make a corresponding lower trough, then it can be surmised that the downward movement is running out of strength and a reversal upward could soon be expected. Figure Showing RSI Indicator Interpretation – RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a leading indicator, it gives the intimation before price takes actual moves, so as per this premise,
  • 87. and we can go short when the indicator moves from above to below the overbought line. And Go long when the indicator moves from below to above the oversold line. On 5 November 2013, RSI moves from above to below the overbought line which is and sell signal and on the same day candlesticks showing Bearish Harami Pattern which confirms the sell signal. 1. We will enter the trade at price level Rs.1210 by selling the stock and exit the market by buying it around Rs.1030. 2.We will this buy this stock again on 16th Feb 2014 where RSI moves from below to above the oversold line which is and buying signal and candlesticks showing hammer pattern which is a trend reversal patter so we buy this stock around Rs.1110 And there no trend reversal so we can continue to hold this position.
  • 88. 2. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence. It is a technical analysis indicator created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. The MACD indicator is basically a refinement of the two moving averages system and measures the distance between the two moving average lines. What is the MACD and how is it calculated? The MACD does not completely fall into either the trend-leading indicator or trend following indicator; it is in fact a hybrid with elements of both. The MACD comprises two lines, the fast line and the slow or signal line. These are easy to identify as the slow line will be the smoother of the two.
  • 89. Step1. Calculate a 12 period exponential moving average of the close price. Step2. Calculate a 26 period exponential moving average of the close price. Step3. Subtract the 26 period moving average from the 12 period moving average. This is the fast MACD line. Step4. Calculate a 9 period exponential moving average of the fast MACD line calculated above. This is the slow or signal MACD line. Use of MACD lines MACD generates signals from three main sources: • Moving average crossover • Centreline crossover • Divergence
  • 90. Crossover of fast and slow lines The MACD proves most effective in wide- swinging trading markets. We will first consider the use of the two MACD lines. The signals to go long or short are provided by a crossing of the fast and slow lines. The basic MACD trading rules are as follows: • Go long when the fast line crosses above the slow line. • Go short when the fast line crosses below the slow line. These signals are best when they occur some distance above or below the reference line. If the lines remain near the reference line for an extended period as usually occurs in a
  • 91. sideways market, then the signals should be ignored. Centre line crossover A bullish centre line crossover occurs when MACD moves above the zero line and into positive territory. This is a clear indication that momentum has changed from negative to positive or from bearish to bullish. After a positive divergence and bullish moving average crossover, the centre line crossover can act as a confirmation signal. Of the three signals, moving average crossover are probably the second most common signals. A bearish centre line crossover occurs when MACD moves below zero and into negative territory. This is a clear indication that momentum has changed from positive to negative or from bullish to bearish. The centre
  • 92. line crossover can act as an independent signal, or confirm a prior signal such as a moving average crossover or negative divergence. Once MACD crosses into negative territory, momentum, at least for the short term, has turned bearish.
  • 93. Figure Showing MACD (Sunpharma) Interpretation- 25 July 2013 , RSI shows buying signal as RSI moves from below to above the oversold line which is and buying signal and candlesticks showing Bullish Engulfing which is a buying signal and In MACD fast line crosses above the slow line which is an buying signal and Volumes are high on this day, All the indicators and Bullish Harami shows the buy signal so we can enter in the market at this point around price level of Rs. 475. And we will exit this market around Rs.570 where candles shows bearish engulfing, RSI moves from above to below the overbought line, which is an sell signal , MACD fast line crosses below the slow line which is an sell signal. So as per these signals we can exit the market.
  • 94. 3. Stochastic The Stochastic indicator was developed by George Lane. It compares where a security’s price closes over a selected number of period.
  • 95. The most commonly 14 periods stochastic is used. The Stochastic indicator is designated by “%K” which is just a mathematical representation of a ratio. %K=(today’s Close)-(Lowest low over a selected period)/ (Highest over a selected period)- (Lowest low over a selected period) For example, if today’s close is 50 and high and low over last 14 days is 40 and 55 respectively then, %K= 50-40/55-40 =0.666 Finally these values are multiplied by 100 to change decimal value into percentage for better calling.
