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Ptak prizeindia2014 SCNext_inquisitive_siom
Supply Chain Next (SCNext)-----The Youth of Supply Chain 
The Ptak Prize Challenge 
Round 2 : Ecommerce Supply Chain Challenges 
Team Inquisitive, SIOM 
Snehal Rathi 
Nikhil Nagdeote 
Sri Harsha
A business model that 
strikes a right balances 
the tradeoff between 
customer satisfaction 
and investor profits can 
only sustain in this 
highly competitive 
industry…. 
With no entry barrier 
any business model 
can be easily 
replicated. Continuous 
Innovation and 
operational efficiency 
is the key to success.. 
Else many existing 
players will perish 
soon…!! 
The major challenge is 
customer stickiness, 
which in the current 
scenario is lost due to 
too many players having 
similar business models 
and raging price wars, 
leading to a downward 
spiral… 
Vicious Cycle: Pressure 
from investors may lead 
to rising prices and 
once again customers 
turning to offline store 
leading to drop in 
orders.. 
The offline players 
shifting online have a 
competitive advantage 
over the online players 
trying to go offline… 
Logistics 
infrastructure, last mile 
delivery, COD, frauds, 
return orders, multiple 
logistics partners, and 
huge cost of acquiring 
and serving a customer 
have been major 
challenges for the 
industry… 
Executive Summary 
 There are no hidden figures about the growth of E-commerce 
industry in India. The online retail market is only 7.9% of the 
organized retail (Rs 1767 Billion) and a mere 0.5% of the overall 
retail ( Rs 25286 Billion) as of 2013. 
 The industry is at its nascent stage as compared to developed 
countries and is surrounded by major technology and logistics 
challenges. 
 With huge influx of venture capital there is no entry barrier, 
supplier and customers have higher bargaining power and the 
industry is highly competitive. 
 With talks of liberalizing the e-commerce in India and tax 
restructuring, the current market players may face even more 
competition from the foreign players. 
 To start an ecommerce business in 2015, in the industry which is 
yet to see profits, which lacks customer loyalty, companies need a 
robust business model which allows efficient technology integration 
with product/category focus. 
 With more that 50% online sales being from tier 2 and tier 3 
cities, the focus should shift to connecting cities and smaller places. 
Strategic partnerships with offline players, bulk deliveries, value 
added services and seller sustainability should be the focus for these 
companies. 
 In this highly competitive environment, the one who provides 
Value to customers at the required Velocity with sufficient product 
Variability and Visibility and takes care of all Vulnerabilities will be 
the last man standing and will win the game.
Industry Overview 
Market Size and Segmentation (2013) 
3.85 
5.26 
7.03 
US $ Bn 
9.48 
12.6 
15 
20 
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2020 
Online 
Travel 
Industry 
73% 
Financial 
Services 
6% 
E-Tailing 
14% 
Classifieds 
5% 
Other 
Services 
2% 
Analysis of 
SC and Logistics 
Industry Overview 
 In the last 5 years the industry has seen 
exponential growth marking a CAGR of 59% 
from the year 2009 to 2013. 
 Online travel, as of last year they have a 
lion’s share of 73% out of the total E-Commerce 
market. 
 Electronics and fashion are close second 
with a share of about 14%, followed by 
financial and other services. 
 With rise in internet penetration the e-commerce 
market is expected to grow to 
about $ 20 Billion by 2020. 
 Currently works with two main models: 
Inventory based (buy and sel) and market 
place models. 
More than 70% transactions are based on 
cash on delivery model to gain the trust of 
consumers. 
*Source: McKinsey, Online and upcoming : The internet impact on India, Dec 2012 
Google Report, Economic Times. 
Internet and mobile association of India, April 2013 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who Will Win 
Estimated Y-o-Y 
growth ~ 33%
Key Drivers of E-commerce 
Busy lifestyles, urban traffic congestion and 
lack of time for offline shopping 
 Low cost products available online with heavy 
discounts 
 Rise in the standard of living and burgeoning 
upwardly mobile middle class with high 
disposable income 
 Increasing broadband internet services and 
growing 3G penetration in India. 
 The emergence of M-commerce and 
Smartphone penetration. 
 Last mile delivery of not only products but 
also services. 
 Rising capital influx from venture capitalists 
and Private Equity 
 Rise in the literacy levels enabling consumers 
to buy online. 
 Online payment systems. 
 By 2019 the internet users in India are 
expected to grow to 420 million with 32% 
penetration. 
