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German Economy

Lecture „Economía Española y Mundial“




Barcelona, 18th of October, 2010
What is the first thing coming into your mind about Germany?




18. Oktober 2010   © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   2
Content                                                                                                    Page


   A.     Introduction: Key Facts and Figures                                                                 3

   B.     Significant Aspects of the German Economy                                                           5
          B.1 Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector                                                        6
          B.2 Germany as the Exportnation                                                                     7
          B.3 Governmental Activities during Financial Crisis                                                 8
          B.4 Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure                                                    9

   C.     Summary and Future Prospects                                                                        10
          C.1 Position in Global Economy (SWOT)                                                               11
          C.2 Economic Outlook                                                                                12

   D.     Sources                                                                                             13

          Contact/ Team                                                                                       14




18. Oktober 2010        © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner      3
A.        Introduction




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   4
Domestic demand supports German Economy: Germany expects its highest
annual growth since 1991


                                                                     Key Fact Overview

              Economic Growth (GDP)
              Economic Growth (GDP)                        Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR]
                                                           Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR]                 Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%]
                                                                                                                    Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%]


 • GDP is expected to grow by nearly 3,5                             Import    2010;          Export
                                                                               9E+0                                    Agr. &
                                                                                                       1.000.                                     Constr.
 percent in 2010                                                                 5                     000,0           Forest
                                                             2008;
                                                                       2009;                                                                       5%
 • Domestic demand can be seen as „the                       8E+0
                                                                       7E+0
                                                                                       1E+0                             1%
                                                                                                8E+0
                                                               5
                                                                         5
                                                                                         6
                                                                                                  5                                                     Industry
 engine“                                                                                                                                                  22%
 • Inflation around +1%
 • Growth expected to slow down in 2011
 (+2%)                                                        08        09     FC 10    08      09     FC 10



      2,5%         1,3%                                        Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit                       Service
                                                               Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit
                                         3%                                                                           72%

                                                        • Unemployment decreased to now 6,8%
                                                        (August 2010)                                             • Strong German „Mittelstand“
                                                        • Fiscal deficit ratio is expected to decrease from       • Main goods: Automotive, Machinery,
                              -5%                       3,8% to 2,7% in 2010                                      Chemical Products
                                          FC
       2007        2008       2009       2010


Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung
18. Oktober 2010               © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                                    5
B.        Significant aspects of the German Economy




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   6
B.1       Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   7
German economy develops into a service based country – offering high level
services


                                               Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector

              Big Industry
              Big Industry                        Medium Size and Small Industry
                                                  Medium Size and Small Industry                                         Service Sector
                                                                                                                         Service Sector




 • Main companies and sectors                   • Efficiency and quality                              • Changing into a „Service Society“
 • Traditional market contraction               • Competitive Supply and different                    • Composition
                                                work system
                                                                                                      • Importance of immaterial factor and Research and
                                                                                                      Development




18. Oktober 2010           © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                                8
B.2       Germany as the Exportnation




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   9
After China, Germany is the 2nd biggest exportnation in the World – that meant
803,2 Billion Euros income from the export in 2009


                                                                           German Exports

     Exported goods and services 2009
     Exported goods and services 2009                                       Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR]
                                                                            Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR]        Top 10 Export Partners
                                                                                                                      Top 10 Export Partners
           [% in ref. to the total]
            [% in ref. to the total]

                                Vehicles;                                                                             France, 10,3 %
                                 17,4%
                                                             ("#"""                                                   United States, 8,8 %
                                                             '$#"""
  Other; 48,7%                              Machinery;
                                             12,5%           '"#"""                                                   United Kingdom, 8,3 %
                                                             &$#"""
                                                             &"#"""                                                   Italy, 7,2 %
                                                             %$#"""
                                                             %"#"""                                                   Netherlands, 6,2 %
                                                Chemicals;
                                                  11,4%      $$#"""
                                                             $"#"""                                                   Belgium, 5,6 %
                                   Metals; 5,6%              !$#"""
                   Electrical
                                                                                                                      Austria, 5,4 %
                   machinery;                                !"#"""
                     4,4%
                                                                                                                      Spain, 5 %
 • Main companies and sectors
                                                                                                                      Switzerland, 3,8 %
 • Traditional market contraction
                                                                                                                      China, 3, 2%



