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Your mind as a kluge:
Why you believe faulty things, and why
     instruction does not work


   Greg Yates, University of South
              Australia
       g.yates@unisa.edu.au
Basic ideas today
• That people are inclined toward accepting silly ideas
  (because they are human).
• This human trait is independent of intelligence or
  education (hence: dysrationalia)
• That your mind is a kluge, manifest with deficits
  multiple, of which you remain unaware.
• That the instructional process battles uphill against
  human nature, since (a) evolution provided us with
  clunky file sharing, and (b) our mind possesses a number
  of describable handicaps.
• (Computer analogy: File sharing or FTP, next slide)
FTP or file sharing
• File Transfer Protocol.
• Allow source computer to move a file to other computers.
• In old parlance it was FTP.
• But with the web came HTTP and Email.
• Now we have Skype, Bittorent, Youtube, etc, which are all
  file sharing programmes.
• However, you are still left with your clunky kluge of a
  brain, your carbon based pastiche of an information
  processing entity.
• But, new developments in neuroscience........
Long tradition: Documenting silly beliefs
• Listening to music by Mozart will increase your intelligence

• Most people use only 10% of their brain capacity

• If someone is staring at the back of your head you can sense
  they are looking at you
• Vaccinations are implicated in causing childhood autism



• Next slide shows percentage agreeing with the statements: Taken from
  survey of 1500 American adults, general population, Chabris and Simons
  (2010).
Long tradition: Documenting silly beliefs
• Listening to music by Mozart will increase your intelligence
          40%
• Most people use only 10% of their brain capacity
                   .                                  72%
• If someone is staring at the back of your head you can sense they are
  looking at you       65%
• Vaccinations are implicated in causing childhood autism
          .                                    29%

• Percentage agreeing with the statement: Taken from survey of 1500
  American adults, general population, Chabris and Simons (2010).
Surveys into New Age thinking
Yates, G.C.R. & Chandler, M. (2000). Where have all the skeptics
gone? Patterns of New Age beliefs and anti-scientific attitudes in
preservice teachers. Research in Science Education, 30, 377-
387.
Barnes A., Abd-El-Fattah, S., Chandler, M., & Yates, G.C.R.
(2008). New Age beliefs among teacher education students.
Critical and Creative Thinking, 16 (2), 23-37.
The star signs (astrology) can be used to
analyse our personality makeup.
Totally      Generally    Slightly     No           Slightly   Generally Totally
unbelievable unbelievable unbelievable particular   believable believable believable
                                       opinion




     Scored as 1 to 7, so 4 is the midpoint, intended for fence
                                sitting.
Barnes et al., 2008 (n = 362)

                      Statement                       Mean       %        %
                                                      (SD)     Skeptic Believer
14
     Extra-terrestrial craft, known as UFOs,        2.74 (1.7)   62       18
     sometimes visit the earth
6
     Past lives (i.e. earlier reincarnations) can   2.9 (1.7)    58      21
     be uncovered through hypnosis
4
     Certain crystals possess magical healing       2.98 (1.6)   56      21
     properties
1
     The star signs (astrology) can be used to      3.15 (1.8)   54      33
     analyse our personality makeup
7
     The spirit world can be contacted through      3.5 (1.8)    48      34
     séances or through psychic people known
     as mediums
3
     Although he wrote over 400 years ago, the      3.84 (1.2)   24      23
     philosopher and seer Nostradamus
     accurately predicted the course of modern
     history
     Overall New Age tally (out of 42)              19.1 (7.0)   42      25
Findings about New Age beliefs
• Items naturally intercorrelate. Using traditional factor analyses, we
  always get a well-defined factor.
• But we have yet to find any other trait that will correlate with this.
  Disappointingly, it did NOT correlate with attitudes towards science,
  or general knowledge.
• We have also tried optimism, belief in fixed intelligence, disposition to
  approach or avoid arguments, need for cognition, measures of book
  reading, television viewing, student age, year level, and GPA.
• No gender effects.
• SO WHY DO INTELLIGENT PEOPLE BELIEVE IN NA?
Reflection
• You have a friend who keeps talking about
  star signs as though they were true.
• What is driving this?
• What reinforcers does this behaviour elicit?
• Is he or she “genuine” or just “fun”?
• Is he or she “lacking”? If so, then, in what?
Is the mind a kluge?
• Origins of word unknown. But possibly from
  engineering?
• An inelegant solution to a problem
• Yes, but it is a solution.
• It is heuristic ... Useful ... But less than perfect.
• The klugey solution brings with it consequences seen
  as ‘limitations’, ‘side effects’, ‘faults’, ‘unplanned
  circumstances’, ‘design problems’, ‘flaws’, …… or
  sometimes even ‘irrational’.
Kluges as products of evolution
• Evolution builds things (could be known as
  ‘advances’, ‘development’, ‘progress’, or
  ‘emergent complex systems’).
• But during evolution, the system cannot be taken
  offline.
• Hence, evolutionary building implies innovation
  on top of an old system.
• We end up with compromises.
Some common kluges
• Any large city. E.g., European capitols that are
  nightmares for planning, sewerage, roads, and
  transport services.
• QWERTY is not the most efficient arrangement.
  But it is good enough: so cannot be replaced (e.g.,
  by Dvorak, which is only slightly better).
• SO, IS THE HUMAN BRAIN A KLUGE? Yes, says
  Gary Marcus.
Four areas of kluges
• K1 Perception
• K2 Memory
• K3 The facile way we process information
• K4 How we make decisions
• (BTW: Looking for synonyms, I popped “error”
  into Hyperdictionary.com, and got 120 hits)
K1: Perceptual processing

