This presentation provides case study of how myForesight chart technology development through the use of Foresight

1. Charting Malaysia Technology
Development through Foresight
Rushdi Abdul Rahim

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Foresight…

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Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971
Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi
1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others
1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others
1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others
1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi
1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others
1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others
1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others
2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others
2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.

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5. This presentation by myForesight® - National Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License.
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Sectoral
Foresight
• Identification of Market,
Product, Technology & Skills
• Asses competencies,
Benchmarking, Scenario building
National Technology
Mapping Phase 1
(NTMP I )
National Technology
Mapping Phase 2
(NTMP II )
• Wood based
• Food product
• Machinery & Equipment
• Telecommunications
• Pharmaceutical
Technology
Foresight
• Assess competencies, Benchmarking,
Trend & Technology Scanning,
Scenario building, Delphi
• Identification of
Technology Areas
• New Key Economic Activities
• National S&T Planning
• Input to National Planning for
next 10 years
• Input to R&D activities
Input Output
Foresight in Malaysia

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6 national key result areas
12 national key economic areas
11 development areas
12 manufacturing sectors
8 non government business areas
9 National technology foresight areas
6 Mega science areas
Niche priority areas
National Focus Areas

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Foresight Malaysia in a glance…

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Foresight Methodology
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Foresight Process

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National Technology Foresight
•Execution period: May – Dec 2010
•Horizon : 10 years
•The recommendations proposed are to
support an effective implementation and
management of the Science and Technology
(S&T) agenda at the national level for the
next ten years.

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…the how
• Scanning global drivers and trends,
• Evaluating local competencies benchmarked against some of
the best in the world
• Engaging multi-disciplinary stakeholders in the country
• Vision building & Scenarios
• Recommending & prioritising the key technology areas
•

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• Scoping
• Weak signals
• Mega trends
• Drivers of change
• Plausible scenarios
• Future niche
• Future priority areas
• Strategies
Scoping Futures

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Mobilizing Futures
Strategic Policy & Content Partners :
• Ministries
• Agencies
• Universities
• Research Institution
• Industry
Strategic Industry Partners :
• Local and international
industry leaders
• SMEs
Engagement with Foresight as well as
S&T experts :
• South Korea
• UK
• OECD
• Canada
• Malaysia

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Anticipating Futures
 100+ products & services that is essential for the future
 300+ technologies to enable the products & services
In the outward-looking world,
economic sustainability
continues. In the inward-
looking world, barriers are
erected and economic
liberalisation and political
integration slows.
At one extreme, very fast development in S&T and
transformation plans were on track; at the other extreme,
slower innovation growth with the poor innovation
ecosystem hinders further progression.
Slower
Social-Economic with
Political Transformation
Inward Outward
Emergenceofnew
technologies&innovation
Entrapment
Don’t
Worry, be
Happy
Sealed in the
Time
Capsuled
Very fast
A Star is
Born

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Recommending Futures
Attractiveness
(Socio Economic)
Feasibility
(Technology Readiness)
• Economic & industrial impact;
• Competition;
• Social impact;
• Knowledge generation;
• National security & sustainability;
• Technology maturity, time horizon of impact;
• Application potential & diffusion;
• Resources & infrastructure.

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… the future of Technology

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… the technology areas
+

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… the follow up & uptakes

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National R&D Prioritisation
•Execution period: April – December 2011
•Horizon : 10 years
•The listed prioritised R&D areas will provide
the basis for resource allocation of the
country for the next 10 years and beyond.

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… the how
Benchmarking the best practises
Evaluating local R&D competencies
Engaging stakeholders & EWGs
Dedicated level of information filtering
Selecting and prioritising R&D areas

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… the recommendation
Energy
Environment & Climate change
Food Security & Agriculture
Medical & Healthcare
Cyber Security
Plantation Crops & Commodities
Transportation & Urbanisation
8
Prioritised R&D Areas

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Future Rail 2030
•Execution period: May – December 2012
•Horizon : 20 years
•Visioning that by 2030, Malaysia rail industry
will be a strong and sustainable business,
capable of satisfying the demands of the
national rail transportation; and a competitive
global player that optimises the use of
indigenous resources and technologies

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… the how
Benchmarking the best practises
Evaluating local competencies
Engaging multi-disciplinary stakeholders
Selecting & prioritising development areas

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… the outcome
Conducive rail industry eco-system
High localization of rail products & services
Competitive regional & global player
GOAL 1
GOAL 2
GOAL 3

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GSIAC - Food Security
•Presented during the 1st Inter-sessional
Meeting in New York in May 2012
•Increase of population and decreasing
amount of arable land are among the concern
and required special attention in securing
food supply

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Green Technology Scenario 2030
•Presented to Ministry of Energy, Green
Technology and Water
•Green Technology Scenarios to be executed
early 2013

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Social &
Societal
Technology
Economic &
Business
Values &
Culture
Policy &
Regulations
Environment

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myForesight®
Horizon
Scanning
Foresight
Projects
Outreach
Linkages
Mega trends & issues scanning
Foresight & future oriented Projects &
activities
Reports, publications, online portal,
workshops & training etc.
Networking, linkages & affiliation
Main Activities

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32. This presentation by myForesight® - National Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License.
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