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A hands-on guide for modeling,
designing, and leading your
company's next radical innovation
Playbook
FOR STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT AND
Innovation
EXCERPT
2
Playbook
Development Team
Tamara Carleton
William Cockayne
Sponsors
art coordination
Graphic design and layout
Anna Raikkonen
Research Partners
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
3
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
Playbook overview
Welcome to a guide for the
strategic manager, the person
who is responsible for innovation—
next market, describing the
future customer, or developing an
amazing team who can reliably take
new visions to new markets.
Benefit to you
Strategic focus
How to use it
4
Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework
We introduce a comprehensive framework
the big idea.
Chapter 2. How to Start
Discover the different types of innovation
paths, people, and industry contexts to
help you start in the right place with the
right mindset.
Chapter 3. Perspective
The Context Map, Progression Curves, and
Janus Cones methods broaden your view
of the problem space, helping you to better
anticipate the future.
Chapter 4. Opportunity
The Generational Arcs, Future User, and
Futuretelling methods identify your future
customers in terms of macro, micro, and
narrative views.
Chapter 5. Solution
The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and
Change Path methods turn your idea into
a tangible artifact and plan.
Chapter 6. Team
The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and
and keep the right people engaged in your
pursuit of radical innovation.
Chapter 7. Vision
The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test,
organizational vision to direct your team’s
efforts.
Appendix
Supporting material includes a list of
readings, suggested data sources, and
other related items.
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
9
29
58
91
124
165
200
240
5
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
METHOD SHORTCUTS
6
FUTURE VISION
FOR PAPER
10 WORKSHOP
LESSONS FROM
AN INDUSTRY
VETERAN
A SECOND FUTURE
FOR UBICOM
HOW YLE DEFINED
A NEW FORESIGHT
CAPABILITY
SEEKING
VISIONARIES
AT DARPA
PROGRAM
MANAGERS AT DARPA
DARPA’S LESSONS
FOR INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGY
VISIONS AT DARPA
THE HEILMEIER
CATECHISM AT DARPA
THE ORIGINAL
VISION OF EPCOT
Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how
various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
A variety of case studies
7
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
How to use the playbook
The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material
types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation.
Overview
61
WhEN to use it
research
WhY it’s helpful
Context Maps
What you get
Example
Instructions
Insights
Tips
Photos
Template
62
Let’s look at an example
IDEAL
CITY
>
>
63
Instructions
1. Agree on a broad topic or
opportunity area your team
wants to pursue. You set the scale
of topic. Very broad topics may
2. Draw an outline for a Context Map
or use the worksheet template in
the playbook.
3. Start talking with your team about
dimensions as they arise. Points
of intense discussion or even
disagreement are good to include
in your Context Map.
4.
around your Context Map. At
5.
arrives at a map (or set of maps)
that captures your problem space
annotated example. The numbers in
numbers in the diagram.
67
Tips & lessons from others
REFLECTION
What is the proposed topic?
Why do you want to pursue it?
68
Additional examples
A major consumer electronics company used a An American police force considered how
decreasing state funds would impact a range of
ORIGINALS MISSING
© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
69
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
65
Drawing insights &
implications
8
Peter Drucker
Arthur C. Clarke
FORESIGHT FRAMEwork
ChaptER 1
Shortcuts
Foresight Framework 10
Five planning phases 11
Two guiding principles 14
The methodology 15
Underlying theories 18
An integrated system 21
Case study: Paper 24
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
Download a full copy of the Playbook and
go further with our open tools by visiting:
https://innovationacademy.io
Innovation Academy

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

  • 1. 1 A hands-on guide for modeling, designing, and leading your company's next radical innovation Playbook FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND Innovation EXCERPT
  • 2. 2 Playbook Development Team Tamara Carleton William Cockayne Sponsors art coordination Graphic design and layout Anna Raikkonen Research Partners Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
  • 3. 3 Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation Playbook overview Welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation— next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets. Benefit to you Strategic focus How to use it
  • 4. 4 Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework We introduce a comprehensive framework the big idea. Chapter 2. How to Start Discover the different types of innovation paths, people, and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset. Chapter 3. Perspective The Context Map, Progression Curves, and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space, helping you to better anticipate the future. Chapter 4. Opportunity The Generational Arcs, Future User, and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views. Chapter 5. Solution The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan. Chapter 6. Team The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and and keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation. Chapter 7. Vision The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test, organizational vision to direct your team’s efforts. Appendix Supporting material includes a list of readings, suggested data sources, and other related items. Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation TABLE OF CONTENTS 9 29 58 91 124 165 200 240
  • 5. 5 PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation METHOD SHORTCUTS
  • 6. 6 FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER 10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOM HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITY SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPA PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPA DARPA’S LESSONS FOR INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPA THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPA THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOT Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning. Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation A variety of case studies
  • 7. 7 Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation How to use the playbook The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation. Overview 61 WhEN to use it research WhY it’s helpful Context Maps What you get Example Instructions Insights Tips Photos Template 62 Let’s look at an example IDEAL CITY > > 63 Instructions 1. Agree on a broad topic or opportunity area your team wants to pursue. You set the scale of topic. Very broad topics may 2. Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook. 3. Start talking with your team about dimensions as they arise. Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map. 4. around your Context Map. At 5. arrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space annotated example. The numbers in numbers in the diagram. 67 Tips & lessons from others REFLECTION What is the proposed topic? Why do you want to pursue it? 68 Additional examples A major consumer electronics company used a An American police force considered how decreasing state funds would impact a range of ORIGINALS MISSING © 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton 69 CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet 65 Drawing insights & implications
  • 9. FORESIGHT FRAMEwork ChaptER 1 Shortcuts Foresight Framework 10 Five planning phases 11 Two guiding principles 14 The methodology 15 Underlying theories 18 An integrated system 21 Case study: Paper 24
  • 10. Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation Download a full copy of the Playbook and go further with our open tools by visiting: https://innovationacademy.io Innovation Academy