Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009

Sunshine Coast
Sept 09 Quarterly Report
October 2009

Pacific Tower
737 Burwood Road
Hawthorn
Melbourne 3122

Tel : 61 03 98300612

30-Oct-09 Sept. 09 Quarterly Report - DRAFT No. 1 1

Introduction

Introduction

• The purpose of this report is to provide a relevant, timely and concise report for
the Industry Operators and other Stakeholders.

•

•
•
•
•
•
•


Introduction

Data Sources

• This report uses a number of data sources – dates in brackets refer to the date of
the latest data.

•

•

•

•
•

•

•


Section 1 : External Environment and Tourism Trends

Australia Consumer Confidence - Year to October 09

Source : RMR Confidence Data

• Consumer (and Business) Confidence has turned around very quickly, now the
2nd Great Depression didn’t arrive ! .

• Consumer Confidence is now at the boom level of 2006/07.



Aus. Domestic Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)

Visitors (‘000) - LHS
Market Share (%) - RHS

Source : NVS
• Domestic Overnight travel has suffered with the Global Financial Crisis
(GFC). Since March 08, when the crisis started to hit Australia, the market
has fallen 10%.

• Queensland has not been immune with visitor numbers falling as well.
Market share has recovered after the fall since March 08.



Queensland Overnight Holiday - Source Markets

• Total holiday
travel to
Queensland
down 4.2%.

• Big variance
though from
each Region.

• NSW and
Victoria as
source markets
has been weak.

• Queensland has
held up and this
is a favourable
trend for the
Sunshine Coast.
Source : NVS



Australian Outbound (YE August 09)

• Australians travelling overseas, in
terms of growth, is starting to grow
again, although the growth is
subdued.

• Travel to Indonesia (Bali) is still
growing spectacularly, and travel
to New Zealand is starting to
increase as well.

Source : ABS



Australian Inbound (YE August 09)

• Inbound has been impacted by the
Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

• Even Brits are still visiting less as
their economy suffers.

• The New Zealand market is weak,
although showing a glimmer of
recovery . The US market hardly
Source : ABS
recovered from the Iraq war,
terrorism attacks and SARS, and
is now struggling again under the
weight of the weak economy.



Inbound Overnight - Overall Trends (YE June 09)

Source : IVS
• Total inbound visitors to Queensland has fallen 10% since the start of the
GFC.

• Queensland has also been losing market share. Over the last 10 years there
has been an erosion of market share.


Section 2 : Sunshine Coast Trends

Sunshine Coast Regional Spending

• Sunshine Coast spending has
softened with the slowdown.

• Domestic Overnight spending has
weakened, after strong growth.

• Inbound spending has turned the
corner and is now growing again.

• Day trip spending is also falling.

Source : IVS/NVS



Regional Spending – Share of Queensland

• The Sunshine Coast’s share of
spending is falling, after a strong
result from 2006 to 2008.

• Share of overnight spending has
softened from the peak, while
inbound is improving.

• Share of day trip spending is
lower.

Source : IVS/NVS



Sunshine Coast Inbound (YE June 09)

Source : IVS
• Although inbound visitor numbers to the Coast are softening, the Sunshine
Coast is gaining share of Queensland Inbound visitors.



Sunshine Coast Inbound - Market Share Key Markets

• The top four
source
markets for
the Coast are
reviewed.

• The Sunshine
Coast is
gaining share
of the UK and
German
market.

• Share of the
NZ market
falling.

Source : IVS



Destination Areas - Inbound Visitors

• Inbound to
Mooroochy
and Cooloola
have been
trending up.

• Noosa Inbound
is steady.

• Caloundra
weaker after
strong growth.

Source : IVS



Caloundra - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Caloundra has
a relatively
smaller
unbound
component.

• The New
Zealand
numbers are
down – along
with the
market.

Source : IVS



Maroochy - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Maroochy as
well has been
losing New
Zealand
patronage.

• Other markets
look quite
good.

Source : IVS



Noosa - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Noosa holding
up well in the
UK, Germany
and Other
Europe.

• New Zealand
numbers are
well down.

