Slides from the April 2011 Badolato Speaker Series event

1. Keeping U.S. Intelligence Effective:
The Need for a Revolution in
Intelligence Affairs

2. Intelligence & 9/11
• 9/11 perceived as an intelligence failure
• Many studies, government reports, books, and
articles published concerning the need for
intelligence reform
– “Connecting the dots”
• Many reform initiatives have not produced the
desired results

3. • My research experience
– 2000-2005: National Intelligence Council (NIC) Project
– 2003-2004: Future of the Internet Project
– 2005: Landscapes Project
– 2005-2006: Future of Intelligence Analysis Project
– 2005-2010: IC Centers of Academic Excellence
• Ideal vantage point for thinking about the kinds
of problems facing the U.S. intelligence enterprise
• Heard the term “RIA” mentioned during a
meeting

4. Published March 2011

5. Revolutions
• Periodically occur in all areas of human endeavor
when conditions change so significantly that
traditional methods of doing business are
rendered obsolete
• Examples
– Information Revolution
– The Revolution in Military Affairs
– Biotechnical Revolution
– An Islamist Revolution?
• Revolutions are important!
– New winners and losers

6. Recognizing Revolutions
• Four questions (from Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign
Affairs (March/April 1996)
1) Will emerging developments in military affairs
change the appearance of combat?
2) Will these developments change the structure of
armies?
3) Will they lead to the rise of new military elites?
4) Will they alter countries’ power positions?
• To the extent answers are “yes,” a Revolution in
Military Affairs was occurring.

7. Cohen’s Conclusion
“Reflection on each of these *four questions+
suggests that this is the eve of a far-reaching
change in warfare whose outlines are only
dimly visible but real nonetheless. (emphasis
added)”
- Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,”
Foreign Affairs 75/2 (March/April 1996).

8. Testing for an RIA
• Four questions (adapted from Cohen’s RMA
questions)
1. Will developments in the intelligence enterprise
change how intelligence is developed and used
(process)?
2. Will developments change the structure of the U.S.
intelligence community (structure)?
3. Will developments lead to the rise of new elites in
the intelligence community (skill sets)?
4. Will developments significantly effect the national
security of countries that fail to embrace them
(effect)?

9. Structure
COLD WAR TODAY
•Single major threat •Many threats
•Threats are states •Threats are states, nonstate
actors, global trends…
•Emphasis on learning secrets •Emphasis on solving mysteries
and learning secrets
•Emphasis on technical means •Emphasis on human intelligence
•Most information classified •Open source revolution
•Greatest danger is large scale •Greatest danger is small scale
nuclear attack attack by terrorists with WMDs
•Intelligence used for national •Intelligence used for national,
security regional & global security

10. Process
COLD WAR TODAY
•Most $$ to technical collection More $$ to human collection
agencies
•Nature of threat gave most $$ Nature of threat requires more
to DoD $$ to non-DoD agencies
•Each agency had clear mission New missions don’t fit old
structure
•Need for information security Need for extensive knowledge
fostered stovepiping sharing

11. Skill Sets
COLD WAR TODAY
•Knowledge is power: keep it to •Knowledge sharing is power
yourself
•Technology the concern of •Everyone must understand
well-defined organizations and certain technologies, both to
personnel analyze issues and to conduct
day-to-day operations

12. An RIA is Needed
• The answer to all four questions is “yes.” An RIA
appears to be needed (but is not yet occurring)
– The intelligence process should change.
– The organizational structure to support the process should
change.
– Future elites in the intelligence community should possess
new skills.
– Failure to adapt will have serious consequences.

13. Mapping the RIA
• Thomas Kuhn and The Structure of Scientific
Revolutions (first edition by University of Chicago Press, 1962)
– Paradigms and paradigm shifts
• Must first map the current or “traditional”
intelligence paradigm
– Solving puzzles using secret information
• Puzzles have answers (as opposed to mysteries)
– All raw intelligence obtained through SIGINT,
GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT

14. Intelligence Requirements in Today’s
Security Environment
• North Korea
• Iran, China, and other functioning states
• Pakistan, Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, & other
failing or failed states
• Al Qaeda and other transnational terrorist groups
• HIV/AIDS, Avian Flu, SARS and other Infectious
Diseases
• Biopathogens

15. A New Intelligence Paradigm
• New paradigm must include the old one. Both must
function without creating “destructive interference.”
• New paradigm must solve puzzles, mysteries, and
“adaptive interpretations.”
• Adaptive interpretations apply to transnational
issues/threats
– SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT not
sufficient – need new category of “trusted” information as
well as classified and open source information
– Transnational threats require transnational solutions

16. Conclusions
• Many intelligence reforms have not met expectations
because they clash with the traditional paradigm.
– Bureaucratic inertia & immersion in traditional paradigm
– Competing needs, such as information sharing vs. security
concerns
• The traditional paradigm remains necessary, but it is not
sufficient to keep U.S. intelligence effective.
• A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is needed.
– Actors that embrace the RIA will gain advantages over those
that continue with traditional practices
• Information flows and new collection methods are at the
heart of the RIA. Analytic techniques must change
accordingly.

