Swedbank Economic Outlook January 2012: When the going gets tough, the tough get going

1. Swedbank Economic Outlook
Swedbank Analyses the Swedish and Baltic Economies January 24, 2012
When the going gets tough, the tough get going
Global development
Table of Content:  The global recovery is losing steam with the euro zone in a recession and the
US only slowly gaining speed. Global growth – estimated at 3.6% last year –
was driven by emerging markets. We have revised the growth rate to 3.1% in
Introduction: Weak growth – 2012 and 2013, from October’s 3.6% and 3.7%.
negative risks weigh heavily 2  Global growth relies on the euro zone’s policy response. Our main scenario
(55% probability), foresees small steps of progress but high short-term mar-
Global: Rough patch – but ket volatility. A worsening (40% probability) nearly stalls global growth. A euro
collapse has a small probability of 5% but with much larger negative growth
no meltdown 4 effects.
Sweden
Sweden: Challenging times  After strong growth for most of 2011, macroeconomic indicators now suggest
ahead 12 that the Swedish economy is slowing significantly. Exports are receding, indus-
trial production is stagnating, and labour market improvements are slowing.
Estonia: Shifting from high  Growth is revised downwards to 0.6% for 2012 and 1.8% for 2013 as the deep-
ening euro zone crisis will continue to negatively affect the Swedish economy.
to lower gear 17 Worsening sentiments of both households and companies will strain consump-
tion and dampen investments. We expect unemployment to start to rise in 2012,
Latvia: Holding up better before slowly falling back in 2013, as economic growth picks up moderately.
this time 21 Estonia
 Estonian economic growth was very strong in 2011, supported by better-than-
expected export growth, albeit the pickup in domestic demand was solid as
Lithuania: Growth in spite well. Strong foreign demand boosted investments and job creation. Rising em-
of fiscal consolidation 25 ployment (8% up to third quarter) and wages supported private consumption.
 Despite a worse global outlook, Estonia is estimated to grow by 2.7% in 2012
and 4.0% in 2013, fostered by domestic demand – investments are supported
by growing public sector and environment-related investments; private con-
sumption by the improving labour market situation and easing inflation.
Latvia
 In 2011, economic growth was stronger than expected, boosted by export-
ing sectors and their investments, as well as by household consumption. We
estimate that GDP growth exceeded 5%. The IMF/EC-supported bailout pro-
gramme was successfully completed in December.
 We are lowering the 2012 growth forecast to 2.0%, as slower growth for the
main trading partners will cut into Latvian exports, while weaker confidence will
dampen consumption and investments. We anticipate growth to pick up again
in 2013, reaching 3.2%. Euro adoption in 2014 is still our main scenario.
Lithuania
 Consumption and investments continued fuelling GDP growth last year, when
the economy expanded by an estimated 6.3%. Unemployment declined by al-
most 3 percentage points, but real wage growth was still negative. Annual infla-
tion peaked in May and was 3.4% at the end of 2011.
 Growth will decrease in 2012 and 2013, but the economy is not expected to
be in recession. The economy will continue to be driven by domestic demand,
especially investments. This year, inflation is expected to decelerate to 2.5%
and the budget deficit will contract from more than 5% of GDP in 2011 to 3%
in 2012. Uncertainty has increased, but euro adoption in 2014 is still possible.
January 24, 2012 1

2. Introduction Swedbank Economic Outlook
Weak growth – negative risks weigh heavily
The economic recovery in Sweden and slower speed. Sweden faces a couple advanced economies would have been
the Baltic countries was strong up to of quarters of negative growth, thus in used up. The Baltic economies would
the third quarter last year, and labour technical terms falling into recession, also shrink, but their recessions would
markets improved accordingly. Due to but would be able to sustain growth for be much milder than the ones experi-
weaker global developments, especial- the whole year of 2012, and even more enced in 2008-2009, since imbalances
ly in the euro zone, all four economies so in 2013. The Baltic countries stag- have been reduced and reforms have
have now shifted to a lower gear. We nate in the short term, but will see posi- been implemented to strengthen com-
expect GDP growth to dampen during tive annual growth both in 2012 and petitiveness.
the first half of 2012 and pick up only 2013. The probability of this scenario is
In our main scenario, global growth falls
mildly thereafter. Hence, in Sweden relatively low (55%), thus pointing to a
to 3.1% in 2012 and 2013, from 5.1%
and the Baltic countries we still foresee great uncertainty about an outlook that
in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011. GDP growth
slight positive growth on an annual ba- is mainly dependent on policymakers’
in the US economy has been revised
sis, although the risks weigh heavily on reform ambitions and commitment to
upwards to a moderate 2.0% in 2012
the downside. save the euro zone.
but downwards in 2013 to 2.2%, since
It is the global outlook that mainly cre- If our main euro zone scenario is rather deleveraging continues. The euro zone
ates the uncertainty in our forecast. We downbeat, our alternative scenarios are economy shrinks by 0.3% this year, and
see three scenarios for the euro zone even more negative. The most likely of growth will be only marginally positive in
crisis, which then set the stage for our them – with a probability as high as 40% 2013. Hence, there will be two years of
global scenarios. Our main scenario – is a continually worsening situation lost economic development for the euro
foresees a volatile spring but is more with falling confidence and rising risk zone. The UK will also grow at a near-
optimistic on the possibilities of confi- premiums, making government and stagnation rate, struggling with fiscal
dence improving near autumn, when bank funding more difficult. The global consolidation and – on a political note
the new support mechanism, the Eu- economy’s growth would then come – relations with the euro zone. Japan is
ropean Stability Mechanism (ESM), is close to recession, and growth in recovering from last year’s tsunami, but
in place and banks are better capital- Sweden and the Baltic countries would not at the speed first envisaged. Slower
ised. During the spring, policymakers be more negative and stay so longer, global growth and a strong yen are rais-
are expected to take decisions that will postponing the recovery until towards ing the hurdles.
strengthen institutions, and this scenar- the end of the forecast period at best.