• The IB effect: The basketball counting task
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY

• Inattentional blindness (and Change blindness)
Inattentional Blindness
• In most experiments, 50% to 60% show IB effect
• IB effect is not itself an individual difference trait.
• Although some people may stop counting to stare at the
  gorilla, the IB effect itself does not appear to be related
  primarily to eye tracking.
• The IB effect is unrelated to any known trait (except expertise
  in the domain area, i.e. basketball).
• Invariably, the people who saw the gorilla cannot believe that
  others actually failed to see it.
• This belief is called this “the illusion of attention”
However, a factor known to predict IB
Clifasefi S.L., Takarangi, M.K.T. & Bergmann, J.S. (2006). Blind drunk: The effects of alcohol on
inattentional blindness. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 20, 697-704.

Controlled lab study: The table below show percentage of adults who saw the gorilla, where half
had been given drink to BAL 0.04, others given tonic water (18% represents abysmal performance).




                                    Given Alcohol              Given Tonic
            Told given                   18%                        42%
            alcohol
            Told given                   18%                        50%
            tonic water
Other Very Good Humorous Videos

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwwlJtnwA8&featu
   Richard Wiseman’s video on the gorilla effect.
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBPG_OBgTWg
  Derren Brown doing the person swap experiment.
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDLLf_WCyZ4&featu
  Dr Wiseman’s card trick: Absolutely superb film. So
  well made. If this link fails, try the one below.
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDLLf_WCyZ4&NR=1
We look, but do not always see
• We fail to see objects when the mind is engrossed
  in demanding activity. Video camera studies
  suggest 80% car accidents are due to inattention
  (but admitted by 20%).
• Change blindness: Failure to apprehend slow
  changes over time, even when putatively paying
  attention and well-motivated.
• Failure to detect when actors switch places.
• Many hilarious examples taken from movies
  where continuity errors remain after films
  release, too late to alter: There is a website.
Why are continuity errors common?
• http://www.moviemistakes.com
• The King’s Speech: Elizabeth meets Lionel for
  the first time. Apparently, her face netting
  disappears and reappears between cameras.
Yet, millions of people see the film without
noticing such things. (That is, unless you are
looking for it).
One curious feature of such websites are that
they are always being added to. The original
1977 Star Wars has had 266 errors identified.
Labels genuinely affect perceptions
• The same wine tastes better when given an
  expensive price tag (Plassman et al., 2008).
  The effect was replicated using brain scans.
• Medical study find the more expensive pills
  more effective in dulling pain, even when all
  pills were placebos (Waber et al., 2008).
• OVERALL CONCLUSION: Our perceptual
  system is flaky. We are neither computers nor
  video recorders. We are only human.
K2: The Memory System
Mother of all kluges (as it gives arise to many other kluges).
We ALL suffer degrees of amnesia, varying in seriousness.
Some examples of human foibles:
• New York Times helpdesk assists 1000 people a week
  who have forgotten their password. Companies report
  that 80% of helpdesk enquiries are about passwords.
• Nearly 300 prisoners released from USA jails as result of
  DNA tests overturning eyewitness-related convictions.
  (The Innocence Project).
• A medical website lists “forgetfulness” as a symptom of
  342 medical diagnostic categories.
More Memory Lapses: Humour & tragic