  • 96. This 0.666 signifies that today’s close was at 66.6% level relative to its trading range over last 14 days. A moving average of %K is then calculated which is designated by %D. The most commonly 3 period’s %D is used. The stochastic indicator always moves between zero and hundred, hence it is also known as stochastic oscillator. The value of stochastic oscillator near to zero signifi es that today’s close is near to lowest price security traded over a selected period and similarly value of stochastic oscillator near to hundred signifies that today’s close is near to highest price security traded over a selected period. Interpretation of Stochastic Indicator
  • 97. Most popularly stochastic indicator is used in three ways a. To define overbought and oversold zone- Generally stochastic oscillator reading above 80 is considered overbought and stochastic oscillator reading below 20 is considered oversold. It basically suggests that • One should book profit in buy side positions and should avoid new buy side positions in an overbought zone. • One should book profit in sell side positions and should avoid new sell side positions in an oversold zone b. Buy when %K line crosses % D line (dotted line) to the upside in oversold zone and sell
  • 98. when %K line crosses % D line(dotted line) to the downside in overbought zone. c. Look for Divergences- Divergences are of two types i.e. positive and negative. Positive Divergence-are formed when price makes new low, but stochastic oscillator fails to make new low. This divergence suggests a reversal of trend from down to up. Negative Divergence-are formed when price makes new high, but stochastic oscillator fails to make new high. This divergence suggests a reversal of trend from up to down.
  • 99. Figure Showing Stochastic (Nifty) Interpretation- On Nov 1 2013 , Candlesticks shows and spinning top which shows a sign of trend reversal , RSI moves from above to below the overbought line, which is an sell signal, and Stochastic shows %K line crosses % D line to the downside in overbought zone which is also an sell
  • 100. signal so we enter the market at this point after getting confirmation from the indicators which is showing and sell signal so we will take short position in nifty around Rs.6300, and will buy back it around Rs.6000 where %K line crosses % D line to the upside, So we will gain Rs.300 per share. Same we will use for further crossover of %K and %D.
  • 101. 4. Moving Averages Moving averages One of the most common and familiar trend- following indicators is the moving averages. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays.
  • 102. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). They are described in more detail below. 4.1. Simple moving average (SMA) A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a security over a specified number of periods. It places equal value on every price for the time span selected. While it is possible to create moving averages from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving averages are created using the closing price. For example: a
  • 103. 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5. 4.2 Exponential moving average (EMA) Exponential moving average also called as exponentially weighted moving average is calculated by applying more weight to recent prices relative to older prices. In order to reduce the lag in simple moving averages, technicians often use exponential moving averages. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the specified period of the moving average. The 82 shorter the EMA’s period, weight is
  • 104. applied to the most recent price. For example: a 10-period exponential moving average weighs the most recent price 18.18% while a 20-period EMA weighs the most recent price 9.52%. As we’ll see, the calculating and EMA is much harder than calculating an SMA. The important thing to remember is that the exponential moving average puts more weight on recent prices. As such, it will react quicker to recent price changes than a simple moving average. Exponential moving average calculation The formula for an exponential moving average is: EMA (current) = ((Price (current) - EMA (prev)) x (Multiplier) + EMA (prev)
  • 105. For a percentage-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to the EMA’s specified percentage. For a period-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to 2 / (1 + N) where N is the specified number of periods. Note that, in exponential moving average, every previous closing price in the data set is used in the calculation. The impact of the older data never disappears though it diminishes over a period of time. This is true regardless of the EMA’s specified period. The effects of older data diminish rapidly for shorter EMA’s than for longer ones but, again, they never completely Disappear.
