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Singularity Summit

   Selected Highlights
Evolution and Post-human Future -
            Gregory Stock
• Where are the wonder drugs?
   – Takes year for each clinical trial
   – Approval process broken and much too slow and costly
   – Approves only fixes to deficits, not enhancements
• Will Singularity lead to triumph of human values?
   – More probably will lead to some form of end of humanity
   – We are the old hotness – meat, blood, bone – not the
     future
   – “Consume my heart away; sick with desire and fastened to
     a dying animal..” - Yeats
Evolution and Post-human future 2
• Evolution moves on
  – Bio and complex non-bio is something new
  – Non-bio intelligence is newer still
  – Likely values among post-humans
     • High levels of competition
     • Cheap easy copies making death rather meaningless
     • Uploading disengages humans from body
         – But what of Moravec’s point about our minds being very wedded to our
           evolution even in our metaphors and logic patterns?
  – These beings will have little in common w/ humans
  – “There will be a gradual elimination of all forms of beings
    that we care about” – Bostrom
     • For humans ready/willing/able to transcend, more of a
       transformation, I think.
Evolution, Post-human Future #3
• Chance of preserving human values through
  Singularity?
  – Some super friendly near all powerful singleton
    AGI may control and ensure it
  – Thinks it is impossible
     • “Emergent realm careening toward unknowable future
       will go its own way regardless of our wishes.”
Evolution and Post-Human Future 4
• Signum – his company
  – Targeting Alzheimers with goal of preserving enough of
    brain at least to be worth freezing
  – Noted that Alzheimers is helped by removing phosphate
    buildups on proteins
  – Molecule PP2A help this. Coffee activates this molecule
  – Evidence coffee consumption decreases risk of Alzheimers
    by 50%! Also adult diabetes.
  – Caffeine is not the effectine agent. Sig1012 extract from
    the coffee bean is
  – Can move to human trials quickly because Sig1012 is an
    approved food extract
The Mind and How To Build One –
              Kurzweil
• Started off razzing critics
   – Much of this and his talk was from or similar
     material as @ Citizen Scientist
   – Much ad lib (talk was teleconference)
   – Critics include Doug Hofstader, Jaron Lanier and
     Michael Anissimov (to a much smaller degree)
• Given 10**16 calc/sec for brain
   – Henry Markram (Blue Brain) says this will be
     achieved in 2018
The Mind, How To Build One 2
• Brain has Lisp nature?
  – “..each cortical module is like a Lisp
    statement..incredible hierarchy..”
  – We have good and constantly improving ideas
    how these modules work
  – Says he believes a million or so lisp statements
    could probably model the human brain (?!)
     • Must have been talking with Minsky
AI Against Aging – Ben Goertzel
• AI applied to bioinformatics – CEO, Biomind
  LLC
  – Work in collaboration with Genescent
  – Humans poor at understanding complex, high
    component and relationship count systems
  – This is where AI comes in:
     • Searching for patterns and abstractions within large
       genomic data sets
     • Scanning relevant literature for patterns and
       exploitable knowledge
AI Against Aging 2
• Why do we age and what to do about it?
   – Hayflick limit
   – Aubrey’s approach – fix all the main damage that occurs as
     we age
      • Many biologist skeptical esp. of unintended consequences of
        things like plan to move mitochondrial DNA into the cell nucleus
   – Antagonistic pleotropy
      • Apparently changes/adaptations occur at many age points in our
        development
      • Unfortunately they stack on top of each other and interfere with
        one another as more of them accumulate
      • Our bodies literally try to run different age adaptations at once
AI Against Aging 3
• Genescent work
  – Has bred flies that live 5.5x longer than usual
  – Selective breeding like this would work in humans
    if you did it for 5,000 – 10,000 years as it takes
    hundreds of generations
  – Long lived flies have a complex large array of
    differences compared to regular flies. Requires
    use of AI to mine the data for nuggets
  – Looking for simple replicable critical factors
Extending Ourselves w/ Technology –
            Steve Mann
• His eyecam is great!