China’s export sector is slowing, al-
io thus presupposes small but crucial
The likelihood of an even worse sce- though domestic consumption is ex-
steps of policy improvement.
nario – in which the euro zone breaks pected to stay awake with lower taxes,
Even so, there will be a recession in up during our forecast period – is low lower inflation, and higher wages. We
the euro zone driven by fiscal auster- (5%) but the negative impact on the foresee that there is room for stimulus,
ity, credit crunch and lower confidence, euro zone, and the global economy as inflation is coming down to more
but the global economy will be able would be substantial. Sweden’s GDP palatable levels, although the amount
to avoid it, as emerging markets and would shrink as it did in 2008-2009, or of stimulus will fall short of the vast
the US continue to recover, albeit at a even worse, as the policy tools in the support given in 2008-2009. Growth in
India, Brazil, and Russia will also slow,
although these countries, together with
Macro economic indicators, 2010- 2013
2010 2011e 2012f 2013f many other emerging economies, will
Real GDP growth, annual change in % support global growth through the con-
Sweden (calender adjusted) 5.3 4.5 0.6 1.8 tinuation of their catching up of living
Estonia 2.3 8.0 2.7 4.0
Latvia -0.3 5.4 2.0 3.2 standards. This is in contrast to most
Lithuania 1.4 6.3 3.3 4.0 advanced economies, whose fiscal
Unemployment rate, % of labour force stances and credit policies will be crip-
Sweden 8.4 7.5 7.8 8.0
Estonia 16.9 12.5 10.7 8.6 pled by high debt and austerity.
Latvia 18.7 15.4 13.7 12.0
Lithuania 17.8 15.5 13.5 11.5 Commodity prices will fall during the
Consumer price index, annual change in % forecast period, as global demand
Sweden 1.2 3.0 1.5 1.7 abates. The oil price – for which risks
Estonia 3.0 5.0 3.2 3.0 are building up in relation to EU embar-
Latvia -1.1 4.4 2.4 2.5
Lithuania 1.3 4.1 2.5 3.0 go of Iranian oil – is expected to drop
Current account, % of GDP from last year’s $112 per barrel to $102
Sweden 6.2 7.5 7.7 7.3 this year, and $96 in 2013. Food and
Estonia 7.2 6.7 4.4 2.7
Latvia 3.0 -0.9 -1.8 -1.9 metal markets will also on average see
Lithuania 1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 prices decrease in 2012 and then sta-
Sources: National statistics authorities and Swedbank.
January 24, 2012 2

3. Introduction Swedbank Economic Outlook
bilise in 2013. This means that inflation be positive, reaching 0.6% in calendar- fore picking up to 3.2% in 2013, when
pressures are coming down, thereby adjusted terms, before picking up to the euro zone situation improves some-
allowing for a more expansionary mon- 1.8% in 2013. The Riksbank will cut its what. Unemployment will continue to
etary policy, especially in emerging policy rate to 1% towards the end of fall, reaching 12% in 2013, and inflation
markets, where there is room. In most 2012, while the government will reject will also drift downwards to 2.5%. The
advanced economies, policy interest demands for further stimulus unless the main domestic forecast risks are house-
rates will stay low or near zero, being situation worsens markedly. hold resilience, and politicians’ commit-
raised only towards the end of 2013. ment to further budget consolidation.
Estonia’s economy is forecast to have
More quantitative and/or credit eas- Although the euro adoption target for
grown by a respectable 8% last year,
ing is foreseen in the UK and Japan, 2014 remains on the Latvian political
supported both by stronger exports and
but not in the US unless its recovery agenda, the euro zone’s ability to ac-
a pickup in domestic demand. The ef-
slows. In the euro zone, the ECB is cept new members may be obstructed
fect on the labour market has been
foreseen as cutting the repurchase rate by the recession and debt crisis.
positive, with a substantial drop in un-
to 0.75%, and as providing more liquid-
employment to 12.5% on average in Lithuania’s GDP growth seems to have
ity, if needed, to calm financial markets.
2011 from almost 17% the year before. been in accordance with our earlier ex-
The US dollar is expected to strengthen
Going forward, exports and invest- pectations, as it is estimated to have
against the euro during 2012, and then
ments will lose steam, as the demand reached 6.3% last year. The export
to weaken somewhat. The euro will de-
from the rest of Europe dampens. sector and domestic demand drove the
preciate, thus providing some stimulus
Growth will slow to 2.7% this year and recovery, although, as in Latvia, net ex-
to the export industry. The yen is also
then return to a higher rate in 2013 of ports actually contributed negatively to
seen as weakening against the dollar,
4.0%. Although revised upwards, the growth. We expect lower export growth
not least since Japan’s trade balance is
inflation rate is set to slow compared ahead, as demand from Lithuania’s
worsening. And the Chinese renminbi
with last year, and the unemployment main export markets will dampen. In-
will continue to appreciate against the
rate is expected to decrease to 8.6% vestments will continue to grow rela-
dollar, unless exports hit the wall and
in 2013. The main domestic risk is the tively fast because they remain near
the Chinese administration once again
labour market, since there is a short- historical lows, the demand for busi-
looks for ways of stimulating the econ-
age of skilled labour in some sectors; ness investment is still high, and large
omy.
meanwhile, long-term unemployment EU funds are still available. House-
Sweden’s GDP is estimated to have remains a structural problem. holds will benefit from unemployment’s
increased by 4.5% last year, continu- coming down to 11.5% next year from
Latvia’s economy also grew faster than
ing its strong development in 2010. Af- 15.5% in 2011, and from inflation’s fall-
expected in 2011, as GDP is estimated
ter three quarters of brisk growth, the ing to 2.5% this year, before rising again
to have grown by 5.4%. Stronger ex-
economy is seen to have shrunk in the in 2013. Even so, private consumption
ports pushed up investments, and, as
fourth quarter. With a contraction also growth is set to decrease. Domestic
the labour market improved, reducing
in this year’s first quarter, Sweden’s risks include a stronger need for budget
unemployment from almost 19% in
economy is technically in recession. consolidation as the economy slows, as
2010 to 15.4% in 2011, confidence and
In particular, exports are decreasing, well as the outlook for euro adoption,
household consumption strengthened.
and household spending growth is be- which has become more uncertain.
