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Demand, supply and price of copper – an exploration perspective Eric Finlayson Head of Exploration Global Mining Investment Conference London, September 30, 2009
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cautionary Statement
Market capitalisation of major listed mining companies (US$ billion) At 1 September 09 Source: Thomson Datastream Rio Tinto – Gross asset distribution (2008)  US, 11% Europe, 13% Canada, 34% Other, 7% Australia, 35%
Rio Tinto – a world leader in mining Aluminium Copper Iron Ore Diamonds Energy Industrial Minerals
Key drivers for long term commodity demand growth remain intact Sources: Global Insight, CIA Factbook Urbanisation rates across Asia, the United States and European Union United States Japan India EU15 China Urbanisation rates, income and population Note: Size of bubble reflects  total population
Sources: 1900-1928 McGraw Hill (1931), 1929-2008 CRU Global copper consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Consumption in millions of tonnes per annum 0 5 10 15 20 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000
Sources: NBER, Rothwell, Metal Statistics 1919, LME Real prices 2008 US$ per tonne Long-term copper price ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],0 6,000 12,000 18,000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 $3,700 +/- 800 }
Source: CRU Production is dominated by a few operations Contribution of copper mines to global copper production (2009f) Grasberg/Ertsberg Collahuasi > 250 Other Mines Bingham Canyon Los Bronces Andina Batu Hijau Morenci Cerro Verde Antamina Los Pelambres Norilsk El Teniente Codelco Norte Escondida
Source: MEG Distribution of copper reserves and resources ,[object Object],[object Object],10%   4% China 5% Australia 34% Peru 4% Mexico 3% Canada 3% Russia 3% Mongolia 3% Zambia Others 10% 3% Indonesia 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Philippines Kazakhstan Poland DRC Argentina 8% Chile US
Global copper reserves - years of production Average reserve grade - % copper Source: Brook Hunt Global copper reserves and grades are falling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sources: MEG; FCX 2008 Form 10-K Mined grades will continue to fall  Reserves – Deposits with >4Mt contained copper Resources – Deposits with >4Mt contained copper Weighted average grade: 0.88% copper Total contained copper: 457Mt Weighted average grade: 0.68% copper Total contained copper: 909Mt
View of the open pit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The challenge for exploration – discovery of  new Tier 1 copper deposits Production by year 1906 - 2008 Bingham Canyon, USA
In evaluation In operation Divested/suspended Rio Tinto Tier 1 discoveries ,[object Object],Serbia Borates Jadar 2009 Brazil Bauxite Paragominas 1971 Peru Copper La Granja 2005 Turkey Borates Kirka 1963 Date Name Commodity Country Date Name Commodity Country 1947 Lac Allard  Ilmenite Canada 2000 Potasio Rio Colorado Potash Argentina 1952 Weipa Bauxite Australia 2002 Resolution Copper USA 1962 Tom Price Iron Ore Australia 2004 Simandou Iron Ore Guinea 1965 Panguna Copper PNG 2005 Caliwingina Iron Ore Australia 1967 Ok Tedi Copper PNG 2008 Sulawesi Nickel Indonesia 1968 Rossing Uranium Namibia 2008 Mutamba Ilmenite Mozambique 1979 Argyle Diamond Australia 1982 Kaltim Prima Coal Indonesia 1983 Lihir Gold PNG 1985 QMM Ilmenite Madagascar 1990 Century Zinc Australia 1991 Corumba Iron Ore Brazil 1994 Diavik Diamond Canada 1995 Orissa Iron Ore India
Greenfield exploration – the trade-off between discovery potential and country risk Porphyry with secondary copper minerals  High-grade primary copper mineralisation Western Cordillera, Colombia 4.80 Somalia 204 4.46 Democratic Republic of Congo 203 4.41 Zimbabwe 202       3.10 Colombia 116       1.40 Canada 3 1.35 Luxembourg 2 1.33 Sweden 1 Current Overall Risk Country Rank Country Risk Ratings IHS Global Insight
Copper discoveries showing depth of deposits with >4Mt contained copper Deeper discoveries are starting to appear Resolution Hugo Dummett Pebble East Heruga Kalamazoo Escondida Grasberg Chuquicamata El Teniente Andina Olympic Dam Los Sulfatos Source: MEG
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bingham Canyon – Deep Molybdenum Zone Brownfield exploration – high potential for discovery in an established operating environment
Bingham Canyon – an emerging mineral district Bingham Canyon – tip of the iceberg ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Notes: 1 -  Existing mines and funded projects Source: Brook Hunt Increasing depth . . . . . . means higher mining costs? Underground production 1  - % of global production Average 2007 C1 composite costs - (c/lb) 26% 40% 2008 2025 63 102 Open Pit Underground Copper mining methods and costs
Technology and innovation – unlocking the value of lower-grade mineral deposits View looking south La Granja, Peru ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cu > 0.75%  drill intercepts
Source: MEG Global exploration expenditures ,[object Object],[object Object],0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 US$ (billions)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summary
 

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Rio Tinto Eric Finlayson 30 September 2009

  • 1. Demand, supply and price of copper – an exploration perspective Eric Finlayson Head of Exploration Global Mining Investment Conference London, September 30, 2009
  • 2.
  • 3. Market capitalisation of major listed mining companies (US$ billion) At 1 September 09 Source: Thomson Datastream Rio Tinto – Gross asset distribution (2008) US, 11% Europe, 13% Canada, 34% Other, 7% Australia, 35%
  • 4. Rio Tinto – a world leader in mining Aluminium Copper Iron Ore Diamonds Energy Industrial Minerals
  • 5. Key drivers for long term commodity demand growth remain intact Sources: Global Insight, CIA Factbook Urbanisation rates across Asia, the United States and European Union United States Japan India EU15 China Urbanisation rates, income and population Note: Size of bubble reflects total population
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Source: CRU Production is dominated by a few operations Contribution of copper mines to global copper production (2009f) Grasberg/Ertsberg Collahuasi > 250 Other Mines Bingham Canyon Los Bronces Andina Batu Hijau Morenci Cerro Verde Antamina Los Pelambres Norilsk El Teniente Codelco Norte Escondida
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Sources: MEG; FCX 2008 Form 10-K Mined grades will continue to fall Reserves – Deposits with >4Mt contained copper Resources – Deposits with >4Mt contained copper Weighted average grade: 0.88% copper Total contained copper: 457Mt Weighted average grade: 0.68% copper Total contained copper: 909Mt
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Greenfield exploration – the trade-off between discovery potential and country risk Porphyry with secondary copper minerals High-grade primary copper mineralisation Western Cordillera, Colombia 4.80 Somalia 204 4.46 Democratic Republic of Congo 203 4.41 Zimbabwe 202       3.10 Colombia 116       1.40 Canada 3 1.35 Luxembourg 2 1.33 Sweden 1 Current Overall Risk Country Rank Country Risk Ratings IHS Global Insight
  • 15. Copper discoveries showing depth of deposits with >4Mt contained copper Deeper discoveries are starting to appear Resolution Hugo Dummett Pebble East Heruga Kalamazoo Escondida Grasberg Chuquicamata El Teniente Andina Olympic Dam Los Sulfatos Source: MEG
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Notes: 1 - Existing mines and funded projects Source: Brook Hunt Increasing depth . . . . . . means higher mining costs? Underground production 1 - % of global production Average 2007 C1 composite costs - (c/lb) 26% 40% 2008 2025 63 102 Open Pit Underground Copper mining methods and costs
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.