  • 106. Interpretation- Using Moving Averages, we can continuously enter and exit the market as moving averages gives crossover to prices. 1. First long position is at Rs.5830 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6190 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6190(Sell)- 5830(Buy)=Rs.360
  • 107. 2 Second long position is at Rs.6105 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6220 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6220(Sell)-6105(Buy) =Rs.115 3. Third long position is at Rs.6220 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6270 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6270(Sell)-6220(Buy) =Rs.50 4. Fourth long position is at Rs.6185 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and till now there is no sign of moving average crossover with price so we can continue to carry the position.
  • 108. 8. Fibonacci Retracements Overview Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician who was born in Italy around the year 1170. It is believed that Mr. Fibonacci discovered the relationship of what are now referred to as Fibonacci numbers while studying the Great Pyramid of Gizeh in Egypt.
  • 109. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 610, etc. These numbers possess an intriguing number of interrelationships, such as the fact that any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number and any given number is approximately 0.618 times the following number. The booklet Understanding Fibonacci Numbers by Edward Dobson contains a good discussion of these interrelationships. Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are displayed by first drawing a trend line between two extreme points, for example, a trough and opposing
  • 110. peak. A series of nine horizontal lines are drawn intersecting the trend line at the Fibonacci levels of 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. (Some of the lines will probably not be visible because they will be off the scale.) After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a Significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and
  • 111. resistance levels often occur at or near the Fibonacci Retracement levels. Figure Showing-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Interpretations – Fibonacci Retracement tools help to identify the support and resistance level in the stock by using golden ratios. So as we can see inn above chart strong resistance level are at 23.6% because price has came down 2 times after reaching 23.6% levels and strong Support levels are at around 50.0% levels because price has moved above 2 times after reaching 50.0% of price. These percentage levels are exactly the same as Fibonacci golden ratios. 9. Elliot Waves Theory Overview
  • 112. The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that themovement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the stock market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. With the help of C. J. Collins, Elliott's ideas received the attention of Wall Street in a series of articles published in Financial World magazine in 1939. During the 1950s and 1960s (after Elliott's passing), his work was advanced by Hamilton Bolton. In 1960, Bolton wrote Elliott Wave Principle--A Critical Appraisal. This was the first significant work
  • 113. since Elliott's passing. In 1978, Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost collaborated to write the book Elliott Wave Principle. Interpretation The underlying forces behind the Elliott Wave Theory are of building up and tearing down. The basic concepts of the Elliott Wave Theory are listed below. 1. Action is followed by reaction. There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move). 2. A 5-3 move completes a cycle. This 5-3 move then becomes two
  • 114. subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave. 3. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary. 4.The basic pattern is made up of eight waves (five up and three down) which are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c on the following chart. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves. Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend made by waves 1 through 5. The main trend
  • 115. is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down. Waves a, b, and c always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5. Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle. The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles. This process continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute, Minuette, and Sub-minuette waves. The following chart shows how 5-3 waves are comprised of smaller cycles.
  • 116. This chart contains the identical pattern shown in the preceding chart (now displayed using dotted lines), but the smaller cycles are also displayed. For example, you can see that impulse wave labeled 1 in the preceding chart is
  • 117. comprised of five smaller waves. Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott Wave Theory. Briefly, the Fibonacci number sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2,2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc). Each of the cycles that Elliott defined are comprised of a total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci number sequence.
  • 118. Bibliography Books 1. NCFM- Technical Analysis Module 2. Technical Analysis Of Stock Trend Strength-9th Edition (John Magee) 3. Tehnical Analysis for Financial Market Technician 4. Japanese Candlesticks Charting (Steve Nison) 5. Technical Analysis (Martin J.Pring)
  • 119. 6. Technical Analysis from A to Z ( Steven B. Achelis) 7.The Secret Code of Japanese Candlesticks - Felipe Tudela 8.Trend Forecasting with Technical Analysis Website 1. www.chartink.com 2. www.bigpaisa.com 3. www.Moneycontrol.com 4. www.stockchats.com 5. www.nseindia.com 6. www.investing.com 7. www.icharts.com