The IMF/EC-supported bailout pro-
ing held back by low confidence and
gramme was successfully completed The outlook for the advanced econo-
expectations of higher unemployment.
in late 2011. Going forward, a global mies looks bleak for the next couple of
As the economy recovers due to better
slowdown and euro zone recession will years, and their fiscal challenges are
export possibilities, hitherto favourable
dampen Latvia’s growth prospects, as substantial also from the longer term
unit labour costs, and lower interest
GDP growth slows to 2.0% in 2012 be- perspective. Without structural policies
rates, overall annual growth in 2012 will
to enhance growth, Sweden’s and the
Baltic countries’ main export markets
Gross domestic product (annual growth in %)
will – with some exceptions – develop
15
weakly for many years to come. The
10
Estonia need to step up export diversification,
5 Euro zone i.e., focus more on the emerging mar-
Lithuania kets, is increasing. To remain competi-
0
Latvia tive, it will be crucial to put more weight
-5 Sweden on R&D, supporting our regional clus-
-10 ters of excellence.
-15
-20 Cecilia Hermansson
-25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Ecowin
January 24, 2012 3

4. Swedbank Economic Outlook
Global rough patch – but no meltdown
The worldwide recovery after the finan- hovering around 50 – these indicate no selling assets, and to buffer more capi-
cial crisis and the global recession in growth or shrinking industrial produc- tal and become more cautious about
2008-2009 slowed during the autumn tion. The OECD’s leading indicator sig- onward lending to other banks, compa-
of 2011. Growth in GDP, industrial pro- nals a recession, mainly due to falling nies, and households. Interbank inter-
duction, and exports dampened, es- new orders and more negative finan- est rates have risen in the euro zone,
pecially in the euro zone, as well as in cial market statistics. In line with these and banks are depositing more funds
many of the emerging markets, such as soft data, hard data on the outcome of overnight at the central bank, the ECB.
China, India, and Brazil. In the US, on global trade have shown stagnation at
The vicious circle involving the debt cri-
the contrary, economic growth picked best.
sis in the euro zone, budget consolida-
up after a disappointingly weak first half
The most obvious deterioration during tion, and the fragile banking system is
of the year.
the autumn can be found in the increas- at the forefront of the crisis. The result
The main reasons for the world econo- ingly negative confidence indicators, as at the moment is austerity in public fi-
my’s shifting to a lower gear have been well as in the more severe stress on nance as well as credit markets, caus-
economic, political, and psychological. financial markets. The main reason for ing demand to shrink and the risks of a
As the financial crisis has changed its the lower confidence is the public debt more severe recession to increase.
focus from private to public debt, politi- crises in the US, UK, and – especially –
Although the US, UK, and Japan are
cal decisions on how to handle budget the euro zone.
facing serious difficulties in even-high-
deficits, austerity programs, and re-
Downward revisions of credit ratings er budget deficits and increasing pub-
forms have been more difficult to agree
for banks and countries, falling bank lic debt, the financial markets trust that
upon. This has been true in the US as
shares, widening spreads on contracts these countries will be able to handle
well as in the UK, and especially so in
for credit default swaps (CDSs) and the challenges in the short to medium
the euro zone, where one political sum-
government bonds for the crisis-struck term. In the euro zone, on the other
mit after another has claimed – without
countries Greece, Portugal, and, in- hand, financial markets are demanding
substantiation – to have come up with
creasingly so, for Spain and Italy – all very high risk premiums for countries
credible solutions. However, financial
these signal rising concern about a where default risks have increased. In
market actors, companies, and house-
default on government debt and also, addition, while the debt crisis there has
holds have lost confidence in the future,
even more so, about the politicians’ de- coincided with the building up of strong-
thereby helping to worsen the outlook
mands for private sector involvement. er institutions to manage the currency
for financial conditions, investments,
In addition, the requirements for banks union, these institutions are at the mo-
and consumption.
to increase capital adequacy as early ment not capable of handling default
Notable are the low purchasing man- as June this year also increases the risks within an EMU context. Instead,
agers’ indices (PMIs) in most countries stress on the financial system, causing there have been attempts to find sup-
during the second half of last year – banks to shrink their balance sheets by port elsewhere, such as from the IMF,
emerging markets, and other non-EMU
Global GDP outlook 2010 - 2013 (annual percentage change) 1/ countries.
January 2012 October 2011
The challenges for the currency union
2010 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
are linked to the lack of fiscal coordi-
nation/cooperation, the inclination of
US 3.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.9 2.4
EMU countries 1.8 1.6 -0.3 0.2 1.6 0.8 1.2 countries to take a national response
Of which: Germany 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.9 2.9 1.1 1.5 to banking regulation instead of ap-
France 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 pointing a sole banking regulation for
Italy 1.2 0.5 -1.3 -0.8 0.6 0.3 0.8 the euro zone, and the divergence in
Spain -0.1 0.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 0.4 1.0 growth, labor participation, and com-
UK 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 petitiveness between the North and the
Japan 4.5 -0.5 1.7 0.9 -0.2 2.5 1.2 South in the euro zone.
China 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.8 9.0 8.4 8.0 Three scenarios for the euro
India 10.1 7.3 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.5 7.5 zone set the global stage
Brazil 7.5 3.0 2.7 2.2 3.7 4.0 4.3
Since the global economic outlook is
Russia 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5
so dependent now on political and psy-
Global GDP in PPP 5.1 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.7
chological factors in, especially, the
Global GDP in US$ 4.1 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9
euro zone, we have built our global
Sources: National statistics and Swedbank. scenarios on the basis of probabilities
1/ Countries representing around 70 % of the global economy. The World Bank weights from 2010 have for three different outcomes in the euro
been used.
January 24, 2012 4

5. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
zone. Notable is the great uncertainty Structural defict 2011, necessary fiscal adjustment, and its
surrounding the outlook, as evidenced impact on growth
10
by the rather even chances for the
8
main scenario and worse outcomes.
