While economic sanctions loom large among the Iranian freight transport industry's current concerns, shipping liquid natural gas (LNG) is a big issue for the future. Iran's shipping sector was reported to be preparing itself for the development of LNG production in the country with the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) set to receive a fleet of vessels to cater for Iran's planned LNG exports. The NITC is due to take on its fleet of six LNG carriers in phases between 2014 and 2015; the vessels are estimated by the Fars news agency to be worth US$200-220mn. The company is expanding other areas of its fleet further - Reuters reported that the company's fleet of 46 vessels was set to increase to 74 ships in 2013. The six LNG carriers will be the first of their type in the NITC's fleet. NITC currently operates a fleet of 28 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), 14 tankers, three chemical carriers and one LPG vessel. BMI notes that the NITC's decision to add LNG vessels to its fleet is in line with Iran's LNG development strategy. The country is expected to export its first LNG in 2013. The managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), Reza Kassaei Zadeh, has stated that by 2025 Iran is planning to control 10% of the global natural gas trade. Going into the second half of 2010 operating conditions for freight transport companies in Iran remained difficult but of course, not impossible,. The main development was the further tightening of US and European Union sanctions against the country, imposed in reprisal for Tehran's nuclear programme. While this was causing real difficulties (particularly on the financing front) for key state transport companies such as shipping line IRISL and Iran Air, high oil prices and a recovery, albeit weak, in the domestic economy, were partially alleviating the position. BMI is predicting GDP growth of 2.1% this year, up from a low of 1.0% in 2009. There will be some further modest acceleration in 2011 onwards, but our five-year medium term forecast still puts average annual growth at an unimpressive 3.0%, way below the high single numbers achieved during the oil boom years earlier this decade. Iran's air freight sector will enjoy a weak recovery in 2010 with a y-o-y increase in tonnage of 0.6%, a marginal improvement on 2009. estimated figure of 636,530 tonnes. Iran Air's current difficulties sourcing aviation fuel in Europe is a downside risk to this modest forecast. The Iranian trucking business is set for strong growth, with volume hauled expected to grow 4.4% this year, and increasing by a further 6.6% in 2011. It is Iran's road freight sector, in BMI's opinion, that holds the most potential for growth over the mid term, with road freight dominating the country's land-based freight mix. Road haulage is also one of the transport modes least affected so far by economic sanctions. Goods transported via Iran's rail freight service are estimated to have been flat in 2009. 2010 in BMI's opinion should see volumes right themselves with a y-o-y growth projection of 1.5% The port of Bandar Abbas is continuing to defy the downturn. It handled 898,642TEUs in the first four months of 2010 (January 2010-April 2010), a y-o-y increase of 45.6% when compared with the first four months of throughput in 2009. For 2010 as a whole we forecast the port's growth to continue with a y-o-y increase of 8.65%. Iran's total trade was estimated by our Country Risk team to have decreased by 2.9% in 2009, brought on by an estimated import decrease of 2% and an estimated fall in export volumes of 4%. Trade is expected to pick up again in 2010 with a growth of 2.56% forecast for 2010. Over the mid term, we expect total trade to increase by an estimated yearly average of 4.2%. BMI warns of the risk potential to these forecasts. Further international sanctions would have a negative impact on throughput and publicity about the port of Bandar Abbas and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) being used for

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Iran Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
Published on August 2010
Report Summary
While economic sanctions loom large among the Iranian freight transport industry's current concerns, shipping liquid natural gas
(LNG) is a big issue for the future. Iran's shipping sector was reported to be preparing itself for the development of LNG production in
the country with the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) set to receive a fleet of vessels to cater for Iran's planned LNG exports.
The NITC is due to take on its fleet of six LNG carriers in phases between 2014 and 2015; the vessels are estimated by the Fars
news agency to be worth US$200-220mn.
The company is expanding other areas of its fleet further - Reuters reported that the company's fleet of 46 vessels was set to increase
to 74 ships in 2013. The six LNG carriers will be the first of their type in the NITC's fleet. NITC currently operates a fleet of 28 very
large crude carriers (VLCCs), 14 tankers, three chemical carriers and one LPG vessel. BMI notes that the NITC's decision to add
LNG vessels to its fleet is in line with Iran's LNG development strategy. The country is expected to export its first LNG in 2013. The
managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), Reza Kassaei Zadeh, has stated that by 2025 Iran is planning to
control 10% of the global natural gas trade.