   – Everything he looked at was wirelessly broadcast and
     displayed on the main screens
   – Illustrated many points by drawing on a small paper pad
     which he was looking at. The contents displayed on main
     screen. Very natural and fluid
   – Looks at audience and we see ourselves looking at him
     looking at us
   – He broadcasted and shared with world all his experiences
     when out and and about for many years
   – Has devised and worn wearable computers and
     experienced mediated reality for over 30 years
Extending Ourselves w/ Tech 2
• Surveillance is a clear and present danger
• He originated Sousveillance
   – Sur – from the top
       • Authorities and such watching and controlling the people
   – Sous – from the bottom
       • People watching and controlling the authorities
• Wearable is better than ubiquitous
   – More control over own data if on one’s person and only shared
     as you wish
   – Mediation of reality to remove unwanted stimuli, experience
     and to augment reality

   – Showed wearable chest camera like one MS now sells
Extending Ourselves w/ Tech 3
• Into new forms of interaction with tech and
  environment
  – Hydralophone
     • Musical instrument that uses water through small holes that
       the player closes and runs their fingers over to produce
       complex wind instrument like sounds and chords
     • Playing with these gives great tactile feedback and
       experential shaping the water flow through each opening to
       get different effects
     • They have made these in many forms including large public
       interactive sculptures and self play larger sculptures
     • The model on hand was fun to play with
BCI Past and Future – Brian Litt
• Classification
   – Open or closed loop (1 way or 2 way)
   – Degree of invasiveness
       • Generally the more invasive the finer the detail and control but
         greater the risks
• BCI used today for
   – Epilepsy
   – Depression
   – Obesity
   – Parkinson’s
   – Compensation for loss (hearing, vision, gait, artificial limb
     control)
   – Restore or repair (stroke, spinal cord trauma, peripheral nerve
     injury)
BCI Past and Future 2
• Future BCI
  – Augment : consciousness, memory, speed,
    perception, cognitive processing
     • Already controversial – olympics banned runner with
       artificial lower leg as unfair to other runners
  – Idea storage
  – Transfer/sharing of knowledge, feelings, behavior
  – Replay of experiences
  – Direct brain recording
Machine Learning Rapidly Discovering How Brain
              Works – DemisHassabis

• Nonbio approach to AI
   – Symbolic AI is traditional way
       • Formal logic, logic networks, lambda calculus, expert systems
            – Flaws: brittle, time consuming, poor generalization, increasing cost of new knowledge in
              some designs
• Bio approach to AI
   – Use brain as blueprint
   – If space of all possible designs yields only a few sparsely scattered
     successes then good to start from a successful approach
   – Problems
       • 50 years from mapping entire brain
       • That is not the same as understanding that part that makes for intelligence or
         how it does so
       • A human in a box (all of human brain) is not what we are looking for for AGI
Machine Learning 2
• A Third Way – System Neuroscience Approach
  – Three levels of understanding brain systems (Marr)
     • Computational – goals of the system
         – Cognitive science and symbolic people want to focus here
     • Algorithmic – how does system accomplish goals
         – This area is largely overlooked in the main AGI argument
     • Implementations – what is the physical realization
         – Classic bio brain emulation people want to focus here
  – So how do you find AGI relevant findings in 50,000
    neuroscience papers a year?
     • It takes at least 5 years of dedicated multi-disciplinary training to
       come close to being good at this
Machine Learning 3
• So hybrid approad is to combine best of AGI and Neuroscience
    – Some target areas
        •   Mirror neurons
        •   Model based vs model free systems
        •   Theory of mind
        •   Working memory
        •   Top down intention
• Concepts are key
    – Three levels
        • Symbolic – logic networks, symbolic systems
        • Perceptual – HTM (Hawkins), HMAX (Poggio)
        • Conceptual - ???
              – Theory
                   » HC stores the memories of recent memories or episodes and replays those memories
                      during sleep at sped-up rate. gives high level neocortex samples to learn from memories
                      selected stochastically for replay. rewarded, emotional or salient memories are replayed
                      more; circumvents the statistics of the external environment and leads to abstraction.
Modifying Boundary between Life and
        Death – Lance Becker
• Old notion of >4 minutes without oxygen is too late is
  wrong
   – Can resuscitate after 10, 20, 40 minutes – even an hour
• Lack of oxygen does note kill most cells directly
   – They are fine for some time except build up electrons in
     mitochondria and don’t regulate calcium as well
   – Add oxygen at full normal values and they die
     immediately? Why?
