SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 47
Descargar para leer sin conexión
Swedbank Estonia
Q3 2008
Priit Perens
2
I Overview of the macroeconomic situation
II Overview of the Banking sector in Estonia
III Swedbank Estonia
- Market shares/volumes
- Financial results
- Credit portfolio
3
Estonian economy is rebalancing
4
Estonian macroeconomic environment
• 2006-2007 Estonian rapid GDP growth was based on internal consumption and
inflow of external money
• Now GDP growth is negative (-0,5%, Eurostat)
• Consumer confidence is dropping bringing down internal consumption
• Residential real estate market is illiquid and prices are down around 20 %
• Import is declining (-6% in August yoy), export growth is still strong (+8% in August
yoy)
• Economy is rebalancing, but further development depends on success in building
more competitive export companies.
• Dependence on foreign funding still high – loan deposit ratio ca 189%
• KEY Issues:
– How are our export target countries economies doing?
– Access to liquidity?
5
GDP growth has dropped to negative area
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008p 2011p
6
Belief into the future has vanished
But there is strong effect of international financial crisis
Confidence indexes
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08
industry
consumer
construction
retail
service
7
Low confidence is reflected in the consumption
Annual growth of retail sales
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
retail total cars and related items other goods clothes furnishings etc
During the last months the car sales down average by 38%, incl. new
cars 24%, used cars 47%
8
Without consumption there is no production …
Growth of industrial production
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
industrial production
manufacturing industry production
export sales
internal market sales
9
But rumors about death of core Estonian export are
exaggerated
Annual export growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
-400%
-300%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
electronics passanger cars other goods mineral products (rhs)
10
Labor cost per hour in Euros/ 2006
0 10 20 30 40
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Finland
Sweden
Germany
11
There is no dominant sector in Estonian export
(Jan-Aug 2008, change in the brackets)
groceries (13.8%)
chemical
products (18.3%)
electronics
(+13.2%)
machinery etc
(+7.8%)
vehicles (-0.1%)
others (6.5%)
textiles
(-1.8%) mineral products
(-21.2%)
wood, paper
(-2.7%)
12
CAD, % to GDP
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
05(I) 05(III) 06(I) 06(III) 07(I) 07(III) 08(I)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
goods services income transfers export growth import growth
Rebalancing of economy
13
The components of CAD, % to GDP
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 6M
goods and services FDI reinvested
FDI dividends interests
other private sector return/transfers EU funds
Estonian government payments
14
Real estate market: Estonia
Gradual correction in residential market since April 2007
Market situation
• Lower numbers of transactions, longer sale
periods and decreasing prices in residential real
estate
• Apartment prices down -22% from peak in Apr’07.
Further decrease is likely.
• Difficult to sell apartments in unfinished buildings
• Largest decrease in transactions of land plots due
to higher construction costs and higher risk to
complete the construction without a profit
Market outlook
• Several developers have liquidity problems and
stock of unsold apartments is increasing. It is
likely that prices on new apartments will continue
to decrease
• Risk of tenants reducing their office areas. Start-
up office projects and office buildings with weak
concepts and poor quality will be most affected
• The quality of tenant mix, rental agreements,
location, popularity of retail centers will be crucial 10
12
14
16
18
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EUR/m2/month
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Vacancyrate
Rent rate Vacancy rate
Tallinn apartment price and transaction development
Tallinn office rent and vacancy development
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08
EUR/m2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Nooftransactions
No of deals (rhs) Average price (lhs)
Source:
* Residential data – Estonia land board
** Office data – credit analysts data
15
Banking market
16
Estonian Banking Sector: Financing* and
Deposits
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
03/03 09/03 03/04 09/04 03/05 09/05 03/06 09/06 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08
mioEUR
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
190%
Financing - Corporate Financing - Private Deposits - Corporate
Deposits -Private Loan/deposits (rhs)
*Financing – loan, leasing, factoring
17
Estonian Banking Sector: Credit quality
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
09-
97
09-
98
09-
99
09-
00
09-
01
09-
02
09-
03
09-
04
09-
05
09-
06
09-
07
09-
08
Overdue >60 days Provisions
18
Bank debt to GDP
• Note: Outstanding bank debt only.
Leasing/factoring excluded; other
forms of corporate financing
excluded. Financial institutions
excluded. Public sector under
corporate.
Outstanding bank debt to GDP - Estonia
13% 13% 15%
20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18%
20%
24%
32%
43%
47%
2% 2% 3%
6% 5% 7% 7% 8%
11%
14%
19%
28%
38%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Corporate Private
Outstanding bank debt to GDP (2007)
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
19
Swedbank Estonia
20
Highlights
• Long-term focus maintained on core strategic strengths - performance culture,
credit skills, wide distribution and strong team
• Short-term focus on managing the business through the economic cycle with
particular focus on productivity and asset quality
• Steps taken in the beginning of 2007 have slowed down credit growth and the
trend is expected to continue throughout 2008. As a result, minor deterioration in
market shares has been visible and is also expected going forward. However, no
major change is expected.
• Employee productivity is being monitored closely and employee growth will be
negative during 2008 given slowdown in volume growth. Operational efficiency
program is gradually rolled out in all countries.
• Credit teams have been strengthened and work-out processes are being reviewed
to a more pro-active stance. Asset quality indicators (credit losses, overdues) have
risen according to expectations
21
Loans and Deposits
Deposits (group consolidated) *
90
117
-115
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08
EURm
Loans (incl leasing&factoring)
change *
229
255
118
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
EURm
Loan (incl leasing&factoring)
change 9m 2008
602
1,411
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
BB Est Market
EURm
Deposits' change 9m 2008
(bank solo)
155
408
-50
200
450
700
BB Est Market
EURm
Loan (inl leasing and factoring) to deposits
100%
150%
200%
250%
12/06 03/07 06/07 09/07 12/07 03/08 06/08 09/08
Rest of the Market Swedbank Estonia
* According to Management reporting (consolidated). Trade Finance portfolio was taken into Estonian books from
January (loan +111 m EUR; deposits +71 m EUR) This change was eliminated from 1Q 2008 change
22
Market Shares
Dec 06 Dec 07 Jun 08 Sept 08
Mortgage 49.2% 48.9% 48.7% 48.6%
Consumer finance 59.0% 55.0% 55.3% 55.3%
Corporate financing 46.0% 43.4% 43.1% 42.9%
Car leasing 56.1% 53.6% 52.7% 52.2%
Deposits 53.2% 53.0% 54.4% 52.4%
P2S 52.3% 52.4% 52.6% 53.0%
Funds 53.9% 57.6% 56.4% 54.9%
Domestic payments 65.4% 65.0% 65.0% 64.9%
POS 61.2% 62.3% 65.9% 68.0%
23
Quarterly trend - Estonia
Net profit
57 60 62
47 52 49 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
mlnEUR
Cost - Income ratio
36.1% 37.6%
34.4%
42.5%
37.9% 39.9%
36.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
Return on Equity
41% 41% 39%
28%
33% 32% 32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
Credit losses
3 2
8
10
7
11
