1. Rural Tourism Studio
South Coast, Oregon
David Beurle
Future iQ Partners
www.future-iq.com

2. Committed groups

3. Committed groups

4. Day 1 - Program
• Play Future Game
• Review Survey results
• Review assessment of key drivers
shaping the future
• Define plausible scenarios

5. SURVEY RESULTS
N = 71

9. ChartExport-62

10. What is
Scenario
Planning?
A tool best used to
embrace an uncertain
future
Explores a range of
plausible futures
Allows for the
consideration of
complex and
interrelated forces

13. Explore
Trends and
Implications
for tourism
industry
Develop
‘Drivers’
Shaping
South
Coast
Develop
four
plausible
scenarios
Implications
for the
South
Coast
Preferred
Future and
action
planning

14. Importance / Uncertainty matrix
Rate each driver on a 1 – 5 scale
(1=low; 5=high)
Driver
Importance
Uncertainty

15. RTS Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers
3.50
Global economic
volatility
Govt regulation
and funding
Uncertainty
3.00
Impact climate change and natural
disasters
Population change
Access to local
services
Cost of living
Land Use
Planning
Collaboration and
engagement
Energy costs
Regional transport
infrastructure
2.50
Local Economic
development
Lodging
Developments
Aging population
Mgt of natural
resources
Quality of
life
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Importance
Trained
Workforce
Regional recreation infrastructure
Access to communication
infrastructure
4.50
5.00

16. Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers
Ability to leverage our human capacity
Regional collaboration and engagement
Local economic development efforts
Suitably trained local workforce
Quality of life on South Coast
Local access to services such as Health Care
Tourism and economic infrastructure
Regional recreation infrastructure
Land use planning
Energy and fuel costs
Management of natural resources and biodiversity
Regional transport infrastructure
Lodging developments
Access to information and communication technology

17. Effective planning. collaboration
and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and skills.
Lack of critical
infrastructures
to support
viable tourism
industry
Well resourced
local tourism
and economic
infrastructures
Fragmented and
disjointed efforts with
conflicting priorities.

18. Scenario name and brief description_______________
Social Characteristics
Economic Characteristics
Environmental Characteristics

19. Scenario Group _______
Headline news for the following years…
2015
2020
2030

20. Regional
dimensions to
consider
(What would
tourism on
South Coast be
like in 2030?)
• Population
makeup/characteris
tics
• Distribution of
population
• Landscape and
visual impacts
• ‘Liveability’ and
quality of life
features
• Skills and
educational profiles
• Industry and
economic profiles

21. Timeline for scenario
formulation
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
6:30
6:45
7:15
7:25
7:30
Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)
Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)
Small group report back (10m)
Short scenario name (5m)
Return to main room ready to present

22. Timeline for scenario formulation
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
9:30
9:45
10:05
10:20
10:40
10:55
11:00
Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)
Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (20m)
Small group report back (15m)
Break into 3 groups – develop TBLP (20)
Small group report back (15m)
Short scenario name (5m)
Return to main room ready to present
Regional scenario formulation

23. Regional Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters
Scenario A
Scenario B
Tourism and economic infrastructure
Scenario D
Ability to leverage
decrease
human capacity
increase
decrease
Scenario C
increase

25. Resilience and vulnerability of
scenarios
How would we respond under ‘shocks’?
• What would happen to our communities and people?
• What would our economy do?
• Impacts on the environment?
Shocks?
• There is an economic double dip..
• Price of oil jumps dramatically

27. Context
Content

28. Regional Branding
•
•
•
•
Food and Tourism
Retail marketing within region and external
Highly successful and effective
Improves local agricultural base
www.westcorkleader.ie

29. Regional Branding
– “achieving competitive
advantage through the use
of the area’s unique image
& identity”
• LEADER programme
– integrated development
strategy
– dedicated resources
• West Cork
– Strong regional image
– Local resource potential