• Tragic accidents attributed to “human error”
  frequently implicate memory, such as (a) pilot
  forgetting to pop landing wheels down (CFIT), (b)
  scuba diver forgetting to check oxygen tank level, (c)
  parachute jumper failing to pull the chord, etc.
• Bus driver forgetting to stop for passengers.
• But, your laptop “recalls” everything instantly and
  without error. (E.g. Value of pi).
You have such an imperfect HD
• Google “pi” and you get pi = 3.14159265
• Right under this is a URL, pi for 1 million places.
• Ok, so you use a mnemonic: “How I wish I, etc”.
• But such mnemonics exist, and are effective,
  because of your inherent biological limitations.
• Humans can develop incredible memory skills
  such as being able to recall 100 digits, memorise
  entire pack of cards, recall entire chess games, etc.
But do such memory feats genuinely improve
                  memory?
• The people who develop their memory skills do not claim that
  their skills generalise.
• Lab studies have suggested that developing a specific skill, such
  as recalling 80 digits, requires 100+ hours, and DOES NOT
  transfer to other memory tasks, such as recalling words, or
  comprehension of text.
• Despite success, these mnemonists amongst us do not report
  wide effects.
• They are still stuck with the kluge of a memory they were born
  with.(Note: There is no solid evidence for significant “cognitive
  or brain training” effects in enhancing human capacities).
Interesting book
• http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420229X
• Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and
  Science of Remembering Everything
Joshua Foer, science journalist, attends the US
Memory Championship one year, learns their
methods. Goes back later and becomes the
memory champion.
But he still forgets where he put his keys.
K3: Information Processing 1
• Human functioning only rarely enters a learning mode.
  We prefer to “perform”, rather than “learn”.
• Most functioning implies automaticity. System 1 serves
  our most immediate needs. Should it fail, we (a) make a
  slight behavioural adjustment, or (b) alter the goal to
  facilitate another System 1 solution.
• We exhaust System 1, then shift up to System 2.
• (Note: automaticity is not necessarily mindless. But
  it is not demanding, and involves monitoring rather
  than active wilful or reflective thinking).
Information Processing 2
• As much as possible, we rely on prior knowledge
  which we can use and abuse mercilessly.
• For example, we use this to skim read. (In
  preference to reading to glean new information).
  This is tied to over-confidence.
• We navigate through the Internet, but cannot recall
  or reproduce our search histories.
• We pontificate and make judgements without
  caring to take in relevant information.
• We speak to others, but do we really listen?
Principle of least effort
      (sometimes “Principle of least resistance”)
“Principle of least effort” first used by animal behaviourists
in 1920s, then applied to human behaviour by George Zipf in
1949.
Reinterpreted by Herbert Simon (1955)and others:
• Your mind has limited resources.
• Heuristic processing is fast and easy.
• Intuitive heuristic processes will be used unless there
  exists a special need.
• Overall, heuristics will work well for you, most of the time.
  May be referred to as ‘satisficing’.
K4: Universal Flaws in Human Decision
                   Making

• Confirmatory bias
• Premature closure and cognitive miserliness
• Anecdotal error: a story stands for ‘truth’
• Generalise from tiny samples.
• Failure to access data from memory, so instead, we
  base decisions upon ANY information that is
  currently available, including how we currently
  feel.
Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011).
Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of National
        Academy of the Sciences, 108 (17), 6889-6892.
         (Note: A graphic portrayal of the ego depletion effect)
        • Click to edit Master text styles
            – Second level
            – Third level
                 • Fourth level
                     – Fifth level
Huge body of research into biases and
     heuristics (estimated 1000+ studies)
• Greg’s list
• Is it depressing? Historically, two positions seem
  evident in this literature. A, and B
• A: As humans we evidence mistakes: We are puny,
  often irrational, biased, and easily influenced.
• B: As humans we are efficient and economical in
  how we allocate limited mental resources. Hence,
  occasional slips are more the cost of operating such
  efficient machinery (Gigerenzer)
My Friend’s Neighbour
• My friend often sees a man across the fence, in
  his backyard, almost every Sunday afternoon.
  He is short, slightly overweight, balding, has
  glasses, and sits in a comfortable chair reading
  a book.
• More likely he is :
(A) a university professor, (B) a bus driver.
The Linda Problem
• Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very
  bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
  she was deeply concerned with issues of
  discrimination and social justice, and also
  participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
(A) Linda is a bank teller.
(B) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist
movement.
The Kauri Tree.
This problem is given in two forms to different groups:
Form A value is in text below, with the Form B value in
square brackets:
Priming question. Is the tallest Kauri tree in New
Zealand more or less than 10 [100] metres tall?
(Person responds either more, or less).
Critical question: How tall do you think the
tallest Kauri tree in New Zealand is? _________
The Marriage Problem


• Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is looking at
  George. Jack is married, but George is not.
• Question: Is a married person looking at an
  unmarried person?
• (a) Yes (b) No (c) Cannot be determined
Syllogisms
All living things need water.
Citrus trees need water.
Therefore, citrus trees are living
things.