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08
mlnEUR
24
Performance against mid-term financial
targets
*Net loan losses = (changes in general and special provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the
year
<0.35%0.55%0.76%Net loan losses
168.9%
38%
32%
-14%
YTD 2008
<42%
>20%
>20%
BBTarget
168.9%Loan to deposit ratio
36%Cost-income
32%ROE on actual equity
-15%EBT growth, YoY
Q3 2008Estonia
25
Financial highlights - Estonia
36.0%38.0%34.4%36.3%Cost-income
2.75%2.57%2.74%2.76%Net interest margin
-7%2,7292,528Employees (FTE)
12%4,3604,883Deposits (mln EUR)
14%
-15%
88%
5%
-1%
YoY %
32%
153
32
113
298
2008
YTD
7,2178,246Loans (mln EUR)
39%39%32%Return on Equity
-14%1786252Net profit (mln EUR)
13
107
298
2007
YTD
147%
6%
0%
YTD %
8
36
105
Q3 07
14Net Loan Losses (mln EUR)
38Expenses (mln EUR)
104Revenues (mln EUR)
Q3 08
26
Contribution to net income change ‘08 vs ‘07
YTD
Net Fees & Commissions
67.8
75.4
2.9 -0.5 -0.5
-4.5
-5.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
07 YTD Card Loans Cash Securities Other Sept 08
EURm
By main P&L items
153.2
178.1
-19.2
-25.9
22.0
-4.4-1.73.2
-7.5
8.7
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
NI 07 NII
Net Fees
Trading inc
Inc fr Ins
Other inc
Pers exp
Other Exp
NLL
NI 08
EURm
Trading Income
1.6
27.4
-0.3
-9.4
-1.8
-11.6
-1.2-1.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
07 YTD Markets
Eq
Asset
Man Eq
Life Ins
Eq
P&C Ins
Eq
Treasury
FI
FX & cl
margins
08 YTD
EURm
27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Reveue 2007 Revenue 2008
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Net interest income
Other income
Net fees and commissions
-10.0%
Revenue
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
+12.1%
-94.3% YoY
+0.2% YoY
+53.8%
Trading
0
20
40
60
80
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
+120.1%
Income from insurance
120.1%7.215.95.4%0.35.35.6Income from insurance
0.2%297.9298.35.2%5.199.4104.5Total revenues
53.8%5.99.12.3%0.13.23.3Other income
-94.3%27.41.6-125.3%-5.04.0-1.0Trading income
-10.0%75.467.8-0.9%-0.222.522.3Net fee income
12.1%182.0204.015.5%10.064.374.3Net interest income
YoY%
YTD
2007
YTD
2008QoQ%Delta2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
28
Operating expenses
0
10
20
30
40
50
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Total OpEx 2007 Total OpEx 2008
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
10
20
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Personnel IT Admin
Marketing Other Group
+3.7% YoY
+8.0% YoY
+27.8% YoY
-9.4% YoY +24.0% YoY -34.1% YoY
+5.7% YoY
-115
-261
-1.7
-0.5
0.0
-0.7
-0.2
1.1
-0.4
-1.0
Delta
-7.4%2 7292 528-9.4%2 7892 528Employees (FTE)
-7.8%2 7202 506-4.4%2 6212 506Employees (FTE) excl pr
5.7%107.2113.4-4.3%39.637.9Operating expenses
-34.1%10.16.7-16.2%3.02.5Group adjustments
5.8%2.32.5-1.4%0.80.8Depreciation
31.1%6.17.9-22.7%3.22.5Other expenses
-9.4%4.54.1-11.1%1.51.3Marketing
27.8%16.621.215.7%7.08.1Administration
8.0%21.022.7-5.6%8.07.5IT expenses
3.7%46.548.3-6.0%16.215.2Personnel
YoY%YTD 2007
YTD
2008QoQ%2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
29
Portfolio disclosure
30
Private portfolio risk profile
0
750
1,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
EURm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
SME/SSE risk profile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
A A- B B- C C- D D- E E- F
EURm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0
500
1,000
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
EURm
Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Estonia risk exposure (9 053 mEUR)*, Q3 2008
SME/SSE
16%
mortgage
79%
revolving
3%
Large
corporate
42%
leasing
8%
Private
43%
consumer
10%
* Risk exposure: on-balance + off-balance portfolio
PD<1%
Non-
performing
Non-
performing
Credit quality of the loan book
Risk profile remains balanced
• Well diversified portfolio dominated by retail
exposures
• Macro developments have triggered some
downgrades in all segments:
– Real estate sector drives downgrades in large
corporate segment (exposure > 0.8 mio EUR).
Downgrades counterweighted by new lending
to low risk clients
– SME/SSE has been the most sensitive to
downturn. Acceptable risk profile (55% of
portfolio with PD<1)
– Private portfolio has low risk profile (78% with
PD<1%)
Non-
performing
PD<1%
PD<1%
31
Credit quality
Swedbank Estonia overdue performance considerably better than
the rest of the market
Overdue over 60 days / current portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
Dec.05
Mar.06
Jun.06
Sep.06
Dec.06
Mar.07
Jun.07
Sep.07
Dec.07
Mar.08
Apr.08
May.08
Jun.08
Jul.08
Aug.08
Sep.08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank)
Provisions / current portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
Dec.05
Mar.06
Jun.06
Sep.06
Dec.06
Mar.07
Jun.07
Sep.07
Dec.07
Mar.08
Jun.08
Sep.08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank)
32
Corporate >60 day overdues
Corporates (rating cust)
1.89%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
SSE
2.38%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
All Corporates
1.99%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
SME
2.08%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
33
Large corporate portfolio
Credit losses relatively isolated in the real estate sector
Estonia Rating 6&7 exposures by industries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Commercial real
estate
Production
Retailing
Transportation
Other EURm
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
• Downgrades in large corporate (exposure >
EUR 0.8m) portfolio has been
counterbalanced with lending to customers
with low risk
• The main part of 6&7 ratings comes from
real estate sector (in particular residential
real estate development & early
development)
34
Lending by sectors
Portfolio, (9053 EURm) Sept 2008
Other
22%
Individuals
44%
Transport
5%
Retail &
Wholesale
5%
Real-estate
mgmt
15%
Construction
3%
Industry
6%
35
Real estate portfolio
Most sensitive part of portfolio to current changes in macro
environment. Developments according to expectation.
• The residential real estate development is the most
sensitive sector in Baltic Banking portfolio.
Sensitivity’ has started to appear in overdue and
default figures of corporate portfolio.
• Around 60% from total Real Estate
portfolio are cash flow generating
properties with good tenant mix.
• Properties under development process
(25% of RE portfolio) are currently affected the
most by decreasing prices and liquidity in the
market.
• Additional defaults in residential real estate
development sector are anticipated in 2008, but no
major surprises are expected due to previously
implemented portfolio limitations and individual
level monitoring. Restructuring capacity has been
put in place.
Real Estate
23%
6%
25%
25%
15%
6%
Office
Production &
Warehouse
Residential
Retail
Land plots
Other
36
Other sectors under close watch
Transportation
Trucking companies are facing problems due to increasing fuel prices and lagging freight rates. This
global problem has started to reflect in Baltic Banking provisions (especially in SME segments) since the
beginning of the year.
Retail & wholesale
Well performing sector with low levels of overdues, but potentially vulnerable to decreasing consumption
Wood processing
Raw material price increase coupled with sales price downwards pressure have a negative impact on
Baltic wood processing industry. Current portfolio quality is around average with only few problem cases
observed. Additional problems may occur after export duties will be imposed on Russian round wood as
there is dependence on imported round wood in Estonia.
* Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio
37
13%
8%
79%Private >60 day overdues
Mortgage
0.43%
0.88%
0.32%
0.12%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
Consumer finance
1.01%
1.60%
2.44%
1.81%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
Car leasing
0.63%
0.87%
1.35%
0.99%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
Total private
0.28% 0.48%
1.04%