31. Food & Tourism Sector
• Importance to Local
Economy
• Local Resource Potential
• Sustainable Development
• Potential for Added Value
• Cultural Wealth
• People = Place = Product
• Owner-Managed

32. Timeframe
• 1995 Planning & Development
• 1996 Concept Launch
• 1998 Commercial Launch
• 2001 Subscription Income
• 2002 LEADER+

33. Geographic markets1
Tourism and Food members
50
%
45
40
35
30
All Tourism
25
Food
20
15
10
5
0
West Cork
Cork City
Rest of
Ireland
UK
Other

34. Full-Time Employment – Brand members
• Steady growth in
employment
reflects growing
– Membership
– Employment
at enterprise
level
900
800
Food full-time
700
Tourism full-time
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
• Increasing
importance of
employment in
food enterprises

35. Part-Time Employment – brand members
250
Food part-time
200
Tourism part-time
150
100
50
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
• Part-time
employment is
more in the
tourism industry
• Steady growth in
p/t employment
also reflects
growing
– Membership
– Employment
at enterprise
level

39. Martinborough – Waiarapa region
New Zealand – reinventing a town
• Rebuilding a
heritage town
• Building on
unique factor
and creating
unique tourism
experience
• One person
can make a
difference!

40. Unique town square and attractive
location

44. NZ Wine Trail

45. Corrigin – Case Study
‘Dog in the Ute’ – world
record holder
Town planning committee ‘Corrigin – Our
Future Committee’ decided to put Corrigin
on the map (founded by Leigh Hardingham)
• Created a world record attempt at
the number of ‘dogs in utes’ event.
• Had over 2000 entries
• Created national publicity
• Now national competition with Victoria

46. Corrigin Dog Cemetery

47. The Dog in the Ute Competition

48. Town entrance signs

49. INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE
AWARDS 1998
WINDMILL FLOUR – BRENDAN GRYLLS
Corrigin WA

50. Regional produce – yabbies

51. Wheatbelt Regional Cuisine

52. HYDEN – Case Study of a self-reliant and
entrepreneurial community

53. HYDEN – at the end of the rail-line
• 340 km east of
Perth – 4 hours
drive
• Population 600
• Settled in
1920’s
• Wheat and
grain farming
area – large
scale and
remote

54. ‘The Wave Rock Experience’
Creating a world famous tourism destination
• 2,700
million years
old natural
rock
formation
• This feature
measures
15 metres
high and
110 metres
around a
granite cliff

55. CREATING THE HYDEN TOURISM
DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
• In 1970’s, it began with
the establishment of a
caravan park, followed by
cabins, hire vans and has
now grown into the Wave
Rock Motel complex – a
$5 million facility.
• The Company has
promoted Wave Rock
such that it now attracts
130,000 people per year

56. ‘The Wave Rock
Experience’

57. Creating the next stage – an international
airport and lakeside resort!
Locals instigated construction of the Hyden Regional
Airport to provide access for international visitors who
have money, but not time.
The company shareholders have never taken a dividend –
they prefer to invest in their own community.

58. Hyden Business Development Company
• 23 local farmers have
each contributed
$8000 as registered
equal shares
• The company
supported the
establishment of 5 new
businesses in Hyden.

59. Impact and Benefits
• Tourism has generated 70 jobs
• The town has 100% full employment
• Over 80% of the tourism jobs employ
people under 30 year old
• Wave Rock Prime Beef – a quality driven
cooperative marketing initiative aimed at making
Hyden the ‘Beef Capital of the Wheatbelt’
• New tourism attractions - by young local
entrepreneurs, eg: Stargate Observatory, Steel
Fabricator, Supermarket

60. The Tin Horse Highway

61. Kulin Bush Races – Case Study
Kulin is a small country town (pop approx. 300)
about 4 hours drive east of Perth.
• It has created a major
tourist event – each
year in October they
hold the Kulin Bush
Races.
• Nearly 4,000 people
travel to Kulin and
stay for the race
weekend.