*Source: McKinsey, Online and upcoming : The internet impact on India, Dec 2012; 
Dinodia Capital Advisory Report; Research by Alvis Lazarus; 
Internet and mobile association of India, April 2013 
2300 
Internet Users and Penetration 
480 
245 
120 102 
34.00% 
38.00% 
77.00% 
10.00% 
80.00% 
90.00% 
80.00% 
70.00% 
60.00% 
50.00% 
40.00% 
30.00% 
20.00% 
10.00% 
0.00% 
2500 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
0 
Global China US India Japan 
Internet Users % Penetration 
2662 
583 
279 350 
105 
43.00% 
43.00% 
86.00% 
28.00% 
84.00% 
100.00% 
90.00% 
80.00% 
70.00% 
60.00% 
50.00% 
40.00% 
30.00% 
20.00% 
10.00% 
0.00% 
3000 
2500 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
0 
Global China US India Japan 
InduInstdruy sOtvrye rOviveewrview Analysis of 
SC and Logistics 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who Will Win 
2011 
2015
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
Procurement 
Inventory 
Warehouse 
Operations 
Transportation 
& Logistics 
Payment and 
Post sale 
support 
Analysis of 
SC and Logistics 
Traditional Brick and Mortar E-commerce Supply Chain Challenges in e-commerce 
SKU limited by limited shelf space; 
Items procured in bulk 
Virtually unlimited shelf space; 
Items may or may not be procured 
by company ( marketplace model) 
Direct shipment from supplier does not allow bulk 
shipments; lack of coordination ; lack of technology 
integration; Longer Procure to Pay cycle 
Inventory exists at distribution 
centers ( National; regional; stores) 
Inventory exists either at 
distribution centers or at highly 
distributed supplier location 
(sellers) 
Huge inventory in case of buy and sell model; High 
probability of stock out; No specific product 
location as unsold products are returned to sellers 
by e-commerce companies 
Lower number of orders ; 
Limited need for small order size 
picking and packing; 
Machinery needed due to larger 
sizes 
Large number of orders ; 
Significant need for small order size 
picking and packing; 
Manual labor needed due to smaller 
sizes 
No stacks of similar products exist; Locating a 
product requires quality tracing system; Every 
product requires different packing and dunning 
making pick and pack more complicated 
Often company owned fleet drivers 
between DCs and to store; 
Low need for door to door delivery; 
Low logistics cost per item 
End item picked by consumer from 
stores 
Delivery picked from DC or directly 
from seller 
Direct shipment or indirect (from 
seller to DC and DC to customer) 
Needs door to door delivery of end 
items; 
High logistics cost per item; 
Risk of theft and fraud; Tracing and tracking of 
individual items become difficult; 
Less connectivity to end consumers; Less 
connectivity between cities and rural India; Return 
order consolidation required; Full truck load is a 
major concern; Multiple consolidation points 
Payment at point of service; 
Return to store 
Payment online or at point of delivery; 
Need for secure online payment system 
Return to DC or seller; 
Value added services crucial for 
differentiation; 
Last mile delivery person responsible for customer 
experience; 
Risk of theft and fraud; Customer expectation for 
service guarantee; Longer order to cash cycle 
reducing the working capital 
The bottlenecks and complexities in E-commerce logistics are caused not only because of difference in transportation needs but 
because of a different business model altogether. Every stage in the e-commerce supply chain causes different challenges for 
logistics arm of the company. 
Industry 
Overview 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who Will Win
 Lack of connectivity between cities, and rural India  Underdeveloped Infrastructure 
VAT Regulations  Reverse Logistics ( Consolidation centers) 
Lack of Skilled Labor  Inefficient Technology integration 
 Inefficient trace and track  Pin code reach and COD ( Non standardization of Postal Address ) 
Its not only the bidirectional flow of material but also that of information and cash which affects the efficient 
operations 
Reason for Bottlenecks 
 No one size fits all. The supply chain and especially the 
logistics need to be fit for a product category. 
 Glossary, fruits and vegetables, furniture other consumer 
goods and electronics all demand different network capability. 
 There has to be balance of trade off between efficiency on 
one end and responsiveness on the other. Companies are 
adopting the same strategy for all categories due to broad 
range of offerings. 
 More than 50% of the demand for online products has been 
from tier 2 and tier 3 cities. Reach to tier 3 places along with 
rural India is still a major barrier to growth of ecommerce. 
But there is lack of warehousing infrastructure here at the 
same time lack of connectivity between cities and these places. 
 Of the six drivers of supply chain, neither of the drivers are 
completely utilized nor completely integrated. 
 State owned transport is not customer centric and private 
owned transportation lack funds for expansion. 