Source : IVS



Cooloola - Inbound Visitors (number)

• Other than
New Zealand,
international
visitors
numbers is
strong.

Source : IVS



Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight (YE June 09)

Source : NVS
• Overnight visitors to the Sunshine Coast have been softening, share as well
is down since Dec. 05.



Sunshine Coast Domestic Overnight - Market Share Key Markets

• Share of the
Queensland
Domestic
overnight market
is steady,
whereas share
from the NSW /
Vic markets is
softening in the
last quarter.
• Share of SA/WA
shows
improvement.

Source : NVS

Note : Share of Qld
overnight domestic
trips



Destination Areas - Domestic Overnight Visitors

• Caloundra is
softening.

• Maroochy is
also softening.

• Noosa steady
and so to is
Cooloola.

Source : NVS



Caloundra - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Caloundra
numbers are
holding quite
well, although a
little softening
from the
Queensland
market.

Source : NVS



Maroochydore - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Interstate
numbers are
holding up OK.

• Main fall has
been with the
Queenslanders
over the last
year.

Source : NVS



Noosa - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Noosa visitor
numbers from
interstate are
weaker.

• Queensland
holding up
well.

Source : NVS



Cooloola - Domestic Overnight Visitors (‘000)

• Cooloola
visitor
numbers
reasonably
steady over the
last year.

Source : NVS



Sunshine Coast Visitors earning Household Income of $150K +

• In the domestic market,
the Coast has attracted
a higher proportion of
the $150K+ Household
Income market – they
have been driving the
spending growth.

• But over the last six
months, numbers have
started to drop as the
GFC impacted, plus
softening Preference.

Source : NVS



Sunshine Coast Day Trips (YE June 09)

Source : NVS
• More day trippers are coming to the Sunshine Coast , but they are spending
less in total, ie yield per person is falling.

• Sunshine Coast gaining share of Queensland day trippers.



Destination Areas - Day Trip Visitors

• All four
Destinations
areas are
growing day
trips.

Data unavailable

Source : IVS


Section 3 : Consumer Preference

Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)

• The Sunshine Coast Preference is up from the 2007 trough , but share is still
soft.

Source : Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study



Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09) - Key Source Markets

• In terms of key
markets, Preference is
well down in Sydney. Sydney (‘000)
In fact, Preference is
down 34% from the
peak in 2003.
Melbourne (‘000)

• Brisbane Preference
has started to soften.

• Preference from
Melbourne is growing
again.

Brisbane (‘000)




Sunshine Coast Preference (YE June 09)

• Preference for Noosa is
stabilising, Caloundra
as well.

• The Hinterland Caloundra (‘000) Maroochydore/
Preference is growing Mooloolaba (‘000)
while Preference for
Maroochydore/
Moolooaba is softening.

Noosa (‘000) Maleny, Montville,other Gympie, Hervey Bay,
Hinterland (‘000) Maryborough (‘000)



Gold Coast Preference

• The Gold Coast ‘s Preference has steadied – share is trending up over the
last 12-18 months.




Sunshine Coast – Positioning Profile

• This charts the EMDA Consumer Positioning Map TM
alignment of a EMDA Lifestyle Segmentation Sunshine Coast Preferrers
Base :Australia
destination (in this case 70
the Sunshine Coast) Affluent
Families (8%) Affluent Empty
with Lifestyle 60 Nesters (6%)
Segments. 12%
8%
50 Affluent Golden Age
•

Personal Income ($’000)
For example, while Affluent Couples (3%)
Lifestylers (1%)
Affluent Families are Singles (7%) Battler Families
3% (12%) 1%
40
8% of the population, Mid Income Empty
6% Nesters (10%)
they account for 11% of Saving Couples 15% Struggling
SC Preference – that is 30 (2%) 11% Retirees (5%)
this segment has a Spend it All Surviving Families
Singles (10%) 3% 5%
higher propensity to 20 (8%) Surviving Empty
want to holiday on the 9%
8%
Nesters (10%)
Grey Survivors (11%)
Coast. 10 Students (8%) 8%

7%
5%
• Sunshine Coast is 0

more aligned with the 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Average Age (years)
family and more Source : Roy Morgan Single Source June 09 (3 year average)
C EMDA 2003
affluent segments.