6
Our probabilities are only broad guide-
lines designed to make clear what the 4
Percent of GDP
Structural def icit
assumptions are, and should not be 2
Adjustment
seen as having been constructed in a 0
Growth impact
scientific or rigorous manner. -2
-4
1. Main scenario: some small positive
steps towards improvement in the euro -6
zone and subsequently a global slow- -8
down in which recessions are limited to -10 Sources:
Finland Germany Italy Eurozone France Portugal Spain Greece Ireland EU commission and
crisis-struck countries in the euro zone Swedbank
(55%)
The main arguments for a more op- Mechanism (ESM) to July this year, with However, even if the crisis in the euro
timistic view on the euro zone can be an effective lending capacity of €500 zone does not worsen during 2012 (es-
linked to the agreements made at the billion, and in dropping the reference to pecially in the second half of the year,
most recent EU Summit, the measures future private sector involvement and as we see room for volatility and back-
taken by the ECB, and the increased deciding on voting procedures that will lashes in the first half), the effects on
pace of reform and consolidation in the allow lending decisions to be taken on growth will be massive, as the budget
crisis-struck countries. the basis of a qualified majority of 85%. consolidation measures will dampen
These initiatives strengthen the stability demand, especially in the crisis-struck
At the EU Summit, on December 9, an
mechanism, as the current European countries, but also in the rest of Europe
agreement was reached on stronger
Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has and globally as well. Also, the credit
fiscal cooperation, or a fiscal compact.
been seen as both inadequate in size crunch will be negative for growth.
Countries are required to limit their
and too fragile in its setup. There is also
structural budget deficits to 0.5% of Therefore, our main scenario includes
a possibility that additional resources
GDP, and public debt ratios to 60% of recessions in the countries where ad-
will be supplied to the IMF by national
GDP, otherwise semi-automatic sanc- justment is the largest, and low growth
banks in the euro zone and other EU
tions set in. This is allowing the ECB to or stagnation in other parts of Europe.
countries.
play a larger role in the short term, as Global growth will slow, but not as se-
the bank now provides unlimited liquid- There are other indications that the cri- verely as if the euro zone crisis had
ity for banks with three-year fixed-rate sis may become less contagious. The worsened. Emerging markets will con-
loans at 1%, in addition to loosening up technocratic governments in Greece tinue to grow, but somewhat more slow-
its collateral policies. and Italy, as well as the new govern- ly than during 2010 and 2011, and the
ments in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, US will start to see a more robust re-
These measures are thereby directly
are moving forward with their consolida- covery, although at a slower pace than
supporting banks in their efforts to in-
tion and reform measures. In addition, during most other recession recoveries.
crease their capital adequacy through
even if Italy’s interest rates were to be Overall, global growth will reach just
improved profitability, thus potentially al-
7% or above, it would take years for the above 3% during 2012 and 2013 in pur-
leviating the credit crunch; indirect sup-
debt-service costs to cause a collapse chasing power parity (PPP)-weighted
port is also being given to governments
since Italy’s debt stock has a relatively terms.
since the additional funds, in turn, are
long maturity (about seven years).
likely to be invested in sovereign bonds. 2. Worse scenario: gradual deteriora-
In addition, the ECB still has room to Increasingly, reforms will be designed tion in the euro zone, as in 2011, with
continue to purchase bonds in the Se- to support growth, thereby facilitating lower confidence and increased finan-
curities Markets Programme (SMP), the deleveraging of public debt. Finan- cial stress – and with demands for larg-
thereby indirectly absorbing some of cial markets will also gain confidence in er policy responses – leading to deep
the new supply from Spain and Italy. the decisions to remove private sector recession in the euro zone and much
All in all, the ECB’s interventions are involvement; this combined with a bet- weaker global demand (40%)
becoming sizable despite the bank’s re- ter understanding of the differences
There are still extensive risks to the
sistance to monetary financing of sov- between the economic strengths of
brighter scenario described above, as
ereign debt and its stated adherence to Italy, France, and Spain, on the one
financial markets may not be convinced
the terms of the EU Treaty. hand, and the economic weaknesses of
that the measures agreed upon are suf-
Greece, on the other, will help contain
An important step was also taken in ficient. First, there are risks concerning
the spread of the crisis, going forward.
bringing forward the European Stability the details with regard to the measures
January 24, 2012 5

6. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
that will be settled in March this year. of private sector involvement may not 3. Chaotic scenario: breaking up of the
Not all national parliaments may go succeed, thus increasing the risk for a euro zone with severe stress on finan-
along with the agreement reached at default in March. Even if Greece is not cial markets and global recession as
the summit in December. Backlashes forced to leave the euro zone as a re- outcome (5%)
may occur, as financial markets find out sult, the contagion to other countries
The reasons for the relatively low prob-
that the measures will be less reassur- could rise, meaning that the crisis again
ability of a breakup the euro zone are
ing than hoped. escalates. In addition, there are great
that there is a strong political will to
uncertainties with regard to Greece’s
Second, even if private sector involve- keep the currency union together, and
commitment to fulfill the conditions set
ment is taken off the table, except in that the costs of a breakup would far
up in the reform program, as implemen-
Greece, financial markets may not be exceed the costs of a rescue.
tation so far has been very slow.
able to fully believe this will hold; thus,
Even so, the probability is not 0 %. De-
interest rate spreads will remain high. Also, the spread of the crisis from the
spite support mechanisms provided by
Third, the effects of Standard and periphery to the core countries could
the EFSF, ESM, IMF, and ECB, there
Poor’s decision to downgrade 9 of the still continue during 2012 and 2013,
is a risk that politicians and their voters
euro zone countries may have more se- increasing the need to take measures,
in stronger member countries no longer
vere economic effects than so far not- such as more support from the ECB,
want to show solidarity with the weaker
ed. In addition, the effects of the down- transfers to the IMF, and an enlarge-
ones, or that the politicians and their
grading of the EFSF could become ment of the ESM. The large issuance
voters in the crisis-struck countries no
more crucial, especially if the ESM is of debt during 2012 of some €2,000
longer want to adhere to the condition-
not brought forward to July this year. billion will cause stress, especially for
ality that comes with the support.