0.58%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
12-
06
03-
07
06-
07
09-
07
12-
07
03-
08
06-
08
09-
08
mortgage
consumer
leasing
38
Mortgage delinquency rates*
Percentage of outstanding amount of loans
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Swedbank
Estonia
USA
UK
Spain
Australia
Canada
France
Finland
Portfolio quality better than in more stable
developed markets
*Mortgages >90 days in overdues / portfolio
Note: Loans refer to mortgages for all countries except Finland and Italy where they include all loans to the households sector.
For Italy, they refer to new bad debts during the year as a percentage of outstanding loans.
39
Mortgage portfolio
Mortgage risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Portfolio, Dec-07 Portfolio, Sept-08
0
50
100
150
200
250
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Growth Portfolio (right hand scale)
Portfolio
• Employers in difficulties – lower workload, loss of work, problems with salary (drop or delay in payment): mainly in
companies connected to real estate, construction, transport, industrial goods, furniture and wood industry
• Change of employment
Main reasons for payment difficulty
40
Mortgage LTV (indexed market values)
Portfolio average LTV below 60%
• Apartment / private house price drop in EE (- 22% from peak)
has reduced positive effect from portfolio ‘maturing’
• Higher LTV portfolio issued for safe ‘home loan’ segment
• No difference observed in overdue / default levels for ‘high’
and ‘low’ LTV segments.
Estonia
64%
68%63%
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EURm
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
21yAverage maturity
59%LTV, total portfolio - August '08
*Should be treated as conservative evaluation (do not
account for guarantees and other non-residential RE
collaterals)
EE
Indexed LTV values and
maturity for private apartments
/ houses*
Mortgage LTV and portfolio by year of origination
Mortgage portfolio - LTV
0%
10%
20%
0-
10%
10-
20
20-
30
30-
40
40-
50
50-
60
60-
70
70-
80
80-
90
90-
100
>100
Back book, Sept 08
41
Summary
• Growth of Estonian economy has stopped
• Resulting fast rebalancing of the economy.
• Still high dependence on foreign funding (but not directly from the
international markets)
• Swedbank Estonia is showing relatively strong results, yoy income declined
by 14% caused by increasing loan losses and losses from equities trading.
• Efficiency still high
• The Bank’s main activity is managing credit portfolio and improving
efficiency
• Credit portfolio quality is deteriorating. Residential real estate development
under growing stress. No spillover to other sectors.
Thank you!
43
Portfolio quality
Credit losses driven by real estate defaults
• Credit losses mostly driven by worsening macro situation
• Real estate (in particular residential real estate development projects) is the main driver of credit losses
• Trend is in line with updated credit loss forecast level
Estonia
0.55%31.6Total
0.06%0.1- Other
0.34%0.6- Car leasing
1.79%3.0- Consumer products
1.30%1.0- Revolving
0.13%2.7- Mortgage
0.27%7.5Private individuals
0.67%6.4SME/SSE companies (exposure <0.8m EUR)
0.32%2.1- Other
-0.16%-0.4- Transportation
0.45%0.8- Retailing
0.43%1.0- Production
1.76%14.3- Commercial real estate
0.84%17.8Rated companies (exposure >0.8m EUR)
RatioEURmNet loan losses, YTD 9m 2008
44
Key financials
Estonia
29 bp57 bp50 bp58 bp76 bpNet loan losses
2.57%
38.0%
32.2%
83
153
153
113
298
YTD
2008
2.75%
36.0%
40.0%
131
178
178
107
298
YTD
2007
-7%
-37%
-15%
-15%
5%
-1%
12%
14%
Q3
% ∆YoY
-261
2
3
3
-2
5
-115
118
Q3
∆ QoQ
2,789
2.41%
39.9%
31.5%
26
49
49
40
99
4,998
8,128
Q2
2008
-36%
-14%
-14%
6%
0%
YTD
% ∆ YoY
4428EVA on allocated equity
2,7292,528Employees (FTE)2
105104Revenues
3638Expenses
2.74%
34.4%
38.5%
62
62
4,360
7,217
Q3
2007
52EBT
8,246Loans
4,883Deposits
2.76%Net interest margin
36.3%Cost-income
32.2%Return on equity1
52Net income
Q3
2008
in millions of EUR
1 ROE is calculated based on Swedbank capital allocation: 8.4% for the Baltics
2 without Group and IT
45
Provisioning principles
• Credit portfolio losses are recognised through special and portfolio provisions
• Main guidelines for estimating provisions:
• Key regulations for provision estimation are: provisioning principles and provisioning rates
• Supplementary regulations are: LGD methodology and rating methodology
• Current provisions constitute 1.05% of credit portfolio (111 EURm portfolio provisions and 106 EURm
special provisions)
• General and special provision rates are back-tested once per year. Historically provisions have always
covered loan losses with a reserve
product specific LGDOverdue >90 daysFixed rate based on product typeRetail
fixed LGD (based on asset type for
leasing)
Overdue >90 daysFixed rate for all portfolioSME
Individual assessment based on
Net present value (based on
discounted value of revalued
collateral and cash flow)
Rating 6 - 7
default frequency (based on rating) *
LGD (based on credit analyst estimate)
Large corporate
Special provisioning for
impaired assets
Impairment trigger
Portfolio provisions
(for performing portfolio)
Portfolio segment
LGD – loss given default
46
Regular process of outstanding loan review
• Portfolio quality improvement measures introduced already in 2007
– Increased risk margin in certain sectors (eg real-estate)
– Portfolio limitation and close individual level monitoring for higher risk segments
– Stricter product conditions (LTV, service ratio, previous credit history). Ongoing review
and adjustments Improved credit assessment process through better credit decision
support applications (scoring/rating tools)
• Share of real estate sector decreasing, existing portfolio regularly scrutinized
• Strengthened risk units
– Increased number of people dealing with problem loans
– Strengthened workout team
– Increasing cooperation with Swedabnk FR&R team
– Improved the quality and increased frequency of portfolio quality reporting
• Targets for new origination quality
• Regular loan review process includes
– Overall portfolio stress test once a year
– Extensive portfolio analysis 2x per year, monthly/quarterly portfolio reviews + ad hoq
individual portfolio deep-dive analysis
– Monthly "watch list” report
– IRB portfolio scoring 1x per month
• On the individual loan basis:
– Client rating review minimum 1x per year + review subject to material events
– Rating classes 5 and higher are subject to more frequent assessment
– Quarterly financials/covenants assessment
– For SME/SSE and private portfolio weekly overdue report (with client names identified)
47
Credit quality management process
• Proactive management of watch list clients
– Private clients - communication on step-by-step actions to take before falling into
overdues. Development of standard remedial action to ensure serviceability of the credit
(assistance in family budget planning, restructuring of payments, postponement of
payments for temporary income loss; assistance in voluntary sale of assets)
– Corporate clients - proactive communication, frequent client meetings and positive
attitude to find solutions
• Overdue management - concentrates on time horizon from occurrence of distress situation
(either through late payment or on the bases of client information) to moving credit over to
restructuring or workout phase. The primary focuses in overdue management is:
– Process design for fast and prudent management of overdues, clear process ownership
– Constant re-evaluation of the tactics on their effectiveness and adequacy
– Clearly set timing and channel of client contacts
– Build capacity to work with distressed clients and adequate training of employees
– Centralized decision making
– Internal target setting and incentives to reach targets
– Up to time reporting and follow up on taken activities
• Distressed debt restructuring
– Defined tactics of restructuring. Solutions to ensure client serviceability of the debt
(based on industry of the client, collateral structure)
– Extended capacity to work with distressed clients
– Effective solutions for collected collaterals handling

