Agile Australia Keynote - 2013

1. @RallyOn
#AgileAus
#RallyforImpact
Slides:
bit.ly/AgileCTFW
How to use Agile to
move the Earth

2. Ryan@rallydev.com
@RallyOn
#RallyforImpact

3. Dave
Douglas
David
Snowden
Kembel
Brothers
Mary
Poppendieck
Bernard
Amadei
Don
Reinertsen
Steve
Blank
Eric
Ries
Shoulders of whom I am standing on

4. Flikr
by
ListensVision
hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw

5. Two Failures of Agile – Roy
Signham, Agile Aus 2012
1. Failed at Small end –
innovating with less
2. Failed with bigger social
problems

6. Beyond Agile 1.0 – Roy
Signham, Agile Aus 2012
1. Democratize of software for
all – open source
2. Democratize development
of software globally
3. You need to Contribute

7. You are the densest
Agile Community
What did you choose
to do?

8. After my own
Thoughtworks talks
I Choose

9. Social
MISSION
Create and
Mobilize
Citizen
Engineers

10. Responsible Engineering
• Technically
• Environmentally
• Socially

12. hFp://www.flickr.com/
photos/krisN_decourcy/
7625148158/

13. 400 PPM

15. Glacial - 168 ppm
Pre- Industrial – 285 ppm
Today – 384 ppm (100 ppm in 100 years)
400
600
800
BillionTons Carbon

16. NaNonal
Snow
and
Ice
Data
Center
–
University
of
Colorado,
Boulder
hFp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
20052007

17. source: Stroeve et al, 2007 GRL!
and NSIDC 2007 Sea Ice website!
Trends of September sea ice extent - MODELS and OBSERVATIONS"
17

18. This is not an
Environmental
Problem!

19. Only one force
on the planet
large enough to
stop this

20. Business

21. Move Beyond the Sprint

22. Beyond the Release
Team Sprint/Flow
1-3 weeks
Program Release
Quarterly
Portfolio Steering
Quarterly

23. Options Thinking
The
expected
payoff
occurs
because
the
le3
side
has
less
area
than
the
right
side
Reinertsen,
Don.
Principles
of
Product
Development
Flow

24. http://jchyip.blogspot.com/2010/05/lean-software-and-systems-conference.html
(Probability
of
Failure)
Through Experiments

25. Faster Cycles
Build
Measure
Learn

26. Effec%veness
Feasibility
Sustainability
Social
Jus%ce
Increased Empathy

27. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/elestedeloeste/1265202136/

28. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png

29. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png

30. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png

31. hFp://hbr.org/2013/03/big-­‐bang-­‐disrupNon/

33. Need to be a
disciplined &
ethical
explorer
Need ability
to apply
appropriate
technologies
Supplements to create Citizen
Engineers
Engineers
Social
Entrepreneurs
hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/

34. Frame &
Empathize
Build & Ship
Test &
Measure
Learn &
Share
Empathize – Explore - Execute

35. hFp://www.rallydev.com/rallyforimpact/content/engineering-­‐soluNons-­‐fly

36. @RallyforImpact

38. Move the Earth
By Engineering
within Complexity
and Empathy

39. Engineering Assumes

40. What we are taught
and how we created
this situation

45. Civil Engineer – 1200 to 2000
Eng Physics – 3000 to 5000
In a four year
bachelors of science
degree:

46. What we assume

47. Gaussian
distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004

48. hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004
hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095
Gaussian
distributions

49. What surprises us?

50. Probabilities

51. 80 / 20

52. Power laws and Pareto distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004

53. Other Pareto distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004

54. Low probability
events have higher
impact

55. Plausible

56. An example

57. hFp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howabouFhat/6988398/The-­‐worlds-­‐tallest-­‐man-­‐Sultan-­‐Kosen-­‐and-­‐the-­‐shortest-­‐man-­‐in-­‐the-­‐world-­‐He-­‐Pingping-­‐meet.html
8’1’’
2’5’’
3.3 x

58. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308

59. Bill Gates
The
Entire
Room
650 x

60. 99.8 / 1

61. How do we make
sense of this?

62. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplex
Uncertainty

63. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplex
Uncertainty

64. Natural/
Social
Systems
Mechanical
Systems
Uncertainty

65. Where does
uncertainty live?

66. Brown,
Tim
(2009-­‐09-­‐16).
Change
by
Design
(Kindle
LocaNon
1984).
Harper
Collins,
Inc..
Kindle
EdiNon.

67. Brown,
Tim
(2009-­‐09-­‐16).
Change
by
Design
(Kindle
LocaNon
1984).
Harper
Collins,
Inc..
Kindle
EdiNon.
Level of uncertainty

68. Type of innovation
Sustaining
Brown,
Tim
(2009-­‐09-­‐16).
Change
by
Design
(Kindle
LocaNon
1984).
Harper
Collins,
Inc..
Kindle
EdiNon.