If financing costs increase as a result Italy and Spain during the first half of
of the downgrading, as well as to simi- this year. If a crisis-struck country like Greece de-
lar decisions by other rating institutes, cided to not comply with the conditions
In this scenario, the politicians and
the outlook for the real economy could set for support, public sector and finan-
other policymakers continue “kicking
worsen. cial sector insolvency could lead it to
the can down the road.” They manage
the drastic decision to leave the curren-
Fourth, the agreements made on the to keep the currency union together
cy union. The costs involved would be
fiscal compact will speed up the budget during 2012 and 2013, but the effects
enormous: the government would shut
consolidation, especially after our fore- on financing costs, financial markets’
down, the banking sector would face a
cast horizon of 2014 and onwards. stress, confidence, and demand will be
systemic crisis, with bank runs, capital
Euro zone members will have to build more negative, thus also contributing to
flight, credit crunch, and nationalisa-
up larger primary surpluses in order a faster slowdown of global growth than
tion as a result, private wealth would be
to reach the debt ratio of 60% of GDP in our main scenario.
hurt, confidence would fall, a recession
in some 20 years, as seems to be the
The recovery in the US will be fragile, would set in, and the government would
goal. If reforms are not undertaken to
and emerging markets will have diffi- have to start adjusting fiscal balances
increase growth, competitiveness, and
culties in keeping up their exports and by tightening despite the depreciation
labour market participation, the outlook
subsequently also their domestic de- of the new currency by some 40-60%
for the euro zone worsens and stagna-
mand. Global growth will reach at best compared with the euro. Even with the
tion can be expected at best in the short
only 2%: the dividing line between glo- lower value of the new currency, the
and medium term.
bal growth and global recession. export outlook (including for the tour-
Moreover, the likelihood for deflation ism sector) would be hampered by the
and new recessions will increase in credit crunch and the falling confidence,
combination with political and social un-
rest. The financial markets may not find
Interest rate diffence vs. Germany (10y government bond)
the agreements made to be credible 35
in the sense that debt problems could
30
worsen, and the growth outlook will be
very bleak. In addition, the divergence 25 Greece
between the North and the South may Portugal
Percentage points
20 Ireland
widen as a result, thus driving expec-
Italy
tations that the currency union may 15
Spain
not hold together in the medium term, 10
Belgium
which, in turn, would affect the short- France
term view. 5
0
Of great importance is the handling of
the crisis in Greece. The negotiation -5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Ecowin
January 24, 2012 6

7. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
OECD industrial production and leading indicators; and global ment for most OECD countries in either
exports the short or medium term.
15 190
The drivers of the main scenario are
10 170 the fiscal austerity packages in the
OECD industrial
Annual percentage change
5 150 production euro zone, the lower confidence, and
the credit crunch, as well as the rise in
Index
0 130 OECD leading
indicators unemployment, all of which are lead-
-5 110 ing to lower demand growth, which
Global export
volume (rhs) will spread to other regions as well. In
-10 90 the euro zone, the need for austerity
-15 70 amounts to 3.3% of GDP – the level re-
quired in order for countries on average
-20 50
to reach a structural deficit of 0.5% of
1995 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010
Source: Ecowin GDP. This would mean some 1.7% of
GDP in negative growth effect, perhaps
spread out over two years (see Chart
as generated political and social unrest. this time it would be more difficult to
on page 5). In the US, the fiscal stimu-
Most likely, the depreciation of the cur- overcome the problems since the room
lus is decreasing compared with 2010
rency would lead to higher inflation. for massive monetary and fiscal stimu-
and 2011, but more extensive austerity
lus is no longer there.
For countries remaining in the euro will be postponed to 2014 and beyond.
zone, the risk of financial market con- Global growth would most likely be Both the labour market and the housing
tagion would be high, although the ef- negative in this scenario since the euro market are starting to recover, although
fects on the real economy would be zone is heavily linked to the rest of the slowly.
small due to the relatively small size world through financial markets and
The weaker demand will also drive
of Greece (compared with what would trade; moreover, since the recession
commodity prices lower. Since emerg-
happen if, e.g., Spain and Italy left would again be characterised as a bal-
ing markets will grow relatively quickly,
the EMU). The strains on the banking ance sheet recession, the recovery pe-
although slower than in the past two
system in the euro zone would be the riod would be slow and prolonged. The
years, the demand for commodities
largest problem, but falling confidence long-term costs of a breakup would be
will stay rather high. We foresee the
through fear and negative wealth ef- large as well, as EU cooperation would
oil price per barrel falling from $112
fects would also lower demand in the be affected through the poorer function-
in 2011 to $102 in 2012 and to $96 in
remaining euro zone countries, as well ing of the single market, and the outlook
2013. Also, metal and food prices will
as in other parts of the world, depend- for Europe from a global competitive-
fall during 2012 and then stabilise in
ing on the size of the country/countries ness perspective would be less benign.
2013. There are many risks involved,
leaving the EMU.
Main features driving the global such as Iran’s threatening to cut off the
If any or a few of the stronger euro zone outlook in our main scenario supply of oil from the Strait of Hormuz
members decided to leave the currency We find the scenario of small steps to- following EU oil embargo, leading to a
union, the appreciation of the new cur- wards improvement in the euro zone higher oil price than we assume here.
rency would lead to lower competitive- most likely, although the risks for a All in all, however, commodity prices
ness and a loss of jobs in the export worse scenario are very high. In the will face downward pressure as the glo-
sector, weaker public finance, and an longer term, the risk of a breakup of bal slowdown accentuates.
increased need for bank recapitalisa- the euro is higher than 5%, unless in- Inflation will therefore abate this year,
tion. Countries remaining in the euro stitutions are strengthened sufficiently compared with the relatively high price
zone would face problems involving in order to enhance growth and com- increases during 2011, not least in the
capital flight, the decreased potential petitiveness and to facilitate the con- emerging markets. This opens up room
for support through the EFSF/ESM, fall- vergence of developments in euro zone for a looser monetary policy in emerg-
ing confidence, and expectations that countries. ing markets, as well as in the euro zone,
the remaining countries would leave
The slowdown of GDP growth from where the ECB will be able to cut policy
the union as well.
some 5% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011 to interest rates further. Also, in advanced
The effects on the European econo- just above 3 % in 2012 and 2013 rep- countries where policy rates have been
mies and the global economy would resents a shift to a lower gear, thus raised, there is room for a more expan-
be severe in the context of a breakup, leading to a worsening outlook for la- sionary monetary policy, limiting the
even if it did not happen overnight. The bour markets and household income in downturn in the business cycle. In the
risk of a repeat of the standstill in the many countries. This outlook will also US, another round of quantitative eas-
credit markets, as occurred during the make budget consolidation more dif- ing cannot be excluded, but in our main
autumn of 2008, would be large, and ficult to achieve, a necessary require- scenario the need for this may be de-
January 24, 2012 7

8. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
Interest rate and exchange rate assumptions
southern part of Europe and Ireland are
Outcome Forecast
20 Jan 30 Jun 31 Dec 30 Jun 31 Dec much worse, as these economies are
2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 shrinking due to fiscal and credit aus-
Policy rates terity, high (youth)unemployment, and
Federal Reserve, USA 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 weak confidence. The result is lower
European Central Bank 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 consumer spending, postponements of
Bank of England 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 investment, and more bankruptcies in
Bank of Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
both the nonfinancial and the financial
Exchange rates sector.
