1. Business Growth
&
Frequency Demand
By Saran Phaloprakarn
Advanced Info. Services PLC.

2. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
by Region
Cisco Forecasts 11.2 Exabytes per
Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Smartphones Lead Traffic GrowthSmartphones Lead Traffic Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013

3. Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013
Mobile Video Will Generate Over 66 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Smartphone
(% of Data Consumption)
Tablet
(% of Data Consumption)
Video/Communications
Information
Web Browsing
Social Networking
Music/Audio Streaming
Top Applications for Data Consumption

4. Mobile Video Services in Thailand
AIS Movie Store

5. Japan: The number of smartphone subs
trend/forecast (conducted in 2013. 3)
# of smartphone subs # of feature phone subs Ratio of smartphone subs(million)
20
40
60
80
120
100
140
2013.32009.3 2010.3 2011.3 2012.3 2014.3 2015.3 2016.3 2017.3 2018.3
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
Source: MM research
http://www.m2ri.jp/newsreleases/main.php?id=010120130328500

6. Japan : Mobile data traffic growth
~ Latest government (MIC) statistics in Dec. 2012~
Monthly data traffic per subscriber
Downlink: 760 MB
Uplink: 86.3 MB
Total: 846 MB
564
626
709
883
1018
1251
1430
1799
2063
2425
2528
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2010.06
2010.09
2010.12
2011.03
2011.06
2011.09
2011.12
2012.03
2012.06
2012.09
2012.12
(bps)
One subscriber
average traffic
+11%
+25%
+15%
+23%
+14%
+13%
77% increase
for a year
+26%
+15%
+18%
+4%

7. Operator Technology Frequency
band
Bandwidth
2012
Total BW
2012
Bandwidth
2015f
Total BW
2015f
NTT DOCOMO
61.5 M subs
WCDMA 800MHz 10 MHz 45 MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz
1.7GHz 20 MHz - MHz
2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz
FD-LTE 700MHz - MHz 25 MHz 10 MHz 65 MHz
800MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz
1.5GHz 15 MHz 15 MHz
1.7GHz - MHz 20 MHz
2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz
KDDI
37.7 M subs
CDMA2000
(1x+EVDO)
800MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHz
2.1GHz 10 MHz - MHz
FD-LTE
(incl. pico)
700 MHz - MHz 30 MHz 10 MHz 50 MHz
800MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz
1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz
2.1GHz 10 MHz 20 MHz
Softbank
32.5 M subs
WCDMA
* DC-HSPA
900MHz 5 MHz 30 MHz 5 MHz 25 MHz
1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz
2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz
FD-LTE 900MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz
2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz
eAccess
4.3 M subs
W-CDMA 1.7GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHz
FD-LTE 700 MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz
1.7GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz
Total Bandwidth 165 MHz 205 MHz
WCP AXGP (TD-LTE) 2.5GHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz
UQ WiMAX > WIMAX 2.1 2.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz
http://www6.atwiki.jp/k-p/PairedSpectrumUnpaired

8. Thailand: The number of 3G smart phones
trend/forecast
Source: Thailand Telecommunications Report Q2 2013
Business Monitor international (BMI)

9. If 3G 2100 MHz auction did not happen,
Thai Telecommunication Industry will suffer spectrum crisis…
There were 45 MHz for mobile broadband
From Cisco research,
we may assume 10x data traffic demand in Y2018
Then we need 10x of spectrum or 450 MHz!!!
Y2012
Y2018

10. Approximately 3x capacity gain
What can we do??
1. Increase Spectrum 2. WCDMA  OFDMA
4. WiFi Off load
6. Beam forming
3. Densification & Small Cell
5. MIMO
Need another 3.3x

11. Thailand Mobile Broadband Spectrum
Year Total Bandwidth
2012  CAT 850 MHz [15 MHz]
 DTAC 850 MHz [10 MHz]
 AIS 900 MHz [ 5 MHz]
 TOT 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]
45 MHz
2013  AWN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]
 RF 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]
 DTN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]
90 MHz
2014 - 2018  Auction 1800 MHz [75 MHz]
 Auction 900 MHz [17.5 MHz]
 Deduct 30 MHz to maintain 2G
(10MHz x 3 operators)
152.5 MHz

12. … beyond 2018
 700 MHz
 2.3 GHz
 2.6 GHz
 …

13. Thank you