Our forecasts for the construction industry in Slovakia remain robust. After real growth in the sector of6.0% in 2007, we estimate that construction expanded by 7.3% in real terms in 2008. In 2009, weanticipate only a modest slowdown in real construction sector growth, to 5.6%. This is above the likelygrowth rate for the economy as a whole in 2009.One significant factor supporting Slovakia's infrastructure outlook is capital spending by the government.Indeed, we forecast that such investment will increase to US$18.4bn in 2009, up from an estimatedUS$17.4bn in 2008. This should partly offset a slowdown in construction activity by the private sector.For the last four years of our forecast period ' from 2010-2013 ' our core scenario is that growth in realconstruction industry value will expand in a narrow range of between 4.5% and 5.7% per year. Thisrobust long-term picture partly reflects the ongoing upgrade of transport infrastructure.Risks to our outlook for construction and infrastructure activity in 2009 and 2010 are to the downside.Slovakia's economy could yet succumb in a much more pronounced fashion to the global economicdownturn, necessitating belt tightening by the government (which has been running a fiscal deficit) aswell as private sector operators. At the moment, our core scenario envisages that global economic growthwill bounce back in 2010, but a more protracted recession in developed economies is certainly possible,with attendant implications for Slovakia's government revenues and infrastructure investment.This quarter we introduce a detailed analysis of the outlook for Doprastav and Metrostav. We anticipatethat Doprastav may have to reign in some of its expansionist ambitions. Although the outlook for theSlovakian market is supportive, Hungary (a relatively new market for the company) is beset bydifficulties at present, with the government going cap in hand to the IMF.

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Slovakia Infrastructure Report 2009
Published on March 2009
Report Summary
Our forecasts for the construction industry in Slovakia remain robust. After real growth in the sector of
6.0% in 2007, we estimate that construction expanded by 7.3% in real terms in 2008. In 2009, we
anticipate only a modest slowdown in real construction sector growth, to 5.6%. This is above the likely
growth rate for the economy as a whole in 2009.
One significant factor supporting Slovakia's infrastructure outlook is capital spending by the government.
Indeed, we forecast that such investment will increase to US$18.4bn in 2009, up from an estimated
US$17.4bn in 2008. This should partly offset a slowdown in construction activity by the private sector.
For the last four years of our forecast period ' from 2010-2013 ' our core scenario is that growth in real
construction industry value will expand in a narrow range of between 4.5% and 5.7% per year. This
robust long-term picture partly reflects the ongoing upgrade of transport infrastructure.
Risks to our outlook for construction and infrastructure activity in 2009 and 2010 are to the downside.
Slovakia's economy could yet succumb in a much more pronounced fashion to the global economic
downturn, necessitating belt tightening by the government (which has been running a fiscal deficit) as
well as private sector operators. At the moment, our core scenario envisages that global economic growth
will bounce back in 2010, but a more protracted recession in developed economies is certainly possible,
with attendant implications for Slovakia's government revenues and infrastructure investment.
This quarter we introduce a detailed analysis of the outlook for Doprastav and Metrostav. We anticipate
that Doprastav may have to reign in some of its expansionist ambitions. Although the outlook for the
Slovakian market is supportive, Hungary (a relatively new market for the company) is beset by
difficulties at present, with the government going cap in hand to the IMF.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ....5
Market Overview....6
Global ...7
Industry Trend Analysis ... 7
Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure. 8
Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks ... 9
Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations.. 11
Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By GDP. 15
Table: The World's Fastest Growing Urban Areas .. 17
SWOT Analysis....19
Slovakia Infrastructure SWOT.... 19
Slovakia Political SWOT. 19
Slovakia Economic SWOT .... 20
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT ... 20
Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects .21
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Transport Infrastructure Overview.. 21
New and Ongoing Projects .. 22
Airports ' Latest Developments . 22
Road Networks.... 23
Railways ' Latest Developments 23
Energy & Utilities Infrastructure Overview. 24
New and Ongoing Projects .. 25
Power Plants and Transmission Grids ' Latest Developments. 26
Oil and Gas Pipelines ' Latest Developments ... 27
Construction Overview .. 29
New and Ongoing Projects .. 29
Residential Construction 29
Commercial Construction ' Latest Developments .. 30
Industrial Construction ' Latest Developments 31
Table: Slovakia ' Major Projects - Transport .... 32
Table: Slovakia ' Major Infrastructure Projects ' Utilities.. 33
Table: Slovakia ' Major Infrastructure Projects ' Construction 34
Industry Forecast Scenario ...35
Table: Slovakia-- Construction and Industry Data ... 35
Business Environment ...37
Regional Overview ' Europe ..... 37
Europe: Business Environment Rating .41
Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings... 41
Limits of Potential Returns ... 42
Risk to Realisation of Potential Returns.. 42
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Europe .. 42
Table: Design and Construction Rating.. 43
Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating..... 45
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating... 46
Foreign Direct Investment ... 47
Table: Europe, FDI Annual Inflows.. 49
Table: BMI Trade Ratings .... 50
Table: Top Export Destinations (US$mn)..... 51
Labour Force..... 52
Table: Labour Force Quality 53
Legal Framework..... 54
Tax Regime .. 55
Macroeconomic Outlook .56
Table: Slovakia ' Economic Activity 58
Political Outlook..59
Table: Slovakia Political Overview... 61
Political Ratings 62
Company Monitor64
Doprastav (Bratislava) ... 64
Metrostav SK 66
Business Environment ...68
Ratings Overview 68
Country Snapshot: Slovakia Demographic Data ....70
Section 1: Population 70
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030. 70
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Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 71
Section 2: Education And Healthcare..... 71
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 71
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030..... 71
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 72
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006... 72
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ..... 72
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012... 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 74
Construction Industry ..... 75
Sources ... 76
Project Finance Ratings Methodology... 76
Operating Risks ' Commercial Construction 78
Operating Risks ' Energy and Utilities... 80
Operating Risks 'Transport.. 81
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