Executive summary Research suggests that changing climate trends are responsible for increasingly volatile weather patterns – particularly flooding. While sorting out influences from natural cycles and human-induced changes is an area of ongoing study, the reality is federal, local and state governments, along with private enterprise, must be aware of the increased risk of flooding. Integrated, real-time information is invaluable to these agencies when creating emergency preparedness plans. The earth’s climate can be influenced by both natural and human factors. Natural causes of climate variability, such as the seasonal El Niño/La Niña ocean cycles, can influence the atmospheric circulation patterns, creating wetter/drier and warmer/colder patterns when the prevailing jet stream winds shift. Another seasonal influence is the North Atlantic Oscillation. This upper-level circulation pattern in the polar latitudes can produce abnormally warm or cold periods over large parts of North America. Longer-term influences occur with ocean temperature patterns, volcanoes and the sun. Humans can also change the climate, through deforestation, agriculture and urbanization. For instance, replacing a forest with a city or bare soil raises the temperature of the land due to increased heat absorption and/or retention. Agriculture tends to cool an area, especially when irrigated. Deforestation removes natural biological storage units of carbon dioxide. Tiling of farm fields adds additional run-off into streams and rivers, especially during more intense rain events.

1. The effects of climate change:
the use of real-time, integrated
data in flood preparedness
Executive summary
Research suggests that changing climate trends are
responsible for increasingly volatile weather patterns –
particularly flooding. While sorting out influences from
natural cycles and human-induced changes is an area
of ongoing study, the reality is federal, local and state
governments, along with private enterprise, must be
aware of the increased risk of flooding. Integrated, real-
time information is invaluable to these agencies when
creating emergency preparedness plans.
By: Jeremy Duensing, product manager, Schneider Electric

2. Schneider Electric White Paper Revision 0 Page 2
The earth’s climate can be influenced by both natural and human factors. Natural causes of
climate variability, such as the seasonal El Niño/La Niña ocean cycles, can influence the
atmospheric circulation patterns, creating wetter/drier and warmer/colder patterns when the
prevailing jet stream winds shift. Another seasonal influence is the North Atlantic Oscillation. This
upper-level circulation pattern in the polar latitudes can produce abnormally warm or cold periods
over large parts of North America. Longer-term influences occur with ocean temperature
patterns, volcanoes and the sun.
Humans can also change the climate, through deforestation, agriculture and urbanization. For
instance, replacing a forest with a city or bare soil raises the temperature of the land due to
increased heat absorption and/or retention. Agriculture tends to cool an area, especially when
irrigated. Deforestation removes natural biological storage units of carbon dioxide. Tiling of farm
fields adds additional run-off into streams and rivers, especially during more intense rain events.
A changing climate can have many consequences for communities, infrastructure and
governments. One of the most devastating results is the increase in the frequency of volatile
weather events, such as flooding. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) concluded that intense rain events have become more frequent in the last 50 years. This,
combined with increased run-off from land use changes, means more significant flash flood
events could occur. In addition, as the oceans warm, scientists predict that the number of
hurricanes, and potentially their intensity, could increase. Higher sea levels from warmer waters
can lead to greater storm surges.
Increased flooding has the potential to wreak havoc on major population centers in the U.S.
There are 3,800 towns and cities in the flood plain in the U.S. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey, flooding costs the country more than $7 billion in damages and kills more
than 90 people each year. During the last century, floods claimed more in terms of number of
lives and property damage than any other type of natural disaster. Assuming no change in
built infrastructure or values, a 2013 article in the Journal of Flood Risk Management
projected an increase of approximately 30 percent in damages from flooding by the end of the
century.
The trends in flooding frequency and severity are likely to continue, according to an article in
Nature that found that the recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in the
risk of great floods is consistent with results from a climate model, and that model suggests
that the trend will persist. Therefore, federal, state and local governments and agencies must
be prepared.
To prepare for the likely increase in frequency and severity of devastating floods, public safety
officials must arm themselves with aggregated, accurate data that gives a more complete picture
of conditions. This improved visibility will not only better inform their decisions, but allow them to
make faster decisions based on real-time data. Traditionally, several disparate sources were
needed to gather information on the two key factors that determined flood conditions: flooding
parameters and weather conditions. But now, all of this information can be integrated and
presented in a dashboard that provides a clear, real-time snapshot of the environment.
Flooding parameters
When monitoring conditions for potential flooding, a clear understanding of three most important
parameters is critical: water level, tide prediction and wave height. New technology gives
managers the ability to set alert parameters and to be notified whenever one of these factors
crosses a threshold that triggers a response.
Climate
change
factors
The impacts
of a
changing
climate

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Tide prediction: Tide predictions are based on the gravitational force of the moon and sun
acting on large bodies of water at a given time. These are especially helpful when severe
weather and rainfall are approaching, as the tide can significantly impact the severity of
conditions. For example, a storm that hits at low tide may not require the same level of
preparation and resources as a storm that arrives at high tide.
Water level: The measurement of a body of water’s level is an obvious factor when determining
the likelihood of a flood, but quick access to accurate readings may be difficult. Plotting water
level observations from thousands of ocean buoys and river gauges alongside other high-impact
weather information such as radar and local storm reports, a public safety manager increases his
or her situational awareness with a real-time, geographic representation of high-impact ocean
tides and river depths.
In addition, hourly forecasts of ocean water levels give critical guidance on where large-scale
weather patterns will be having an impact on tide levels in the future. This pinpoints specific
times of day where a normal tide may be higher than expected due to strong storms and winds.
Wave height: Not only should an official have the technology that indicates exactly when high
tide will occur and its level, but he or she should also have an understanding of wave conditions
during that time to better predict how communities and infrastructure may be impacted. High
waves may have little impact if they are predicted to occur during low tide. These same high
waves occurring during a higher than normal tide may have a much higher impact and will direct
the size and type of barriers needed, if any.
The importance of weather forecasting
Current technologies can combine real-time data with accurate weather forecasting to give
officials an even more powerful tool for storm preparedness: An operator can use a real-time
map of water conditions and overlay an hourly forecast to achieve optimal awareness of when
the water levels, tides and wave heights will coincide with high-impact weather. For example, a
large amount of rain in the forecast, coupled with expected high wave heights, is relayed in one,
integrated tool that helps managers better prepare for increasingly volatile and severe weather.
The climate is changing, and with it the frequency and severity of extreme weather events,
including floods. Managers must have a clear view of current circumstances in their territory, as
well as an accurate understanding of how forecasted weather events will strengthen or mitigate
the impact of severe weather. With an aggregated view of flooding parameters and integrated
weather forecasts, resources can be mobilized more quickly, communities can receive more
advanced warning, and managers can better protect people and infrastructure.
Conclusion

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IPCC, 2007, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
USGS, 2012, The Anatomy of Floods: The Causes and Developments of 2011’s Epic Flood
Events,
http://gallery.usgs.gov/videos/588#.UoJ5mhnnbIU
Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2013, Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the
United States under a changing climate,
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jfr3.12043/pdf
Nature, 2002, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v415/n6871/full/415514a.html
©2013SchneiderElectric.Allrightsreserved.
Resources
About the author
Jeremy Duensing is a product manager for the Weather division of Schneider Electric,
focusing on constantly creating new and innovative solutions that help customers make
better weather decisions. Duensing holds a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology from the
University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He joined Schneider Electric in 1998 as part of the
company’s weather forecasting team, and is responsible for Schneider Electric’s forecast
verification program.