Australia – Sunshine Coast Preference / Core Segments

• Preference is falling amongst the core
family segments.

• Amongst the Affluent Empty Nesters,
Preference is still holding up. (‘000)

(‘000) (‘000)



Why did Preference Fall ? (findings from market research)*

• Congestion on the Bruce Highway is a barrier - especially for Brisbane people : -
• “The last time we went there we sat in a queue for 2 hours just to get home. That was it. Its one of
those we went for a wedding and we had to come home on the Sunday and we just sat there and
thought never again.”
• “Sometimes it can hit hard, times where you get literally get caught in the middle of it and you just think
Oh God I’m stuck” “2 night weekends aren’t worth it, but the time you leave work on Friday and cope
with the traffic, its just not worth it”
• “Don’t even talk to me about it! Yes, that is what is really deterring us at the moment, Its just not worth
it going up unless you leave really late, because otherwise you hit the traffic and you just get there and
have to come home again. Its becoming a terrible problem, you can sit in traffic for over an hour just on
the freeway. Its like going down the Gold Coast 10 years ago”
• “Heading north is horrible at the moment. Coming back is equally as bad. We went up to Coolum to
see the in laws last weekend and it took us over 2 hours just sitting in traffic from just this side of
Caloundra through to home. Stop and start, there’s road works and I know it will improve in time, but
we think we cant be bothered fighting the traffic, we think we’ll go the other way.”

• Given that the No. 1 motivation (as identified in the TSC visitor surveys) is relax and
rejuvenate and that this motivation is increasing in importance, clearly traffic
congestion will be a significant turn-off.

* 24 in-depth interviews amongst “lapsed” Preferrers, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne



Why did Preference Fall ?

• A major reason is “we just want to go somewhere different” :-
• “We sort of still like it, but now we’re about to go to NZ so we’re doing something different apart from
somewhere where we would normally go. We’re not disliking the Sunshine Coast but we’re choosing
to go elsewhere.”
• “We’ll go bushwalking in the National Park and choose it over the coast because we’ve done the
coast so many times.”
• “Only because we haven’t been to the Gold Coast as much as we have to the Sunshine Coast.
We’re not disenchanted with the Sunshine Coast. It’s just that there’s so many beautiful places on
the Gold Coast as well”
• “Well we’ve been there, done that. We go there for day trips, so for holidays we’ve never been to the
Great barrier reef before. We leave on Friday to go to the Whitsundays. There’s just so much in
Queensland. Ill still go to the Sunshine Coast if I have a day off, and as a choice Ill choose the
Sunshine Coast over the Gold Coast any day.”

• For some – particularly from Brisbane the area is becoming overdeveloped and
crowded :-
• “Its getting too commercial and too crowded”
• “I mean its still very pretty and nice, but if you’re wanting something nice and relaxing its not
necessarily the place to go. It depends what time of the year as well.”
• “We’d never go at Easter or times like that, we hate crowds”
• “The beach (Noosa) is wall to wall people around you”



• There isn’t so much for the kids to do :-
• “Since we’ve had the kids we go to the Gold Coast, I don’t think there’s much to do there with the kids.
(8+10). Gold Coast there’s always something to do with all the theme parks there it’s a bit more
exciting than the Sunshine Coast.”
• “As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the Sunshine
Coast now, they love the theme parks.”

• Overseas is an attractive option :-
• “We’ll be heading overseas. Aussie dollar at the moment is too good to pass up. I’ve just gotten back
from Vegas, next I wouldn’t mind New York or Europe..”
• “Overseas with the bargains that are around at the moment. Everything overseas is so cheap. Hawaii,
NZ”

• The climate has started to impact :-
• “I think it might be warm, but you do hear about all the wild weather, cyclonic type weather, so I’d be
concerned to go at the right time of the year.”
• “To tell you the truth its been pretty consistent. Ill be honest, we’ve had consistent rain up on the
Sunshine Coast, whereas on the Gold Coast it’s pretty good” “We went up there one January and just
got rain and we won’t be going back”
• “Its been hot in Brisbane so going somewhere cool is appealing, like Tasmania Stanthorpe is very
elevated place so it’s a lot cooler. “ “Ill go at a different time of the year. Its hot now even.”
• “We also want the change from a hot holiday to a cooler one. We want to change to cooler places and
vineyards, we’d like to see Tassy, we haven’t seen Tassy. Its like going to a different climate really,
sitting by the fire romantic in the freezing cold. Something different.”



