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Germany
1.
German Economy Lecture „Economía
Española y Mundial“ Barcelona, 18th of October, 2010
2.
What is the
first thing coming into your mind about Germany? 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 2
3.
Content
Page A. Introduction: Key Facts and Figures 3 B. Significant Aspects of the German Economy 5 B.1 Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector 6 B.2 Germany as the Exportnation 7 B.3 Governmental Activities during Financial Crisis 8 B.4 Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure 9 C. Summary and Future Prospects 10 C.1 Position in Global Economy (SWOT) 11 C.2 Economic Outlook 12 D. Sources 13 Contact/ Team 14 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 3
4.
A.
Introduction 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 4
5.
Domestic demand supports
German Economy: Germany expects its highest annual growth since 1991 Key Fact Overview Economic Growth (GDP) Economic Growth (GDP) Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR] Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR] Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%] Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%] • GDP is expected to grow by nearly 3,5 Import 2010; Export 9E+0 Agr. & 1.000. Constr. percent in 2010 5 000,0 Forest 2008; 2009; 5% • Domestic demand can be seen as „the 8E+0 7E+0 1E+0 1% 8E+0 5 5 6 5 Industry engine“ 22% • Inflation around +1% • Growth expected to slow down in 2011 (+2%) 08 09 FC 10 08 09 FC 10 2,5% 1,3% Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit Service Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit 3% 72% • Unemployment decreased to now 6,8% (August 2010) • Strong German „Mittelstand“ • Fiscal deficit ratio is expected to decrease from • Main goods: Automotive, Machinery, -5% 3,8% to 2,7% in 2010 Chemical Products FC 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 5
6.
B.
Significant aspects of the German Economy 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 6
7.
B.1
Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 7
8.
German economy develops
into a service based country – offering high level services Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector Big Industry Big Industry Medium Size and Small Industry Medium Size and Small Industry Service Sector Service Sector • Main companies and sectors • Efficiency and quality • Changing into a „Service Society“ • Traditional market contraction • Competitive Supply and different • Composition work system • Importance of immaterial factor and Research and Development 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 8
9.
B.2
Germany as the Exportnation 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 9
10.
After China, Germany
is the 2nd biggest exportnation in the World – that meant 803,2 Billion Euros income from the export in 2009 German Exports Exported goods and services 2009 Exported goods and services 2009 Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR] Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR] Top 10 Export Partners Top 10 Export Partners [% in ref. to the total] [% in ref. to the total] Vehicles; France, 10,3 % 17,4% ("#""" United States, 8,8 % '$#""" Other; 48,7% Machinery; 12,5% '"#""" United Kingdom, 8,3 % &$#""" &"#""" Italy, 7,2 % %$#""" %"#""" Netherlands, 6,2 % Chemicals; 11,4% $$#""" $"#""" Belgium, 5,6 % Metals; 5,6% !$#""" Electrical Austria, 5,4 % machinery; !"#""" 4,4% Spain, 5 % • Main companies and sectors Switzerland, 3,8 % • Traditional market contraction China, 3, 2% 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 10
11.
B.3
Governmental activities during Financial Crisis 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 11
12.
Merkel, Steinbrück and
other politicians initiated massive governmental programs to save banks, the Euro and German Economy Timeline Governmental Programs Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 12
13.
Positive Development and
Forecasts of main indicators acknowledge succesful management in companies and politics during economic crisis Development of selected Indicators Unemployment Rate [%] Unemployment Rate [%] Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR] Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR] Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR] Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR] Positive Development 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 13
14.
B.4
Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 14
15.
Governmental systems and
activities provide a basis for stability and health and a flexible, future-oriented economy Social System, Education and Infrastructure Social System Social System Education Education Infrastructure Infrastructure • Health Insurance • Decisional and legislative structure • Transport • Long-term care insurance • Academical Career • Health • Pension Insurance • University, Research and Development • Work Accident Insurance • Unemployment Insurance 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 15
16.
C.
Summary and Future Prospects 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 16
17.
C.1
Position in Global Economy 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 17
18.
Although German economy
is strong and in a leading position, Germany has to deal with some very serious weaknesses and threats… SWOT Analysis Strenghts Strenghts Weaknesses Weaknesses • High innovation rate/ high skilled labour • Few natural ressources • Strong export • Demographic change (many old people, less children) • Price stability, low inflation • High public deficit • High investments in Research and Development Opportunities Opportunities Threats Threats • Euro-zone • Outsourcing • Human capital mobility • High dependence on external markets • Member of European Union and World Trade Organization • Dependence on energy and oil supply 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 18
19.
C.2
Economic Outlook 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 19
20.
Due to high
domestic and external demand the german engine will keep working in 2011 Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Recovery 2010/ 2011 Brisk foreign Increasing Increasing Rising export Rising Profits demand Investments Industrial Output Positive employment trend Higher Rising consumer Positive disposable income spending economic growth Economic stimulus packages Source: German Information Centre Pretoria – „Economic situation in Germany in August 2010“ 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 20