Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the most dynamic industry sectors of our times. The future of the ICT industry is shaped by long term socio-economic trends and at the same time ICT will shape the way we work and live in the future. Accordingly, we have developed a framework to set the scene for the year, when today's ICT executives will reach the end of their careers: 2032! What are the most important trends, what do future ICT applications look like and what does this mean for players in the market?

1. Think 2032!
Position for
ICT everywhere
Bonn, January 2011
Deutsche Telekom Group

2. Content
1. The Future ICT Ecosystem
2. ICT meets industries
3. Think 2032!
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3. Content
1. The Future ICT Ecosystem
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4. The Future ICT Ecosystem
There is a plethora of trends influencing the ICT ecosystem. Key for a long-term
projection are sustainable mega trends.
Gone East GDP Distribution 2030
Former emerging Asia is dominant in terms of population and economic
power Others
Presence in Asian ICT markets is scale critical 21% China
Central ICT product developments and innovations originate in China/India 36%
and are globally marketed
19%
India
Triad has aged 24%
Life expectancy grows globally by almost 5 years. N. Americans, Europeans
USA
and Japanese people remain older than their peers
Seniors form a huge global ICT market with several sub-segments requiring
dedicated value propositions Life Expectancy
ICT enabled health/wellness/living are central demand drivers 85
N. America
80 80,9
78,6 Europe
Mostly urbanized 75
Asia
60% of the population lives in urban areas (cities) 70 74,2
Several mega-cities with more than 10m inhabitants have established 65
themselves as economic powerhouses 60 58,2
Africa
ICT smartness with converged ICT enabled infrastructure determines the 55
competitive advantage of such conglomerations
0
Source: OECD, 2010, IMF, 2009 2010 2030
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5. The Future ICT Ecosystem
ICT not only drives globalization to a next level, but fundamentally changes production
and business interaction patterns.
Fully globalized economy World trade
Small and medium enterprises address markets globally benefiting from
advanced ICT infrastructure as well as production and service digitalization in USD trillion
Most multinationals and many large enterprises have a R&D, production and 51
sales footprint on all continents and rely on ICT enabled collaboration along
the complete value chain
+271%
14
Dynamic business networks flourished
Automation of business processes has reached the second next level. ICT 2010 2030
plays a central role in automation of service and management functions
ICT enabled dynamic business networks allow for ad-hoc build up of
production, sales and service value chains with near real time “add-in” and
Business activity share
“phase out” of business partners
March of the machines dynamic biz networks
In the Internet of things machine-to-machine communication prevails 30%
Self-learning smart agents act autonomously in pre defined fields for
consumers and the Internet moves up the data value chain from
search selection recommendation … towards … decision transaction 70%
Smart agents represent business partners in smart business networks
traditional biz networks
Source: OECD, 2010, Detecon, 2010
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6. The Future ICT Ecosystem
From the mega trends in the ICT eco-system six ICT core beliefs result.
1 The economic and ICT center of gravity moves East!
2 The Triade ages and ICT masters the challenges!
3 Mega- cities emerge with ICT as a competitive differentiator!
4 In a globalized economy ICT paves the way for SME biz!
5 The era of smart business networks is to come!
6 Smart agents have the say in the Internet of things!
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7. From the Past to the Future – An ICT Perspective
By looking back we start to realize how far the global ICT industry has come in the last
twenty years and what we can expect from the next two decades.
1994 1995 1999 2003 2006
1.4bn. >4bn.
Internet Mobile
World Users Phone
Wide facebook
Users
Web
1991 1995 1998 2001 2004 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1991 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2009
Pentium 1st MP3 1st UMTS Firefox Launch
Player Network 1.0 iPhone
1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2006 2008 2010
1 Billion
PCs
shipped
GSM MS IEEE 1 GHz
Standard Windows 802.11 iPad
Source: Detecon, Logos are trademark of respective companies
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8. Content
2. ICT meets Industries
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9. ICT meets Energy
The convergence of ICT and energy opens up new growth perspectives through
innovative business models and service offerings.
Market size & development (US) Innovative ICT application fields
With US$ 433 billion, worldwide energy market by far
outreaches the size of ICT technology market which 2010
amounts to US$ 52 billion Demand Response Management
Market for renewable energy technology growing from Automated, price-dependent mgmt.
