External seminar given at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, on 21 November 2013. Presented by Claire Sheffield from Transport for London (TfL) who leads TfL’s behavioural change unit. Presentation includes the creative use of secondary data, collecting primary data using SP/SI and developing your own bespoke models, with a strong practical focus.

1. Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch:
what to do when you don't have a model available
Leeds University seminar
21st November 2013

2. Introduction – who am I?
•
Policy Analysis Manager in Transport
for London’s Group Planning
department.
•
Manage a small team responsible for
analysing the impact of emerging
policies, specialising in travel
behaviour change.
•
Particularly specialise in looking at
cross-cutting policy interventions and
‘minor’ or unusual modes, such as
cycling.
•
See our publications at:
www.tfl.gov.uk/travelinlondon
TfL Planning
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3. The Mayor’s vision for cycling is that 5% of all journeys will
be made by bike in 2026, around 400% more than in 2001
“I’m determined to turn London into a cyclised city – a civilised city
where people can ride their bikes safely and easily in a pleasant
environment ... Put simply, it’s the best way to get around our city.”
Boris Johnson, Cycling Revolution London 2010
A comparison of growth in cycling to date and an estimated growth trajectory to meet the
Mayor’s target in 2026.
1.6
2026 Target:
1.5 million
cycle journeys
1.4
1.2
1
2011: on track
to meet target,
570k cycle
journeys
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Projected cycle
stages
2001 Baseline:
320k cycle
journeys
0
TfL Planning
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Actual cycle stages

4. TfL has a suite of strategic transport models available
to inform transport policy development
LTS
London-wide forecasts of
transport demand by mode
Highway Assignment
Models
Railplan
Five sub-regional traffic
models – congestion,
speeds
Public transport mode
choice & assignment crowding
TfL Planning
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5. So – what do we need to know in order to deliver the
Mayor’s Vision for cycling?
1.
What is the potential for growth in cycle travel in London?
2.
How effective are different interventions at delivering growth in cycling?
3.
What would be the wider impact of growth in cycle travel on travel by
other modes, and on aspects of life in London?
Creative use of
secondary data
TfL Planning
Collecting primary
SP and RP data
5
Developing bespoke
spreadsheet models

6. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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7. 4.3m trips per day are potentially cyclable, 23% of trips
by all modes and 35% of trips by motorised modes
Analysis based on the London Travel Demand Survey (2005-8), identifies trips currently made by
motorised modes which could potentially be cycled, based on the characteristics of the person and trip
Trips were excluded as not
potentially cyclable based on:
• Carrying heavy or bulky load
• Trip length is more than 8km
• Would take at least 20% more
time by bicycle
• Person aged under 5 or over 64
• Trip made overnight (between
8pm and 6am)
• Person has a disability affecting
their travel
• Trip made by van, dial-a-ride,
plane or boat
IMPORTANT NOTE:
There is much we don’t know
about the trips and people
making them – some could
not, in fact, be cycled, whilst
some of those trips excluded
could be cycled.
TfL Planning
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8. Analysis can inform policy making and help target resources
by describing the nature of potentially cyclable trips…
Potentially cyclable trips...
•
•
... by current
mode
Two thirds of potentially cyclable trips are currently
made by car
40% of potentially cyclable trips are made for shopping
and leisure purposes and a quarter for work
•
8 in ten potentially cyclable trips are under 5km and
would take less than 20 minutes for most people to
cycle
...by trip distance
...by journey
purpose
TfL Planning
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9. ... and identifying where potentially cyclable trips are
being made
23% of trips
originated in the 48
International,
Metropolitan and
Major town centres
– investment in
infrastructure can
be effective here
Potentially cyclable trips by trip origin
55% of trips are highly
dispersed across outer
London – suggesting
that measures that
can reach a wide
audience will deliver
best value for money
Spotlight on Croydon:
119,000 potentially cyclable
trips per day
70% currently made by car
Significant population and
employment growth planned
TfL Planning
Note that sample sizes will be very small for each
‘square’ so this map should be understood
thematically rather than analysed in close detail.
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10. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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11. Cycle Market Segmentation shows the propensity of Londoners
to cycle now & how amenable they are to cycling in future
Segment
% Londoners
Description
Propensity to
cycle
Urban living
Young, well educated, reasonably well-off and usually live in
town/city centre. Many choose to live without a car.
23%
140
Young couples
and families
Young, with relatively low car ownership and young children.
Often tight finances, ethnic background may present a barrier
to cycling.
15%
113
High earning
professional
Well educated, affluent, often working in multinationals.
Tend to use personal rather than public transport.
11%
106
Suburban
lifestyle
Average income, heavily reliant on car and living in suburbia.
Cycling for leisure is as likely as cycling for purpose.
17%
102
Hard pressed
families
Difficult family finances, and often living in inner city flats and
tower blocks. Ethnic background may present a barrier to
cycling.
21%
85
Manual trades
Mainly white with high car ownership, this segment is unlikely
to cycle with generally negative attitudes towards cycling.
5%
42
Comfortable
maturity
Older and retired people, reasonably well off, living in
suburban areas - some potential for off-road leisure cycling.
8%
30
Most
likely
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Least
likely