Going into the second half of 2010 operating conditions for freight transport companies in Iran remained difficult but of course, not
impossible,. The main development was the further tightening of US and European Union sanctions against the country, imposed in
reprisal for Tehran's nuclear programme. While this was causing real difficulties (particularly on the financing front) for key state
transport companies such as shipping line IRISL and Iran Air, high oil prices and a recovery, albeit weak, in the domestic economy,
were partially alleviating the position. BMI is predicting GDP growth of 2.1% this year, up from a low of 1.0% in 2009. There will be
some further modest acceleration in 2011 onwards, but our five-year medium term forecast still puts average annual growth at an
unimpressive 3.0%, way below the high single numbers achieved during the oil boom years earlier this decade.
Iran's air freight sector will enjoy a weak recovery in 2010 with a y-o-y increase in tonnage of 0.6%, a marginal improvement on 2009.
estimated figure of 636,530 tonnes. Iran Air's current difficulties sourcing aviation fuel in Europe is a downside risk to this modest
forecast.
The Iranian trucking business is set for strong growth, with volume hauled expected to grow 4.4% this year, and increasing by a
further 6.6% in 2011. It is Iran's road freight sector, in BMI's opinion, that holds the most potential for growth over the mid term, with
road freight dominating the country's land-based freight mix. Road haulage is also one of the transport modes least affected so far by
economic sanctions. Goods transported via Iran's rail freight service are estimated to have been flat in 2009. 2010 in BMI's opinion
should see volumes right themselves with a y-o-y growth projection of 1.5%
The port of Bandar Abbas is continuing to defy the downturn. It handled 898,642TEUs in the first four months of 2010 (January
2010-April 2010), a y-o-y increase of 45.6% when compared with the first four months of throughput in 2009. For 2010 as a whole we
forecast the port's growth to continue with a y-o-y increase of 8.65%.
Iran's total trade was estimated by our Country Risk team to have decreased by 2.9% in 2009, brought on by an estimated import
decrease of 2% and an estimated fall in export volumes of 4%. Trade is expected to pick up again in 2010 with a growth of 2.56%
forecast for 2010. Over the mid term, we expect total trade to increase by an estimated yearly average of 4.2%.
BMI warns of the risk potential to these forecasts. Further international sanctions would have a negative impact on throughput and
publicity about the port of Bandar Abbas and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) being used for the alleged transport of
weapons, will no doubt tarnish the reputation of Iran's port sector.
Table of Content
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Executive Summary .5
SWOT Analysis ......... 7
Iran Shipping SWOT ......... 7
Iran Political SWOT ......... 8
Iran Economic SWOT ....... 9
Iran Business Environment SWOT . 10
Business Environment ......... 11
Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings ....... 11
Table: Middle East And Africa Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings .... 12
Iran's Freight Transport Ratings ... 13
Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 13
Transport Intensity .......... 14
Political Risk Summary ... 14
Economic Risk Summary . 14
Business Environment Risk Summary ........... 15
Legal Issues ..... 16
Red Tape .......... 16
Industry Trends and Developments .... 17
Multimodal/Logistics ...... 17
Rail ... 18
Air ..... 18
Maritime .......... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 22
Industry Forecast - Freight ............ 22
Air Freight ....... 22
Road freight ..... 22
Rail Freight ..... 22
Maritime Freight ............ 23
Trade Overview .............. 23
AIR FREIGHT . 23
MARITIME FREIGHT .... 24
RAIL FREIGHT .............. 24
ROAD FREIGHT ............ 24
TRADE OVERVIEW ....... 25
KEY TRADE INDICATORS ........... 25
MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS .......... 26
MAIN EXPORT PARTNERS .......... 27
Macroeconomic Outlook . 28
Table: Iran ' Economic Activity, 2007-2014 31
Market Overview ..... 32
Company Profiles ... 33
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) ......... 33
Iran Air ............ 36
Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data ...... 38
Section 1: Population ...... 38
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 38
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 39
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ........... 39
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ........ 39
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 39
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Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......... 40
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005 ... 40
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 40
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ........ 41
BMI Methodology ... 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 42
Transport Industry .......... 42
Sources ............ 43
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