Drivers of Supply Chain for Ecommerce Industry 
Competitive Strategy 
Supply Chain Strategy 
Efficiency Responsiveness 
Logistical Drivers 
Facilities Inventory 
Transportation 
IT systems Sourcing Pricing 
Cross Functional Drivers 
Critical Bottleneck Factors in a nutshell 
Industry 
Overview 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who Will Win 
Analysis of 
SC and Logistics
Industry Overview 
Factors that cause Last mile network planning and scheduling a nightmare 
 Less than Truck load and Empty backhaul  Package cost due to separate delivery for same order 
 Outsourced vs Owned logistics (Multiple Logistics Partners)  Trust on 3rd party vendors 
 Product Availability  Ship to delivery time ( slots) 
 Cost per Kg and collection cost for COD orders  Size of product (Weight and Volume) 
 Flexible return policies  Unitization and Palletization not possible 
Last Mile Delivery cost for owned and outsourced 
service 
Last Mile 
53% 
Collection 
4% 
Line Haul 
37% 
Sorting 
6% 
Reason for Last Mile Network Planning and Scheduling 
Nightmare 
 There is a clear gap in the market with no logistics player 
offering the breadth of services needed at a competitive price 
across a broad network demanded by ecommerce companies. 
 Large networks offering basic services or Small networks 
offering more complex services. No one service provider to 
handle everything. 
 E-commerce in certain segments like baby products, consumer 
electronics, telecommunications, computer products and furniture 
are struggling with logistics supplier’s inability to handle large or 
irregularly shaped shipments at lower costs. 
Companies have to rely on multiple logistic partners (DTDC, 
Blue Dart, owned logistics, etc) making the technology integration 
more complicated. 
 Empty back hauling by delivery personal and double trips to 
collect return goods. 
 Consolidating the forward and backward movement of items 
from a particular area in single trip is complex. 
 This leads to network planning and scheduling a nightmare. 
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
1 
500 
1000 
1500 
2000 
2500 
3000 
3500 
4000 
4500 
5000 
Owned 
Outsourced 
Last Mile Delivery 
( average cost per parcel) 
X Axis: Total 
parcels 
delivered (per 
city per day) 
Estimated cost structure per parcel for logistics 
Industry 
Overview 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who Will Win 
Analysis of 
SC and Logistics
Threat of New Entrants 
 Easy access to distribution channels 
 Low initial capital investment 
 No entry barriers and lot of funding 
options available 
 Low consumer switching costs 
 Huge growth opportunities in India 
Contract Qualifiers 
Threat from Substitutes 
 Negligible Product Differentiation 
 Lot of substitutes are available 
 The product performance of substitute 
products is same or better 
 Low switching costs make the industry 
price sensitive 
Bargaining Power - Buyer 
 Multiple options and variety to choose 
from 
 Low switching costs 
 Can easily compare product prices and 
features across platforms 
 With increasing competition the 
bargaining power is shifting towards 
consumers 
Bargaining Power - Supplier 
 Huge scope for forward integration by 
supplier to sell their own products and 
increase their margins 
 Multiple selling platforms provide high 
bargaining power 
 Low to medium switching costs for e-commerce 
companies 
Low entry barriers make the 
industry very competitive and 
decreases the scope for potential 
profits 
Companies have to compete 
with brick and mortar as well as 
other ecommerce companies 
High exit cost for inventory 
based models 
 
Internal Rivalry 
Tough competition makes it 
difficult to increase the market 
share 
 Companies competing only on 
prices with very low 
differentiation 
Consumers always look for better 
deals and thus there is no brand 
loyalt amongst the consumers 
Minimum product differentiation 
and low switching cost give a lot of 
power to buyers 
Suppliers have high bargaining 
power as they sell via multiple 
platforms and channels 
Industry 
Analysis Porter’s of 5 SC 
Forces Overview 
and Logistics 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Porter’s Five Forces Who Will Win
Negatives 
Positives 
Analysis of SC 
and Logistics 
Porter’s 5 Forces 
Porter’s Five Forces Who Will Win 
Will you start your own 
E-commerce business in 2015?? 
Bridging the Internal and 
External Environmental 
Gap with… 
Industry 
Overview 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
…..Supporting Environment ....Right Operations Model 
 Probable implementation of GST by 2016 
 Make in India to help build infrastructure 
 Funding available from angel investors and VCs 
 E-commerce logistics growing at a very fast pace 
 A lot of technology start up are changing the way 
businesses work 
 Shifting trend from cost leadership to 
product/service differentiation 
 Sustainable Business Model 
 Distribution strategy to reduce cost 
 Track customer experience but at the same time 
reduce cost. Differentiate with Value Added 
Services. 
 Focus on niche segment with huge 
 Analyze all risk and exit strategy. 
 Strategic Partnerships with offline players 
+ 
1. Attractiveness of Industry in terms 
of scope and growth 
2. Huge untapped market 
3. Internet and Mobile Penetration 
1. Profitability 
2. Customer Loyalty 
3. Government Policies 
We would not start our Ecommerce Business with a broad segment category competing on cost with no entry barriers. 
Right product for right market with huge growth potential supported and equipped with right business model is what we 
would look to start with. A niche market segment ( Eg: Influenced by Women buying decisions with CAGR of about 40% in the 
near future) with first mover advantage would be our preference to start with.
