The document summarizes an internal survey by SEB of expectations for the upcoming Riksbank monetary policy decision and market reaction. Key points: 1) 82% of respondents expect the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged, while 18% expect a 25 basis point cut. 2) If rates stay unchanged, the survey expects Swedish bond yields to rise up to 10 basis points and the euro to fall 2-6 figures against the krona. 3) If rates are cut, yields could fall 7-12 basis points and the euro rise 4-7 figures against the krona. 4) On average, respondents expect the repo rate to be 1.27% by

1. AHEAD OF SEB internal survey:
THE RIKSBANK Repo rate and expected market reaction
Trading Strategy
www.seb.se/research

2. Key points for April 18
Market pricing as of Apr 16, 16.00 CET vs. Riksbank’s current (Feb) rate path
 End-2012: Market 1.19% vs. Riksbank 1.50%
 End-2013: Market 1.36% vs. Riksbank 2.12%
 End-2014: Market 1.62% vs. Riksbank 2.90%
SEB internal survey: FI & FX trading and sales expect…
 82% of respondents expect an unchanged repo rate, 18% expect a 25bps rate cut in April
 If an unchanged repo rate: Up to 10bps higher 2y yield, 2-6 fig lower EUR/SEK
 If 25bps cut: 7-12bps lower 2y yield, 4-7 fig higher EUR/SEK (full results on next page)
 Avg respondent expects a repo rate of 1.27% in end-2012 (min 1.00%, max 1.75%)
SEB investor survey: Domestic investors expect…
 92% of respondents expect an unch repo rate while 8% expect a 25bps rate cut
 Rate decision is regarded as much more certain than that in Feb and Dec
 Average respondent expects the Riksbank to maintain the repo rate unchanged
 Note that the investor survey was conducted between Mar 28 and Apr 2
SEB Research expects…
 Main scenario (75%): Unchanged repo rate and the rate trajectory
 Dovish scenario (25%): 25bps rate cut and no indications of further rate cuts
 For details of the investor survey and our views, see Fixed Income Insights,
Apr 4 (click here) and Apr 12 (click here) 2

3. SEB internal survey: Expected market reaction
with different repo rate decisions and rate paths
Riksbank rate path indicates
a repo rate in December 2012 at:
Rate 1.13% 1.25% 1.38% 1.50%
If unchanged repo rate chg on =same as
Apr 18: in Feb
 2y yield to increase Unch 2y yield: 2y yield: 2y yield:
 Stronger krona at Not -1bps +4bps +10bps
1.50% relevant EUR/SEK: EUR/SEK: EUR/SEK:
-2ig -4fig -6fig
If 25bps rate cut 25bps 2y yield: 2y yield:
cut to -12bps -7bps Not Not
 2y yield to decline 1.25% EUR/SEK: EUR/SEK: relevant relevant
 Krona to weaken +7fig +4fig
Results based on an internal survey within SEB FX and FI trading and sales on Apr 16.
2y benchmark yield (SGB1041 2014) ref 1.06%, EUR/SEK ref 8.89
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 3

4. Current repo rate path: Market vs. Riksbank
Current market pricing implies a 16bps rate cut on Apr 18
Market Riksbank SEB Market vs.
Effective pricing Feb 2012 forecast
date Repo chg Repo chg Repo chg RB SEB
2012-04-16 1.50 1.50 1.50 Riksbank repo rate (%)
2012-04-25 1.34 -16.0 1.50 0 1.50 0 -16 -16 3.50 3.50
2012-07-11 1.22 -12.5 1.50 0 1.25 -25 -29 -3
2012-09-12 1.19 -3.0 1.50 0 1.00 -25 -32 19 3.00 3.00
2012-10-31 1.19 0.0 1.50 0 1.00 0 -32 19
2.50 2.50
2012-12-19 1.19 0.0 1.50 0 1.00 0 -32 19
2013-02-13 1.20 1.5 1.50 0 1.00 0 -30 20 2.00 2.00
2013-04-17 1.23 2.5 1.57 7 1.00 0 -35 23
2013-07-03 1.26 3.0 1.71 14 1.00 0 -46 26 1.50 1.50
2013-09-04 1.29 3.5 1.85 14 1.00 0 -56 29
1.00 1.00
2013-10-23 1.33 3.5 1.98 13 1.00 0 -66 33
2013-12-18 1.36 3.5 2.12 14 1.00 0 -76 36 0.50 0.50
04/12
07/12
10/12
01/13
04/13
07/13
10/13
01/14
04/14
07/14
10/14
01/15
2014-02-12 1.40 4.0 2.29 17 -89
2014-04-16 1.44 4.0 2.42 13 -98
2014-07-02 1.48 4.0 2.57 15 -109
Riksbank (Feb) SEB f/c Mkt pricing
2014-09-03 1.53 4.5 2.71 14 -119
2014-10-22 1.57 4.5 2.80 9 -123
2014-12-17 1.62 4.5 2.90 10 -129
2015-02-18 1.66 4.5 3.05 15
Note: Levels as of Apr 16, 16.00 CET
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 4