• It can be expensive :-
• “I thought the restaurants were just too expensive even. Drop the prices a bit more for tourists. They’re
too dear.” “I found the surf clubs restaurants were more expensive than the Gold Coast”
• “But all we had to do was look at shops or eat and eat and it’s really expensive”
• “We went up to Noosa. We never really liked Noosa. We had lunch at the surf club. It’s a boutique
environment its way too expensive.”

• Some had experienced disappointing holidays :-
• “We live on the beaches down here though, it was nice but not too good, and the weather didn’t help
when we went. It was Jan. and rained most of the time we were there! We thought you’d go to the
Sunshine Coast for sunshine, well we got rain! It was very, very disappointing.”
• “They’ve got to have a few more things you can go and have a look at. Like to do when the weather
isn’t good.” “I’m very disappointed with the Sunshine Coast. No 1 they need some places to go and
look at, maybe even a theme park”
• Note : The TSC Visitor survey quantifies that 1.6% of visitors are either very dissatisfied or dissatisfied –
this equates to 48,000 overnight visitors annually.

• See little advertising about the Sunshine Coast, therefore interest isn’t prompted :-
• “there are other places you hear more about. You don’t hear about the Sunshine Coast area”
• “You see the advertisements for the Gold Coast and theme parks, you never see any for the Sunshine
Coast.. I’m not knocking it completely, but you never see much advertising for it.”
• “They don’t advertise anything up there. We’ve just been to Melbourne and Melbourne’s always on the
telly and things like that, or Vic. We had a lovely time down there, lots to do. They advertise Melbourne
Vic, NZ but nothing on the Sunshine Coast. Besides the Australian zoo on the way there.”



What would encourage you to Holiday on the Sunshine Coast ?

• Provide a better understanding of what is available :-
• “Probably if we knew a bit more about what was up there for the kids. To be honest I hardly know
what’s up there to do like I do with the Gold Coast. What would we do on our busy days. Like we
have one day out then one day beachy, so what would we do on our busy day? We always think of it
like that”
• “I constantly see ads for Gold Coast. I’ve never seen any ads for Noosa or anything like that, and
certainly not kid wise.”
• “I don’t know much about the Sunshine Coast If I knew more about it I might consider it.”

• Cater more for kids activities :-
• “It might be nice for me and my husband I think but not so much for the kids. We could relax and laid
back, but the kids would always ask what they can do.”
• “ If you’re comparing the sunshine coast and the Gold Coast, to me the only difference is the theme
parks. As far as the kids are concerned, they’re teenagers now and there’s no attraction on the
Sunshine Coast now, they love the theme parks.”

• Provide an all inclusive holiday :-
• “Somewhere that’s all inclusive for the price. Sunshine Coast is far away and you’re looking at air
fares. “
• “We are looking ay Fiji, with it’s all inclusive fares , that way you know what you are up for”.


Section 4 : Business Performance

Sunshine Coast Accommodation

Source : ABS

• Economic woes, issues raised in the Preference decline report are a drag on
accommodation takings growth on the Sunshine Coast.

• Market share is though better, after the slump of Dec. 09. Other areas even
more impacted (ie Cairns, Gold Coast Conventions market).
Includes establishments with 5 or more rooms.



Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

• Caloundra is
growing strongly.

• Noosa and
Cooloola
recovering.

• Rate of decline
slowing in
Maroochy.
Maroochy NZ’s
market has
declined 19% from
June 2007.

Note : March 09/June 09 data
modelled from ABS destination
area data. The modelling
component represents 5% of the
total recorded turnover
Source : ABS



Destination Areas - Share of Queensland Takings (% p.a)

• Caloundra,
Noosa and
Cooloola are
gaining share.

• Maroochy ‘s
share still
weakening.