• Is this argument correct?
Such problems expose our klugey brain
• Neighbour problem shows base-rate neglect.
• Linda problem shows fallacy of conjunction.
• Kauri tree height demonstrate anchoring effects.
  (Note, in controlled experiments even when people are
  told of anchoring, they still fail to ignore the anchor or
  adjust enough for it).
• Marriage problem (and also the water problem),
  demonstrate the cognitive miser effect. The water
  problem also shows failure to decouple the question
  from activated, but specious, knowledge.
A Re-assurance
• Performances on these types of problems is
  basically UNRELATED to IQ. These problems
  do not inherently tap mental capacities.
• Such problems were often developed and trialled
  using students from top-tier universities, around
  the world.
• But they do seem to relate to tendencies to take
  care, and to be rational in your thinking. (Big
  debate headed by the writings of Keith Stanovich
  about what IQ tests miss out).
Coda: Why instruction fails
• Students’ attentional patterns. We might expect inattentional
  blindness in about half the class, any one moment.
• We a lack a File Transfer Protocol. There is no mechanism available
  for dumping across from one mind to another.
• Instead “The processes of human cognition constitute a natural
  information processing system that mimics the system that gave arise
  to human cognitive architecture: evolution by natural selection”,
  (Sweller, 2010).
• “Evolution by natural selection has driven the evolution of human
  cognition to mimic the functions of evolution itself “ (Sweller, 2007).
Natural klugey limits on our ability to learn
• Attentional dispositions, including premature closure in
  information search (a cognitive miser effect)
• Working memory capacity (stores 7, but operates <4 ).
• The misuse of prior knowledge in “know-it-all” effects.
• The problem of overconfidence (judgements of learning effects).
  The idea that you can accurately know how much you have learnt
  IMMEDIATELY AFTER learning appears wrong. (JOL becomes
  better after some delay).
• The depletion of the ego: you may only have several (5 to 10)
  minutes of intensive System 2 functioning before energy is
  relatively depleted. You are then motivated to conserve mental
  energy. But we are probably quite unaware of the existence of
  this effect.
Other kluges that may constrain learning
We base decisions on tiny samples, but rarely on
statistical information. Why not? Because such
data do not apply to the self.
• Hence, we believe that factors that influence
  others would not impact the self. (E.g.
  commercials affect others, not me).(Other
  people are biased, but not me).
• Hence, we quickly dismiss any notion since
  “that idea is wrong as I know a person who....”
  or “this might apply to others but not me...”
Implications 1: Defining human nature
• We have no basis for believing that novices are
  naturally efficient in their learning or thinking. It
  behoves us to be familiar with human limitations.
• Since we have no FTP, learning by direct assimilation
  is biologically impossible. Osmosis is not a learning
  process: Exposure may be a necessary, but never a
  sufficient condition for learning.
• If we expect people to learn, but fail to respect their
  human dispositions and limitations, then, are we
  projecting unrealistic, idealistic, possibly romantic,
  views of human nature onto them?
Implications 2: How can we teach?
• Instead, learning occurs once the person attends to an
  input, represents it within working memory, relates the
  representation to schemata within long term memory,
  generates a response, and monitors feedback. This entire
  process is delimited by the realities of human cognitive
  architecture, i.e. cognitive load.
• We can respect the load imposed by the instructional
  environment upon the individual, and use sound
  instructional principles, as defined by load theory, as basal
  teaching strategies.
Implications 3: Social design
• We can see human error as a natural part of life and an outcome of
  klugey design.
• We need to recognise planning fallacies.
• We need to build systems that will not crash when the human does.
• We need to ensure that socially-relevant decisions do not hinge
  upon arbitrary discretionary powers residing in a single mind.
• Moral position: that people need to recognise they are part of the
  shared human social enterprise, rather than see themselves as
  egotistical on-off prototypes unrelated to the rest of humankind.
The lesser known klugy quotes
• If it works, do not fix it   (Anon, undated)
• A kluge! A kluge! My kingdom for a kluge
  (Richard III, Shakespeare, 1594).
• A kluge by any other name would smell as
  sweet                         (1600).
• Out, out, dammed kluge           (1603).
Is this your high school memory? Sonnet 18


• Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day? Thou
  are more lovely, ...................... ............ though a
  wee bit klugey.



• (Collected sonnets, 1609)
References
• Chabris, C. & Simons, D. (2010). The invisible gorilla. New York: Crown Harper Collins.
• Marcus, G. (2008). Kluge: the haphazard construction of the human mind. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
• Plassman, H.D et al. (2008). Marketing actions can modulate neural representations of experienced
  pleasantness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (3), 1050-1054.
• Stanovich, K. (2010). Rationality and the reflective mind. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Sweller, J. (2007). Evolutionary biology and educational psychology. In Carlson, J.S. & Levin, J.R. (Eds),
  Educating the evolved mind. (pp165-175). Greenwich, CT: Information Age.
• Waber, R.L. et al. (2008). Commercial features of placebos and therapeutic efficiency. Journal of the
  American Medical Association, 299 (9), 1016-1017.
Can superstition kill? Japan in 1966
• Infant mortality level was 7.34 per 100,000. In the years before
  and after it was 5.48.
• For girls only the same figures were 7.78 and 4.97.
• Also the reported number of births in 1996 dropped by 25%
  (from 18.7 to 13.7), and abortion level rose from 30.6 to 43.7, or
  42%
• Birth year, 1966 (Year of the Fire-horse), is considered unlucky,
  especially in girls. Implication: “Mabiki” or infanticide was
  practiced.
• Kahu, K. (1975). Were girl babies sacrificed to a folk superstition
  in 1966 in Japan? Annals of human biology, 2, 391-393
Aftermath of 9/11/2001
• Within USA, level of air travel reduces, and road use
  increases. But air travel is actually safer.
• Road accident rate show increase over a 12 month period,
  Nov 2001 to Nov 2002, then settles down to baseline levels.
• During this 12-month period, road deaths are above
  expected level by 1500.


