Mr Market wants to go higher but it needs to settle back and absorb some of its recent gains. Crude oil and gold look awful, while the US Dollar Index is on its way to a "moon shot."
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November 22, 2015 with charts
1. Option Queen Letter
By the Option Royals
Jeanette Young, CFP®
, CMT, M.S. and Jordan Young, CMT
4305 Pointe Gate Drive
Livingston, New Jersey 07039
www.OptnQueen.com
optnqueen@aol.com
November 22, 2015
We are fortunate to live in a free country where we are allowed to express our feelings. No
matter what people say there is a freedom here for both men and women which all enjoy whether
they are visitors to our shores or residents. To learn how precious this freedom is, travel to
another country where these freedoms are not permitted and you will understand all too quickly
how lucky we are. Along with these freedoms comes a responsibility for those who reap their
benefits to protect them.
The current increase in wages is not going to solve the economic problems of average wage
earner. Raising interest rates certainly won’t help those living on the edge. We agree that the
FOMC cannot remain at zero indefinitely but something is really wrong with their thesis. We
have been at zero interest rates for almost a decade and have not seen the economy expand. That
is because the benefits of zero interest rates flows to the wealthiest of the population and not the
average worker. Until the FOMC begins to understand this, we are doomed to this shallow
economic expansion.
Our tax code is antiquated and oppressive….it takes scholars to understand and interpret the
rules. The system is so screwed up that multi-millionaires like Warren Buffett with enormous
passive income get both Medicare and social security. Remember the time when Buffett stated
that he pays less in taxes than does his secretary? Yes they paid into the system but do they
really need those few dollars to survive. We would rather see the money returned to the coffers
and keep the system going for a while longer. As to the tax code, a Value Added Tax would be
a fair tax to the average tax payer. All those people demanding cash for services rendered would
finally pay their fair share. There should be a levy for earnings from both passive and ordinary
incomes that are greater than $250.000 and the rest of us should not have to pay any tax or a very
moderate flat tax.. We should sell the real-estate that the IRS owns and return the money to the
2. people. Government employees and the congress should get the same health care that we are
forced to deal with. Congressional pensions should be cut to ribbons. Do they really need that
money? They are in the service of the people not to take advantage of the people.
Back to the markets. We are in a seasonally strong period for our market. The end of the year is
approaching and many portfolio managers are playing catch-up with the markets trying to out-
perform them. As to the terrorist attacks, Mr. Market basically has always tended to bounce
back quickly from these incidents. It is almost as though the market is telling the terrorist that
the terrorists have no control over the financial markets. The market can be brought to its knees
with events like Bear and Lehman but that is different.
The S&P 500 rallied 9.5 handles (points) in the Friday session leaving a bullish looking
candlestick on the chart. This rally has lasted five days and as such is getting over-extended.
We would not be surprised to see some slight retreat or backing and filling before the next rally
begins. This is a shortened trading week as we American’s celebrate Thanksgiving on Thursday
and shopping on Friday, known as “Black Friday.” It is such an important shopping day for the
retailers that the markets close early to allow shoppers to abandon their posts in favor of the
Mall. All the indicators that we follow continue to point higher. Most of the day’s volume was
seen at 2089 which was also a frequently traded price along with 2090 and 2084 to 2086. The 60
minute0.2% by 3-box point and figure chart has an upside target of 2169.65. The daily 1% by 3-
box point and figure chart has an upside target of 2542.39. Our chart shows us that it is possible
to see this index at 2154 or by December 15. Naturally, if the market fails at 2110.25, all best to
the upside are off. That said, we have a more ominous view of the market for 2016’s first
quarter which, we believe will be difficult.
3.
4.
5.