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Before the Open April 20 2017
Before the Open April 20 2017Before the Open April 20 2017
Before the Open April 20 2017John Pendrith
 
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021TIM SA
 
National Accounts 2015 Q2
National Accounts 2015 Q2National Accounts 2015 Q2
National Accounts 2015 Q2s.coffey
 
Roadshow Netherlands
Roadshow NetherlandsRoadshow Netherlands
Roadshow NetherlandsSwedbank
 
080218 London Mikael Inglander
080218 London Mikael Inglander080218 London Mikael Inglander
080218 London Mikael InglanderSwedbank
 
Financial Stability Review 2/2014
Financial Stability Review 2/2014Financial Stability Review 2/2014
Financial Stability Review 2/2014Eesti Pank
 
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015vinh nguyen
 
Roadshow, Abu Dhabi
Roadshow, Abu DhabiRoadshow, Abu Dhabi
Roadshow, Abu DhabiSwedbank
 
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materials
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materialsVietnam construction, infrastructure and building materials
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materialsAlex Pham, PhD
 
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015vinh nguyen
 
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentation
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentationUnited-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentation
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentationOECD, Economics Department
 
Before the open march 6 2017
Before the open march 6 2017Before the open march 6 2017
Before the open march 6 2017John Pendrith
 
Brexit Explainer Series
Brexit Explainer SeriesBrexit Explainer Series
Brexit Explainer SeriesState Street
 
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012Swedbank
 
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015Epic Research Singapore
 
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015LinkingHouse Real Estate
 
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016 SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016 Teresa Noone
 
Before the Open June 13 2017
Before the Open June 13 2017Before the Open June 13 2017
Before the Open June 13 2017John Pendrith
 
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
 
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?Vaibhav Dhabaria
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Before the Open April 20 2017
Before the Open April 20 2017Before the Open April 20 2017
Before the Open April 20 2017
 
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021
Summary of results for 3rd quarter 2021
 
National Accounts 2015 Q2
National Accounts 2015 Q2National Accounts 2015 Q2
National Accounts 2015 Q2
 
Roadshow Netherlands
Roadshow NetherlandsRoadshow Netherlands
Roadshow Netherlands
 
080218 London Mikael Inglander
080218 London Mikael Inglander080218 London Mikael Inglander
080218 London Mikael Inglander
 
Financial Stability Review 2/2014
Financial Stability Review 2/2014Financial Stability Review 2/2014
Financial Stability Review 2/2014
 
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015
FPTS-constructionindustryreport-05.2015
 
Roadshow, Abu Dhabi
Roadshow, Abu DhabiRoadshow, Abu Dhabi
Roadshow, Abu Dhabi
 
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materials
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materialsVietnam construction, infrastructure and building materials
Vietnam construction, infrastructure and building materials
 
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015
CTI-BUY-InitialValuationReport-29.06.2015
 
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentation
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentationUnited-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentation
United-kingdom-unleashing-productivity-oecd-main-findings-presentation
 
Before the open march 6 2017
Before the open march 6 2017Before the open march 6 2017
Before the open march 6 2017
 
Brexit Explainer Series
Brexit Explainer SeriesBrexit Explainer Series
Brexit Explainer Series
 
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012
Swedbank Analysis No.5 - June 8, 2012
 
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015
EPIC RESEARCH SINGAPORE - Daily SGX Singapore report of 16 February 2015
 
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy area Local Market Report 1st Q-2015
 
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016 SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q4 2016
 
Before the Open June 13 2017
Before the Open June 13 2017Before the Open June 13 2017
Before the Open June 13 2017
 
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
 
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?
After BREXIT, is it time for REGREXIT now?
 

Destacado

Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael Inglander
Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael InglanderCapital Market Days 2008 - Mikael Inglander
Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael InglanderSwedbank
 
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 results
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 resultsCEO presentation of Q1 2009 results
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 resultsSwedbank
 
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010Swedbank
 
CEO presentation Q3 analyst call
CEO presentation Q3 analyst callCEO presentation Q3 analyst call
CEO presentation Q3 analyst callSwedbank
 
The Estonian Economy, 2010 June
The Estonian Economy, 2010 JuneThe Estonian Economy, 2010 June
The Estonian Economy, 2010 JuneSwedbank
 
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael Inglander
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael InglanderRoadshow, Paris, Mikael Inglander
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael InglanderSwedbank
 
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011Swedbank
 
The Estonian Economy, 2010 May
The Estonian Economy, 2010 MayThe Estonian Economy, 2010 May
The Estonian Economy, 2010 MaySwedbank
 

Destacado (8)

Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael Inglander
Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael InglanderCapital Market Days 2008 - Mikael Inglander
Capital Market Days 2008 - Mikael Inglander
 
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 results
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 resultsCEO presentation of Q1 2009 results
CEO presentation of Q1 2009 results
 
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010
SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May 2010
 
CEO presentation Q3 analyst call
CEO presentation Q3 analyst callCEO presentation Q3 analyst call
CEO presentation Q3 analyst call
 
The Estonian Economy, 2010 June
The Estonian Economy, 2010 JuneThe Estonian Economy, 2010 June
The Estonian Economy, 2010 June
 
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael Inglander
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael InglanderRoadshow, Paris, Mikael Inglander
Roadshow, Paris, Mikael Inglander
 
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011
Swedbank Analysis - June 14, 2011
 
The Estonian Economy, 2010 May
The Estonian Economy, 2010 MayThe Estonian Economy, 2010 May
The Estonian Economy, 2010 May
 

Similar a Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Priit Perens

Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris Avotins
Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris AvotinsRoadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris Avotins
Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris AvotinsSwedbank
 
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFO
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFORoadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFO
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFOSwedbank
 
Roadshow, Erkki Raasuke
Roadshow, Erkki RaasukeRoadshow, Erkki Raasuke
Roadshow, Erkki RaasukeSwedbank
 
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Eesti Pank
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 results
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 resultsCEO presentation of Q2 2008 results
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 resultsSwedbank
 