• Gigerenzer, G. (2006). Out of the frying pan into the fire:
  Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis, 26,
  347-351.

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Yates kluge

  • 1. Your mind as a kluge: Why you believe faulty things, and why instruction does not work Greg Yates, University of South Australia g.yates@unisa.edu.au
  • 2. Basic ideas today • That people are inclined toward accepting silly ideas (because they are human). • This human trait is independent of intelligence or education (hence: dysrationalia) • That your mind is a kluge, manifest with deficits multiple, of which you remain unaware. • That the instructional process battles uphill against human nature, since (a) evolution provided us with clunky file sharing, and (b) our mind possesses a number of describable handicaps. • (Computer analogy: File sharing or FTP, next slide)
  • 3. FTP or file sharing • File Transfer Protocol. • Allow source computer to move a file to other computers. • In old parlance it was FTP. • But with the web came HTTP and Email. • Now we have Skype, Bittorent, Youtube, etc, which are all file sharing programmes. • However, you are still left with your clunky kluge of a brain, your carbon based pastiche of an information processing entity. • But, new developments in neuroscience........
  • 4. Long tradition: Documenting silly beliefs • Listening to music by Mozart will increase your intelligence • Most people use only 10% of their brain capacity • If someone is staring at the back of your head you can sense they are looking at you • Vaccinations are implicated in causing childhood autism • Next slide shows percentage agreeing with the statements: Taken from survey of 1500 American adults, general population, Chabris and Simons (2010).
  • 5. Long tradition: Documenting silly beliefs • Listening to music by Mozart will increase your intelligence 40% • Most people use only 10% of their brain capacity . 72% • If someone is staring at the back of your head you can sense they are looking at you 65% • Vaccinations are implicated in causing childhood autism . 29% • Percentage agreeing with the statement: Taken from survey of 1500 American adults, general population, Chabris and Simons (2010).
  • 6. Surveys into New Age thinking Yates, G.C.R. & Chandler, M. (2000). Where have all the skeptics gone? Patterns of New Age beliefs and anti-scientific attitudes in preservice teachers. Research in Science Education, 30, 377- 387. Barnes A., Abd-El-Fattah, S., Chandler, M., & Yates, G.C.R. (2008). New Age beliefs among teacher education students. Critical and Creative Thinking, 16 (2), 23-37.
  • 7. The star signs (astrology) can be used to analyse our personality makeup. Totally Generally Slightly No Slightly Generally Totally unbelievable unbelievable unbelievable particular believable believable believable opinion Scored as 1 to 7, so 4 is the midpoint, intended for fence sitting.
  • 8. Barnes et al., 2008 (n = 362) Statement Mean % % (SD) Skeptic Believer 14 Extra-terrestrial craft, known as UFOs, 2.74 (1.7) 62 18 sometimes visit the earth 6 Past lives (i.e. earlier reincarnations) can 2.9 (1.7) 58 21 be uncovered through hypnosis 4 Certain crystals possess magical healing 2.98 (1.6) 56 21 properties 1 The star signs (astrology) can be used to 3.15 (1.8) 54 33 analyse our personality makeup 7 The spirit world can be contacted through 3.5 (1.8) 48 34 séances or through psychic people known as mediums 3 Although he wrote over 400 years ago, the 3.84 (1.2) 24 23 philosopher and seer Nostradamus accurately predicted the course of modern history Overall New Age tally (out of 42) 19.1 (7.0) 42 25
  • 9. Findings about New Age beliefs • Items naturally intercorrelate. Using traditional factor analyses, we always get a well-defined factor. • But we have yet to find any other trait that will correlate with this. Disappointingly, it did NOT correlate with attitudes towards science, or general knowledge. • We have also tried optimism, belief in fixed intelligence, disposition to approach or avoid arguments, need for cognition, measures of book reading, television viewing, student age, year level, and GPA. • No gender effects. • SO WHY DO INTELLIGENT PEOPLE BELIEVE IN NA?
  • 10. Reflection • You have a friend who keeps talking about star signs as though they were true. • What is driving this? • What reinforcers does this behaviour elicit? • Is he or she “genuine” or just “fun”? • Is he or she “lacking”? If so, then, in what?
  • 11. Is the mind a kluge? • Origins of word unknown. But possibly from engineering? • An inelegant solution to a problem • Yes, but it is a solution. • It is heuristic ... Useful ... But less than perfect. • The klugey solution brings with it consequences seen as ‘limitations’, ‘side effects’, ‘faults’, ‘unplanned circumstances’, ‘design problems’, ‘flaws’, …… or sometimes even ‘irrational’.
  • 12. Kluges as products of evolution • Evolution builds things (could be known as ‘advances’, ‘development’, ‘progress’, or ‘emergent complex systems’). • But during evolution, the system cannot be taken offline. • Hence, evolutionary building implies innovation on top of an old system. • We end up with compromises.
  • 13. Some common kluges • Any large city. E.g., European capitols that are nightmares for planning, sewerage, roads, and transport services. • QWERTY is not the most efficient arrangement. But it is good enough: so cannot be replaced (e.g., by Dvorak, which is only slightly better). • SO, IS THE HUMAN BRAIN A KLUGE? Yes, says Gary Marcus.