18. Oktober 2010                   © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                           10
B.3       Governmental activities during Financial Crisis




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   11
Merkel, Steinbrück and other politicians initiated massive governmental
programs to save banks, the Euro and German Economy


                                                        Timeline Governmental Programs




Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung
18. Oktober 2010               © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   12
Positive Development and Forecasts of main indicators acknowledge succesful
management in companies and politics during economic crisis


                                                 Development of selected Indicators

            Unemployment Rate [%]
            Unemployment Rate [%]                        Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR]
                                                         Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR]                Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR]
                                                                                                           Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR]




                                                                Positive Development




18. Oktober 2010        © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                       13
B.4       Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   14
Governmental systems and activities provide a basis for stability and health
and a flexible, future-oriented economy


                                             Social System, Education and Infrastructure

                   Social System
                   Social System                                          Education
                                                                          Education                                         Infrastructure
                                                                                                                             Infrastructure




 • Health Insurance                                     • Decisional and legislative structure                • Transport
 • Long-term care insurance                             • Academical Career                                   • Health
 • Pension Insurance                                    • University, Research and Development
 • Work Accident Insurance
 • Unemployment Insurance




18. Oktober 2010           © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                   15
C.        Summary and Future Prospects




18. Oktober 2010   © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   16
C.1       Position in Global Economy




18. Oktober 2010    © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   17
Although German economy is strong and in a leading position, Germany has to
deal with some very serious weaknesses and threats…


                                                                      SWOT Analysis

                                     Strenghts
                                     Strenghts                                                                     Weaknesses
                                                                                                                   Weaknesses


 • High innovation rate/ high skilled labour                                           • Few natural ressources
 • Strong export                                                                       • Demographic change (many old people, less children)
 • Price stability, low inflation                                                      • High public deficit
 • High investments in Research and Development




                                    Opportunities
                                    Opportunities                                                                    Threats
                                                                                                                     Threats


 • Euro-zone                                                                           • Outsourcing
 • Human capital mobility                                                              • High dependence on external markets
 • Member of European Union and World Trade Organization                               • Dependence on energy and oil supply




18. Oktober 2010              © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                 18
C.2       Economic Outlook




18. Oktober 2010   © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner   19
Due to high domestic and external demand the german engine will keep
working in 2011


                                                                               Economic Outlook
   Macroeconomic Recovery 2010/ 2011




                                          Brisk foreign                                              Increasing                 Increasing
                                                                      Rising export                                                             Rising Profits
                                           demand                                                  Investments              Industrial Output




                                            Positive
                                       employment trend

                                                                         Higher                   Rising consumer               Positive
                                                                   disposable income                 spending               economic growth
                                            Economic
                                       stimulus packages




Source: German Information Centre Pretoria – „Economic situation in Germany in August 2010“
18. Oktober 2010                         © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner                                    20