69. When to
explore vs execute?

70. What to do
Brown,
Tim
(2009-­‐09-­‐16).
Change
by
Design
(Kindle
LocaNon
1984).
Harper
Collins,
Inc..
Kindle
EdiNon.
Execute

71. What to do
Brown,
Tim
(2009-­‐09-­‐16).
Change
by
Design
(Kindle
LocaNon
1984).
Harper
Collins,
Inc..
Kindle
EdiNon.

72. Engineering within
Complexity

73. Flikr
by
_DJ_
Neurons
Synapses
Transistors
Links
Flikr
by
Jurvtson

74. .

75. We are changing
the Context!

76. Flikr
by
_DJ_
7
Billion
Energy
&
TransportaNon
Technologies
InformaNon
Technology
Flikr
by
Jurvtson

77. Jim
White,
Director
instaar.colorado.edu

78. Think like a
Scientist!

85. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplex
Do
Anything
Follow
Recipe
Analyze
Guess &
Learn

86. Do
Anything!
Follow
Recipe !
Analyze!
Guess &
Learn!
Chaotic! Simple!Complex! Complicated!
Bureaucrat!Engineer!Firefighter! Entrepreneur!
Uncertainty

87. P
r
e
p
a
r
e
P
l
a
n
Uncertainty

88. E
m
e
r
g
e
A
n
a
l
y
z
e
Uncertainty

89. E
x
p
l
o
r
e
E
x
e
c
u
t
e
Uncertainty

90. Customer
Development
(FROM LEAN STARTUP)

91. Agile = Build it Right
Agile = Mindset of
Change

92. Alpha
Beta
Ship
Oh
Crap!

93. Customer
Development = Build
the Right Thing

94. hFp://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-­‐startup-­‐owners-­‐manual-­‐sxsw-­‐11954724
Explore Execute

95. Turn Guesses
Frame
Test & Measure
Build&Ship
Learn
Into Knowledge

96. First big Guess:
We understand the
problem a customer
wants solved

97. Customers don’t care
about your solution.
They care about their
problems.
“
Dave McClure

98. Engineering with
Empathy

99. hFp://youtu.be/_vBYjx6ID4g

100. hFp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGiHU-­‐agsGY

101. 2000 – 5000
GIVEN problems
driven to a SINGLE
NUMERICAL
answer

102. Problem Space Defined
Problem Space
Solution Space
Op%on
Feasible
Effec%ve
1
2
3

103. hFps://vimeo.com/5485269

104. Some
rights
reserved
by
Marek
Mahut

108. How about an
example?

109. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/skillerphotos/7875656716

112. Design Thinking

113. Design Thinking =
Frame the Right
Problem

114. o Design Thinking

115. ?

118. Maybe a
better
way?

119. Disciplined way to
turn all this uncertainty
into knowledge

120. TAKE EACH MAJOR GUESS

121. RUN AN EXPERIMENT

122. Background: What do you want to learn and why?
Frame the Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?
Write the Problem Statement from the Define worksheet here. What pain or problem is being experienced?
[Customer Segment] needs a way to [describe job to be done], (because|but|surprisingly) [describe insight].
Hypothesis to Test
[Specific repeatable action] will create [expected result].
Is this hypothesis falsifiable?
Experiment Details
Describe the experiment you plan to run and how you are going to attempt to falsify your hypothesis.
Safety: How is the experiment safe to run and how will you recover?
Describe how the experiment is safe to run.
Describe how you will recover from running the experiment upon completion or if you discover it isn’t safe to run.
Measures
What will you measure to invalidate your hypothesis?
What will you measure to indicate the experiment is safe to run?
What will you measure to indicate you should amplify the experiment?
Measures can be Qualitative and Quantitative.
Experiment Backlog
Stack ranked list of actions needed to run the experiment.
Next Steps: Given what you learned, what’s next?
Experiment Results and Learnings
Describe what you learned from the experiment? Did you invalidate your hypothesis or does it live on?
Experiment Name:
Owner:
Mentor: Date:
I-2

123. Next guess:
Our product solves
the customer’s
problem

124. Chaotic! Simple!Complicated!Complex!
Product lifecycle!

125. What happened to
this company?

127. AGILE

129. CUSTOMER
DEVELOPMENT

130. 1
Began
Using
Lean
Startup
1
2
$50M
in
New
Product
Revenue
2
3
1800
Concurrent
Experiments
3

131. Social
Entrepreneuring
EXAMPLE

133. Effec%veness
Feasibility
Sustainability
Desirability

134. Flikr
by
ListensVision
hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw

135. We
need
more
work
here

136. I want
YOU
to
choose

137. Share a Citizen Engineering Story

139. http://www.sparkminute.com/2010/08/05/wireds-kevin-kelly-on-what-technology-wants/

140. Thank You
@RallyOn
#rallyforimpact
Slides:
bit.ly/AgileCTFW