Where Are Companies losing/spending/overspending? Customer Expectations 
Customers 
Operations 
Investments 
 Customers do expect the lowest prices for products 
but it is not the only criteria. The trend has been 
shifting towards quality and differentiation. 
 Value added services : Product trials, fast and 
efficient and scheduled, delivery, Cash on Delivery, 
Easy pick up for return orders, online assistance, 
combo offers 
 Customer wants to experience the feel of offline 
market at every touch point like marketing, presales, 
purchase experience, and post sale service. 
 Customer wants efficient delivery, minimum hassle 
of product return and cash in hand for returned 
products. 
 Everything come at an extra cost to the companies. 
Industry Overview 
Companies are investing around Rupees 1200 to 
1500 to get a customer with an average order of 
Rs.500 ( one time) 
 Huge discounts from investors hard earned money. 
 Reinvesting the money earned to provide more 
discount and services to customers. 
 Huge investments in expansion, acquisitions, 
category expansion, logistics and technology. 
 Despite very low (negative) Cash Conversion Cycle 
( Amazon CCC = -30 days), cash remittance take very 
long due to COD facility. 
 Very recently the cash remittances have been 
reduced from 15 days to a week. 
Capital is essential to run 
the operations, provide 
service and fulfill customer 
expectations. 
If there is no investment 
then there would be no 
customers and if you don’t 
win customers then you 
don’t need capital. …. 
Industry 
Overview 
Analysis of SC 
and Logistics 
Porter’s Five 
forces 
Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win
The Goal of the Business is to make money..!! 
Increase Throughput...!! Reduce Inventory…!! Reduce Operating expenses…!! (All the same 
Industry 
Overview 
time) 
Analysis of SC 
and Logistics 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win 
2015* 2016* 
Strategic Partnership with offline players and 
Government ( training and educating people and 
promoting specific industry segments) 
 Service Partnerships/ Service Acquisitions 
 Focus on the tier 3 and 4 cities which contribute to 
more than 50% of the online sales. (Revenue / Cost 
per sq feet is bound to be low) 
 
Starting offline operations in the form of Return 
consolidation centers in metros. 
 Initiate education and training of offline retailers to 
integrate virtually and adapt to technology. 
 Invest in building partnership with logistics solution 
providers or develop own logistics network. 
 Tie ups with corporate for bulk deliveries at office 
locations. 
2017* 2018* 
 Shift to a single logistics solution provider in every 
state / region. 
Integrate technology between the partners. 
(Vendors/sellers, warehouse and Logistics partners). 
 Align penetration strategy with that of logistics 
partner 
 Expand product category only by acquisition and 
diversion of all orders by technology integration 
With increasing use of debit card shift to 50% COD 
model. 
 Smaller Fulfillment centers near to customers and 
multiple delivery options ( Home delivery, Parcel 
Pickup) 
2019* 
Completely personalized services 
 Personalized Billion Day offers rather than mass offers 
 Complete penetration to rural India 
*End of Year Targets
Industry Overview 
While the trend to go online is inevitable, there are delicate issues that brands need to balance between their online and 
offline operations: 
(1) Price difference between the two channels leads to traffic loss offline, so SKU differentiation maybe the only option. 
(2) Organizational level: Reconciling differences between online and offline management 
(3) Customer synergy needs to be carefully examined. 
Online to Offline: Pros and Cons Offline to Online: Pros and Cons 
 Have strong distribution networks in the form of 
distributors and retailers. 
 Strong technology system and training to the traditional 
retailers to adopt to changing environment will favor this 
group. 
 Can have products listed on multiple platforms including 
its own web portal. ( Multi channel sale) 
 Major challenge is to maintain same cost across all 
platforms and channels 
 Have advantage of customer touch experience and 
capability to provide all value added services including home 
delivery and product return. 
 High proportion of in-house logistics capabilities and 
prior experience Needs little upgradation. A area or regional 
store accessible to limited consumers. 
 Have to work all the way on distribution networks. 
 Sound technology and can reach internet and mobile 
penetration. 
Customer touch and feel experience will make them take 
the offline way. 
 Virtually no limit to inventory and variety. Huge number of 
sellers. Available to provide competitive costs to consumers. 
 Offline stores would be the face for the customers. 
 Offline store will help provide post sale customer service 
and experience which is currently missing. 
 Strategic partnerships with existing offline players will 
strengthen the entire system. 
 Offline stores will can act as return consolidation centers 
thereby reducing return costs. 
With both the groups having different set of advantages and challenges….The one who provides Value to customers at the 
required Velocity with sufficient product Variability and Visibility and takes care of all Vulnerabilities will be the last man 
standing 
and will Win the game. 