  • 14. Four areas of kluges • K1 Perception • K2 Memory • K3 The facile way we process information • K4 How we make decisions • (BTW: Looking for synonyms, I popped “error” into Hyperdictionary.com, and got 120 hits)
  • 15. K1: Perceptual processing • The IB effect: The basketball counting task • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY • Inattentional blindness (and Change blindness)
  • 16. Inattentional Blindness • In most experiments, 50% to 60% show IB effect • IB effect is not itself an individual difference trait. • Although some people may stop counting to stare at the gorilla, the IB effect itself does not appear to be related primarily to eye tracking. • The IB effect is unrelated to any known trait (except expertise in the domain area, i.e. basketball). • Invariably, the people who saw the gorilla cannot believe that others actually failed to see it. • This belief is called this “the illusion of attention”
  • 17. However, a factor known to predict IB Clifasefi S.L., Takarangi, M.K.T. & Bergmann, J.S. (2006). Blind drunk: The effects of alcohol on inattentional blindness. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 20, 697-704. Controlled lab study: The table below show percentage of adults who saw the gorilla, where half had been given drink to BAL 0.04, others given tonic water (18% represents abysmal performance). Given Alcohol Given Tonic Told given 18% 42% alcohol Told given 18% 50% tonic water
  • 18. Other Very Good Humorous Videos • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwwlJtnwA8&featu Richard Wiseman’s video on the gorilla effect. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBPG_OBgTWg Derren Brown doing the person swap experiment. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDLLf_WCyZ4&featu Dr Wiseman’s card trick: Absolutely superb film. So well made. If this link fails, try the one below. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDLLf_WCyZ4&NR=1
  • 19. We look, but do not always see • We fail to see objects when the mind is engrossed in demanding activity. Video camera studies suggest 80% car accidents are due to inattention (but admitted by 20%). • Change blindness: Failure to apprehend slow changes over time, even when putatively paying attention and well-motivated. • Failure to detect when actors switch places. • Many hilarious examples taken from movies where continuity errors remain after films release, too late to alter: There is a website.
  • 20. Why are continuity errors common? • http://www.moviemistakes.com • The King’s Speech: Elizabeth meets Lionel for the first time. Apparently, her face netting disappears and reappears between cameras. Yet, millions of people see the film without noticing such things. (That is, unless you are looking for it). One curious feature of such websites are that they are always being added to. The original 1977 Star Wars has had 266 errors identified.
  • 21. Labels genuinely affect perceptions • The same wine tastes better when given an expensive price tag (Plassman et al., 2008). The effect was replicated using brain scans. • Medical study find the more expensive pills more effective in dulling pain, even when all pills were placebos (Waber et al., 2008). • OVERALL CONCLUSION: Our perceptual system is flaky. We are neither computers nor video recorders. We are only human.
  • 22. K2: The Memory System Mother of all kluges (as it gives arise to many other kluges). We ALL suffer degrees of amnesia, varying in seriousness. Some examples of human foibles: • New York Times helpdesk assists 1000 people a week who have forgotten their password. Companies report that 80% of helpdesk enquiries are about passwords. • Nearly 300 prisoners released from USA jails as result of DNA tests overturning eyewitness-related convictions. (The Innocence Project). • A medical website lists “forgetfulness” as a symptom of 342 medical diagnostic categories.
  • 23. More Memory Lapses: Humour & tragic • Tragic accidents attributed to “human error” frequently implicate memory, such as (a) pilot forgetting to pop landing wheels down (CFIT), (b) scuba diver forgetting to check oxygen tank level, (c) parachute jumper failing to pull the chord, etc. • Bus driver forgetting to stop for passengers. • But, your laptop “recalls” everything instantly and without error. (E.g. Value of pi).
  • 24. You have such an imperfect HD • Google “pi” and you get pi = 3.14159265 • Right under this is a URL, pi for 1 million places. • Ok, so you use a mnemonic: “How I wish I, etc”. • But such mnemonics exist, and are effective, because of your inherent biological limitations. • Humans can develop incredible memory skills such as being able to recall 100 digits, memorise entire pack of cards, recall entire chess games, etc.
  • 25. But do such memory feats genuinely improve memory? • The people who develop their memory skills do not claim that their skills generalise. • Lab studies have suggested that developing a specific skill, such as recalling 80 digits, requires 100+ hours, and DOES NOT transfer to other memory tasks, such as recalling words, or comprehension of text. • Despite success, these mnemonists amongst us do not report wide effects. • They are still stuck with the kluge of a memory they were born with.(Note: There is no solid evidence for significant “cognitive or brain training” effects in enhancing human capacities).