12. The Market Segmentation shows us where those with
the greatest propensity to cycle live (red is high)
Propensity to cycle by home postcode
For areas without a high
concentration of
potentially cyclable
trips, analysis of where
potentially cyclable trip
makers with a high or
moderate propensity to
cycle live, work and
study would help target
interventions
Note: White zones are not residential so are not coded eg: parks, industrial locations
TfL Planning
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13. Combined with the analysis of cycling potential, we can
identify the trips made by those most amenable to cycling
68% of potentially cyclable trips are made by people in the ‘Urban living’, ‘High-earning professionals’, ‘Young
families and couples’ and ‘Suburban lifestyle’ segments – shown here by trip origin. They offer the best potential
for cycling.
High density in
central London –
especially K&C,
Westminster, H&F
and Camden
Pockets in outer
London –
particularly in
Ealing, Stratford
and in many parts
of South London
TfL Planning
Note that sample sizes will be very small for
each ‘square’ so this map should be
understood thematically rather than
analysed in close detail.
13

14. Cycling potential can be assessed for each segment: the
Urban Living segment are the prime target for cycling
Live in city & town centres
Young
Well educated
Own bikes
Travel more than average
Positive about
cycling
900,000
trips
Don’t have a car
3 in 10 potentially cyclable trips
are for work purposes
33% potentially cyclable trips made
by bus & 17% by tube or rail
24% potentially cyclable trips are
to, from or within central London
Typically travelling on busy radial routes in peak periods, so
potential crowding benefit, freeing up space for other users
TfL Planning
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15. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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16. Cycling behaviour survey conducted to explore current and
potential cycling behaviour and responses to interventions
Cycling Behaviour Survey: quantitative survey conducted online in 2010 with
London residents aged 18+; around 3,500 responses .
Survey contents included:
• Current travel behaviour patterns
• Stated intentions in terms of future cycling
behaviour
• Three stated preference exercises testing
likelihood of cycling a selected trip and testing
preferred cycling environment
• Attitudes to cycling and cyclists
• Demographics
TfL Planning
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17. Londoners cycle for fitness, enjoyment, and to save money;
conversely, safety and fear are the biggest barriers to cycling
Why cycle?
Why not cycle?
Cyclists were asked why they cycle:
All were asked why not cycle (more):
• Fitness and exercise – 53%
• Safety, danger – 22%
• For enjoyment, fun, to relax – 28%
• Personal reasons (eg: health or
fitness) – 14%
• To save money – 23%
• Traffic, other road users – 10%
• To save time, it’s quick – 11%
• Do not own a bike – 8%
• Convenience – 9%
• Weather – 6%
• To get where I need to go – 7%
• Lack of facilities – 6%
• For environment reasons – 7%
• Can’t ride a bike – 5%
TfL Planning
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18. All respondents were asked to select a regular trip they
do not currently cycle – 18% would cycle this trip
Respondents were asked to select a trip they make regularly. Selected trips were
designed to be ‘potentially cyclable’, although the respondent themselves did not
necessarily say that they could be cycled. Selected trips were:
A
From home...
B
Around 20 minutes long
To a
destination
By car or public transport
... And of these, 18% of respondents could definitely and 24% could possibly
imagine a situation where they might cycle all the way for this journey; 58% would
not cycle
TfL Planning
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19. The most significant barrier to cycling the selected trip is
safety, with over ¾ of respondents deterred to some extent
Discourages at all
Discourages at all
77%
Safety
77%
Safety
69%
Need to carry items
69%
Need to carry items
59%
Time itittakes
59%
Time takes
57%
Distance too far
57%
Distance too far
56%
Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair
56%
Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair
54%
Security of bike at destination
54%
Security of bike at destination
54%
Don't own a bike
54%
Don't own a bike
53%
Need to wear smart clothes to my destination
53%
Need to wear smart clothes to my destination
51%
Personal safety from attack
51%
Personal safety from attack
50%
No/poor cycle parking at destination
50%
No/poor cycle parking at destination
49%
Too physical/hard work
49%
Too physical/hard work
Physical fitness
47%
Physical fitness
47%
44%
Expense of bike/equipment
44%
Expense of bike/equipment
No showers/facilities at destination
44%
No showers/facilities at destination
44%
Don't like cycling
38%
Don't like cycling
38%
36%
No/poor cycle parking at home
36%
No/poor cycle parking at home
32%
Don't know route
32%
Don't know route
30%
Poor health/disability/illness
30%
Poor health/disability/illness
28%
Difficult with children
28%
Difficult with children
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Completely discourages me
Discourages me to some extent
Not an issue for me
Completely discourages me
Discourages me to some extent
Not an issue for me
TfL Planning
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1. Safety
2. Carrying items
3. Time it takes
4. Distance
A
B
5. Get messy