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Germany

  • 1. German Economy Lecture „Economía Española y Mundial“ Barcelona, 18th of October, 2010
  • 2. What is the first thing coming into your mind about Germany? 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 2
  • 3. Content Page A. Introduction: Key Facts and Figures 3 B. Significant Aspects of the German Economy 5 B.1 Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector 6 B.2 Germany as the Exportnation 7 B.3 Governmental Activities during Financial Crisis 8 B.4 Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure 9 C. Summary and Future Prospects 10 C.1 Position in Global Economy (SWOT) 11 C.2 Economic Outlook 12 D. Sources 13 Contact/ Team 14 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 3
  • 4. A. Introduction 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 4
  • 5. Domestic demand supports German Economy: Germany expects its highest annual growth since 1991 Key Fact Overview Economic Growth (GDP) Economic Growth (GDP) Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR] Export and Import 2008 – 2010 [Bil. EUR] Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%] Added Value GDP by Sectors 2009 [%] • GDP is expected to grow by nearly 3,5 Import 2010; Export 9E+0 Agr. & 1.000. Constr. percent in 2010 5 000,0 Forest 2008; 2009; 5% • Domestic demand can be seen as „the 8E+0 7E+0 1E+0 1% 8E+0 5 5 6 5 Industry engine“ 22% • Inflation around +1% • Growth expected to slow down in 2011 (+2%) 08 09 FC 10 08 09 FC 10 2,5% 1,3% Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit Service Unemployment and Fiscal Deficit 3% 72% • Unemployment decreased to now 6,8% (August 2010) • Strong German „Mittelstand“ • Fiscal deficit ratio is expected to decrease from • Main goods: Automotive, Machinery, -5% 3,8% to 2,7% in 2010 Chemical Products FC 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 5
  • 6. B. Significant aspects of the German Economy 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 6
  • 7. B.1 Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 7
  • 8. German economy develops into a service based country – offering high level services Strenghts in Industry and Service Sector Big Industry Big Industry Medium Size and Small Industry Medium Size and Small Industry Service Sector Service Sector • Main companies and sectors • Efficiency and quality • Changing into a „Service Society“ • Traditional market contraction • Competitive Supply and different • Composition work system • Importance of immaterial factor and Research and Development 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 8
  • 9. B.2 Germany as the Exportnation 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 9
  • 10. After China, Germany is the 2nd biggest exportnation in the World – that meant 803,2 Billion Euros income from the export in 2009 German Exports Exported goods and services 2009 Exported goods and services 2009 Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR] Total exports 2009-2010 [Mio. EUR] Top 10 Export Partners Top 10 Export Partners [% in ref. to the total] [% in ref. to the total] Vehicles; France, 10,3 % 17,4% ("#""" United States, 8,8 % '$#""" Other; 48,7% Machinery; 12,5% '"#""" United Kingdom, 8,3 % &$#""" &"#""" Italy, 7,2 % %$#""" %"#""" Netherlands, 6,2 % Chemicals; 11,4% $$#""" $"#""" Belgium, 5,6 % Metals; 5,6% !$#""" Electrical Austria, 5,4 % machinery; !"#""" 4,4% Spain, 5 % • Main companies and sectors Switzerland, 3,8 % • Traditional market contraction China, 3, 2% 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 10
  • 11. B.3 Governmental activities during Financial Crisis 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 11
  • 12. Merkel, Steinbrück and other politicians initiated massive governmental programs to save banks, the Euro and German Economy Timeline Governmental Programs Source: destatis - Statistisches Bundesamt; GfK – Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 12
  • 13. Positive Development and Forecasts of main indicators acknowledge succesful management in companies and politics during economic crisis Development of selected Indicators Unemployment Rate [%] Unemployment Rate [%] Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR] Gross Domestic Product [Bill. EUR] Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR] Foreign Trade Balance [Bill. EUR] Positive Development 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 13
  • 14. B.4 Social Systems, Education and Infrastructure 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 14
  • 15. Governmental systems and activities provide a basis for stability and health and a flexible, future-oriented economy Social System, Education and Infrastructure Social System Social System Education Education Infrastructure Infrastructure • Health Insurance • Decisional and legislative structure • Transport • Long-term care insurance • Academical Career • Health • Pension Insurance • University, Research and Development • Work Accident Insurance • Unemployment Insurance 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 15
  • 16. C. Summary and Future Prospects 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 16
  • 17. C.1 Position in Global Economy 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 17
  • 18. Although German economy is strong and in a leading position, Germany has to deal with some very serious weaknesses and threats… SWOT Analysis Strenghts Strenghts Weaknesses Weaknesses • High innovation rate/ high skilled labour • Few natural ressources • Strong export • Demographic change (many old people, less children) • Price stability, low inflation • High public deficit • High investments in Research and Development Opportunities Opportunities Threats Threats • Euro-zone • Outsourcing • Human capital mobility • High dependence on external markets • Member of European Union and World Trade Organization • Dependence on energy and oil supply 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 18
  • 19. C.2 Economic Outlook 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 19
  • 20. Due to high domestic and external demand the german engine will keep working in 2011 Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Recovery 2010/ 2011 Brisk foreign Increasing Increasing Rising export Rising Profits demand Investments Industrial Output Positive employment trend Higher Rising consumer Positive disposable income spending economic growth Economic stimulus packages Source: German Information Centre Pretoria – „Economic situation in Germany in August 2010“ 18. Oktober 2010 © German Economy – Battistini, Klein, Kürten, Lüdemann, Matolcsy, Ragno, Weidner 20