Our changing world: Four trends set to impact how we lead in the future. A presentation by Futurist Adam Jorlen for the Holos Group Real Leadership Program in Melbourne, Australia July 2012.

1. Our changing world:
Four trends set to impact how we lead in
the future.
Adam Jorlen, Futurist,The Holos Group
MMgmt Strategic Foresight, Swinburne University of Technology
Twitter: @adamjorlen
Real Leadership Real Results Program
19 Jul 2012

2. It is often said that with each new era, new forms of
leadership appropriate to the time are needed.
Certainly, our era is one of significant possibility, defined by
accelerating complexity, extreme diversity, and the
opportunity to leverage our global interdependence to co-
create ‘thrivable’ futures.
What are the key threads informing our present and future
realities?

4. #1 Accelerating
Free Agency

5. TREND #1:Accelerating
Free Agency
• “The project economy is coming online with more than 50%
of the workforce to be classified as Free Agent by 2020.”
• “Within 8 years our employers might employ us for only a
week or a month.”
• Micro-mavens: Solo (micro) entrepreneurs who leverage
their personal brand (and networks) to build businesses.
• A shift from an egosystem to an ecosystem?
• Explosion of co-working spaces such as the Hub

6. Fractal People
• Multiple Capacities
• Multiple Roles
• Multiple Spaces of Practice
In 2020 we will have:

7. #2 Radical Openness &
Transparency

8. • As traditional workplace structures collapse and organisational
boundaries dissolve, the demand for cross-organisational
collaboration and Radical Transparency will accelerate.
• Wikipedia and other peer-produced initiatives
• Trust & relationships. Nowhere to hide...
• Open innovation or ‘crowd sourcing’ gives customers greater
input in design and other operations.
• What is the role of the leader?
TREND #2: Radical Openness
& Transparency

9. Social Media
Do you have to be open and transparent?

10. Radical Transparency Remorse
“Somehow, even with documented cases and over exaggerated urban legends,
some people still divulge entirely too much information without thought.”

11. #3 Purpose-Driven
Careers

12. • The global marketplace is accelerating in complexity with coherence
of purpose becoming an attractive with individuals, organisations
and communities seeking leaders who are clear and affirming in
navigating uncertainty.
• The fragmented work/life balance is becoming only balance. People
are looking for a more seamless integration of all elements of life.
• A tenth of the workforce (one million Australians) ask themselves
why they do the work they do.
• People want to work in meaningful occupations and to feel a sense
of satisfaction in what they do.
TREND #3: Purpose-Driven
Careers

13. Our values are....

14. My values
are... My values
are...
My values
are...
My values
are...
My values
are...
Shifting to the total sum of the individuals...

15. The WorldValue Survey Cultural Map
1999-2004 2005-2008
Where is this going?

16. #4 Re-calibrating
business priorities

17. TREND #4: Re-Calibrating
Business Priorities
• With the gap between the haves and have-nots widening,
markets are becoming more socially conscious and demanding
that organisations large and small embrace emerging business
models grounded in For-More-Than-Profit philosophies.
• Impact investing:Assessing not only the financial return on
investment, but also the social and environmental impacts of
the investment.
• Social Entrepreneurship:“It’s a stupid model” (having to choose
to be either for profit or not-for-profit)
• Innovative CSR initiatives in large corporations: BASF, Adidas,
Danone, IBM.

18. For IBM, diversity means valuing and including people from every culture and
religion, and delighting in their difference.

19. IBM is placing employees with diverse skills and backgrounds into emerging
markets to tackle urgent issues in collaboration with NGO experts from
around the world.

20. Common theme in all these trends?
Individual vs Collective

22. Emerging Issues Analysis
What seems to be happening?
Text

23. Emerging Issues Analysis
What seems to be happening?

24. What starts to happen now?THE COOK REPORT ON INTERNET PROTOCOL JUNE 20

25. Cross-Impact Analysis
What seems to be happening?
?

26. Layered Models
What’s really happening?

32. Prospection
What might happen?
For ex. Scenario building
Low
High
High
Low

33. “Most people think the future is a destination or a goal -
somewhere we are headed in time. It is not. It is something we
help to create every time we make a decision about what we will
do next and then act out that decision”
Richard Hames - Futurist

34. What does this mean for Leadership?
As leaders, how do we keep a finger
on the pulse of the future?
Questions