  • 26. Interesting book • http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420229X • Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything Joshua Foer, science journalist, attends the US Memory Championship one year, learns their methods. Goes back later and becomes the memory champion. But he still forgets where he put his keys.
  • 27. K3: Information Processing 1 • Human functioning only rarely enters a learning mode. We prefer to “perform”, rather than “learn”. • Most functioning implies automaticity. System 1 serves our most immediate needs. Should it fail, we (a) make a slight behavioural adjustment, or (b) alter the goal to facilitate another System 1 solution. • We exhaust System 1, then shift up to System 2. • (Note: automaticity is not necessarily mindless. But it is not demanding, and involves monitoring rather than active wilful or reflective thinking).
  • 28. Information Processing 2 • As much as possible, we rely on prior knowledge which we can use and abuse mercilessly. • For example, we use this to skim read. (In preference to reading to glean new information). This is tied to over-confidence. • We navigate through the Internet, but cannot recall or reproduce our search histories. • We pontificate and make judgements without caring to take in relevant information. • We speak to others, but do we really listen?
  • 29. Principle of least effort (sometimes “Principle of least resistance”) “Principle of least effort” first used by animal behaviourists in 1920s, then applied to human behaviour by George Zipf in 1949. Reinterpreted by Herbert Simon (1955)and others: • Your mind has limited resources. • Heuristic processing is fast and easy. • Intuitive heuristic processes will be used unless there exists a special need. • Overall, heuristics will work well for you, most of the time. May be referred to as ‘satisficing’.
  • 30. K4: Universal Flaws in Human Decision Making • Confirmatory bias • Premature closure and cognitive miserliness • Anecdotal error: a story stands for ‘truth’ • Generalise from tiny samples. • Failure to access data from memory, so instead, we base decisions upon ANY information that is currently available, including how we currently feel.
  • 31. Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of National Academy of the Sciences, 108 (17), 6889-6892. (Note: A graphic portrayal of the ego depletion effect) • Click to edit Master text styles – Second level – Third level • Fourth level – Fifth level
  • 32. Huge body of research into biases and heuristics (estimated 1000+ studies) • Greg’s list • Is it depressing? Historically, two positions seem evident in this literature. A, and B • A: As humans we evidence mistakes: We are puny, often irrational, biased, and easily influenced. • B: As humans we are efficient and economical in how we allocate limited mental resources. Hence, occasional slips are more the cost of operating such efficient machinery (Gigerenzer)
  • 33. My Friend’s Neighbour • My friend often sees a man across the fence, in his backyard, almost every Sunday afternoon. He is short, slightly overweight, balding, has glasses, and sits in a comfortable chair reading a book. • More likely he is : (A) a university professor, (B) a bus driver.
  • 34. The Linda Problem • Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable? (A) Linda is a bank teller. (B) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
  • 35. The Kauri Tree. This problem is given in two forms to different groups: Form A value is in text below, with the Form B value in square brackets: Priming question. Is the tallest Kauri tree in New Zealand more or less than 10 [100] metres tall? (Person responds either more, or less). Critical question: How tall do you think the tallest Kauri tree in New Zealand is? _________
  • 36. The Marriage Problem • Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is looking at George. Jack is married, but George is not. • Question: Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? • (a) Yes (b) No (c) Cannot be determined
  • 37. Syllogisms All living things need water. Citrus trees need water. Therefore, citrus trees are living things. • Is this argument correct?
  • 38. Such problems expose our klugey brain • Neighbour problem shows base-rate neglect. • Linda problem shows fallacy of conjunction. • Kauri tree height demonstrate anchoring effects. (Note, in controlled experiments even when people are told of anchoring, they still fail to ignore the anchor or adjust enough for it). • Marriage problem (and also the water problem), demonstrate the cognitive miser effect. The water problem also shows failure to decouple the question from activated, but specious, knowledge.
  • 39. A Re-assurance • Performances on these types of problems is basically UNRELATED to IQ. These problems do not inherently tap mental capacities. • Such problems were often developed and trialled using students from top-tier universities, around the world. • But they do seem to relate to tendencies to take care, and to be rational in your thinking. (Big debate headed by the writings of Keith Stanovich about what IQ tests miss out).
  • 40. Coda: Why instruction fails • Students’ attentional patterns. We might expect inattentional blindness in about half the class, any one moment. • We a lack a File Transfer Protocol. There is no mechanism available for dumping across from one mind to another. • Instead “The processes of human cognition constitute a natural information processing system that mimics the system that gave arise to human cognitive architecture: evolution by natural selection”, (Sweller, 2010). • “Evolution by natural selection has driven the evolution of human cognition to mimic the functions of evolution itself “ (Sweller, 2007).
