Presentation climate change vulnerable community

National Seminar on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation, 2012

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABLE COMMUNITY: A CASE OF
COASTAL BANGLADESH

Authors: Saimum Kabir and Qazi Azizul Mowla

Introduction

It has been now widely accepted that community in the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ: 0-
10m) will be largely affected by the anticipated sea level rise (SLR). However, the extent or
degree of impact primarily depends on regional and local geo-morphology and socio-economic
context. Being a densely populated low elevation coastal delta, Bangladesh stands to be the worst
affected one. Of the 40 deltas globally, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh is identified
as an ‘extreme vulnerable’ coastal delta where more than 20 million population is estimated to be
displaced by anticipated sea level trends to 2100 (IPCC,2007) .

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Problem statement

Interior coast >> Severe drainage congestion / water logging

Exterior coast >> Storm surge inundation, seasonal
inundation due to rainfall, increased intensity of cyclone,

Both areas>> Increase in water and soil salinity

02

Problem statement

Impact of SLR on human settlement:

Permanent inundation Loss of habitable land and ecosystem in
directly affected area

The rehabilitation of the displaced
Mass displacement of population population will exert additional pressure to
the settlement in relatively safe area.

02

Vulnerability of coastal community

Historically the coastal community of Bangladesh is exposed to the risk of Bio-physical hazards
like cyclones, storm surge, salinity and tidal flooding. This multi-hazard proneness in together
with the limited capacity of communities and local authorities to respond to the existing
hazards, weak preparedness, insufficient protection measures and lack of community based
organizations makes the people more vulnerable to anticipated future risk.

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As predicated by IWM and CEGIS (2007),

1. Interior coast of southwest region may experience severe drainage congestion /
waterlogging due to 62cm sea level rise ( SLR). About 32% more area will be deeply
inundated due to overtopping of embankment.

2. Exposed coast of central and eastern region will experience increased intensity of cyclone
and seasonal inundation due to increased rainfall in addition to 62 cm sea level rise. Beside this
area will be severely exposed to storm surge inundation. About 16% more area in Patukahali
and 18% of Chittagong district will be inundated seasonally due to sea level rise and high tide.

3. In both areas salinity problem will be increased from the existing situation.

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Storm surge inundation risk for predicated climate change context by the year 2050

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Chang (1968) viewed settlement as proxy of community. He defined settlement as “the physical
locale where the members of a community lived….” . So it can be asserted that vulnerability of
coastal community is largely determined by the vulnerability of coastal settlement. According to
Pelling (2003) “ Vulnerability of settlement is measured on the scale of nature and severity of the
event as well as the physical and socio economic factors that determine the degree of settlement
resilience; how they are affected and capacity of settlement component or community to recover”

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Objectives

The study aims to identify key vulnerability of coastal community in terms of risk exposure and
resilience capacity of the settlement.

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Identification of key variables

1. Settlement pattern and density :
- People who lived in scattered settlements near to the coast and in linear settlements along the
coastal embankment are more susceptible to cyclonic sea surge.
-The more dense the settlement , the more people is at risk.
2. Housing characteristics
-Jupri and katcha house lack proper jointing and anchorage details to withstand high and
sudden loading generated by cyclone induced tidal surges and thus is most vulnerable among
all .
3. Access to community shelter
- shelter can save life in extreme hazard situation.
4. Access to high land or pacca road
-Good road communication can save life in two ways – i) proving safe route from community
to shelter earlier to hazard event ; ii) ensuring post disaster outside assistance and
transportation of relief goods.
5. Access to emergency health facility
-Health facilities are emergency Medicare provider and important post-event source of relief.
6. Access to primary education facility
-Illiteracy constrains the ability of a person to understand early warning and access to recovery
information.
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Study Area: Dhulasar Union , Kalapara Upazila

CHAR GANGAMATI
BAY OF BENGAL

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Assessment of Vulnerability

Operational Definition : Vulnerability is a composite index of settlements exposure to
geophysical risk and capacity of settlement’s physical components i.e. housing and infrastructure
to cope with.

In this study spatial vulnerability of Dhulasar union at community level is analyzed based on
selective indicators following ‘Analysis grid’ (250mx250m) method.

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Vulnerability of settlement

Exposure to Geo- Resilience capacity of
climatic risk settlement features

Housing Infrastructure

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Indicators Proxy variables
Exposure to Geophysical Wind Wind speed *
risk Storm surge inundation Depth of inundation
Resilience capacity of Housing Density of katcha house
settlement pattern Infrastructure Proximity to nearest cyclone
shelter
Proximity to nearest pacca
road / high land
Proximity to nearest health
care facility
Proximity to nearest primary
school
* Exposure to wind risk is measured on the basis of cyclone risk zone as identified in the study of Multipurpose
Cyclone Shelter Program ( MCSP) ( BUET & BIDS , 1993). According to MCSP study the Dhulasar union of
Kalapara upazila falls in High Risk Area ( HRA) and thus the exposure to wind risk is considered same in all parts
of the union.