Source : ABS



Destination Areas - Takings (% p.a)

• Gold Coast is also
slowing –
Conventions have
been hard hit.

• Byron Bay is was
growing again.

• The
accommodation
sector in Cairns is
really suffering –
with takings down
nearly 8%.

• Whitsundays
suffering as well.

Source : ABS


Section 6: Demand Outlook for the Sunshine Coast

Economic Outlook

F F

Source : ABS / EMDA

• The Global Financial Crisis is impacting on the Australian economy, but the
worst is behind us.

• Both Australian GDP and Private Consumption are expected to recover.



Economic Outlook – Key Source States

• For the core source
States, the outlook is
much better. F

• All are expected to
recover, although
NSW is forecast to
lag behind a little as it Qld
has since 2000.

NSW
VIC

Source : ABS/ EMDA



Sunshine Coast Visitor Forecasts Source : EMDA

F F

Domestic (LHS)

Total Domestic
and International (LHS)
Inbound (RHS)

Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87)
• With some recovery over 2010, the NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC
outlook is better in terms of visitor Outlook, $A exchange Rate
numbers.
Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.91)
• Inbound is still forecast to be more QLD, NSW, Vic Private
impacted than Domestic overnight. Consumption., RMR Preference



Sunshine Coast Accommodation Sector Forecasts

• With better visitor number
forecasts, the
accommodation sector is F
forecast to grow +1.0% by
June 2010.
($’000)

Inbound Drivers (R2 = 0.87)
NZ GDP, UK GDP, TFC
Outlook, $A exchange Rate Source : EMDA

QLD, NSW, Vic Private Note : ABS Base Establishments with 5 or more rooms
Consumption., RMR Preference



Accommodation Forecasts (SC and Destination Area)

• Now, only
Maroochy is F F
expected to be
soft in the year
to June 2010. Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.85) QLD, NSW Private Consumption.
QLD, NSW, Private Consumption., RMR Preference
RMR Preference
• Outlook for
Caloundra,
Noosa and
Cooloola all look
better in 2010.
F

Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.92) Domestic Drivers (R2 = 0.79)
QLD, NSW, Vic Private Consumption., QLD, NSW, Inbound Forecasts
Inbound Forecasts, RMR Preference

Source : EMDA


Section 6: Summary

Summary

• The external environment has become much more positive than it was in late 2008 /
early 2009. Holiday demand from Queenslanders has held up well and this has been
a plus for the Sunshine Coast.

• Total tourism spending on the Coast is softening under the weight of the GFC, but
share of overnight domestic spending is steady and Inbound spending share is
growing again.

• The Sunshine Coast has been growing share of the International market, with the
New Zealand market being the only real problem area.

• On the domestic front, Visitor numbers are lower and so is market share, although
the softening is mainly in the interstate markets. The stable Queensland source
market has benefited the Sunshine Coast.

• Preference for the Sunshine Coast continues to be soft. A number of factors have
been identified that contribute to this including , the Bruce Highway, insufficient
advertising weight in the Sydney and Melbourne, consumers wanting a change,
climate, losing appeal to the kids, consumers looking for more packages and
crowding at peak times.


Section 6: Summary

Summary

• The depth of the loss of Preference for many, means they are unlikely to return. Such
factors as the desire to visit elsewhere “we just want to go somewhere else for a
change, we have been so many times” and strong dissatisfaction with their last
holiday , are unlikely to be reversed. This means in turn, that more effort will need to
made to attract first time Preferrers – ie new people to the Sunshine Coast.

• Accommodation takings are recovering and the Sunshine Coast is regaining some
share and its relative lack of exposure to the International market and business travel
pays dividends.

• The outlook is now better than it was six months ago and the outlook for the
accommodation sector and the Coast also looks better. This assumes that the
factors impacting Preference don’t intensify.


Disclaimer

While every effort has been made to ensure
accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has
not audited the data sources and therefore
does not accept any responsibility in relation
to financial and/or decisions based on this
information.

Ownership of all Intellectual Property
(modelling methods, EMDA Positioning Maps
resides with EMDA).


Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

Destacado

Destacado (6)

Último

Último (20)

Sunshine Coast Tourism Reseach Sept 2009