Industry 
Overview 
Analysis of SC 
and Logistics 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who will Win
 Consumer will choose shopping channel of preference 
 Choice, Availability and Price will decide shopping habits as compared to shopping experience 
 Shopping will be treated more as a chore than recreation due to work pressures. 
 As attitudes change, consumers will buy high value items and brands online. 
Having discussed this, following factors make offline players moving online more probable to win with right strategy 
implementation at the right time… 
Why online cannot..!! Why offline can..!! 
 Online players trying to go offline could not 
provide the same variety as its online portal. 
 If they go offline it has to be for specific 
categories like fashion and apparels, electronics. 
 Huge investment at this point of time to set up a 
shopping mall type of a center in cities in order to 
accommodate maximum number of categories. 
 Lack of variety would take away its one of its 
existing advantages. 
 The cost of products would increase due to the 
extra cost of inventory and operations. 
 This could make the consumers more dissatisfied 
and companies even less profitable. 
 Offline players need to set up enough stores to 
be accessible which is not foreseen in near future. 
 Offline players need to work on their operational 
efficiency with respect to reducing customers 
shopping time by providing what they want. 
 Services like home delivery, store specific 
inventory applications will help customers to make 
good choices. 
 More over they have all the advantages of being 
online via multiple online platforms. 
 Strategic partnerships with online market places 
to sell products and act as service partners. 
They can have their own brands listed online and 
offline for display and trials. 
 Talking about products from brands ( Sony, 
Toshiba); they have a strong distribution network in 
the form of distributors and retailers. 
 Last mile delivery is more easier given the reach. 
Industry 
Overview 
Analysis of SC 
and Logistics 
Porter’s Five 
Forces 
Strategy 
2015-2019 
Who will Win
Ptak prizeindia2014 SCNext_inquisitive_siom
Team Inquisitive, SIOM 
Thank You..!!

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Ptak prizeindia2014 SCNext_inquisitive_siom

  • 2. Supply Chain Next (SCNext)-----The Youth of Supply Chain The Ptak Prize Challenge Round 2 : Ecommerce Supply Chain Challenges Team Inquisitive, SIOM Snehal Rathi Nikhil Nagdeote Sri Harsha
  • 3. A business model that strikes a right balances the tradeoff between customer satisfaction and investor profits can only sustain in this highly competitive industry…. With no entry barrier any business model can be easily replicated. Continuous Innovation and operational efficiency is the key to success.. Else many existing players will perish soon…!! The major challenge is customer stickiness, which in the current scenario is lost due to too many players having similar business models and raging price wars, leading to a downward spiral… Vicious Cycle: Pressure from investors may lead to rising prices and once again customers turning to offline store leading to drop in orders.. The offline players shifting online have a competitive advantage over the online players trying to go offline… Logistics infrastructure, last mile delivery, COD, frauds, return orders, multiple logistics partners, and huge cost of acquiring and serving a customer have been major challenges for the industry… Executive Summary  There are no hidden figures about the growth of E-commerce industry in India. The online retail market is only 7.9% of the organized retail (Rs 1767 Billion) and a mere 0.5% of the overall retail ( Rs 25286 Billion) as of 2013.  The industry is at its nascent stage as compared to developed countries and is surrounded by major technology and logistics challenges.  With huge influx of venture capital there is no entry barrier, supplier and customers have higher bargaining power and the industry is highly competitive.  With talks of liberalizing the e-commerce in India and tax restructuring, the current market players may face even more competition from the foreign players.  To start an ecommerce business in 2015, in the industry which is yet to see profits, which lacks customer loyalty, companies need a robust business model which allows efficient technology integration with product/category focus.  With more that 50% online sales being from tier 2 and tier 3 cities, the focus should shift to connecting cities and smaller places. Strategic partnerships with offline players, bulk deliveries, value added services and seller sustainability should be the focus for these companies.  In this highly competitive environment, the one who provides Value to customers at the required Velocity with sufficient product Variability and Visibility and takes care of all Vulnerabilities will be the last man standing and will win the game.