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METHOD Analysis Grid

HIGH

LOW 12

Step 01 Measuring Geo-physical risk

Storm surge inundation risk map of Kalapara Upazila. (MoFDM, 2009) Storm surge inundation risk map of Dhulasar Union adopted from
MoFDM, 2009

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Step 02 Measuring Resilience Capacity of Housing Structure

More Resilient

Less Resilient

Housing Capacity Index (HCi ) = Ratio Index (Ri) _katcha house / Ri max _katcha house

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Step 03 Measuring Infrastructural Capacity

Selected variables with weighting value
Variables weight comments Contributing
period
Proximity to nearest 0.40 Most desired destination. Shelter can During disaster
Cyclone shelter act as safe house for the affected. safety
Proximity to nearest 0.30 Provide safe evacuation route and During and post
high land / pacca road temporary shelter for refugee and disaster safety and
livestock rehabilitation
Proximity to nearest 0.20 source of emergency medicare and Post disaster
Health facility relief recovery
Proximity to nearest 0.10 Raise awareness and provide Pre disaster
primary school information for early recovery preparedness
Total 1.00

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Step 03 Measuring Infrastructural Capacity

Composite Infrastructural Capacity Index (CICi) = ∑ Wi * Access to service Index (ASi) / n

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Step 04 Composite Index of Settlement Capacity ( Housing + Infrastructure)

Housing index

Infrastructure index

Composite Settlement Capacity Index (CSCi)= Housing Index (HCi )X 0.6 + Infrastructure Index (CICi )X 0.4

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Step 05 Comparison of results: Analyzing Geo-climatic Vulnerability of Settlement

Baraharpara Baraharpara

Char Gangamati Char Gangamati

Geo-physical risk exposure of Dhulasar Union Resilience capacity of settlement of Dhulasar Union

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Step 05 Comparison of results: Analyzing Geo-climatic Vulnerability of Settlement

Degree of Geo-climatic vulnerability and pattern of settlement in Dhulasar Union.
Village/ locality Settlements Settlements Settlement Settlement pattern
Exposure to Geo- resilience vulnerability Rn
physical risk (-) capacity (+)

Char Dhulasar Highest Moderate High dispersed 1.04
Char Gangamti Highest Lowest Highest semi dispersed 0.56
Kawar Char High Moderate High dispersed 1.00
East Dhulasar High Low High semi dispersed 0.79
West Dhulasar Moderate Moderate Moderate dispersed 1.00
Ananta para Moderate Highest Low dispersed 1.34
Baultali Moderate Lowest High semi linear 0.49
Muslim para Moderate Lowest High dispersed 1.49
Nayakata Moderate Moderate Moderate semi dispersed 0.95
Tarikata Moderate Low Moderate semi dispersed 0.95
Char Chapli Low Highest Lowest dispersed 1.13
West Char Chapli Low High Low semi dispersed 0.97
Gangamti Low Moderate Low semi linear 0.42
Barahpara Lowest Lowest Low semi dispersed 0.67
Nutan para Lowest Low Low dispersed 1.13
0.00-0.09 – absolute cluster/ nucleated, 0.10-0.22 semi nucleated, 0.23-0.39linear, 0.40- .49 semi linear, 0.50 –.99 semi-dispersed, 1.00- 1.50 dispersed/ scattered

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Statistics of Highest and High vulnerable locality of Dhulasar union.
Most vulnerable Storm surge Household % of Nearest high Nearest Nearest Nearest
Locality Inundation depth density (per katcha land /pacca cyclone health care educational
(m) sqkm) house road shelter facility facility
Min Max (km) (km) (km) (Primary
school)
(km)

Char Dhulasar 2.00* 6.00 120 89% 0.26 0.81 4.84 0.48
.01 .78 0.1 2.0 4.0 6.7 .09 .98
Char 2.00 5.00 65 81% 0.50 0.97 2.53 0.97
Gangamati .01 1.13 .12 1.8 1.8 3.4 .12 1.8
Kawar Char 1.00** 6.00 57 95% 0.39 0.95 2.19 0.71
.01 .86 .09 2.7 .66 3.8 .50 1.7
East Dhulasar 2.00** 4.00 110 69% 0.16 1.76 5.44 0.79
.01 .55 .69 2.8 4.0 6.7 0.1 1.46

*Area along the Embankment remains partly inundated (0-1.0 m)
** Area along the Embankment remains inundation free

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Filed verification : Char Gangamati

Embankment

Gangamati Forest

m
500
B a y o f B e n g a l

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