This document summarizes the development of agriculture in Brazil and discusses potential impacts of climate change and policy alternatives. Key points: 1) Brazilian agriculture transformed from low production to highly productive through increased yields, new technologies, and expansion into new areas. 2) Climate change may impact crop yields and suitable land for agriculture in Brazil according to models, though effects are uncertain. 3) Brazil has implemented policies like its Agricultural and Livestock Plan to promote no-till farming, integrated systems, and degraded pasture recovery to mitigate emissions.

1. Climate Change and Food Security:
Brazil
Elisio Contini & Geraldo B. Martha, Jr.
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, 6-8 Nov 2011, CAAS/IFPRI, Beijing, China

2. Outline
• Recent agricultural development;
• Potential impact of climate change on agricultural
production;
• Some policies alternatives to mitigate carbon
emissions;

3. Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
RECENT AGRICULTURAL
DEVELOPMENT

4. Overview
Brazilian Ag before the 1970’s
Low Ag production and low yields;
Production concentrated in South/Southeast;
MAPA (2010). Food supply crisis;
Rural poverty;
Lack of specific knowledge on Tropical
Agriculture;
Institutional void (ag research, education,
markets, media governmental agencies, etc.).
M.Lopes (2011).
The task: to move from trad. ag to one based on science & technology

5. TFP in Brazilian Agriculture, 1970 - 2006
Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006
Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343
Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153
TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224
Land
100 135 162 196 230 324
productivity
Labor
100 129 158 185 241 348
productivity
Source: Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).

6. Production (million tons) and
area (million ha)
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
0.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Source: after Conab.
1976/77
1977/78
1,258
37.32
1978/79
1979/80
Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
+ 240%
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
Production (million tons)
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
+ 32%
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
Area (million ha)
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
+ 157%
2005/06
2006/07
Yield (kg/ha)
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
49.25
3,239
159.51
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Yield (kg/ha)
Grains and Oilseed Production, Area and Yield (1976 – 2011)

7. Factors of Growth in Beef Production (1950 – 2006)
Beef Production 3.36%
Pasture Area X Animal Productivity
~ 21% ~ 79%
Animal
performance X Stocking rates
Land‐saving effect:
525 M ha
~ 38% ~ 62%
G.B. Martha Jr., E.Alves, E.Contini (2011).

8. Area with Human Activities (Probio, 2007)
90% of the Amazon Biome and
61 % of the Cerrado Biome is
still covered by the original
vegetation !
Natural Cerrado
Water body
Crops
Cultivated
pastures
Urban areas
Reforestation
Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156,
2008

9. Brazilian Agriculture: Some Projections (2010/2019)
42%
37.5%
35%
Growth in agricultural
production (%)
27.5%
28% 26.6%
23.0%
21.4%
21%
14%
10.7% 11.0%
9.5%
7%
4.2%
0%
UE27 Canadá EUA Austrália Índia China Rússia Ucrânia Brasil
OECD/FAO (2010).

10. Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
POTENCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION

11. Projected Temperatures
Pinto & Assad (2008).

12. Variation (%) in Potential Cropland
Pinto & Assad (2008).

13. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Area
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

14. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean
Production
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

15. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Yield
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

16. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Net Trade
Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Economy
A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario
Agriculture
Industry
Services
GDP
Source: Haddad et al. (2010).

18. Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil
SOME POLICIES ALTERNATIVES TO
MITIGATE CARBON EMISSIONS

19. Brazilian Climate Change Law

20. Projected GHG Emissions in Brazil in 2020
3.500
Energy Agriculture Land-use Industry+Residues
3.000
1515 2187 92
2704 1728 1652
2.500
114 36% 39%
2.000 1.084
M t CO2-e
84 82
86
1.500 415
1.329 415
627
1.000 883 494 461
500 416 901
329 735 694
217 329
0
1994 2005 2020 2020(I) 2020(II)
Data from MCT (2011), G.B. Martha elaboration.

21. Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies
Mitigation
• potential to mitigate emissions;
• associated benefits that increase agricultural yield and
resilience;
Adaptation
• high‐priority to mitigate actions that have strong
adaptation benefits;

22. ABC Program
Action Total area Projected GHG emission Total cost
(M ha) reduction (M t CO2‐e/yr.) (R$ billion)
No‐till planting 8 16 a 20 2,40
Biological N fixation 5,5 16 a 20 0,30
Recovery of degraded pastures 15 83 a 104 19,65
Integrated crop‐livestock systems 4 18 a 22 34,20
Agricultural and Livestock Plan 2011/2012 (ABC Program)
• Available resources R$ 3.15 billion;
• Limit: up to R$ 1 million per farmer;
• Threshold for a period up to 8 years; deadline for paying for a period up to 15 years;
• Interest rate 5.5% per year;
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture,
Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA).

23. Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems Alternatives
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

24. Adaptation of Crop Varieties
2005
1975
1960
Evolution and expansion of soybean in Brazil

25. Concluding Remarks
• The experience of Brazil’s agricultural transformation is proof that it
is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the
tropics;
• The development of Brazilian agricultural was predominantly based
on productivity gains;
• There are clear opportunities to expand food, biofuels and fiber
production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral
systems will be of central importance;
• Projected effects of climate change in Brazil are still uncertain.