Global societal megatrends shaping our present and future lives.

1. Global societal megatrends
SIX
 www.steria.no

FORCES
Shaping our present and future lives*
*Population growth. New technology. Unlimited choice. Information
explosion. Freedom to connect. Resource depletion. © Steria

2.  The forces shaping our present and future
 Global societal megatrends
 Spanning hundreds of years
 Will affect life in all areas
 For many years to come
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© Photo:

3.  The six forces
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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4.  Understanding our complex world is simple
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© Photo:

5. 
You just have to observe it…
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6.  From a distance…
 Earth
at night
NASA satellite Photo
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© Photo: DMSP and NASA

7.  Over time…
100 years of ups and downs 1000
on the American Stock Exchange
Source: Dow Jones Industrial Average
1000
Trend line
100
10
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8.  And the big waves of change will be obvious
 The Agricultural Revolution (late 17th Century)
 The Industrial Revolution (late 18th Century)
 The Digital Revolution (late 19th Century)
 Coming: The Evolution Revolution (20st Century)
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© Photo:

9. 
Let’s go way, way back in time
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10.  Once upon a time…
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11.  Life was really simple…
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12.  Humans hunted…
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13.  Gathered food…
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14.  Fought disasters and diseases
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15. 
Life continued like that for…
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16. 
200.000 years
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Photo by Tom Heldal

17. 
Then something happened…
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18. 
It was a revolutionary point
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19.  In the history of humankind
Late 17th. century
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20.  Humans began to cultivate food crops
The Agricultural Revolution started
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© Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner

21.  The most basic need could now be satisfied
FOOD
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© Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner

22.  Historians call it the Dawn of Civilization
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© Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner

23. 
Life exploded
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24.  www.steria.no
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Population g
p growth
© Steria
© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

25.  It has been the main force of change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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26.  Population growth
10
From 1 to 6 billion people Year 2040 9
9 billion
in just 200 years
LLIONS OF PEOPLE
8
Year 2009 7
6,8 billion
6
5
4
3
BIL
Year 1804 2
1 billion people
1
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27. 
Explosive growth in people…
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28.  Triggered explosive growth in all areas
Social
Creative
Technical
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© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

29. 
More people meant more ideas…
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30.  More inventions
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31. 
It was the second revolutionary point in time
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32.  The Industrial Revolution
Year
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© Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms

33.  It fuelled rapid economic progress
Go t
Growth in World Domestic Product
o d o est c oduct 30
Source: Angus Maddison ”Monitoring the World Economy (OECD, 1995)
25
20
lion dollars
s
15
Trill
10
5
0
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© Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms

34. 
“ Global economic activity
(GDP) has increased by
a factor of 40 since the start
of the Industrial Revolution.”
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios, 2001
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35.  Dramatic increase in production capacity
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© Photo: Scanpix / NYT / Matthew Holst

36. 
It accelerated technological development
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37.  That brings us to the 2nd. force of change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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38.  www.steria.no

New technology
© Steria
© Photo: AFP / Mario Tama

39.  Agri-technology
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© Photo: Scanpix / Camera Press / NCNA

40.  Robotics-technology
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41.  Energy- and nuclear technology
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© Photo: Masterfile (Dale Sanders)

42.  Bio-technology
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© Photo: PhotoDisc

43.  Nano-technology
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44.  Information-technology
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© Photo: Masterfile / Glen Wexler

45. 
One development has meant more
than anything else…
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46.  The transistor and integrated circuit
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© Photo:

47.  Rate of development that defies the imagination
 The first transistor invented in 1947
could be held in your hand
 Hundreds of the latest* transistors
fit on the surface of a red blood cell
 The price of one of these is
1 millionth the price of a transistor
in 1968
 If car prices had fallen at the same
rate, a new car today would cost
about 1 cent
Morgan Sparks,
the man who
turned the
earliest transistor
into a practical
device
*Penryn f
*P from I t l
Intel
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48. 
Technology makes us more productive
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49. 
We can invent and produce a lot more ”stuff”
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50.  That brings us to the 3rd. force of change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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51.  www.steria.no
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Unlimited choice
© Steria

52.  Unlimited choice
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© Photo: Photo: #11 – Swakopmund
Link: http://www.flickr.com/photos/opeyre/455591380/