  • 4. Industry Overview Market Size and Segmentation (2013) 3.85 5.26 7.03 US $ Bn 9.48 12.6 15 20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2020 Online Travel Industry 73% Financial Services 6% E-Tailing 14% Classifieds 5% Other Services 2% Analysis of SC and Logistics Industry Overview  In the last 5 years the industry has seen exponential growth marking a CAGR of 59% from the year 2009 to 2013.  Online travel, as of last year they have a lion’s share of 73% out of the total E-Commerce market.  Electronics and fashion are close second with a share of about 14%, followed by financial and other services.  With rise in internet penetration the e-commerce market is expected to grow to about $ 20 Billion by 2020.  Currently works with two main models: Inventory based (buy and sel) and market place models. More than 70% transactions are based on cash on delivery model to gain the trust of consumers. *Source: McKinsey, Online and upcoming : The internet impact on India, Dec 2012 Google Report, Economic Times. Internet and mobile association of India, April 2013 Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win Estimated Y-o-Y growth ~ 33%
  • 5. Key Drivers of E-commerce Busy lifestyles, urban traffic congestion and lack of time for offline shopping  Low cost products available online with heavy discounts  Rise in the standard of living and burgeoning upwardly mobile middle class with high disposable income  Increasing broadband internet services and growing 3G penetration in India.  The emergence of M-commerce and Smartphone penetration.  Last mile delivery of not only products but also services.  Rising capital influx from venture capitalists and Private Equity  Rise in the literacy levels enabling consumers to buy online.  Online payment systems.  By 2019 the internet users in India are expected to grow to 420 million with 32% penetration. *Source: McKinsey, Online and upcoming : The internet impact on India, Dec 2012; Dinodia Capital Advisory Report; Research by Alvis Lazarus; Internet and mobile association of India, April 2013 2300 Internet Users and Penetration 480 245 120 102 34.00% 38.00% 77.00% 10.00% 80.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Global China US India Japan Internet Users % Penetration 2662 583 279 350 105 43.00% 43.00% 86.00% 28.00% 84.00% 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Global China US India Japan InduInstdruy sOtvrye rOviveewrview Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win 2011 2015
  • 6. 1 2 3 4 5 Procurement Inventory Warehouse Operations Transportation & Logistics Payment and Post sale support Analysis of SC and Logistics Traditional Brick and Mortar E-commerce Supply Chain Challenges in e-commerce SKU limited by limited shelf space; Items procured in bulk Virtually unlimited shelf space; Items may or may not be procured by company ( marketplace model) Direct shipment from supplier does not allow bulk shipments; lack of coordination ; lack of technology integration; Longer Procure to Pay cycle Inventory exists at distribution centers ( National; regional; stores) Inventory exists either at distribution centers or at highly distributed supplier location (sellers) Huge inventory in case of buy and sell model; High probability of stock out; No specific product location as unsold products are returned to sellers by e-commerce companies Lower number of orders ; Limited need for small order size picking and packing; Machinery needed due to larger sizes Large number of orders ; Significant need for small order size picking and packing; Manual labor needed due to smaller sizes No stacks of similar products exist; Locating a product requires quality tracing system; Every product requires different packing and dunning making pick and pack more complicated Often company owned fleet drivers between DCs and to store; Low need for door to door delivery; Low logistics cost per item End item picked by consumer from stores Delivery picked from DC or directly from seller Direct shipment or indirect (from seller to DC and DC to customer) Needs door to door delivery of end items; High logistics cost per item; Risk of theft and fraud; Tracing and tracking of individual items become difficult; Less connectivity to end consumers; Less connectivity between cities and rural India; Return order consolidation required; Full truck load is a major concern; Multiple consolidation points Payment at point of service; Return to store Payment online or at point of delivery; Need for secure online payment system Return to DC or seller; Value added services crucial for differentiation; Last mile delivery person responsible for customer experience; Risk of theft and fraud; Customer expectation for service guarantee; Longer order to cash cycle reducing the working capital The bottlenecks and complexities in E-commerce logistics are caused not only because of difference in transportation needs but because of a different business model altogether. Every stage in the e-commerce supply chain causes different challenges for logistics arm of the company. Industry Overview Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win
  • 7.  Lack of connectivity between cities, and rural India  Underdeveloped Infrastructure VAT Regulations  Reverse Logistics ( Consolidation centers) Lack of Skilled Labor  Inefficient Technology integration  Inefficient trace and track  Pin code reach and COD ( Non standardization of Postal Address ) Its not only the bidirectional flow of material but also that of information and cash which affects the efficient operations Reason for Bottlenecks  No one size fits all. The supply chain and especially the logistics need to be fit for a product category.  Glossary, fruits and vegetables, furniture other consumer goods and electronics all demand different network capability.  There has to be balance of trade off between efficiency on one end and responsiveness on the other. Companies are adopting the same strategy for all categories due to broad range of offerings.  More than 50% of the demand for online products has been from tier 2 and tier 3 cities. Reach to tier 3 places along with rural India is still a major barrier to growth of ecommerce. But there is lack of warehousing infrastructure here at the same time lack of connectivity between cities and these places.  Of the six drivers of supply chain, neither of the drivers are completely utilized nor completely integrated.  State owned transport is not customer centric and private owned transportation lack funds for expansion. Drivers of Supply Chain for Ecommerce Industry Competitive Strategy Supply Chain Strategy Efficiency Responsiveness Logistical Drivers Facilities Inventory Transportation IT systems Sourcing Pricing Cross Functional Drivers Critical Bottleneck Factors in a nutshell Industry Overview Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win Analysis of SC and Logistics