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06Swedbank
 
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 Results
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 ResultsKlöckner & Co - Q3 2008 Results
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 ResultsKlöckner & Co SE
 
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services Conference
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services ConferenceRoadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services Conference
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services ConferenceSwedbank
 
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: Presentation
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: PresentationMetso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: Presentation
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: PresentationMetso Group
 
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014Eesti Pank
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeMatthew Bentley
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeMatthew Bentley
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_trademattbentley34
 
Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén
	Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén	Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén
Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan LidénSwedbank
 
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentation
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentationMetso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentation
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentationMetso Group
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - PresentationElectrolux Group
 
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFORoadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFOSwedbank
 
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011Klöckner & Co SE
 
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes Rudbeck
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes RudbeckRoadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes Rudbeck
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes RudbeckSwedbank
 

Similar a Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Priit Perens (20)

Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris Avotins
Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris AvotinsRoadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris Avotins
Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Maris Avotins
 
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFO
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFORoadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFO
Roadshow, London, Jan Liden, CEO and Mikael Inglander, CFO
 
Roadshow, Erkki Raasuke
Roadshow, Erkki RaasukeRoadshow, Erkki Raasuke
Roadshow, Erkki Raasuke
 
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2013 Presentation
 
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 results
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 resultsCEO presentation of Q2 2008 results
CEO presentation of Q2 2008 results
 
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06
Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06
 
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 Results
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 ResultsKlöckner & Co - Q3 2008 Results
Klöckner & Co - Q3 2008 Results
 
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services Conference
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services ConferenceRoadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services Conference
Roadshow, Lehman Brothers Global Financial Services Conference
 
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: Presentation
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: PresentationMetso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: Presentation
Metso's Interim Review January 1 - June 30, 2014: Presentation
 
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014
Madis Müller. Finance Estonia Forum 2014
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_trade
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_trade
 
Balance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_tradeBalance of payments_trade
Balance of payments_trade
 
Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén
	Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén	Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén
Roadshow, UBS Nordic Banking Conference Jan Lidén
 
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentation
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentationMetso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentation
Metso Financial Statements Review 2014: presentation
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2013 - Presentation
 
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFORoadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
 
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation January 2011
 
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes Rudbeck
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes RudbeckRoadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes Rudbeck
Roadshow, Frankfurt, Johannes Rudbeck
 

Más de Swedbank

Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank
 
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017Swedbank
 
Delårsrapport kv1 2017
Delårsrapport kv1 2017Delårsrapport kv1 2017
Delårsrapport kv1 2017Swedbank
 
Interim report q1 2017
Interim report q1 2017Interim report q1 2017
Interim report q1 2017Swedbank
 
Year end report 2016
Year end report 2016Year end report 2016
Year end report 2016Swedbank
 
Bokslutskommuniké 2016
Bokslutskommuniké 2016Bokslutskommuniké 2016
Bokslutskommuniké 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017Swedbank
 
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017Swedbank
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016Swedbank
 
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.Swedbank
 
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015Swedbank
 
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015Swedbank
 
Year end report 2015
Year end report 2015Year end report 2015
Year end report 2015Swedbank
 
Bokslutskommuniké 2015
Bokslutskommuniké 2015Bokslutskommuniké 2015
Bokslutskommuniké 2015Swedbank
 
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015Swedbank
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015Swedbank
 

Más de Swedbank (20)

Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017
 
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017
Swedbank foretagspresentation 25 april 2017
 
Delårsrapport kv1 2017
Delårsrapport kv1 2017Delårsrapport kv1 2017
Delårsrapport kv1 2017
 
Interim report q1 2017
Interim report q1 2017Interim report q1 2017
Interim report q1 2017
 
Year end report 2016
Year end report 2016Year end report 2016
Year end report 2016
 
Bokslutskommuniké 2016
Bokslutskommuniké 2016Bokslutskommuniké 2016
Bokslutskommuniké 2016
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017
Swedbank företagspresentation, 2 februari 2017
 
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 25 oktober 2016
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016
 
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016
Swedbank företagspresentation, 30 juni 2016
 
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016
Swedbank corporate presentation Q1, 2016
 
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 1, 2016.
 
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015
Swedbank corporate presentation Q4, 2015
 
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015
Swedbank företagspresentation kvartal 4,2015
 
Year end report 2015
Year end report 2015Year end report 2015
Year end report 2015
 
Bokslutskommuniké 2015
Bokslutskommuniké 2015Bokslutskommuniké 2015
Bokslutskommuniké 2015
 
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015
Swedbank Företagspresentation, September 2015
 
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015
 

Último

The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh KumarThe Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh KumarHarsh Kumar
 
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance CompanyInterimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance CompanyTyöeläkeyhtiö Elo
 
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri Fasal bima yojna
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri  Fasal bima yojnaPMFBY , Pradhan Mantri  Fasal bima yojna
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri Fasal bima yojnaDharmendra Kumar
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办fqiuho152
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdfStock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdfMichael Silva
 
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...Henry Tapper
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economiccinemoviesu
 
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdfLundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdfAdnet Communications
 
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial Accounting
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial AccountingCh 4 investment Intermediate financial Accounting
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial AccountingAbdi118682
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentfactical
 
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfgovernment_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfshaunmashale756
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintSuomen Pankki
 
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
 
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptx
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptxCurrent Economic situation of Pakistan .pptx
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptxuzma244191
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technologyz xss
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证rjrjkk
 
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
 
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...Amil baba
 

Último (20)

The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh KumarThe Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
 
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance CompanyInterimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
 
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri Fasal bima yojna
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri  Fasal bima yojnaPMFBY , Pradhan Mantri  Fasal bima yojna
PMFBY , Pradhan Mantri Fasal bima yojna
 
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdfStock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck FOR 4/17 video.pdf
 
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
 
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdfLundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
 
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial Accounting
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial AccountingCh 4 investment Intermediate financial Accounting
Ch 4 investment Intermediate financial Accounting
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
 
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfgovernment_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
 
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...
NO1 Certified Ilam kala Jadu Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialk...
 
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptx
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptxCurrent Economic situation of Pakistan .pptx
Current Economic situation of Pakistan .pptx
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
 
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...
NO1 WorldWide online istikhara for love marriage vashikaran specialist love p...
 
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
NO1 WorldWide Genuine vashikaran specialist Vashikaran baba near Lahore Vashi...
 