53. 
Three examples:
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54.  Unlimited choice of groceries
1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket
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55.  Unlimited choice of groceries
2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section)
The number of products carried by an average US supermarket
has more than tripled since 1980,from 15,000 to 50,000
Source: Food Marketing Institute 2004
S
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56.  Unlimited choice of TV-channels and media
Average number of TV-channels per home in the US
TV channels
1960 2008
6 118
Source: Nielsen Media
Research, 2008 / B i
R h Business
Week, The Vanishing Mass
Market, 2004
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© Photo: Gorilla / Miia Saastamoinen

57.  Unlimited choice of cars
1908 2009
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58. 
Some more evidence…
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59.  Worldwide patent activities
 A doubling of total world
patent filings in 20 years
▬ 1985: ~ 884,000
▬ 2006: ~ 1 76 million
1.76
 Japan, the USA, Korea,
Germany and China
accounted for 76 % of the
total patent filings
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60.  Growth in worldwide patent activities
450,000
Patent filings in leading economies Japan
Source: World Patent Report – A Statistical Review (2008)
gs
Numb of filing
300,000
300 000
USA
ber
China 150,000
Europe
0
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61. 
We are approaching the age of 100 million
products and services to choose from
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62.  Freedom or overload?
The debate goes on...
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© Photo: Photo: #11 – Pecado venial
http://www.flickr.com/photos/paco_calvino/509970213/

63. 
Something else is growing fast…
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64.  www.steria.no
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Information
© Steria
© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile

65.  The 4th. force of change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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66.  www.steria.no
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Information explosion
© Steria
© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile

67.  www.steria.no
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© Steria
© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile

68. 
That brings us to the third
revolutionary point in time
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69.  The Digital Revolution
Size of circles indicate amount
information produced worldwide
Sources: (1) The Diverse and
Exploding Digital Universe,
March 2008, An IDC White
Paper - sponsored by EMC
(2) How Much Information?,
UC Berkeley School of
Information Management and
systems, 2003
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70.  “More information will be created in the
next three years than in the history of time.”
– Berkley School of Information Management, 2002
The
exploding
digital
universe
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© Photo: Masterfile / Rick Fischer

71.  Many feel overloaded
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© Photo: Masterfile 05.05.2010 71 Six forces of change

72.  Historians call it…
the Information Age
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© Photo:

73.  A real change in human ecology
“ All of a sudden almost
sudden,
every aspect of life around the
world is being recorded and
g
stored in some information
format. That's a real change in
our human ecology.” ”
– Peter Lyman, professor emeritus at UC
Berkeley's School of Information
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74. 
The amount of information produced…
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75.  Is directly linked to how connected we are
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© Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire

76. 
Now, let’s look at this
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77.  The 5th. force of change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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78.  www.steria.no
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Freedom to connect
F d t t
© Steria
© Photo:

79.  Across the globe
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© Photo: Maskot Singles

80.  Cross border exchange of goods
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© Photo: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd

81.  Cross border exchange of people
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© Photo: Luth / Photographers Choice

82.  Cross border exchange of culture
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© Photo:

83.  Cross border exchange of capital
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© Photo: Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

84. 
And especially this…
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85.  Cross border exchange of information
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© Photo:

86. 
Today, we can connect with blinding speed
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87.  Easier than ever before
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© Photo:

88.  With the Internet and the Web as the platform
 A map of the global
Internet
▬ 700 million computers
connected in a network
of networks
Source: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internet
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89.  Everyone and everything is inextricably linked
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90.  We have instant worldwide reach
 Withj taf
just few keystrokes
k t k
 And Social Media tools like:
 www.steria.no
© Photo: Photographers Choice05.05.2010 90 Six forces of change

91. 
It means that things spread
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92.  Farther and faster than ever
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© Photo:

93.  The good stuff
Democratization (voting right is key)
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© Photo: PhotoDisc

94.  The good stuff
Democratization
60
Number of nations 1800-2003
scoring 8 or higher on Polity IV scale, 50
a measure of democracy
40
Score
30
20
10
Source: The Polity IV project. 05.05.2010
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Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratization

95.  But also the really bad stuff
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96.  But also the really bad stuff
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97. 
Now, let’s look at this…
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98.  The 6th. driver for change
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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99. 
Natural resources
are being depleted at record rates
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100. 
2xEarths
2xEarths’
By 2050 we will be using
TWICE as many natural
resources as the Earth
can replenish.
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SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis

101. 
In th
I the next 40 years
t
the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems
will increase dramatically
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102. 
200%
World demand for energy is expected to more than DOUBLE.
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SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, 2007 PLACE: Chicago © PHOTO: Scanpix / Folio / Tor Lindberg

