East Timor Rail Master Plan Summary

EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN

PRESENTED BY

LAFAEK BESI LDA.
DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
Dili, Timor-Leste
besugao@yahoo.com

LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1 /22


124° 125° 126° 127°

Wetar
Island
I N D O N E S I A
10° 10°
Romang
Island
TIMOR-
LESTE Atauro
Biquele
a i t
Island
Alor Atauro S t r
Island Berau t a r
W e
Cape Tei
Lautém Com
Laivai Tutuala
Rantar Maínal Cape Cutchá
Jaco
Baucau
Island Manatuto
Bucóli Fuiloro Island
Metinaro Laga Los Palos
DILI Vermasse

l
Seica
Liquiça DILI Lacló Laleia
BAUCAU Luro LAUTEM
Maubara Venilale
Cape Bazartete
Quelicai Baquia
Corimbala LIQUIÇA Railaco clo MANATUTO
AILEU La Uato Carabau Loré
Cape de Loré
Ermera Ossu Iliomar
Laclubar Lacluta
Fatu Beso Aileu
Savu Sea Atabae ERMERA Turiscai
VIQUEQUE Uatolari
Aliambata
Letetoho
Maubisse Barique Viqueque

n
Tata Mai Lau

Sahe
BOBONARO (2963 m) Hato Builico
Bé Aco
Batugade
Maliana MANUFAHI Fato Berliu
Ainaro Cie Cape Deilubún
9° Same r Umaboco 9°
Bobonaro
d

e
Alas
AINARO
n
l a
Mape
Sacato Hatudo
Oecussi s Loloto
Betano
I Fatolulic
COVA LIMA
Cape
Calétec
OECUSSI r Fohorem
Kitrana Nítibe Oé Silo
o Tilomar
Suai

m 127°

Passabe i Cape Tafara

T
To
Timor Sea
TIMOR-LESTE
Naikliu

I N D O N E S I A
SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS

DISTRICT CAPITALS
0 10 20 30 Kilometers
NATIONAL CAPITAL

0 10 20 30 Miles RIVERS
8°
MAIN ROADS
JANUARY 2005

To

IBRD 33496
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.
Kuala The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
Lumpur shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank
Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
124° 125° 126°



1. CAPTION

2. RATIONALE

3. NETWORK

4. TOURISM

5. ECONOMIC FRAME

6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

7. COMPONENTS

8. FINANCE

9. COST ESTIMATES

10. SISTER PROJECTS



CAPTION

A ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EAST-
TIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER AND
CARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.

THEME

“Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no later
than 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ...
Timor-Leste’s tradition as a rural economy will have changed
markedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urban
areas, where the service economy flourishes”



RATIONALE
IT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDING
BETTER THAN ‘FREEDOM FROM WANT’ LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNG
POPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUT
AN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS.

TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO

1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE

2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS

3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE

AS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING:

RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT



THE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME AND
PACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATED
RURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEW
WILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRY
AND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERS
KNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD.

INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEM
AND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN.

INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND,
SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAY
OF LIFE.

WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY.



Roads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roads
are the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% of
freight.

BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)

Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an un-
maintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to be
in fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poor
condition.

THEN, RAIL ...

1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentally
polluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer.
2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. rail
trains consume ±80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times
more efficient.
3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydro
sites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks.


...

4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working in
cities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups and
rural communities.
5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the Electrified
Double Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimated
the EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, above
the benchmark 12% for transport projects.
6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costs
of the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability.
7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that will
greatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth).
8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains and
locomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs than
steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be less
technically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier and
cheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives.



NETWORK

CENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOS

WEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANO

EAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARI

to move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster and
safer conditions

to airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world



TOURISM

Lavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurl
staggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world class
travelers.

On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historic
cantonments are ideal stopovers.

1
Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels


Images of the World: East Timor - West of Dili to the Indonesian border: Maubara fort 4/29/12 3:55 PM

Send this Photo
as a Postcard:

Photo by Ludo Kuipers, Sun Dec 26, 2004

Maubara
http://worldpics.com.au/East_Timor/west/slides/2004122604.html Page 2 of 8



ECONOMIC FRAME

“Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleum
fund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The Petroleum
Fund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of 2010, which is up from $5.38
billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion by
the end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.”

“Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivity
in agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads,
electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enabling
environment, and a quantum increase in the country’s skills base.”

“Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recently
launched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending to
be partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.”



...

“Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nation’s
petroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed
(e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates of
return). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as this
offers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is on
concessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that the
cost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) and
expands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important to
crowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.”

The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only Developing
Asian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook,
April 2012).



Chenab Bridge Project (KRP)



DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timorese
population should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-
fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlier
projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growth
scenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annual
population growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between
2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population
density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent still
younger than 15 by 2025.

Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. The
urban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster than
the rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4
percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its present
size. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The
rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.

World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008)



PROJECT COMPONENTS

1. RAILS (CLDB)

2. EMBANKMENTS (CLDB)

3. BRIDGES (CLDB)

4. TUNNELS (CLDB)

5. STATIONS (CLDB)

6. FIELD LINES (CLDB)

7. ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE)

8. NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.)

9. POWER STATIONS (GOVT.)

10. ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.)



FINANCE

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARES

Notional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights and
profit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census.

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDS

CLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bank
with the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interest
payments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock owner
companies.

LEASEHOLD RIGHTS

All land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it is
held on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rights
are used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds).



COST ESTIMATES

500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bn

Here are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway trade
press. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipment
costs, project and financing costs.

Complete Rail Projects
Railway> Date Type of System Cost per km Distance

Madrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line €9.57 million 304 kms

Yichang-Wanzhou, China 2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 kms

Haikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10.0 million 308 kms



Yichang–Wanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will be
opened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours from
Wuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hours
from Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before).
Yichang–Wanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers
(234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province to
Wanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joins
Shanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai,
Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing and
Chengdu along the way. Because of the complex
geologic conditions, Yichang–Wanzhou Railway is
regarded as the most difficult railway project in
China. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which is
twice as much as that of Qinghai–Tibet Railway. The
total length of tunnels and bridges is about 279
kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the whole
line, hence the railway is said to be “the museum of
tunnels and bridges”.
www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latest



SISTER PROJECTS

INDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building a
line to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project
(KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed to
provide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu and
Kashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road.

Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels.

The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn).

MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), which
runs through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The project
involves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near the
existing single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis.

The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system in
Malaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportation
system in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway.

Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification is
Malaysia's largest and costliest railway project.



MATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?

FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU?

EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN,

CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY!



Uatolari


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