  • 8. Industry Overview Factors that cause Last mile network planning and scheduling a nightmare  Less than Truck load and Empty backhaul  Package cost due to separate delivery for same order  Outsourced vs Owned logistics (Multiple Logistics Partners)  Trust on 3rd party vendors  Product Availability  Ship to delivery time ( slots)  Cost per Kg and collection cost for COD orders  Size of product (Weight and Volume)  Flexible return policies  Unitization and Palletization not possible Last Mile Delivery cost for owned and outsourced service Last Mile 53% Collection 4% Line Haul 37% Sorting 6% Reason for Last Mile Network Planning and Scheduling Nightmare  There is a clear gap in the market with no logistics player offering the breadth of services needed at a competitive price across a broad network demanded by ecommerce companies.  Large networks offering basic services or Small networks offering more complex services. No one service provider to handle everything.  E-commerce in certain segments like baby products, consumer electronics, telecommunications, computer products and furniture are struggling with logistics supplier’s inability to handle large or irregularly shaped shipments at lower costs. Companies have to rely on multiple logistic partners (DTDC, Blue Dart, owned logistics, etc) making the technology integration more complicated.  Empty back hauling by delivery personal and double trips to collect return goods.  Consolidating the forward and backward movement of items from a particular area in single trip is complex.  This leads to network planning and scheduling a nightmare. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Owned Outsourced Last Mile Delivery ( average cost per parcel) X Axis: Total parcels delivered (per city per day) Estimated cost structure per parcel for logistics Industry Overview Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win Analysis of SC and Logistics
  • 9. Threat of New Entrants  Easy access to distribution channels  Low initial capital investment  No entry barriers and lot of funding options available  Low consumer switching costs  Huge growth opportunities in India Contract Qualifiers Threat from Substitutes  Negligible Product Differentiation  Lot of substitutes are available  The product performance of substitute products is same or better  Low switching costs make the industry price sensitive Bargaining Power - Buyer  Multiple options and variety to choose from  Low switching costs  Can easily compare product prices and features across platforms  With increasing competition the bargaining power is shifting towards consumers Bargaining Power - Supplier  Huge scope for forward integration by supplier to sell their own products and increase their margins  Multiple selling platforms provide high bargaining power  Low to medium switching costs for e-commerce companies Low entry barriers make the industry very competitive and decreases the scope for potential profits Companies have to compete with brick and mortar as well as other ecommerce companies High exit cost for inventory based models  Internal Rivalry Tough competition makes it difficult to increase the market share  Companies competing only on prices with very low differentiation Consumers always look for better deals and thus there is no brand loyalt amongst the consumers Minimum product differentiation and low switching cost give a lot of power to buyers Suppliers have high bargaining power as they sell via multiple platforms and channels Industry Analysis Porter’s of 5 SC Forces Overview and Logistics Strategy 2015-2019 Porter’s Five Forces Who Will Win
  • 10. Negatives Positives Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s 5 Forces Porter’s Five Forces Who Will Win Will you start your own E-commerce business in 2015?? Bridging the Internal and External Environmental Gap with… Industry Overview Strategy 2015-2019 …..Supporting Environment ....Right Operations Model  Probable implementation of GST by 2016  Make in India to help build infrastructure  Funding available from angel investors and VCs  E-commerce logistics growing at a very fast pace  A lot of technology start up are changing the way businesses work  Shifting trend from cost leadership to product/service differentiation  Sustainable Business Model  Distribution strategy to reduce cost  Track customer experience but at the same time reduce cost. Differentiate with Value Added Services.  Focus on niche segment with huge  Analyze all risk and exit strategy.  Strategic Partnerships with offline players + 1. Attractiveness of Industry in terms of scope and growth 2. Huge untapped market 3. Internet and Mobile Penetration 1. Profitability 2. Customer Loyalty 3. Government Policies We would not start our Ecommerce Business with a broad segment category competing on cost with no entry barriers. Right product for right market with huge growth potential supported and equipped with right business model is what we would look to start with. A niche market segment ( Eg: Influenced by Women buying decisions with CAGR of about 40% in the near future) with first mover advantage would be our preference to start with.