103. 
300%
The number of cars in the world is expected to TRIPLE.
p
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SOURCE: 50 by 50: Global Fuel Economy Initiative, 2009: FIA Foundation, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum (ITF) © PHOTO: Pixtal

104. 
400%
The size of the world economy
(GDP) is expected to
QUADRUPLE.
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SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, jan. 2007 PLACE: Ship near harbor in Singapore © PHOTO: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd

105. 
Parts of the world will grow and PROSPER.
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106. 
1,5
1 5 billion
Projected population in China.
China is expected to become the world's LARGEST economy.
world s
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SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: AFP / Liu Jin

107. 
1,6
1 6 billion
Projected p p
j population in India.
India is expected to become the THIRD largest economy in the world.
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SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: Reuters / Stringer / India

108. 
Other parts of the world will be DEVASTATED.
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109. 
Crude
Over the past 50 years,
we have changed ecosystems more extensively
than in any period in human history.
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SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, 2005 PLACE: Oil-sand field in Canada © PHOTO: Scanpix / AFP / David Boily

110. 
90%
of the large fish in the seas have been plundered.
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SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 Six forces of change
© PHOTO: Unknown

111. 
75%
of the natural ecosystems on which we depend
y p
have already been degraded.
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SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy

112. 
50%
of all the forests that once covered the Earth,
,
have been cleared for farmland and urban development.
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SOURCE: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998–99 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy

113. 
25%
of all species is heading
for extinction.
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SOURCE: Wildlife in a changing world, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008 EVENT: Seabird caught in fishnet

114. 
The competition for FOOD, WATER, LAND and
ENERGY will intensify.
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115. 
As we keep CROWDING the Earth.
 www.steria.no
EVENT: Earth at night 05.05.2010 116 Six forces of change
© PHOTO: DMSP and NASA

116.  In ever growing METROPOLISES
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PLACE: Chicago 05.05.2010 117 Six forces of change
© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Robert Llewellyn

117. 
The KEY point is…
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118. 
Unsustainable
The fashion and speed in which we keep exploiting Earth,
is simply unsustainable in the long term
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© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis

119. 
Food-shortages and malnutrition is striking
already hard-hit areas.
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120. 
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EVENT: Food Crisis in Kolkata, West Bengal, India © PHOTO: Scanpix / ZUMA press

121. 
2 billion
people are already affected by water scarcity.
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SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 Six forcesWater crisis in Wangcheng county, central China, July 2007
EVENT: of change © PHOTO: Scanpix / Reuters

122. 
“ Up to 25% of the
world s
world’s food production
may become lost due
to environmental
breakdown by 2050
unless action is taken.”
– UNEP (United Nations Environment
Programme) ,
g ) ,The Environmental
Food Crisis – The Environment's Role
in Averting Future Food Crises, 2009
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123. 
Mass MIRGRATION is inevitable.
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124. 
Migration
Damage from climate change forces people to leave hard-hit rural areas
to seek better conditions in already over-crowded cities.
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PLACE: India © PHOTO: Scanpix

125. 
1 billion
billi
are currently living as slum dwellers
in the developing world’s cities.
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SOURCE: World Bank, World Development Report 2009 "Reshaping Economic Geography PLACE: Lagos in Nigeria © PHOTO: Getty

126. 
200 million
Estimated number of climate refugees by 2050.
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SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, 2009

127. 
So, please dear friend…
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128.  Help to create a sustainable world
And safeguard our future
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129.  We now have an UNIQUE chance.
To be more creative than ever before.
To totally rethink and redesign our lives:
- How we get and use energy.
- Ho we work and li e
How e ork live.
- How we make things.
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© Photo: Scanpix / Reuters

130. 
To sum it all up
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131.  Our lives are undergoing dramatic changes
Population growth New technology Unlimited choice
1 2 3
Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
4 5 6
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132. 
Now, to the big question…
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133. 
What to do
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134.  www.steria.no

Time to
adapt
p
© Steria
© Photo:

135. 
Life and people has dramatically changed
during the last 200 years
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136.  Life is more complex
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© Photo: Goodshoot

137.  Pace of change is faster
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138.  Pace of change will keep on increasing
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© Photo: Brand X

139. 
“ The more complexity
that is created, the easier it
is for more complexity to
emerge. Whether we like it
or not, the pace of change is
not
going to keep increasing.”
– Peter Russel, M.A., D.C.S., F.S.P.
www.peterrussel.com
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140.  Pressure to adapt is stronger than ever
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© Photo: Image Source

