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Getting enough votes to win
- 1. Getting Enough Votes to Win Hamish I. Marshall
- 2. About Me
- 4. “ One more than the other guy” and other lies How many votes do you need to win?
- 7. The Trouble with Polling
- 11. West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country
- 12. West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country 0.2% 145 Other 68.3% List: 93,360 Turnout 6.2% 3,966 Green 20.1% 12,766 NDP 37.5% 23,867 Liberal 36.0% 22,891 Conservative Percentage Votes Party
- 16. Reconnaissance Researching your riding
- 32. The MLS Regional Centres Suburbs
- 36. The Politics of Division Identifying a winning coalition
- 37. Four key groups Mainstream Families Younger Men Empty Nesters Retired Women
- 39. Need to gain from Libs And keep turnout up Find the Conservatives and drive up turnout (low Green appeal) Hold our own Keep turnout low Suburbs and Seniors The Battleground Lower Middle Class and Worse “The Secret Weapon” Well Off Elites “No fly zone”
- 42. STEP 1
- 43. STEP 2 1101 votes 266 votes 492 votes 723 votes 174 votes 842 votes 476 votes 1335 votes 714 votes 776 votes 1005 votes 903 votes 975 votes 674 votes 1284 votes 923 votes 774 votes 265 votes 790 votes 106 votes 1242 votes
- 46. Poll by Poll
- 48. Your voter ID Look at current supporters
- 49. Gap targeting 27 80 107 9 60 28 88 8 31 19 48 7 44 28 72 6 5 86 91 5 26 122 148 4 60 64 124 3 12 84 96 2 29 51 80 1 Gap Current Support Vote Goal Poll
- 50. Gap targeting 27 80 107 9 60 28 88 8 31 19 48 7 44 28 72 6 5 86 91 5 26 122 148 4 60 64 124 3 12 84 96 2 29 51 80 1 Gap Current Support Vote Goal Poll
- 51. Gap targeting 27 80 107 9 60 28 88 8 31 19 48 7 44 28 72 6 5 86 91 5 26 122 148 4 60 64 124 3 12 84 96 2 29 51 80 1 Gap Current Support Vote Goal Poll
- 52. Gap targeting 27 80 107 9 60 28 88 8 31 19 48 7 44 28 72 6 5 86 91 5 26 122 148 4 60 64 124 3 12 84 96 2 29 51 80 1 Gap Current Support Vote Goal Poll
- 53. Gap targeting 27 80 107 9 60 28 88 8 31 19 48 7 44 28 72 6 5 86 91 5 26 122 148 4 60 64 124 3 12 84 96 2 29 51 80 1 Gap Current Support Vote Goal Poll
- 59. “ Stay on Target” and the real enemy Getting the votes you need to win
- 61. The real enemy
Notas del editor
- The trouble with polling is that while it is exciting and interesting it often obscures the real story. Look at this graph, the blue party is ahead – that’s good for them. But how good and is it good enough? Are they doing well with the groups they need? In the areas they need?
- If you are in a core riding, us being one point ahead is great, you will win. Heck it we are ten points down you will probably win. If you are in a no hope riding, the answer is just as sure. But if you are in a swing seat, 1 point could make all the difference, it all depends where the vote is!
- There are two basic types of results map. This is one – the straight winner – who got the most votes in each poll!
- The other type which is harder to make but shows the relative strength of each party in the polls they won
- Or really complicated stuff like this. Which shows the our ID who had voted by 6pm as percentage of the vote we got in the end.
- Use West Van examples
- Explain PxP demos are really hard to make, and you will never get 100%. A lot of bad quality stuff out there, watch out. If you want them, talk to me, but watch out
- Demographics – do some of the patterns you observed fit with demographics Income Family Structure Age Education levels Fit won’t be exact – but does hold information
- If you do have one and some pretty sophisticated software you can do things like this…
- Or may demographic groups onto satellite maps… which is fun, but ultimately not that useful
- Because most of you are running campaigns in regional centres or the suburbs, there is another great tool at your disposal
- Look at MLS, go drive around, take the time. You will get a very good idea of the sort of people that live in an area by their houses.
- Let’s look at LNC as an example of what to do
- Work out the vote goals for each neighbourhood. Remember your plan. When working out vote goals there are a few rules to remember…
- Turnout is linked to income, age and education.
- You end up with something like this, a list of polls, with neighbourhoods, past results and vote goals
- It would appear at first that the most important target polls are the ones with the highest vote goal
- Actually it is the gap between the goal and current id, that makes them targets
- So despite poll 3 having a target nearly 40 votes more than poll 8, they have same priority.
- Whereas poll 5, with a pretty high vote goal is low priority, because the gap is so small.
- So the Liberals did this in the last election, knowing that no one who was pro-life was on the fence with them. They needed more women in the suburbs and they got them, this helped hold us to a minority
- Implementing the plan requires keeping in mind the real enemy.
- David Young story So when your candidate comes to you and proposes a wild new plan. Like “I think we should reach out to green voters, or scandanavians, or left handed welfare fathers,” remember: