The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

1. China’s Agricultural Risk
to Climate Change
• Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）
• Climate Change Lab
• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,
• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
• Beijing, P. R. China
• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012
• E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn
• 08 November, 2011

2. Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan

3. Overall features of climate change in China
Obvious warming with greater climate variability
Unbalanced regional precipitation with enhanced
drought and flooding
More occurrence of extreme weather/climate events
with huge economic loss

4. The Challenges of Agriculture to
Climate Change in China
Threatening food security;
Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;
Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pests
and weeds;
Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animal
husbandry;
Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologically
vulnerable regions.

5. 1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters
Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006
Frozen snow in Southern China in 2008. Affected Crop areas
are nearly 15 Million Hectares and the direct economic losses
are more than 159 Billion Yuan.

6. Drought in North China Plain
6

7. 2.Impacts on cropping system
The cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by
23%,the north boundary of double cropping system might move
northward to the middle part of the region of the present single
cropping system, and the proportion of triple cropping system
might change from the present 13.5% to 36%.
The border of farming-pastoral ecotone
moved southward and extended
eastward between 1971-2000 and 1961-
1990.

8. 3. Impacts on the yield of major crops
Increasing
Decreasing
No change
Green:↑ Red: ↓ Yellow: --
Liu & Lin

9. 4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases
The climate warming would change the distribution of
agricultural diseases and pests. This would increase the outbreak
of pest and disease . the amount of pesticide and herbicide
application would be increased due to the climate warming.
Rice Planthopper Wheat Aphid

10. Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan

11. China’s INC on Studies on National Strategy
CC (2004) of CC Adaptation (2011)
National Assessment Report
on CC (2007)

12. Adapt to what?
Adaptation

13. Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt
to climate change
Enhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;
Accelerating agricultural industrialization and
modernization;
Strengthening water conservancy facility and developing
water-saving agriculture;
Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;
Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;
Establishing the early-warning systems for agricultural
disasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;
Completing the adaptation technology check-list.

14. Action plan
Based on the challenges to climate change and major tasks to
adapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards the
year 2020, including:
1. basic farmland construction
2. water saving project
3. agricultural infrastructure construction
4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank
5. adjusting the cropping system
6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-
meteorological disasters
7. developing the adaptation technique checklist
8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation
9. preventing the grassland degradation
10. forage resourcing and planning

15. Shortcomings of the present adaptation
strategy research
•
GHGs Climate Impacts
emissions change assessments
√ ×
Vulnerability Risk Adaptation
analysis analysis strategy

16. Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan

17. Risk assessment
Risk= Hazard × Vulnerability
Extreme Climate Events Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

18. Grids: 145*112
PRECIS Old Domain
PRECIS New Domain
Grids: 219*183

19. PRECIS Jobs List for the Old Domain
Temporal
Observation Period Status Resolution
ERA-15 1979-1993 Ready
Daily
ERA-40 1957-2001 Ready
Temporal
GCMs Period Status Resolution
HadAM3P BS(1961-1990), 3个 Ready
HadAM3P A2 (2071-2100), 3个 Ready
Daily
HadAM3P B2 (2071-2100) Ready
HadCM3Q0 A1B(1961-2100) Ready

20. PRECIS Jobs List for the New Domain
Temporal
GCMs Period Status Resolution Notes
A1B
ECHAM5
(1961-2050)
Ready Daily 2051-2011 outputs
Hourly and would be ready later;
Q0 Ready
Daily
Q10 Ready Experiments:
A1B Q0:control experiment
HadCM3Q Q13 Ready
(CORDEX-EAsia)
(1961- includes hourly and
2050) daily outputs;
Runnin
Q7
g
Runnin Daily In daily level:
Q1
g Q1:low sensitivity;
Not Q7:middle sensitivity;
RCP 4.5
ready Q10:high sensitivity;
CMIP5 (1961-
2050) 8.5
Not Q13:high sensitivity.
ready

21. PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Temp.
BS 2020s
2050s 2080s

22. PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Pre.
BS 2020s
2050s 2080s

23. PRECIS Outputs for the New Domain -A1B
BS Temperature 2020s Temperature VS Baseline
BS Precipitation 2020s Precipitation VS Baseline

24. Vulnerability Indices
First-class Second-class First-class Second-class
Third-class indices Third-class indices
indices indices indices indices
Crop planting GDP GDP per capita
areas Different crop planting areas Income level Income per capita
Total and growth rate of
Grain yield Total/growth rate of Yield population
Total and structure
Drought The rate of being educated
Exposure of population
population
Floods The proportion of poverty
Disasters-causing
factors The proportion of agricultural
High temperature Land use
land
Low temperature The proportion of agricultural
Agricultural GDP
GDP
Precipitation
The application rate of chemical
Climatologically fertilizer
normal Temperature
The level of agricultural
Accumulated temperature Adaptive Agricultural mechanization
capacity investment
Sensitivity Temperature variability The application rate of Pesticides
Climate
variability Total and rate of agricultural
Precipitation variability
electricity
Yield Yield variation Water conservancy facilities level
Irrigable area Farmland capital construction
Disaster level Disaster area
level
The proportion of
three major The proportion in planting
industries
Extension of The rate of promotion of
agricultural achievement of science and
science technology in agriculture
Response capability of disaster
Management ability
assistance

25. Questionnaire of Vulnerability indicators

26. Indices Weights （Based on AHP）
Indices Weight
年均降水量（Precipitation） 0.1418
年均温度（Temperature） 0.0775
积温（Accumulated temperature） 0.0493
气温变率（Temperature variability） 0.0220
降水变率（Precipitation variability） 0.0302
产量变化率（Precipitation variability） 0.0126
人均GDP（GDP per capita） 0.1068
农民人均纯收入（Income per capita） 0.0971
贫困人口比例（The proportion of poverty） 0.0330
水土流失面积或治理率（Soil erosion area） 0.0257
人均粮食产量占有量（Per capita occupancy of grain） 0.0251
年均农业总投入（Annual overall input to agriculture） 0.0195
可灌溉面积比例（The proportion of irrigated area） 0.0158
种植业比例（The proportion of planting） 0.0103
农作物总面积（Crop planting areas） 0.1413
粮食总产/增长率（Total growth rate of yield） 0.1024
干旱成灾/受灾面积（Drought areas） 0.0552
高温成灾/受灾面积（High temperature Disaster areas） 0.0188
低温成灾/受灾面积（Low temperature Disaster areas） 0.0156

27. Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan

28. Next-step work
Convert the extracted information of extreme
climate evens from climate scenarios to agro-
meteorological hazards;
Complete the vulnerability indices;
Collect the relevant data of vulnerability indices;

29. ACCC Project :RegCM3 & PRECIS Job-list
• ERA-Interim: 1989-2008
• HadCM3
• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100
• SRES A1B QUMP171013: 1951-2100
• ECHAM5
• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100
• CMIP5 Models
RCP 8.5 ⁄ 4.5: 1951-2100