      • The free electrons plus a lot of oxygen forms dangerous radicals
        like crazy
      • This destroys outright and/or triggers cell death response
Modifying Life/Death Boundary 2
• How can this be fixed?
   – Cooling the body to slow down necrotic processes
       • Standard cooling not fast enough. Invented slush machine for very
         quickly (in minutes) bringing body temperature down
   – Controlled slow reperfusion (reoxygentation) as heart is
     restarted
       • Gives system time to normalize
   – Chemical cocktail to aid diffusing dangerous cellular conditions
     as more oxygen is introduced
   – This same process means that donate organs can be kept in
     viable state much more easily and longer potentially solving
     organ donor shortages
   – Kit form being designed for use in ambulances and suitably
     trained paramedics
Universal Measure of Intelligence –
             Shane Legg
• He show an algorithmic method for determining
  relative intelligence of AI systems
• Asks: Is computational intelligence going up as
  Moore’s law goes up?
• How to approach the problem
  – Internal properties of intelligence vs external
    properties
     • We don’t know and can’t say much about internal properties
     • We can say a bit about external properties of intelligent
       solutions
Univ. Measure of Intelligence 2
• What is definition of intelligence?
  – He has collected over 80 distinct definitions
     • “system that generates adaptive behavior for wide
       variety of goals”
     • “ability of system to act appropriately in uncertain
       environment with appropriate being that which
       increases probability of success”
     • Summary: intelligence is the property of an agent that
       interacts with its environment to successfully achieve
       goals across a wide range of environments
Univ Measure of Intelligence 3
• General Formula for Intelligence
  – Sum((2**-K(mu)) * V(pi, mu), All-Environments)
     • K is complexity. As in Occam’s razor we won’t to disvalue
       more complex solutions compared to simpler ones
     • The agent is pi
     • An environment instance is mu
     • V(pi, mu) is success function for the agent in an environment
     • So summing the weighted performance of the agent over all
       environments possible for this agent gives us the measure of
       the agents intelligence
         – Of course in practice we cannot usually enumerate all
           environments
Univ Measure of Intelligence 4
• Evaluating intelligence
  – So use Monte Carlo approximation (random
    sampling of generate environments)
  – Actually running this has successfully classified
    many AI systems correctly
     • May be sensitive to perturbations in the environment
       sample so must do many runs to converge to more
       trustworthy value

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Singularity summit

  • 1. Singularity Summit Selected Highlights
  • 2. Evolution and Post-human Future - Gregory Stock • Where are the wonder drugs? – Takes year for each clinical trial – Approval process broken and much too slow and costly – Approves only fixes to deficits, not enhancements • Will Singularity lead to triumph of human values? – More probably will lead to some form of end of humanity – We are the old hotness – meat, blood, bone – not the future – “Consume my heart away; sick with desire and fastened to a dying animal..” - Yeats
  • 3. Evolution and Post-human future 2 • Evolution moves on – Bio and complex non-bio is something new – Non-bio intelligence is newer still – Likely values among post-humans • High levels of competition • Cheap easy copies making death rather meaningless • Uploading disengages humans from body – But what of Moravec’s point about our minds being very wedded to our evolution even in our metaphors and logic patterns? – These beings will have little in common w/ humans – “There will be a gradual elimination of all forms of beings that we care about” – Bostrom • For humans ready/willing/able to transcend, more of a transformation, I think.
  • 4. Evolution, Post-human Future #3 • Chance of preserving human values through Singularity? – Some super friendly near all powerful singleton AGI may control and ensure it – Thinks it is impossible • “Emergent realm careening toward unknowable future will go its own way regardless of our wishes.”