18. Public Health and
Homeland Security
Badolato Distinguished Speakers Series
Towson University
April 29, 2011

19. Public Health Today
Population Based Care
• Violence Prevention • Terrorism
• MRSA – Chemical
• Smallpox – Biological
– Nuclear
• Chagus Disease
– Radiological Dispersion
• West Nile Virus
• Pandemic/Avian Flu
• Obesity
• Disaster Preparedness
• Health Disparities
http://www.whatispublichealth.org/impact/today.html

20. Public Health
• Public health assessments
• Information sharing
• Triage priorities from a public health
perspective
• Casualty distribution – knowledge of
resources, development of procedures
• Disaster preparedness- public motivation
(Landesman et al., 2003, p. 4)

21. Federal Legislation
• Homeland Security Act of 2002
– Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5
• National
• Government & Private Sectors
• Crisis and consequence
• DHS Secretary to manage incidents
• Rubin & Harrald (2006)
– National Response Plan
– National Incident Management System

22. Shared Responsibility
• National Culture of Preparedness(Pres. George W. Bush, 5 OCT 2007)
• National Strategy for Homeland Security
– All levels of government
– Private sector
– Communities
– All citizens

23. Community Preparedness Activities
• Citizen Corps
– The mission of Citizen Corps is to harness the power of every individual through
education, training, and volunteer service to make communities safer, stronger, and
better prepared to respond to the threats of terrorism, crime, public health issues, and
disasters of all kinds. http://www.citizencorps.gov/about/
• Medical Reserve Corps
– The mission of the MRC is to engage volunteers to strengthen public health, emergency
response and community resiliency. http://www.medicalreservecorps.gov/About
• National Disaster Medical System
– It is the mission of the National Disaster Medical System to temporarily supplement
Federal, Tribal, State and Local capabilities by funding, organizing, training, equipping,
deploying and sustaining a specialized and focused range of public health and medical
capabilities. http://www.phe.gov/preparedness/responders/ndms/Pages/default.aspx

24. Towson University’s MRC
Baltimore
County
Health
Department
10th Medical
Regiment
(Military-
Maryland
Defense
based MRC) Towson
University
Force

25. Towson University – Thinking Outside
• Students, faculty, staff, community
• Partner agencies
• Education and drills
• Student education
– Integrated Homeland Security Management
• Off campus student projects
– College of Health Professions
• Department of Nursing: On and off campus activities

26. TU, Students, and Community
• Student Projects with IHSM 633 (Disaster
Response and Community Health)
– Disaster plan in Dunbar High School*
– Disaster plan in a church in northern Japan*
– Disaster notification plan in a community
– Education for rural older adults in W. VA.
– Disaster preparedness for an at-risk population in West
Baltimore
– Disaster plan for the Baltimore City Public Safety Center
– Disaster education at Johns Hopkins Hospital*
– Disaster preparedness at a senior center on Long Island
*Places where disasters occurred after our planning.

27. TU, Students, and Community
• Projects within the Department of Nursing’s
Graduate Program
– Disaster education with the Bykota Senior Center
– Disaster education with the Our Lady of Grace
Parish’s Youth Theater Group
– Disaster education in a local elementary school in
Baltimore City

28. Emergency Preparedness Drill
Thanks to Dr. Agley
for the graphics!

29. Tornado on Campus
Situation: Tornado on York Rd from I-695 to Baltimore City. Campus affected, multiple
casualties, local authorities overwhelmed, MDDF deployed in Burdick Hall.
Dr. Alves, ED Physician & Dr. Ogle, Nursing Faculty

30. Nursing Student & Our Lady of Grace Actors

31. Nursing Students & Our Lady of Grace Actors

32. Our Lady of Grace Actors and a Mom

33. Maryland National Guard: Support and Education

34. Nursing Students and MDDF Chaplain

35. Evacuation Education at Towson Center

36. MDDF, Best Ambulance, Nursing Students
Some numbers:
•1000 people
•Close to 400
Nursing students
•Faculty
•Nursing
•Health Science
•Education
•Community partners
•Military partners
•State agencies
•Children from 11
different school districts
•Students from campus
•Seniors from Bykota
Senior Center
Public Health Planning, Preparedness, Education

37. Simulation to Real Time Public Health Issue: Flu!

38. References
• Rubin, C. B., & Harrald, J. R. (2006). National response plan, the national incident management system,
and the federal response plan. In D. G. Kamien (Ed.). The McGraw-Hill homeland security handbook (pp.
677-688). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
• Landesman, L. Y., Malilay, J., Bissel, R. J., et al.,Becker, S. M., Roberts, L., & Ascher, M. S. (2003). Roles
and responsibilities of public health in disaster preparedness and response. In L. F. Novick, J. S. Marr (Eds.).
Public health issues in disaster preparedness: Focus on bioterrorism (pp. 1-56). Sudbury, MA: Jones and
Bartlett.
• Homeland Security Council. (2007). National strategy for homeland security. Retrieved from
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nat_strat_homelandsecurity_2007.pdf