Roadshow, Öhman Baltic Banking Day, Priit Perens

  • 2. 2 I Overview of the macroeconomic situation II Overview of the Banking sector in Estonia III Swedbank Estonia - Market shares/volumes - Financial results - Credit portfolio
  • 3. 3 Estonian economy is rebalancing
  • 4. 4 Estonian macroeconomic environment • 2006-2007 Estonian rapid GDP growth was based on internal consumption and inflow of external money • Now GDP growth is negative (-0,5%, Eurostat) • Consumer confidence is dropping bringing down internal consumption • Residential real estate market is illiquid and prices are down around 20 % • Import is declining (-6% in August yoy), export growth is still strong (+8% in August yoy) • Economy is rebalancing, but further development depends on success in building more competitive export companies. • Dependence on foreign funding still high – loan deposit ratio ca 189% • KEY Issues: – How are our export target countries economies doing? – Access to liquidity?
  • 5. 5 GDP growth has dropped to negative area -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008p 2011p
  • 6. 6 Belief into the future has vanished But there is strong effect of international financial crisis Confidence indexes -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 industry consumer construction retail service
  • 7. 7 Low confidence is reflected in the consumption Annual growth of retail sales -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 retail total cars and related items other goods clothes furnishings etc During the last months the car sales down average by 38%, incl. new cars 24%, used cars 47%
  • 8. 8 Without consumption there is no production … Growth of industrial production -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 industrial production manufacturing industry production export sales internal market sales
  • 9. 9 But rumors about death of core Estonian export are exaggerated Annual export growth -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% electronics passanger cars other goods mineral products (rhs)
  • 10. 10 Labor cost per hour in Euros/ 2006 0 10 20 30 40 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Finland Sweden Germany
  • 11. 11 There is no dominant sector in Estonian export (Jan-Aug 2008, change in the brackets) groceries (13.8%) chemical products (18.3%) electronics (+13.2%) machinery etc (+7.8%) vehicles (-0.1%) others (6.5%) textiles (-1.8%) mineral products (-21.2%) wood, paper (-2.7%)
  • 12. 12 CAD, % to GDP -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 05(I) 05(III) 06(I) 06(III) 07(I) 07(III) 08(I) -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% goods services income transfers export growth import growth Rebalancing of economy
  • 13. 13 The components of CAD, % to GDP -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2007 2008 6M goods and services FDI reinvested FDI dividends interests other private sector return/transfers EU funds Estonian government payments
  • 14. 14 Real estate market: Estonia Gradual correction in residential market since April 2007 Market situation • Lower numbers of transactions, longer sale periods and decreasing prices in residential real estate • Apartment prices down -22% from peak in Apr’07. Further decrease is likely. • Difficult to sell apartments in unfinished buildings • Largest decrease in transactions of land plots due to higher construction costs and higher risk to complete the construction without a profit Market outlook • Several developers have liquidity problems and stock of unsold apartments is increasing. It is likely that prices on new apartments will continue to decrease • Risk of tenants reducing their office areas. Start- up office projects and office buildings with weak concepts and poor quality will be most affected • The quality of tenant mix, rental agreements, location, popularity of retail centers will be crucial 10 12 14 16 18 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 EUR/m2/month 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Vacancyrate Rent rate Vacancy rate Tallinn apartment price and transaction development Tallinn office rent and vacancy development 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 EUR/m2 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Nooftransactions No of deals (rhs) Average price (lhs) Source: * Residential data – Estonia land board ** Office data – credit analysts data
  • 16. 16 Estonian Banking Sector: Financing* and Deposits 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 03/03 09/03 03/04 09/04 03/05 09/05 03/06 09/06 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 mioEUR 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% 170% 190% Financing - Corporate Financing - Private Deposits - Corporate Deposits -Private Loan/deposits (rhs) *Financing – loan, leasing, factoring
  • 17. 17 Estonian Banking Sector: Credit quality 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 09- 97 09- 98 09- 99 09- 00 09- 01 09- 02 09- 03 09- 04 09- 05 09- 06 09- 07 09- 08 Overdue >60 days Provisions
  • 18. 18 Bank debt to GDP • Note: Outstanding bank debt only. Leasing/factoring excluded; other forms of corporate financing excluded. Financial institutions excluded. Public sector under corporate. Outstanding bank debt to GDP - Estonia 13% 13% 15% 20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 20% 24% 32% 43% 47% 2% 2% 3% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 11% 14% 19% 28% 38% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Corporate Private Outstanding bank debt to GDP (2007) 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Estonia Latvia Lithuania CzechRepublic Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Poland Portugal Spain Ireland Denmark Finland Sweden
  • 20. 20 Highlights • Long-term focus maintained on core strategic strengths - performance culture, credit skills, wide distribution and strong team • Short-term focus on managing the business through the economic cycle with particular focus on productivity and asset quality • Steps taken in the beginning of 2007 have slowed down credit growth and the trend is expected to continue throughout 2008. As a result, minor deterioration in market shares has been visible and is also expected going forward. However, no major change is expected. • Employee productivity is being monitored closely and employee growth will be negative during 2008 given slowdown in volume growth. Operational efficiency program is gradually rolled out in all countries. • Credit teams have been strengthened and work-out processes are being reviewed to a more pro-active stance. Asset quality indicators (credit losses, overdues) have risen according to expectations
  • 21. 21 Loans and Deposits Deposits (group consolidated) * 90 117 -115 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 EURm Loans (incl leasing&factoring) change * 229 255 118 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 EURm Loan (incl leasing&factoring) change 9m 2008 602 1,411 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 BB Est Market EURm Deposits' change 9m 2008 (bank solo) 155 408 -50 200 450 700 BB Est Market EURm Loan (inl leasing and factoring) to deposits 100% 150% 200% 250% 12/06 03/07 06/07 09/07 12/07 03/08 06/08 09/08 Rest of the Market Swedbank Estonia * According to Management reporting (consolidated). Trade Finance portfolio was taken into Estonian books from January (loan +111 m EUR; deposits +71 m EUR) This change was eliminated from 1Q 2008 change
  • 22. 22 Market Shares Dec 06 Dec 07 Jun 08 Sept 08 Mortgage 49.2% 48.9% 48.7% 48.6% Consumer finance 59.0% 55.0% 55.3% 55.3% Corporate financing 46.0% 43.4% 43.1% 42.9% Car leasing 56.1% 53.6% 52.7% 52.2% Deposits 53.2% 53.0% 54.4% 52.4% P2S 52.3% 52.4% 52.6% 53.0% Funds 53.9% 57.6% 56.4% 54.9% Domestic payments 65.4% 65.0% 65.0% 64.9% POS 61.2% 62.3% 65.9% 68.0%
  • 23. 23 Quarterly trend - Estonia Net profit 57 60 62 47 52 49 52 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 mlnEUR Cost - Income ratio 36.1% 37.6% 34.4% 42.5% 37.9% 39.9% 36.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Return on Equity 41% 41% 39% 28% 33% 32% 32% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Credit losses 3 2 8 10 7 11 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 mlnEUR