  • 5. Evolution and Post-Human Future 4 • Signum – his company – Targeting Alzheimers with goal of preserving enough of brain at least to be worth freezing – Noted that Alzheimers is helped by removing phosphate buildups on proteins – Molecule PP2A help this. Coffee activates this molecule – Evidence coffee consumption decreases risk of Alzheimers by 50%! Also adult diabetes. – Caffeine is not the effectine agent. Sig1012 extract from the coffee bean is – Can move to human trials quickly because Sig1012 is an approved food extract
  • 6. The Mind and How To Build One – Kurzweil • Started off razzing critics – Much of this and his talk was from or similar material as @ Citizen Scientist – Much ad lib (talk was teleconference) – Critics include Doug Hofstader, Jaron Lanier and Michael Anissimov (to a much smaller degree) • Given 10**16 calc/sec for brain – Henry Markram (Blue Brain) says this will be achieved in 2018
  • 7. The Mind, How To Build One 2 • Brain has Lisp nature? – “..each cortical module is like a Lisp statement..incredible hierarchy..” – We have good and constantly improving ideas how these modules work – Says he believes a million or so lisp statements could probably model the human brain (?!) • Must have been talking with Minsky
  • 8. AI Against Aging – Ben Goertzel • AI applied to bioinformatics – CEO, Biomind LLC – Work in collaboration with Genescent – Humans poor at understanding complex, high component and relationship count systems – This is where AI comes in: • Searching for patterns and abstractions within large genomic data sets • Scanning relevant literature for patterns and exploitable knowledge
  • 9. AI Against Aging 2 • Why do we age and what to do about it? – Hayflick limit – Aubrey’s approach – fix all the main damage that occurs as we age • Many biologist skeptical esp. of unintended consequences of things like plan to move mitochondrial DNA into the cell nucleus – Antagonistic pleotropy • Apparently changes/adaptations occur at many age points in our development • Unfortunately they stack on top of each other and interfere with one another as more of them accumulate • Our bodies literally try to run different age adaptations at once
  • 10. AI Against Aging 3 • Genescent work – Has bred flies that live 5.5x longer than usual – Selective breeding like this would work in humans if you did it for 5,000 – 10,000 years as it takes hundreds of generations – Long lived flies have a complex large array of differences compared to regular flies. Requires use of AI to mine the data for nuggets – Looking for simple replicable critical factors
  • 11. Extending Ourselves w/ Technology – Steve Mann • His eyecam is great! – Everything he looked at was wirelessly broadcast and displayed on the main screens – Illustrated many points by drawing on a small paper pad which he was looking at. The contents displayed on main screen. Very natural and fluid – Looks at audience and we see ourselves looking at him looking at us – He broadcasted and shared with world all his experiences when out and and about for many years – Has devised and worn wearable computers and experienced mediated reality for over 30 years
  • 12. Extending Ourselves w/ Tech 2 • Surveillance is a clear and present danger • He originated Sousveillance – Sur – from the top • Authorities and such watching and controlling the people – Sous – from the bottom • People watching and controlling the authorities • Wearable is better than ubiquitous – More control over own data if on one’s person and only shared as you wish – Mediation of reality to remove unwanted stimuli, experience and to augment reality – Showed wearable chest camera like one MS now sells
  • 13. Extending Ourselves w/ Tech 3 • Into new forms of interaction with tech and environment – Hydralophone • Musical instrument that uses water through small holes that the player closes and runs their fingers over to produce complex wind instrument like sounds and chords • Playing with these gives great tactile feedback and experential shaping the water flow through each opening to get different effects • They have made these in many forms including large public interactive sculptures and self play larger sculptures • The model on hand was fun to play with
  • 14. BCI Past and Future – Brian Litt • Classification – Open or closed loop (1 way or 2 way) – Degree of invasiveness • Generally the more invasive the finer the detail and control but greater the risks • BCI used today for – Epilepsy – Depression – Obesity – Parkinson’s – Compensation for loss (hearing, vision, gait, artificial limb control) – Restore or repair (stroke, spinal cord trauma, peripheral nerve injury)
  • 15. BCI Past and Future 2 • Future BCI – Augment : consciousness, memory, speed, perception, cognitive processing • Already controversial – olympics banned runner with artificial lower leg as unfair to other runners – Idea storage – Transfer/sharing of knowledge, feelings, behavior – Replay of experiences – Direct brain recording