5. What has happened since Feb 16?
Compared to Riksbank Rate path
SEB research: What February Monetary Policy
Update
CPI inflation Both CPIF (1.1%) in line with 
Riksbank’s macro view Inflation
Riksbank’s forecast in March,
CPIF ex energy slightly lower
Household expectations 
Expectations increased to 2.8% in March;
Prospera expectations stable.
Labour market Largely in line with the 
Riksbank forecast; both
employment and
unemployment slightly lower.
Employment indicators only
moderately lower.
GDP Q4 GDP significantly below 
Riksbank forecast.
Household Retail sales rising and car 
demand registrations stable. Consumer
confidence recovered, moving
higher.
Industry Weak exports behind Q4 GDP, 
but some recovery in Q1. Major
recovery in manufacturing
sentiment according to NIER,
PMI above 50 in February. Very
weak orders and production in
February
Housing prices House prices have levelled out 
/ credit growth or even increased slightly
according to some measures.
SEB housing price indicator
well above zero.
Global economy PMIs and sentiment indicators 
/ global have stabilised in the Euro-
monetary policy zone and signal growth in the
US. Some downside revisions
to consensus growth estimates
for the Euro-zone but slight
upgrades for the US.
Financial Stock markets strong and lower 
conditions: stock credit spreads. Sovereign
market /credit spreads mixed but some
improvement in Spain and Italy.
Markets turbulence has
returned in last 1-2 weeks
Financial SEK (TCW) in line with 
conditions: SEK Riksbank Q2 forecast.
Mortgage spreads have
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK tightened. 5

6. Short-term fair value model vs. EUR/SEK
SEB research: EUR/SEK EUR/SEK
 EUR/SEK reaction to the Riksbank rate decision is skewed
to the downside given the market pricing for a rate cut.
Having said that the interest rate market moved very
quickly from low to high rate cut probability following the
poor industrial production number last week and the more
negative global environment for risk appetite.
 Overall the range in EUR/SEK 8.78/98 is probably intact
and we continue to hold a short trading recommendation in
EUR/SEK. We expect EUR/SEK to decline on unch rates.
 Riksbank forecasts EUR/SEK to move down towards our
own long-term fair value estimate at 8.50 during the TCW Index and Riksbank forecast
coming 12 months. Hence at the current level, SEK is not a Riksbank expects EUR/SEK towards 8.50 Q1-13
factor in any direction for monetary policy. 155 12.0
150 11.5
 Corporates continue to hold large FX deposits indicating
145 11.0
they have changed their FX hedging behavior. We would
EUR/SEK
140 10.5
Index
expect parts of theses funds to be repatriated should SEK 135 10.0
weaken materially beyond 9.00 vs. the euro. 130 9.5
 Our 1m, end-Q2 and end-2011 EUR/SEK forecasts are 8.80, 125 9.0
120 8.5
8.65 and 8.50 respectively. Given that EMU risks are on the
115 8.0
agenda again (Spain), the risk is that our anticipated SEK 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
appreciation takes longer to materialize and that SEK
weakens vs. the USD. TCW (Riksbank fc) EUR/SEK
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 6

7. Investor survey: 92% expect the RB to remain on hold
and maintain an unchanged repo rate path on Apr 18
 92% believe the Riksbank will remain on hold on April 18 while remaining 8% expect it to cut by
25bps.
 The upcoming rate decision is thought considerably less uncertain than the February outcome
(note: survey conducted between Mar 28 and Apr 2, i.e. before weak industrial production data)
 Most respondents (80%) expect further reservations by both Ekholm and Svensson or by
Svensson alone (20%)
Survey expectations for Feb rate path Difference expected repo path by YE12 and YE13 vs.
3.50 market pricing
200
3.00 Diff 2012 exp path vs. market pricing
180 Diff 2013 exp path vs. market pricing
160
2.50
140
2.00 120
100
1.50
80
1.00 60
40
0.50 20
0
0.00
Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Market pricing Exp path Apr survey Riksbank (Feb)
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 7

8. Investor survey:
36% expect the Riksbank to cut by end-July
Some 36% of respondents expect the repo rate to stand at 1.25% by end-July. Average
expected repo rate by end- July of 1.41% (cf. 1.29% in our February survey).
By the end of this year, on average the repo rate is expected to stand at 1.39% (cf.
1.20%). We note that as many as 52% expects and unchanged repo rate at 1.50% by
year-end.
Expected repo rate YE 2012
52%
32%
24%
20%
16% 16%
8% 8% 8%
4% 4% 4% 4%
0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.50
April survey February survey
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 8

9. Investor survey:
Riksbank board regarded as more hawkish
New board deemed as hawkish as the old board in December
Market hawk-o-meter for the Riksbank
Scale 1 (dovish) to 7 (haw kish)
6
5.3
5.1 5
5
4.2 4.3 4.3
4 3.9
4
3
2.4
2
2 1.8 1.8
1
0
Svensson Ekholm af Jochnick Jansson W-Parak Ingves
April February
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 9

10. Investor survey:
Domestic risks have decreased
Market ranking of Riksbank drivers
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Apr
-25
Feb
-30
Sw edish Sw e Stock Bank ECB Sw e Sw e Global
krona housing market stress monetary inflation grow th grow th
market policy
2012-04-16 | AHEAD OF THE RIKSBANK 10