  • 24. 24 Performance against mid-term financial targets *Net loan losses = (changes in general and special provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the year <0.35%0.55%0.76%Net loan losses 168.9% 38% 32% -14% YTD 2008 <42% >20% >20% BBTarget 168.9%Loan to deposit ratio 36%Cost-income 32%ROE on actual equity -15%EBT growth, YoY Q3 2008Estonia
  • 25. 25 Financial highlights - Estonia 36.0%38.0%34.4%36.3%Cost-income 2.75%2.57%2.74%2.76%Net interest margin -7%2,7292,528Employees (FTE) 12%4,3604,883Deposits (mln EUR) 14% -15% 88% 5% -1% YoY % 32% 153 32 113 298 2008 YTD 7,2178,246Loans (mln EUR) 39%39%32%Return on Equity -14%1786252Net profit (mln EUR) 13 107 298 2007 YTD 147% 6% 0% YTD % 8 36 105 Q3 07 14Net Loan Losses (mln EUR) 38Expenses (mln EUR) 104Revenues (mln EUR) Q3 08
  • 26. 26 Contribution to net income change ‘08 vs ‘07 YTD Net Fees & Commissions 67.8 75.4 2.9 -0.5 -0.5 -4.5 -5.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 07 YTD Card Loans Cash Securities Other Sept 08 EURm By main P&L items 153.2 178.1 -19.2 -25.9 22.0 -4.4-1.73.2 -7.5 8.7 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 NI 07 NII Net Fees Trading inc Inc fr Ins Other inc Pers exp Other Exp NLL NI 08 EURm Trading Income 1.6 27.4 -0.3 -9.4 -1.8 -11.6 -1.2-1.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 07 YTD Markets Eq Asset Man Eq Life Ins Eq P&C Ins Eq Treasury FI FX & cl margins 08 YTD EURm
  • 27. 27 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Reveue 2007 Revenue 2008 0 20 40 60 80 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Net interest income Other income Net fees and commissions -10.0% Revenue -20 0 20 40 60 80 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 20 40 60 80 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 20 40 60 80 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 +12.1% -94.3% YoY +0.2% YoY +53.8% Trading 0 20 40 60 80 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 +120.1% Income from insurance 120.1%7.215.95.4%0.35.35.6Income from insurance 0.2%297.9298.35.2%5.199.4104.5Total revenues 53.8%5.99.12.3%0.13.23.3Other income -94.3%27.41.6-125.3%-5.04.0-1.0Trading income -10.0%75.467.8-0.9%-0.222.522.3Net fee income 12.1%182.0204.015.5%10.064.374.3Net interest income YoY% YTD 2007 YTD 2008QoQ%Delta2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
  • 28. 28 Operating expenses 0 10 20 30 40 50 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Total OpEx 2007 Total OpEx 2008 0 10 20 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 10 20 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 10 20 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 10 20 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 20 40 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 0 10 20 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 Personnel IT Admin Marketing Other Group +3.7% YoY +8.0% YoY +27.8% YoY -9.4% YoY +24.0% YoY -34.1% YoY +5.7% YoY -115 -261 -1.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 1.1 -0.4 -1.0 Delta -7.4%2 7292 528-9.4%2 7892 528Employees (FTE) -7.8%2 7202 506-4.4%2 6212 506Employees (FTE) excl pr 5.7%107.2113.4-4.3%39.637.9Operating expenses -34.1%10.16.7-16.2%3.02.5Group adjustments 5.8%2.32.5-1.4%0.80.8Depreciation 31.1%6.17.9-22.7%3.22.5Other expenses -9.4%4.54.1-11.1%1.51.3Marketing 27.8%16.621.215.7%7.08.1Administration 8.0%21.022.7-5.6%8.07.5IT expenses 3.7%46.548.3-6.0%16.215.2Personnel YoY%YTD 2007 YTD 2008QoQ%2Q 20083Q 2008EUR in millions
  • 30. 30 Private portfolio risk profile 0 750 1,500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 EURm Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 SME/SSE risk profile 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 A A- B B- C C- D D- E E- F EURm Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Large corporate risk profile 0 500 1,000 1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7 EURm Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Estonia risk exposure (9 053 mEUR)*, Q3 2008 SME/SSE 16% mortgage 79% revolving 3% Large corporate 42% leasing 8% Private 43% consumer 10% * Risk exposure: on-balance + off-balance portfolio PD<1% Non- performing Non- performing Credit quality of the loan book Risk profile remains balanced • Well diversified portfolio dominated by retail exposures • Macro developments have triggered some downgrades in all segments: – Real estate sector drives downgrades in large corporate segment (exposure > 0.8 mio EUR). Downgrades counterweighted by new lending to low risk clients – SME/SSE has been the most sensitive to downturn. Acceptable risk profile (55% of portfolio with PD<1) – Private portfolio has low risk profile (78% with PD<1%) Non- performing PD<1% PD<1%
  • 31. 31 Credit quality Swedbank Estonia overdue performance considerably better than the rest of the market Overdue over 60 days / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% Dec.05 Mar.06 Jun.06 Sep.06 Dec.06 Mar.07 Jun.07 Sep.07 Dec.07 Mar.08 Apr.08 May.08 Jun.08 Jul.08 Aug.08 Sep.08 Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank) Provisions / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% Dec.05 Mar.06 Jun.06 Sep.06 Dec.06 Mar.07 Jun.07 Sep.07 Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sep.08 Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (Bank)
  • 32. 32 Corporate >60 day overdues Corporates (rating cust) 1.89% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 SSE 2.38% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 All Corporates 1.99% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 SME 2.08% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08
  • 33. 33 Large corporate portfolio Credit losses relatively isolated in the real estate sector Estonia Rating 6&7 exposures by industries 0 20 40 60 80 100 Commercial real estate Production Retailing Transportation Other EURm Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Large corporate risk profile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 • Downgrades in large corporate (exposure > EUR 0.8m) portfolio has been counterbalanced with lending to customers with low risk • The main part of 6&7 ratings comes from real estate sector (in particular residential real estate development & early development)
  • 34. 34 Lending by sectors Portfolio, (9053 EURm) Sept 2008 Other 22% Individuals 44% Transport 5% Retail & Wholesale 5% Real-estate mgmt 15% Construction 3% Industry 6%
  • 35. 35 Real estate portfolio Most sensitive part of portfolio to current changes in macro environment. Developments according to expectation. • The residential real estate development is the most sensitive sector in Baltic Banking portfolio. Sensitivity’ has started to appear in overdue and default figures of corporate portfolio. • Around 60% from total Real Estate portfolio are cash flow generating properties with good tenant mix. • Properties under development process (25% of RE portfolio) are currently affected the most by decreasing prices and liquidity in the market. • Additional defaults in residential real estate development sector are anticipated in 2008, but no major surprises are expected due to previously implemented portfolio limitations and individual level monitoring. Restructuring capacity has been put in place. Real Estate 23% 6% 25% 25% 15% 6% Office Production & Warehouse Residential Retail Land plots Other
  • 36. 36 Other sectors under close watch Transportation Trucking companies are facing problems due to increasing fuel prices and lagging freight rates. This global problem has started to reflect in Baltic Banking provisions (especially in SME segments) since the beginning of the year. Retail & wholesale Well performing sector with low levels of overdues, but potentially vulnerable to decreasing consumption Wood processing Raw material price increase coupled with sales price downwards pressure have a negative impact on Baltic wood processing industry. Current portfolio quality is around average with only few problem cases observed. Additional problems may occur after export duties will be imposed on Russian round wood as there is dependence on imported round wood in Estonia. * Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio
