1. Disaster Management
& Climate Change Adaptation:
Where the Gap Lies?
Research Team
Global Change Programme
Jadavpur University, Kolkata
Presented by
Shyamasree Dasgupta
In
National workshop on Climate Smart disaster Risk Management
New Delhi, April 7, 2010

2. Projected Impacts of Climate Change
0 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C
Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Possible rising yields in Falling yields in many
some high latitude regions developed regions
Water Significant fall in water
Small mountain glaciers Sea level rise
availability e.g. Mediterranean
disappear – melt-water
and Southern Africa threatens major cities
supplies threatened in
several areas
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage Rising number of species face extinction
to Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)

3. Vulnerability: Operational Definition
Vulnerability =
f (Potential Impact -Adaptive Capacity)
•Exposure –direct Adaptive Capacity –
danger due to Climate potential to cope
Variability with impacts
•Sensitivity - Human
and Environmental
Conditions that trigger
impact

4. Disaster
management Adaptation
Perception Perception:
 Disasters are Irregular  Disasters will be increasing
 Highly Random Events  Randomness remains: but
 Mostly Unpredictable some predictions possible
Philosophy : Low probability Philosophy: reduction in
of Disaster
randomness of disaster
Disaster Management
emerged as Ad hoc, Adaptation gives scope for pro-
Reactive Financial active strategy
Support policy aimed development to generate
at Impact Damage safeguard against climate
Repair vulnerability

5. Case Studies:

6. Coastal Inundation in Sagar Block
of Indian Sundarban

7. Damage Cost
Asset Lost Physical Damage Damage Cost
(Rs)
Land 1355 acres 328540000
Livestock 3826 nos. 4304800
Food (paddy) stock 129775 kgs 1946625
Fishing Nets 703 nos. 1054500
Boats 46 nos. 920000
Solar Lighting Systems 1 no. 15000
Savings in liquid cash Rs 163200 163200
Total 336944125

8. Disaster Management Support
Institution Type of Support
Government Land, Single Room Brick Houses, Dry Food,
Canvas, Embankment Building/Repair
NGO Dry Food, Canvas, Information on Natural
Calamities
Relatives Cash, Manpower
 Maximum support received from Government
 Maximum compensation for Land Loss (16.8%)
 Government Support compensated for only 17% of the
Damage Cost

9. Proposed Adaptation Framework
Capital Investment in Resilience Building
Infrastructure (Cyclone resistant houses,
embankment)
Maintenance Investment in Resilience Building
Infrastructure
Long term Adaptive Capacity Creation in lieu of
Recurring Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure

10. Disaster Management vs.
Adaptation
Compensation per household (in Rs Lakhs) 1.9
Investment required per household (in Rs Lakhs) for :
a) Cyclone resistant houses & saline embankment 0.83 (44%)
b) Cyclone resistant houses & concrete embankment 3.2 (167%)
•Mainstreaming of Adaptation Strategy as against Recurring & Ad
hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure
•Initial investment – High
•Long term benefits – Financial, Resilience Capacity Generation
and Sustainable Development

11. Drought Prone River Basins:
Sabarmati, Mahanadi & Alakananda

12. Vulnerability Assessment of Hotspots
Category Sabarmati Mahanadi
% of hhlds. showing a more than
10% fall in monthly expenditure 84 100
during extreme events
% of hhlds showing a more than
10% fall in monthly food budget 28 84
during extreme events
% rise in the price of staple food
10 to 50 85 to 150
during extreme events

13. % of house holds
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dissav e
Borrow
money
Mortgage
property
Sell
property
Lease out
property
Sell
liv estock
Sell log
Migration
Work in
Gov t project
Sav e f odder
Buy f odder
Coping Strategies – Sabarmati Hotspot

14. % of households
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Store dry
f ood,medicines
Labour w ork
Protect
livestock
Flood resistant
houses
Contingency
f unds
Buy polythene
Pray
Coping Strategies – Mahanadi Hotspot

15. No. of hhlds.
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
Safe drinking
water
House damage
compensation
Easy loans
Crop damage
compensation
Health
Facilities
Need Curve - Mahanadi Hotspot
Reactive Adaptation Need
Adaptation S ervice Demanded
Fig. 71 Need Curve – Mahanadi Hotspot
Food aid
Communication
links
PDS

16. Possible Policies
 Agricultural Insurance
 Infrastructure Development by Stakeholders
 R&D into Alternative Farming Technology
- Inter-Cropping
- Crop substitution

17. Derived Conceptual Framework

18. Proactive/ Planned
Adaptation Strategy
Asset Creation
Investment in Increase in
Resources Adaptive Capacity
Increase in
Decline in
Productivity &
Vulnerability
Surplus
Increase in
Resilience

19. THANK YOU