  • 11. Where Are Companies losing/spending/overspending? Customer Expectations Customers Operations Investments  Customers do expect the lowest prices for products but it is not the only criteria. The trend has been shifting towards quality and differentiation.  Value added services : Product trials, fast and efficient and scheduled, delivery, Cash on Delivery, Easy pick up for return orders, online assistance, combo offers  Customer wants to experience the feel of offline market at every touch point like marketing, presales, purchase experience, and post sale service.  Customer wants efficient delivery, minimum hassle of product return and cash in hand for returned products.  Everything come at an extra cost to the companies. Industry Overview Companies are investing around Rupees 1200 to 1500 to get a customer with an average order of Rs.500 ( one time)  Huge discounts from investors hard earned money.  Reinvesting the money earned to provide more discount and services to customers.  Huge investments in expansion, acquisitions, category expansion, logistics and technology.  Despite very low (negative) Cash Conversion Cycle ( Amazon CCC = -30 days), cash remittance take very long due to COD facility.  Very recently the cash remittances have been reduced from 15 days to a week. Capital is essential to run the operations, provide service and fulfill customer expectations. If there is no investment then there would be no customers and if you don’t win customers then you don’t need capital. …. Industry Overview Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s Five forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win
  • 12. The Goal of the Business is to make money..!! Increase Throughput...!! Reduce Inventory…!! Reduce Operating expenses…!! (All the same Industry Overview time) Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who Will Win 2015* 2016* Strategic Partnership with offline players and Government ( training and educating people and promoting specific industry segments)  Service Partnerships/ Service Acquisitions  Focus on the tier 3 and 4 cities which contribute to more than 50% of the online sales. (Revenue / Cost per sq feet is bound to be low)  Starting offline operations in the form of Return consolidation centers in metros.  Initiate education and training of offline retailers to integrate virtually and adapt to technology.  Invest in building partnership with logistics solution providers or develop own logistics network.  Tie ups with corporate for bulk deliveries at office locations. 2017* 2018*  Shift to a single logistics solution provider in every state / region. Integrate technology between the partners. (Vendors/sellers, warehouse and Logistics partners).  Align penetration strategy with that of logistics partner  Expand product category only by acquisition and diversion of all orders by technology integration With increasing use of debit card shift to 50% COD model.  Smaller Fulfillment centers near to customers and multiple delivery options ( Home delivery, Parcel Pickup) 2019* Completely personalized services  Personalized Billion Day offers rather than mass offers  Complete penetration to rural India *End of Year Targets
  • 13. Industry Overview While the trend to go online is inevitable, there are delicate issues that brands need to balance between their online and offline operations: (1) Price difference between the two channels leads to traffic loss offline, so SKU differentiation maybe the only option. (2) Organizational level: Reconciling differences between online and offline management (3) Customer synergy needs to be carefully examined. Online to Offline: Pros and Cons Offline to Online: Pros and Cons  Have strong distribution networks in the form of distributors and retailers.  Strong technology system and training to the traditional retailers to adopt to changing environment will favor this group.  Can have products listed on multiple platforms including its own web portal. ( Multi channel sale)  Major challenge is to maintain same cost across all platforms and channels  Have advantage of customer touch experience and capability to provide all value added services including home delivery and product return.  High proportion of in-house logistics capabilities and prior experience Needs little upgradation. A area or regional store accessible to limited consumers.  Have to work all the way on distribution networks.  Sound technology and can reach internet and mobile penetration. Customer touch and feel experience will make them take the offline way.  Virtually no limit to inventory and variety. Huge number of sellers. Available to provide competitive costs to consumers.  Offline stores would be the face for the customers.  Offline store will help provide post sale customer service and experience which is currently missing.  Strategic partnerships with existing offline players will strengthen the entire system.  Offline stores will can act as return consolidation centers thereby reducing return costs. With both the groups having different set of advantages and challenges….The one who provides Value to customers at the required Velocity with sufficient product Variability and Visibility and takes care of all Vulnerabilities will be the last man standing and will Win the game. Industry Overview Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who will Win
  • 14.  Consumer will choose shopping channel of preference  Choice, Availability and Price will decide shopping habits as compared to shopping experience  Shopping will be treated more as a chore than recreation due to work pressures.  As attitudes change, consumers will buy high value items and brands online. Having discussed this, following factors make offline players moving online more probable to win with right strategy implementation at the right time… Why online cannot..!! Why offline can..!!  Online players trying to go offline could not provide the same variety as its online portal.  If they go offline it has to be for specific categories like fashion and apparels, electronics.  Huge investment at this point of time to set up a shopping mall type of a center in cities in order to accommodate maximum number of categories.  Lack of variety would take away its one of its existing advantages.  The cost of products would increase due to the extra cost of inventory and operations.  This could make the consumers more dissatisfied and companies even less profitable.  Offline players need to set up enough stores to be accessible which is not foreseen in near future.  Offline players need to work on their operational efficiency with respect to reducing customers shopping time by providing what they want.  Services like home delivery, store specific inventory applications will help customers to make good choices.  More over they have all the advantages of being online via multiple online platforms.  Strategic partnerships with online market places to sell products and act as service partners. They can have their own brands listed online and offline for display and trials.  Talking about products from brands ( Sony, Toshiba); they have a strong distribution network in the form of distributors and retailers.  Last mile delivery is more easier given the reach. Industry Overview Analysis of SC and Logistics Porter’s Five Forces Strategy 2015-2019 Who will Win
  • 16. Team Inquisitive, SIOM Thank You..!!