  • 16. Machine Learning Rapidly Discovering How Brain Works – DemisHassabis • Nonbio approach to AI – Symbolic AI is traditional way • Formal logic, logic networks, lambda calculus, expert systems – Flaws: brittle, time consuming, poor generalization, increasing cost of new knowledge in some designs • Bio approach to AI – Use brain as blueprint – If space of all possible designs yields only a few sparsely scattered successes then good to start from a successful approach – Problems • 50 years from mapping entire brain • That is not the same as understanding that part that makes for intelligence or how it does so • A human in a box (all of human brain) is not what we are looking for for AGI
  • 17. Machine Learning 2 • A Third Way – System Neuroscience Approach – Three levels of understanding brain systems (Marr) • Computational – goals of the system – Cognitive science and symbolic people want to focus here • Algorithmic – how does system accomplish goals – This area is largely overlooked in the main AGI argument • Implementations – what is the physical realization – Classic bio brain emulation people want to focus here – So how do you find AGI relevant findings in 50,000 neuroscience papers a year? • It takes at least 5 years of dedicated multi-disciplinary training to come close to being good at this
  • 18. Machine Learning 3 • So hybrid approad is to combine best of AGI and Neuroscience – Some target areas • Mirror neurons • Model based vs model free systems • Theory of mind • Working memory • Top down intention • Concepts are key – Three levels • Symbolic – logic networks, symbolic systems • Perceptual – HTM (Hawkins), HMAX (Poggio) • Conceptual - ??? – Theory » HC stores the memories of recent memories or episodes and replays those memories during sleep at sped-up rate. gives high level neocortex samples to learn from memories selected stochastically for replay. rewarded, emotional or salient memories are replayed more; circumvents the statistics of the external environment and leads to abstraction.
  • 19. Modifying Boundary between Life and Death – Lance Becker • Old notion of >4 minutes without oxygen is too late is wrong – Can resuscitate after 10, 20, 40 minutes – even an hour • Lack of oxygen does note kill most cells directly – They are fine for some time except build up electrons in mitochondria and don’t regulate calcium as well – Add oxygen at full normal values and they die immediately? Why? • The free electrons plus a lot of oxygen forms dangerous radicals like crazy • This destroys outright and/or triggers cell death response
  • 20. Modifying Life/Death Boundary 2 • How can this be fixed? – Cooling the body to slow down necrotic processes • Standard cooling not fast enough. Invented slush machine for very quickly (in minutes) bringing body temperature down – Controlled slow reperfusion (reoxygentation) as heart is restarted • Gives system time to normalize – Chemical cocktail to aid diffusing dangerous cellular conditions as more oxygen is introduced – This same process means that donate organs can be kept in viable state much more easily and longer potentially solving organ donor shortages – Kit form being designed for use in ambulances and suitably trained paramedics
  • 21. Universal Measure of Intelligence – Shane Legg • He show an algorithmic method for determining relative intelligence of AI systems • Asks: Is computational intelligence going up as Moore’s law goes up? • How to approach the problem – Internal properties of intelligence vs external properties • We don’t know and can’t say much about internal properties • We can say a bit about external properties of intelligent solutions
  • 22. Univ. Measure of Intelligence 2 • What is definition of intelligence? – He has collected over 80 distinct definitions • “system that generates adaptive behavior for wide variety of goals” • “ability of system to act appropriately in uncertain environment with appropriate being that which increases probability of success” • Summary: intelligence is the property of an agent that interacts with its environment to successfully achieve goals across a wide range of environments
  • 23. Univ Measure of Intelligence 3 • General Formula for Intelligence – Sum((2**-K(mu)) * V(pi, mu), All-Environments) • K is complexity. As in Occam’s razor we won’t to disvalue more complex solutions compared to simpler ones • The agent is pi • An environment instance is mu • V(pi, mu) is success function for the agent in an environment • So summing the weighted performance of the agent over all environments possible for this agent gives us the measure of the agents intelligence – Of course in practice we cannot usually enumerate all environments
  • 24. Univ Measure of Intelligence 4 • Evaluating intelligence – So use Monte Carlo approximation (random sampling of generate environments) – Actually running this has successfully classified many AI systems correctly • May be sensitive to perturbations in the environment sample so must do many runs to converge to more trustworthy value

Notas del editor

  1. The Singularity Summit was mind blowing. There were a LOT of very interesting talks – far too many to do justice to today. But here are a few that I was most taken by. Even that subset leaves off some I really enjoyed.