US$ 55.4 billion in 2006 to US$ 226.5 billion in 2016 of energy supply, based on metered
capacity and demand profiles
General market trend: stagnating demand, increasing
Combination with Digital Home
prices
appliances and applications
Virtual Power Plants
Source: cleanedge, 2009
Centralized, ICT-based management of
distributed energy supply & demand
assets
Market Drivers
Avoidance of peek loads; less
‚Unbundling‘, politically motivated increase of dependency from central energy supply
competition
Climate protection/reduction of CO2 emission
Limited fossil energy resources E-Mobility/Vehicle-to-grid
Usage of decentralized energy storage
Increasing geo-political dependencies
Less dependency from volatile energy
Decentralized energy generation generation
Advancing digitalization/mature ICT technologies at Decoupling of demand & supply
market relevant costs
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10. ICT meets Automotive
Full access to all kind of real time information, multi-media and social network on the
move; innovators like BMW are paving the way towards digitally connected cars.
Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots
2010
Internet in the car BMW Connected Drive
Route and location information
Car remote diagnostic etc.
Seamless digital media
Intelligent traffic management
Centralized ICT based traffic mgmt.
Traffic management; traffic
congestions alerts
Car Online
Car-to-car connection
Communication/info exchange between
individual cars
Improved security systems, innovative
mobility concepts, commercial services
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11. ICT meets Health
Medical will be entirely digital. Innovations such as digital pills are underway.
While enabling new kinds of applications, implanted microchips raise new privacy issues.
Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots
2010
Integrated information networks Health Network Systems
Smart health networks connecting the
main participants of the health system
Comprises data of medical care and
supporting processes
DNA sequencing
Low cost or free access to the results of
complete DNA analysis
Innovative value added services/apps
based on Smart Health functions Body Chips
Connected body implants
Nano-robots: medical surgery on a
molecular basis
Intelligent pills: wireless communication
& steering for targeted administration
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12. ICT in our Living
Things that make life more comforting – augmented reality apps, programmable coffee
machines and mirrors showing the news. The Internet of things becomes ubiquitious.
Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots
2010
Ambient Intelligence Software based decision support
Innovative applications based on sensor
networks, radio technology, computer
processors
Holographic moving images & virtual
reality
Three dimensional moving images and
multi-media formats
Computed images/synthesized real ICT everywhere
world images
Semantic search
Multi-modal semantic search
functionality
Significant increase of the quality level
and spectrum of search results
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13. ICTization
ICT for everyone, everywhere, in virtually every object – that will be the outstanding
characteristic of the world of tomorrow.
1 ICT drives innovation in all areas of life, 3 Data and IP centric business
the Internet of things will be reality. models transform the economy.
2 ICT becomes a key production and differentiation factor in almost all industries.
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14. Content
3. Think 2032!
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15. Think 2032! – From Vertical Disintegration to Horizontal Integration
Standardization and opening of value chain interfaces drive vertical disintegration.
Horizontal integration emerges due to proprietary cross-industry interfaces.
2010 2032
Break up of proprietary
Life & Transport & Health &
interfaces in vertical Energy …
living Mobility Environment
value chains due to:
ICT enabled industry convergence
Regulatory pressure
IP, open API
SalesCo
Opportunities to form new proprietary cross-industry
horizontal value chain interfaces emerge through:
ServCo
Digitalization and virtualization of goods
ICT enabled automation of business processes
Cross-industry economies of scale in sales and marketing
NetCo
Cost synergies in building, operating and maintaining infrastructure
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16. Think 2032! – A New Era of Convergence
The dynamics of ICT-convergence will expand to industry convergence and create a new
industry structure.
4,1 trillion $ ? trillion $
ICT convergence 2010 ICT enabled industry convergence fields 2032
Fixed- Content/ Energy
TC/IT Life & living Transport & Mobility Health & Environment
Mobile IP
cross-industry
SalesCo
Business as Consumer ICT
a Service Mediation
ServCo wholesale
Infrastructure
as a Service
NetCo
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17. Think 2032!
The ICT industry as it exists today will no longer be around in 2032.
How do you position for the future
industry structure ?
For further information
please contact
Dr. Karl-Michael Henneking
Detecon International GmbH
Oberkasseler Str. 2
53227 Bonn · Germany
Karl-Michael.Henneking@detecon.com
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