EUR/USD 1.29 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.30
USD/RMB 6.34 6.18 6.05 5.94 5.82 The economic outlook will get worse
USD/JPY 77 78 80 82 85 before it gets better, and we expect the
euro zone to remain in recession dur-
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Swedbank.
ing the first half of this year, before im-
creasing. Still, there and in other OECD During 2012, the presidential election is proving slightly and becoming stagnant
countries policy rates will remain low or in focus. Difficulties in reaching agree- during most of 2012 and 2013. GDP in
close to 0% during the forecast period ment on the Republican candidate, as the euro zone is expected to decrease
due to the restrictive fiscal policy; not well as an improvement in labour and by 0.3% in 2012, before returning to
until towards the end of or beyond 2013 housing, increase President Obama’s positive territory, at 0.2%, in 2013. This
will rates start to be raised. chances of reelection. During 2013, the means two lost years for the euro zone
fiscal gridlock will accentuate regard- during our forecast period. Germany
In a climate of few policy tools and
less of which party wins the election. will also technically be in recession as
weaker domestic demand, countries
The lack of trust among the members of GDP most likely fell fourth quarter last
will not like to see their exchange rates
congress partly explains their unwilling- year and the first quarter this year, al-
appreciate substantially, as exports will
ness to find compromises, a situation though a stronger labour market, bet-
remain the most important source of
that does not have to improve after the ter competitiveness and lower inflation/
recovery. China has declared that the
election unless leadership (and “follow- weaker euro will support the recovery
renminbi will be allowed to appreciate
ership”) strengthens. occurring in the second half of 2012.
somewhat faster against the dollar,
the US may see the dollar strengthen There is a risk that tax cuts and unem- As we see some improvements in the
against the euro with its more robust re- ployment benefits will not be extended policy process directed towards cri-
covery, and the yen is likely to weaken beyond the two months already agreed, sis management and the longer-term
as Japan’s trade balance deteriorates. thus creating an unnecessarily restric- building of stronger monetary union
tive fiscal policy during the forecast pe- institutions, we do not foresee a dis-
Developments in major orderly default and exit of Greece
riod, as well as a more negative GDP
economies from the euro zone, nor do we expect
outlook than we have forecast. Another
US risk is, of course, the outlook in the more countries to need a restructuring
Although the momentum in the US euro zone, which, due to the increased of debt besides the ones already with
economy has become more positive squeeze on US credit markets, as well IMF/ECB/EU-supported programmes
lately, as shown by, inter alia, GDP as lower exports and confidence, could (Greece, Ireland, and Portugal).
growth and PMI figures, fundamental lead to slower growth in the US also. Italy and Spain are favoured by the
challenges remain, such as the on- The Federal Reserve will maintain its new rules and measures decided at the
going deleveraging and great fiscal zero-interest-rate policy during most of EU summit at the end of last year. The
uncertainties, which continue to hold the forecasting period; it will use more amount of new bonds needed to be is-
down households’ and companies’ con- quantitative easing only if growth falls sued for these two countries is €450
fidence. In addition, despite improve- below 2%, if deflation risks are building billion in 2012 – €150 billion in the
ments, the labour and housing markets up, or if fiscal policy becomes more re- first quarter alone. Since the introduc-
are still a drag on the economy. strictive, thus risking the occurrence of tion of the three-year fixed- rate loans,
a new recession. yields in the shorter maturities have
We have revised our forecast upwards
for 2011 and 2012 to 1.8 % and 2.0 % Euro zone decreased substantially; this improves
respectively, but are still sceptical about the funding situation for these countries
The euro zone is already experienc-
the longer-term outlook, which includes and reduces the need for further ECB
ing negative growth on a quarterly ba-
a slight downward revision for 2013. government bond purchases on the
sis, including in Germany and France,
Without structural reforms creating secondary markets.
where conditions for manufacturing
stronger impetus for higher demand, and retail worsened towards the end The spread of the crisis to the core of
the trend growth is likely to stay just of last year. However, developments the euro zone will also abate in our
above 2% going forward. in the crisis-struck economies in the main scenario, thus resulting in high,
January 24, 2012 8

9. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
but not very much higher, financing beat) scenario. Other risks to the euro addition, the strong yen and the more
costs of sovereign debt. zone include political developments, as negative global outlook are dampening
Finland, France and Greece face elec- Japanese export possibilities. Almost
Due to the shrinking of balance sheets
tions this spring, and the momentum of half of Japan’s exports are directed to
in the banking sector, we expect the
reforms and budget consolidation could the US and the euro zone, and lower
financing costs of private debt to rise
be interrupted (the French Socialist demand from China will also affect
further, and the availability of credit to
candidate Hollande would like to rene- some 7% of exports. The current ac-
diminish. Especially during the first
gotiate the fiscal compact if elected). count surplus decreased by almost
half of 2012, before the recapitalisation
The outlook for emerging markets is 50% in the first half of the 2011 fiscal
of banks has been finalised, and while
also a risk, and if demand slows more year, compared with the same period in
banks/countries are still faced with fall-
than expected, the export outlook for 2010. The earthquake is an important
ing bank shares and the downgrading
the euro zone will worsen substantially. explanation, but so is the increasingly
of credit ratings, financial developments
This risk is higher for Ireland and Ger- weaker competitiveness. The striving
are likely to worsen before improving
many, where exports to the world as a to take part in the Trans-Pacific Part-
in the second half of the year.