  • 37. 37 13% 8% 79%Private >60 day overdues Mortgage 0.43% 0.88% 0.32% 0.12% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 Consumer finance 1.01% 1.60% 2.44% 1.81% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 Car leasing 0.63% 0.87% 1.35% 0.99% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 Total private 0.28% 0.48% 1.04% 0.58% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 12- 06 03- 07 06- 07 09- 07 12- 07 03- 08 06- 08 09- 08 mortgage consumer leasing
  • 38. 38 Mortgage delinquency rates* Percentage of outstanding amount of loans 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Swedbank Estonia USA UK Spain Australia Canada France Finland Portfolio quality better than in more stable developed markets *Mortgages >90 days in overdues / portfolio Note: Loans refer to mortgages for all countries except Finland and Italy where they include all loans to the households sector. For Italy, they refer to new bad debts during the year as a percentage of outstanding loans.
  • 39. 39 Mortgage portfolio Mortgage risk profile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Portfolio, Dec-07 Portfolio, Sept-08 0 50 100 150 200 250 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Growth Portfolio (right hand scale) Portfolio • Employers in difficulties – lower workload, loss of work, problems with salary (drop or delay in payment): mainly in companies connected to real estate, construction, transport, industrial goods, furniture and wood industry • Change of employment Main reasons for payment difficulty
  • 40. 40 Mortgage LTV (indexed market values) Portfolio average LTV below 60% • Apartment / private house price drop in EE (- 22% from peak) has reduced positive effect from portfolio ‘maturing’ • Higher LTV portfolio issued for safe ‘home loan’ segment • No difference observed in overdue / default levels for ‘high’ and ‘low’ LTV segments. Estonia 64% 68%63% 0 250 500 750 1000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EURm -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 21yAverage maturity 59%LTV, total portfolio - August '08 *Should be treated as conservative evaluation (do not account for guarantees and other non-residential RE collaterals) EE Indexed LTV values and maturity for private apartments / houses* Mortgage LTV and portfolio by year of origination Mortgage portfolio - LTV 0% 10% 20% 0- 10% 10- 20 20- 30 30- 40 40- 50 50- 60 60- 70 70- 80 80- 90 90- 100 >100 Back book, Sept 08
  • 41. 41 Summary • Growth of Estonian economy has stopped • Resulting fast rebalancing of the economy. • Still high dependence on foreign funding (but not directly from the international markets) • Swedbank Estonia is showing relatively strong results, yoy income declined by 14% caused by increasing loan losses and losses from equities trading. • Efficiency still high • The Bank’s main activity is managing credit portfolio and improving efficiency • Credit portfolio quality is deteriorating. Residential real estate development under growing stress. No spillover to other sectors.
  • 43. 43 Portfolio quality Credit losses driven by real estate defaults • Credit losses mostly driven by worsening macro situation • Real estate (in particular residential real estate development projects) is the main driver of credit losses • Trend is in line with updated credit loss forecast level Estonia 0.55%31.6Total 0.06%0.1- Other 0.34%0.6- Car leasing 1.79%3.0- Consumer products 1.30%1.0- Revolving 0.13%2.7- Mortgage 0.27%7.5Private individuals 0.67%6.4SME/SSE companies (exposure <0.8m EUR) 0.32%2.1- Other -0.16%-0.4- Transportation 0.45%0.8- Retailing 0.43%1.0- Production 1.76%14.3- Commercial real estate 0.84%17.8Rated companies (exposure >0.8m EUR) RatioEURmNet loan losses, YTD 9m 2008
  • 44. 44 Key financials Estonia 29 bp57 bp50 bp58 bp76 bpNet loan losses 2.57% 38.0% 32.2% 83 153 153 113 298 YTD 2008 2.75% 36.0% 40.0% 131 178 178 107 298 YTD 2007 -7% -37% -15% -15% 5% -1% 12% 14% Q3 % ∆YoY -261 2 3 3 -2 5 -115 118 Q3 ∆ QoQ 2,789 2.41% 39.9% 31.5% 26 49 49 40 99 4,998 8,128 Q2 2008 -36% -14% -14% 6% 0% YTD % ∆ YoY 4428EVA on allocated equity 2,7292,528Employees (FTE)2 105104Revenues 3638Expenses 2.74% 34.4% 38.5% 62 62 4,360 7,217 Q3 2007 52EBT 8,246Loans 4,883Deposits 2.76%Net interest margin 36.3%Cost-income 32.2%Return on equity1 52Net income Q3 2008 in millions of EUR 1 ROE is calculated based on Swedbank capital allocation: 8.4% for the Baltics 2 without Group and IT
  • 45. 45 Provisioning principles • Credit portfolio losses are recognised through special and portfolio provisions • Main guidelines for estimating provisions: • Key regulations for provision estimation are: provisioning principles and provisioning rates • Supplementary regulations are: LGD methodology and rating methodology • Current provisions constitute 1.05% of credit portfolio (111 EURm portfolio provisions and 106 EURm special provisions) • General and special provision rates are back-tested once per year. Historically provisions have always covered loan losses with a reserve product specific LGDOverdue >90 daysFixed rate based on product typeRetail fixed LGD (based on asset type for leasing) Overdue >90 daysFixed rate for all portfolioSME Individual assessment based on Net present value (based on discounted value of revalued collateral and cash flow) Rating 6 - 7 default frequency (based on rating) * LGD (based on credit analyst estimate) Large corporate Special provisioning for impaired assets Impairment trigger Portfolio provisions (for performing portfolio) Portfolio segment LGD – loss given default
  • 46. 46 Regular process of outstanding loan review • Portfolio quality improvement measures introduced already in 2007 – Increased risk margin in certain sectors (eg real-estate) – Portfolio limitation and close individual level monitoring for higher risk segments – Stricter product conditions (LTV, service ratio, previous credit history). Ongoing review and adjustments Improved credit assessment process through better credit decision support applications (scoring/rating tools) • Share of real estate sector decreasing, existing portfolio regularly scrutinized • Strengthened risk units – Increased number of people dealing with problem loans – Strengthened workout team – Increasing cooperation with Swedabnk FR&R team – Improved the quality and increased frequency of portfolio quality reporting • Targets for new origination quality • Regular loan review process includes – Overall portfolio stress test once a year – Extensive portfolio analysis 2x per year, monthly/quarterly portfolio reviews + ad hoq individual portfolio deep-dive analysis – Monthly "watch list” report – IRB portfolio scoring 1x per month • On the individual loan basis: – Client rating review minimum 1x per year + review subject to material events – Rating classes 5 and higher are subject to more frequent assessment – Quarterly financials/covenants assessment – For SME/SSE and private portfolio weekly overdue report (with client names identified)
  • 47. 47 Credit quality management process • Proactive management of watch list clients – Private clients - communication on step-by-step actions to take before falling into overdues. Development of standard remedial action to ensure serviceability of the credit (assistance in family budget planning, restructuring of payments, postponement of payments for temporary income loss; assistance in voluntary sale of assets) – Corporate clients - proactive communication, frequent client meetings and positive attitude to find solutions • Overdue management - concentrates on time horizon from occurrence of distress situation (either through late payment or on the bases of client information) to moving credit over to restructuring or workout phase. The primary focuses in overdue management is: – Process design for fast and prudent management of overdues, clear process ownership – Constant re-evaluation of the tactics on their effectiveness and adequacy – Clearly set timing and channel of client contacts – Build capacity to work with distressed clients and adequate training of employees – Centralized decision making – Internal target setting and incentives to reach targets – Up to time reporting and follow up on taken activities • Distressed debt restructuring – Defined tactics of restructuring. Solutions to ensure client serviceability of the debt (based on industry of the client, collateral structure) – Extended capacity to work with distressed clients – Effective solutions for collected collaterals handling