141. 
Luckily we have a superior capability…
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142. 
To adapt and evolve
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143. 
That brings us to the fourth revolutionary
point in time
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144.  The evolution revolution
 Leading anthropologists are convinced
that humans are evolving
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© Photo: Masterfile / Scott Tysick

145. 
First, let’s get rid of a misconception…
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146.  Human evolution stopped a long time ago
STOP
 For most of the last century, the received wisdom in
y,
the social sciences has been that human evolution
stopped a long time ago
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147.  Wrong! It never stopped
 Human beings are continuing to evolve as our g
g g genes
respond to rapid changes in the world around us
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148. 
Human evolution didn't
stop when anatomically
modern humans appeared out
of Africa. It never stopped.”
f Af i t d”
– Henry Harpending anthropologists and
Harpending,
author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”
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149. 
“ Our evolution has recently
accelerated by around 100-
fold. A key reason is the
y
enormous growth of the world's
population, which multiplies the
size of the gene pool available
f
to launch new varieties.”
– John Hawks, assistant professor of
anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
”
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150. 
“ The pace of change has
been so rapid that humans
have changed significantly in
body and mind over recorded
history.
history Several hundred at
least, maybe over a thousand
g
genes are currently evolving.”
y g
– Henry Harpending, anthropologists and
author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”
10 000
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151. 
Just look at the generational differences…
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152. Veterans Baby boomers Gen Xers Millennials
born before 1946 born 1946 - 1964 born 1965 - 1980 born after 1980
 Conformity  Experimental  Used be id d
U d to b guided  Technically savvy
 Conservatism  Individualism  Want work/life  Multitasking
 Free spirited balance  Mix fun and work
 Traditional family
 Social cause  Independent  Heightened fears
values
oriented  Informal  Values security
 Loyal
 Question authority  Entrepreneurial and safety
 Frugal
 High change
tolerance
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153. 
What about the future
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© Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire

154. 
“ The only constant I am
y
sure of is this accelerating
pace of change.”
– From the song Downside Up
by Peter Gabriel (1950- ),
b P t G b i l (1950 )
British Rock Musician
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© Photo: Scanpix / Heritage / Jewish Chronical

155. 
“ Our evolutionary
lineage is marked by
mastery of change
change.
In our time, the pace
is quickening.”
q g
– Carl Sagan (1934 –1996)
astronomer,
astronomer astrochemist
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© Photo: Michael Okoniewski

156. 
The adaptive imperative
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157.  It is not the strongest of the species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but the
one most adaptable to change.”
– Charles Darwin,
Origin of the Species, 1859
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158.  Acknowledgements
There are a lot of great presentations, books and articles on Anthropology, Social Psychology and Megatrends available on the
web. A few in particular were noteworthy inspirations for this presentation, including:
 The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution (Hardcover) by Gregory Cochran (Author), Henry
Harpending, Basic Books (January 26, 2009), ISBN-10: 0465002218
Link: http://the10000yearexplosion.com/
 Global Imperatives — The Accelerating Pace of Change: From Strategy to Execution, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Copyright 2008,
ISBN 978-3-540-71879-6 (Print) 978-3-540-71880-2
 Modern life's pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy Newspapers
life s
Link: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/staff/robert_boyd/story/65737.html
 Why megatrends matter, Futureorientation, May 2006, Copenhagen Institue for Future Studies
Link: http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469
 The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years, by Stephen Moore and Julian L. Simon
Link: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa364.pdf
 Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows, Chelsea Green 2004
Update Meadows Meadows Green,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
 The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, Mar. 2008, IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC Link
http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm
 How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003
Link: http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/
 When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S Iyengar Columbia University & Mark R
S. Iyengar, R.
Lepper Stamford university.
http://www.columbia.edu/~ss957/whenchoice.html
 The history of the Integrated Circuit, www.Nobleprize.org
Link: http://nobelprize.org/educational_games/physics/integrated_circuit/history/index.html
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159.  Recommended books
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160.  Created by
Anders Lindgren
marketing director,
Steria AS
www.steria.no
 e mail: al@steria.no
e-mail: al@steria no
 www.linkedin.com: http://www.linkedin.com/in/anderslindgren4u
 www.slideshare.com: anderslindgren4u
 www.twitter.com: A d
t itt AndersLindgren
Li d
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