  • 41. Natural klugey limits on our ability to learn • Attentional dispositions, including premature closure in information search (a cognitive miser effect) • Working memory capacity (stores 7, but operates <4 ). • The misuse of prior knowledge in “know-it-all” effects. • The problem of overconfidence (judgements of learning effects). The idea that you can accurately know how much you have learnt IMMEDIATELY AFTER learning appears wrong. (JOL becomes better after some delay). • The depletion of the ego: you may only have several (5 to 10) minutes of intensive System 2 functioning before energy is relatively depleted. You are then motivated to conserve mental energy. But we are probably quite unaware of the existence of this effect.
  • 42. Other kluges that may constrain learning We base decisions on tiny samples, but rarely on statistical information. Why not? Because such data do not apply to the self. • Hence, we believe that factors that influence others would not impact the self. (E.g. commercials affect others, not me).(Other people are biased, but not me). • Hence, we quickly dismiss any notion since “that idea is wrong as I know a person who....” or “this might apply to others but not me...”
  • 43. Implications 1: Defining human nature • We have no basis for believing that novices are naturally efficient in their learning or thinking. It behoves us to be familiar with human limitations. • Since we have no FTP, learning by direct assimilation is biologically impossible. Osmosis is not a learning process: Exposure may be a necessary, but never a sufficient condition for learning. • If we expect people to learn, but fail to respect their human dispositions and limitations, then, are we projecting unrealistic, idealistic, possibly romantic, views of human nature onto them?
  • 44. Implications 2: How can we teach? • Instead, learning occurs once the person attends to an input, represents it within working memory, relates the representation to schemata within long term memory, generates a response, and monitors feedback. This entire process is delimited by the realities of human cognitive architecture, i.e. cognitive load. • We can respect the load imposed by the instructional environment upon the individual, and use sound instructional principles, as defined by load theory, as basal teaching strategies.
  • 45. Implications 3: Social design • We can see human error as a natural part of life and an outcome of klugey design. • We need to recognise planning fallacies. • We need to build systems that will not crash when the human does. • We need to ensure that socially-relevant decisions do not hinge upon arbitrary discretionary powers residing in a single mind. • Moral position: that people need to recognise they are part of the shared human social enterprise, rather than see themselves as egotistical on-off prototypes unrelated to the rest of humankind.
  • 46. The lesser known klugy quotes • If it works, do not fix it (Anon, undated) • A kluge! A kluge! My kingdom for a kluge (Richard III, Shakespeare, 1594). • A kluge by any other name would smell as sweet (1600). • Out, out, dammed kluge (1603).
  • 47. Is this your high school memory? Sonnet 18 • Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day? Thou are more lovely, ...................... ............ though a wee bit klugey. • (Collected sonnets, 1609)
  • 48. References • Chabris, C. & Simons, D. (2010). The invisible gorilla. New York: Crown Harper Collins. • Marcus, G. (2008). Kluge: the haphazard construction of the human mind. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. • Plassman, H.D et al. (2008). Marketing actions can modulate neural representations of experienced pleasantness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (3), 1050-1054. • Stanovich, K. (2010). Rationality and the reflective mind. New York: Oxford University Press. • Sweller, J. (2007). Evolutionary biology and educational psychology. In Carlson, J.S. & Levin, J.R. (Eds), Educating the evolved mind. (pp165-175). Greenwich, CT: Information Age. • Waber, R.L. et al. (2008). Commercial features of placebos and therapeutic efficiency. Journal of the American Medical Association, 299 (9), 1016-1017.
  • 49. Can superstition kill? Japan in 1966 • Infant mortality level was 7.34 per 100,000. In the years before and after it was 5.48. • For girls only the same figures were 7.78 and 4.97. • Also the reported number of births in 1996 dropped by 25% (from 18.7 to 13.7), and abortion level rose from 30.6 to 43.7, or 42% • Birth year, 1966 (Year of the Fire-horse), is considered unlucky, especially in girls. Implication: “Mabiki” or infanticide was practiced. • Kahu, K. (1975). Were girl babies sacrificed to a folk superstition in 1966 in Japan? Annals of human biology, 2, 391-393
  • 50. Aftermath of 9/11/2001 • Within USA, level of air travel reduces, and road use increases. But air travel is actually safer. • Road accident rate show increase over a 12 month period, Nov 2001 to Nov 2002, then settles down to baseline levels. • During this 12-month period, road deaths are above expected level by 1500. • Gigerenzer, G. (2006). Out of the frying pan into the fire: Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis, 26, 347-351.