6. The NASDAQ 100 rallied 30 handles (points) in the Friday session. All the indicators that we
follow continue to point higher with room to the upside. Yes, we have been up for the past five
trading days and it is likely that we will have a small retreat within a day or so, but the seasonals
remain favorable. The Bollinger Bands look as though they are about ready to begin expanding
again which would bring additional volatility into the market. The most frequently traded price
in the Friday session was 4683.9-4684 also which was the high volume area for the day. The 60
minute 0.2% by 3-box chart has an upside target of 4795.95 and looks very positive. The daily
1% by 3-box point and figure chart has a new downside target of 4058.33 and a slightly older
upside target of 6350.61. We would be inclined to believe the downside number for the time
being remembering that the seasonality is positive. The bottom line is; we are slightly
overbought and have been rallying for a number of days, it is quite likely that we will pull back a
tad from these levels. Thursday the markets are closed and Friday is a half day so most of the
action will be seen by the close of Wednesday’s session.
7.
8.
9. The Russell 2000 rallied 9.40 handles (points) in the Friday session trying to catch up to the
other indices. This index retreated in the Thursday session but put in a very bullish looking
candlestick in the Friday session. Both the RSI and stochastic indicators are pointing higher with
plenty of room to the upside. Clearly the majority of the volume was seen near the close. The
high volume area was 1173, which was the last print of the day. The most frequently traded
number was 1172.40. The 17 by 3-box reversal point and figure chart remains bullish for the
moment. These small capitulation companies generally do not have the global exposure that is
seen in the large multi-nationals therefore the strong US Dollar has less effect on their earnings.
10.
11. Crude Oil closed close to the lows in the Friday session. The low of 38.99 was a horizontal
support line. There is a lower support line at 37.75. The chart looks awful. The channel
downtrend levels are 38.90 and 41.29. The indicators are all oversold and we are seeing a
possible signal to go long in our own indicators. There are some small divergences seen here in
the other indicators also. Although we are making significantly lower levels in price, the
indicators are not making lower lows. This tells us to watch this chart very carefully for a
12. possible change of direction. The 60 minute 0.7 by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside
target of 37.61. The chart looks awful. The daily 0.9% by 3-box chart has a downside target of
29.84 again an awful looking chart unless you are short the market. The most frequently traded
price in the Friday session was 41.90. At least the Market Profile chart looks fairly stable for the
moment. That comment is the most positive comment we can make about crude oil.
13.
14. Gold retreated slightly in the Friday session. Wondering why gold rallied with the US Dollar?
Instability in the world leads to a renewed interest in the safety of gold. Have no fear, it is short
lived unless the US Dollar retreats or something else blows up. The chart is the worst looking
chart we have seen in a long time. We do see divergences in the indicators telling us to be wary
and careful. The downward trending channel lines are 1087.34 and 1056.97. The most
frequently traded price in the Friday session was 1082. The RSI is pointing lower at almost
15. oversold levels, the stochastic is curling over but not issuing a sell-signal. Our own indicator has
issued a buy-signal. The daily 0.9% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of
1046.03. The 60 minute 0.25% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of 1003.62
which looks really possible. Trust the trend lines not so much the indicators. Remember the
indicators are there to tell you to become alert and pay more attention which, they are clearly
doing at this time. You should not rely on indicators for buys or sells.
16.
17.
18. The US Dollar index rallied in the Friday session. We are near high of 100.38 seen in March of
this year. The last time the US Dollar was on an aggressive upside rally of this magnitude was as
it approached the highs of 121.29 in July of 2001. The next leg higher should take us to 100.38
then 102. None of this is good for our ability to export US made stuff insomuch as it becomes
very expensive for others to buy. The footnote is, if the product is unique enough it will be
bought if it represents value. As to commodities they will continue to slide under the thumb of
the strong US Dollar. The high volume area of the session was 99.60. The most frequently
traded price was 99.18 much of which was traded in the overnight session. The daily 0.6% by 3-
box point and figure chart has an upside target of 100.7032. This chart looks positive. The 60
minute 0.2% by 3-box point and figure chart also looks positive with an upside target of
105.3559. The Market Profile chart looks rather flat. We would not be surprised to see some
backing and filling in the index.
22. Risk
Trading futures, options on futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves
substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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