share of in GDP are 54% and 36%, re- nership, as well as to improve foreign
After decisions on budget rules have spectively, and the share of euro zone exchange and trade cooperation with
been taken in March at the latest, the exports is 22% and 15%. A weakening China, should be seen as measures
ESM has been put in place in mid-2012, of the euro could have a positive impact that need to be taken to improve trade
and the recapitalisation of banks has on the growth outlook for the euro zone relations.
been finalised (although the Basel III through better exporting possibilities –
The stronger yen, fundamentally weak
rules will demand further actions), the important not least for the crisis-struck
demand, and lower global commodity
policy focus is likely to move to struc- countries in southern Europe, where
prices will cause deflation during most
tural reforms and measures to increase competitiveness is weaker.
of the forecast period. The Bank of Ja-
growth and competitiveness. Without
Japan pan will continue to keep the policy rate
such measures, the response by the
Japan’s economy also seems to have near zero and use the tool of credit eas-
ECB will have only “bought time,” and
shifted to a lower gear, after recovering ing from time to time. Purchases of for-
the underlying problems of high debt
during the third quarter last year with eign assets should not be excluded as
and low growth will remain. The ECB is
an increase of 1.4% over the previous a tool to weaken the yen. Fiscal stimu-
likely to lower the policy rate to 0.75%
quarter. The slower growth in the rest of lus for the recovery programs amounts
although the overnight interest rate will
the world is affecting Japan negatively, to 3.8% of GDP in the first three sup-
be lower, and it will continue to pur-
but due to the need to build up the pro- plements to the original budget of fis-
chase sovereign debt in the secondary
duction levels after the earthquake, tsu- cal-year 2011. For fiscal-year 2012, the
markets through the SMP. Up to now,
nami, and Fukushima nuclear disaster new budget is somewhat smaller than
liquidity operations (both credit and
last spring, there are still expectations the previous one; however, the budget
quantitative easing) represent €788 bil-
of 1.7% growth in 2012 – higher than in deficit is expected to be higher than 5%
lion; thus, the ECB is more supportive
2011, when the economy is expected to of GDP, and debt equivalent of some
towards banks, governments, and bor-
have shrunk by 0.5%. $3,500 billion will be issued to finance
rowers than at any time before.
the budget. In the short run, govern-
There are great risks to this outlook. As There are several reasons for our down- ment debt as a share of GDP will in-
we have described above, the probabil- ward revision of the Japanese outlook. crease above 230%. In the longer run,
ity of a worse outcome is almost as high Even if production in the private sec- the plan to raise the income tax over the
as our more optimistic (but still down- tor is being restored, there have been
next 25 years is one step in the process
lags in the public recovery programs. In
of improving the fiscal outlook. How-
ever, Prime Minister Noda’s proposal to
Commodity prices (indices)
increase national sales taxes from 5%
180
to 10% has not yet been accepted by
160 parliamentarians in his own party.
140 Commodity
prices - total
China
120 Weaker exports have dampened the
Food prices
100 outlook for China, but to a lesser extent
than for many other economies. The
80
Commodity rebalancing of growth to household
prices - excl.
60 energy spending is still mostly rhetoric, but with
higher wages, lower taxes, and infla-
40
tion, the outlook for private consump-
20 tion can improve. The government’s
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Ecowin
January 24, 2012 9

10. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
program to build affordable housing outlook were to deteriorate sharply, a Brazil
will uphold investments. The economy slowdown of this appreciation could be A more restrictive economic policy and
can also – if needed – be supported by expected. slower global demand caused the Bra-
a more expansionary fiscal and mon- zilian growth rate to dampen markedly
India
etary policy than has been announced; during 2011. We estimate GDP to have
this will be made possible as the infla- After a strong 2010, GDP growth
increased by 3% in annual terms, com-
tion rate approaches comfort levels of slowed gradually during 2011, and we
pared with the strong recovery after the
some 3-4%. We expect GDP to grow expect it reached on average 7.3%.
crisis in 2010, when GDP increased by
by 8.2% this year, revised downwards During this year, growth will fall further,
7.5%.
from 8.4% in October because the glo- to 6.7%, before recovering somewhat
to 7.0% in 2013. Going forward, the effects from higher
bal trade and manufacturing outlook
interest rates will be felt more through-
has worsened. In 2013, the growth The main reason for the lower growth is
out the economy. The Central Bank
rate will slow further, to 7.8%, as the the attempts to reduce inflation, which
increased the policy rate to 12.5% last
domino effects from weaker real estate had reached double digits after the glo-
summer and has since lowered it three
prices affect the economy. bal recession and financial crisis. The
times to 11%. The credit expansion has
Reserve Bank of India has over a peri-
The main factor contributing to our been brisk but will start to slow.
od of almost two years hiked the policy
view, which is a bit more negative than
rate by 475 basis points to 8.5%. After The global outlook will put a downward
the consensus, is the property market,
the summer of 2010, the inflation rates pressure on commodity prices, which
which is affecting the economy in many
came down and have since stagnated will also affect Brazilian exports and
ways. Real estate investments make up
at this lower level. Counteracting higher dampen investment growth in industry
more than 7% of GDP, and other parts
interest rates and less liquidity, the in- and energy. Inflation will thus also be
of the economy (10-15 %) are heavily
flation rate has been driven by higher able to fall further, to just above 5%.
reliant on property investments. About
commodity prices, inflows of capital, a In order to maintain growth, fiscal and
half of local governments’ revenues
high growth of demand – not least in monetary policy will be made more
come from land sales. The rate of hous-
the urban areas – and a weaker rupee. expansionary; this will also make the
ing starts, as well as of house prices,
slowdown milder of growth in employ-
has come down dramatically in some of We expect the inflation pressures to
ment, income, and credit.
the major cities over the last couple of abate in the coming quarters, and that
quarters, and land prices have started the Reserve Bank of India can start Countries with special impact on
to fall. Mainly, this outlook sees a mild easing monetary policy this spring. Sweden and the Baltic countries
slowdown of the real estate market; if There are several risks affecting the In- Despite strong growth in quarterly
it were to accelerate and deepen, the dian economy, of which the global out- terms (0.5%) in the third quarter, the
effects on the economy would also be look is one. Another is the current ac- United Kingdom’s (UK) underlying
more negative. The People’s Bank of count (export growth is slowing faster demand outlook is weak. We foresee
China has cut reserve requirements, than import growth) and the budget twin GDP to grow, but only by 0.5% in both
and in the first half of 2012 it will also deficits which put a cap on the fiscal 2012 and 2013. To reduce the vast
cut the policy rate, as inflation has fall- stimulus available if needed and also budget deficit of almost 9% of GDP in
en further. The appreciation of the ren- affect confidence negatively, leading to 2011, the austerity package – which is
minbi against the dollar will continue at lower consumption and investments. front-loaded and large – will dampen
some 4-5 % per year, but if the export growth going forward.