39. The Economics of
Homeland Security
Daraius Irani

40. The Department of Homeland Security
The Department of Homeland Security

41. The Department of Homeland Security
The Department of Homeland Security
Sept. 11th, 2001 Terrorist attacks
against the U.S. at the World Trade
2002
Center and the Pentagon
Nov. 25th, 2002 President Bush signs the Homeland Security Act creating
the DHS. The department will come to employ more than 190,000
people
2003
March 1st, 2003 22 existing agencies from other cabinet
level departments are merged together form the first DHS
2003 Creation of The Bureau of Customs and Border Protection
focus on security at and between the ports-of-entry along the
border
2003 Formation of The Bureau of Immigration and Customs
Enforcement. Presently employs more than 20,000 people and
is the 2nd largest investigative agency in the Federal Government
DHS.gov

42. Original Agencies
Many existing agencies were merged to form the DHS
The largest of which are:
• The U.S. Customs Service • Office for Domestic
(Treasury) Preparedness (Justice)
• The Immigration and • The Federal Emergency
Naturalization Service (Justice) Management Agency (FEMA)
• The Transportation Security • National Domestic
Administration Preparedness Office (FBI)
(Transportation) • U.S. Coast Guard
• Federal Law Enforcement (Transportation)
Training Center (Treasury) • U.S. Secret Service (Treasury)
DHS.gov

43. DHS Directives
• Border and Transportation Security
• Protection of Critical Infrastructure
• Emergency Preparedness and Response
• Domestic Counterterrorism
• Intelligence and Warning
• Defense Against Catastrophic Threats
2010 Budget Distribution Intel.
Border and Protection Emerg Dom
Transportation Security of Infra. Prep. Count.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FAS.org

44. DHS Employment and Budget
200 60
National Employment (Thousands)
180
160 50
Billions of Dollars
140 40
120
100 30
80
60 20
40 10
20
0 0
2001
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
National Employment in Thousands by DHS
Billion of budget $
OPM and DHS

45. Before and After DHS Formation
Spending on % of nominal Private sector Private sector
Year
Homeland Security GDP labor inputs capital inputs
2001 $56 Billion 0.55 $26.5B $9.4B
2005 $99.5 Billion 0.80 $28.7B $16.6 B
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

46. Industry Growth as a Result of DHS
• Chemical, biological, and radiological detection
• Border, rail, seaport, industrial, and nuclear plant
security
• Computer and human resources experts
• Boat manufacturers for the Coast Guard
• Information and integrated technology
companies
• Management consulting firms
USA Today

47. THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND MARYLAND

48. DHS Employment
20,000 4,500
18,000 4,000
16,000 3,500
MD and VA Levels
14,000 3,000
D.C. Levels
12,000
2,500
10,000
2,000
8,000
6,000 1,500
4,000 1,000
2,000 500
0 0
DC Virginia Maryland
OPM Employment Cubes

49. RESI Analysis of DHS Impacts on Maryland 2002-2010
Employment
Direct Indirect Induced Total
1,481 684 4,480 6,645
Labor Income
Direct Indirect Induced Total
$35,602,852 $31,937,779 $184,041,219 $251,581,852
Value Added to GDP
Total
$340,800,185

50. Maryland Procurement from DHS
Procurement Contracts in 2009:
• $14,559,856,536 (U.S. total)
• $1,674,925,917 (Maryland total)
• 12% (Maryland share of U.S. total)
Salaries and Wages in 2008:
• $12,333,918,562 (U.S. total)
• $255,569,717 (Maryland total)
• 2.1% (Maryland share of U.S. total)
ChooseMaryland.org

51. Top 10 FY2010 DHS Contractors
Rank Vendor Name Dollars Obligated
1 International Business Systems (IBM) $557,280,986
2 Lockheed Martin Corporation $427,791,355
3 Unisys Corporation $400,757,376
4 Science Applications International $347,251,403
Corporation
5 Bollinger Shipyards Lockport, LLC $322,491,842
6 Computer Sciences Corporation $311,479,779
7 General Dynamics Advanced Information $311,304,859
Systems
8 Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. $244,373,784
9 L-3 Communications Corporation $236,877,693
10 The Boeing Company $207,544,578
Government Security News 2011

52. Maryland Higher Education
Multi-year awards ranging between $10 million
to $18 million
• Behavioral and sociological aspects of
terrorism at the University of Maryland
• High consequence event preparedness and
response at Johns Hopkins
FAS.org

53. DHS AND CYBER SECURITY

54. Information Technology in Maryland
• From 2009-2014 government spending is
expected to grow:
3.5% per year in general IT
8.1% a year in cyber security
• IT Employment Growth (2001-2008)
- Maryland: +3.3%
- National Average: -17.1%
• Computing Services in Maryland
+7.2% employment increase in mid-recession 2009
- Highest growth rate in the nation
Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development

55. Cyber Security and Maryland
UMBC
Maryland Department of Business & Economic Developmen

56. Federal Cyber Security Employment In Maryland
Military Installation =1000 employees
Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development