20. Routes: Safety is important to every cyclist, but different
groups prefer different types of route & infrastructure
Cycle Route Choice Survey: qualitative and quantitative survey conducted in 2012 with London
cyclists. 2,307 respondents to quantitative Stated Preference/Intention survey, 25% response rate.
Key Findings
When choosing a route, the key considerations for cyclists are the safety of that
route and being able to avoid traffic and difficult junctions
Cyclists were prepared to travel further to cycle in cycle lanes, bus lanes, on
residential roads and in particular would travel 3 times further to cycle off-road
More confident cyclists and those who cycle most frequently tend to opt for the
most direct route
But cyclists will make significant detours to avoid junctions perceived to be
dangerous
TfL Planning
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21. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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22. Monitoring new schemes will provide evidence of what
actually works...
Barclays Cycle Hire
•
Increasing the amount of cycling travel in London. 95 per cent
of journeys were previously made by another mode or not at
all.
•
Many users are new to cycling in London; in total, 7 in 10 said
that the scheme had prompted them to start cycling in the
city or to cycle more often. Just over 1 in 8 said that using the
scheme had encouraged them to use their own bike more.
•
Scheme users say they were benefiting from it – as well as
agreeing the scheme provided a quick and convenient mode
of travel, the majority of users were enjoying using the hire
bicycles and were seeing benefits to their health and fitness.
TfL Planning
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23. ... And can be used to verify assumptions arising from
stated preference and stated intention surveys.
Barclays Cycle Superhighways
•
Delivering increased cycle flows and encouraging existing
cyclists to increase the amount they cycle. Also encouraging
use for journeys previously made by other modes and new
cycle journeys.
•
Offering a fast, direct route into central London, the routes
are mainly appealing to commuters.
•
Aspects of the routes that appeal most to users are the
visibility of the blue markings, good quality of the road
surface, and that they provide a direct route to key
destinations.
•
Cyclists agreed that they were benefiting from an improved
journey experience as a result of the introduction of the
routes.
TfL Planning
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24. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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25. TfL Planning are currently working on a Cycling Policy
Evaluation Tool, bringing together this evidence
TfL Planning
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26. Contents
Understanding the potential for growth in cycling
Analysis of cycling potential
Cycle market segmentation
Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions
Stated intention and stated preference surveys
Monitoring revealed preferences
Developing bespoke modelling tools
Conclusion and questions
TfL Planning
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27. Conclusions
•
Through creative use of secondary data and targeted data collection to
plus knowledge gaps, you can create evidence based policy without the
aid of transport models.
•
Combining analysis of trips and people gives a realistic ‘potential market’;
combined with evidence about barriers, attractors and the impact of
interventions, this can provide transport planners with the evidence about
what will work where.
•
As the evidence base grows, bespoke spreadsheet models make this
process easier.
•
Investing in monitoring provides a ‘sense check’ for assumptions made
based on stated preference and intention data.
•
Ultimately, as the evidence base and modal importance grows, we aim to
‘mainstream’ cycling in the way we carry out analysis by building it into
the strategic models.
TfL Planning
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28. Questions?
Clare Sheffield, Policy Analysis Manager
Planning, Transport for London
claresheffield@tfl.gov.uk
www.tfl.gov.uk
TfL Planning
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29. Growth in cycling won’t happen without considerable effort,
but the potential is there to deliver the growth required
Frequent cyclists already make the majority of cycle trips in London, but there remains some potential
for growth, particularly for the journey to work
Frequent
cyclists
Only 2% of London residents cycle to work but they make for around half of all London’s cycle trips
Infrequent
cyclists
There remains significant potential to increase cycle trip making amongst existing infrequent cyclists –
safety, traffic and lack of facilities are the greatest barriers to this
When asked about a trip that could be cycled 60% of infrequent cyclists said that they would possibly cycle it
‘Just like a
cyclist’
Cycling remains a minority activity – there are many people who are ‘just like’ cyclists but do not
currently cycle, offering excellent potential for growth in cycle travel
Two thirds of those in the group most likely to cycle don’t even own a bike
Others: Cycle for
fun
Non-cyclists can be encouraged to cycle through measures designed to encourage leisure travel bringing
long term transport benefits and short term benefits to health & community
7 in 10 non-cyclists would consider cycling for leisure, compared to no more than 4 in 10 for any other trip type
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30. Underlying the successes has been intelligent use of the data
we have and targeted research to fill the knowledge gaps
Central London
Cycles make up a quarter of traffic in central London in the morning peak - there is the potential to
achieve a mode share in the centre of the Capital to challenge that of other major European cycling cities
The average cycling speed is 15km, faster than average peak hour road speeds in central London
Urban
destinations
Beyond the centre, the potential is concentrated in pockets in inner London & around outer London
metropolitan town centres – boroughs here could deliver radical change
One in fourteen potentially cyclable trips start or end in the 11 outer London metropolitan town centres
Growth areas
Regions expecting significant growth in population and employment have the opportunity to ‘design in’ a
high cycle mode share through innovative transport and land use policies
Projected growth of around 1.7 million new people in London by 2031 – a 21% increase from 2011
Outer London
Huge potential exists in highly dispersed trips across outer London, demonstrating the continued need
to maintain investment in interventions able to reach all Londoners
If just 1 in 10 potential trips dispersed across outer London is cycled – delivers 50% growth on current levels
TfL Planning
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