Consumer price outlook, 2010 - 2013 (annual percentage change) Despite the high inflation (reaching
Outcome Forecast 5.2% in September before falling to
2010 2011 2012 2013 4.8% in November), the Bank of Eng-
US 1.6 3.2 2.4 2.1 land has resisted calls to restrict mon-
EMU countries 1.6 2.7 1.5 1.4 etary policy, expressing the view that
Of which: Germany 1.1 2.4 1.7 1.4 inflation pressures, caused by higher
France 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 taxes, the weaker pound sterling, and
Italy 1.5 2.8 2.1 1.0 higher commodity prices, are mainly
Spain 1.8 3.1 1.8 1.6 temporary. The policy rate will remain
UK 3.3 4.4 2.5 2.0 close to zero, and the unconventional
Japan -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 monetary policy will be continued. The
China 3.2 5.5 3.5 3.0 use of quantitative easing, as a share
India 10.2 8.4 5.3 4.5 of GDP, lately has been more substan-
Brazil 5.9 6.6 5.2 5.0 tial than in most other central banks.
Russia 6.9 8.6 7.0 7.5 Even so, the credit market is faced with
Sources: National statistics and Swedbank. austerity as British banks have become
January 24, 2012 10

11. Global Swedbank Economic Outlook
more cautious in their lending due to terest rates and higher real disposable Take a look at the long view
their exposure towards euro zone fi- income stimulate private consumption. The long-term developments are, of
nancial markets. Fiscal and credit aus- New oil discoveries and real estate course, dependent on the outcome in
terity will dampen consumption and in- construction will lift investments. Un- the next couple of years. If the situ-
vestment, holding back imports during employment will stabilise as the grow- ation in the euro zone improves, the
the forecast period. ing labour demand will be met by net need for acute crisis management is re-
immigration. GDP is expected to grow duced, and there will be more room for
Growth in Russia will slow, but only
by 2.0% in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013. growth-oriented policies. Reforms are
mildly, as GDP growth falls from 4.2%
in 2011 to 3.9% in 2012 and 3.7% in The collapse of the Danish hous- important – not just austerity! The need
2013. Russian companies will increase ing market, which started in 2007 and is vast, especially in southern Europe
investments more cautiously, as the where the situation deteriorated in where efforts must focus on strength-
global outlook worsens and commod- 2008, is still affecting the economy ad- ening competitiveness by improving the
ity prices fall. Membership in the WTO versely as domestic demand is being functioning of labour and product mar-
could mean stronger competition for held back by households’ adjustments kets, and increasing efforts on educa-
Russian producers. A larger fall in the of their balance sheets. In the third tion and research and development. A
oil price than we have assumed here quarter, GDP fell by 0.8% in quarterly higher growth and export performance
would dampen the outlook and the terms. With its main trading partners in would alleviate budget and current ac-
budget situation further. Another risk the euro zone, the crisis there will hit count constraints. It is important to note
is the credit crunch in the euro zone, Denmark. Because of the worsening that the situation in Germany does not
which also affects Russia through de- global outlook and the Danish govern- have to worsen in order for the situation
creased capital inflows, and larger ment’s need to consolidate the budget, in Greece or Portugal to improve – this,
outflows (in central and eastern Eu- the risk for a deeper recession has in- in the context of the euro zone, is not a
rope, also, there are large risks of a creased. We still see positive growth of zero-sum game.
credit crunch as capital will be direct- 0.7% in 2012, followed by somewhat As mentioned above, the building of
ed to banks in the euro zone, e.g., in stronger growth in 2013 as exports and stronger institutions in the euro zone
Austria, Italy, France, and Germany). investments improve slowly. must continue and will take time. In or-
Russian households will feel the effects der for a eurobond market to function
The recovery in Finland is losing mo-
from the increased fiscal austerity after well, political and fiscal coordination will
mentum, and GDP is now estimated
the election, and this will hold back have to strengthen. Meanwhile, there
to have increased by 2.8% last year. As
a more substantial increase in private could be setups where some countries
the export outlook will worsen when the
consumption. On the other hand, lower take the lead.
global economy slows, Finnish demand
inflation during 2012 will ease the situa-
is set to dampen. Consumer confidence The longer-term perspective also in-
tion for households somewhat.
is eroding and real income is falling, cludes the global imbalances and the
The Nordic countries show a mixed thereby slowing private consumption challenges to include the emerging
economic picture in which Norway out- and real estate investments. Also, busi- markets in the global institutions, which
performs the others. Even so, Norway ness investments are likely to be post- so far have been managed by the richer
entered a soft patch during last year poned. GDP is expected to increase by countries. Multilateralism will be tested
when GDP grew by only 1.4 % due to 0.4% this year, followed by a stronger further during 2012 and going forward,
weakened confidence and subdued ex- performance of 1.5% in 2013, when net when it comes to trade negotiations, cli-
ports. Domestic demand will provide exports and domestic demand begin to mate change, and financial regulation.
the main growth impetus as lower in- recover slowly. As China and other stronger emerging
markets enter more deeply into the glo-
GDP growth in Norway, Finland, Denmark and the euro zone bal economy, the global monetary and
10
financial systems will also change, and
8 in the next decade or so the dollar will
6 face increasing competition from other
euro zone
4 currencies, including the renminbi . The
Annual growth in %
2 Finland
euro will be part of the multipolar cur-
0 Norway* rency world;- how strong it will be will
-2 Denmark be determined by the measures taken
-4 now. A lot is at stake – the policymakers
* total have a chance to make a difference,
-6
-8 and it had better be positive!
-10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Ecowin Cecilia Hermansson
January 24, 2012 11