62. Shire Logo – creating the Bush
Races theme

63. Town entry sign

73. Kulin created the first Community
Bank in Western Australia

74. Newly built town water park

75. Committed groups

76. Ultimate Tourism Action Plan:
•
•
•
•
Tourism Planning / Action
Regional Promotion
Waldport & individual communities
Focus areas for tourism development
– Recreational
– Cultural
– Eco-friendly
– Natural resource
– Off season options

77. Tourism Planning / Action
• Planning events – cooperation and collaboration
• Teamwork – working together toward goals
• A plan would help define where limited dollars
should be spent. ..help define roles and illuminate
the ‘big picture”.
• Systemic processes for action – embedded in
daily work.
• As a region – highlighting strengths of each
community to create a regional package
• Tax options – regional infrastructure
improvements

78. Regional Promotion
•
•
•
•
Advertising and promotional vacation packages
Promote as a region – with limited dollars
Lack of cohesive branding
Identify strengthen, and better promote our assets
and work together as a broader community for the
greater success of everyone.
• With the values of the region – of preservation and
as a part of the Oregon coast.

80. Scenario A – Isolated
Intelligence
Community / social
• Well educated - Highly skilled
• All out here by ourselves
• No facilities, the restaurants are gone, hotels are gone – and no toilets
• Back to the future scenario – people were camping and hiking here a long time ago
• No one will be living here
• Isolated pockets of money and poverty index will go up
• Have to be a survivalist since no one’s coming to get you
Environmental
• Enviro research would be strong here
• People could see how the environment is being impacted
• Well preserved; not a lot of degradation
• Sometimes we don’t really understand the relations between public
Economy
• Would have guides
• Bush pilots would take people into this isolated, remote area
• Very green facilities with composting toilets
• High number of PhDs

81. Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for
All
Social
• Sustainable jobs & businesses
• One single Chamber for the entire region – or three working close together
• Health services have been increased; easier to get what you need locally
• Education & training is widely available
• A shared regional vision that everyone agrees to and uses
• We see ourselves entirely responsible and we drive the entire thing.
Economic
• Selling awareness of enjoyment of the resources that are here
• Natural resources have been preserved
• Activities are nature-based and diverse
• Businesses are historically and culturally based
Environmental
• Setting today is preserved; isn’t changed – looks
• USFS is an active partner instead of an agency that just shows up once in a while and sits
on a tower
• Physical connection between Waldport & Yachats – business districts are connected
• We involve and educate the tourist on our local ethic of environmental stewardship

82. Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t
want to live there
Social
• A lot of second homes; owners don’t contribute to community
• Aging communities
• Lack of health care; Lack of skilled people
• More hotels/more restaurants – but not one to take care of you
• Will have conflicting priorities – communities are still fighting one another,
• Regional health clinic – nurses are the only ones who will
• More independent and migratory -- every unit will have its own electricity and grow their
own food
Economic / Tourism
• No economies of scale; No one working together
• Opportunities – lots of land, no one to compete with
• Heliports for people to fly in
• Outsiders would own all of the tourism infrastructure ; locals would lose their
entrepreneurial spirit
Environment
• More trails, more opportunities to enjoy the nature since no one is here
• Energy – go back to the Old West, have to shoot the meat off the hoof, warm up your
house through firewood

83. Scenario D – Bring it on
Social
• Loosing population; Aging population
• Absentee owners
• Brain drain; youth are not coming back
• Haves and have nots are separate
• Lack of law enforcement; high crime
• Low paying jobs; Schools go away
• Decision from bottom up goes away; Inflexible; hard to recover from problems
• Loss of critical mass to support services
Environment
• As you lose human capital; decision making moves to the county or higher up
• Hard for locals to make change
• Look at resources who are managed by folks who aren’t here 
• At some point you wish for the tsunami
• More accidents
Tourism economy
• Fragmented or non-existent
• Lack of a skilled workforce; lack of jobs
• Empty buildings
• Islands of prosperity in a sea of poverty

84. Priority Actions 1-5 years
• Create a structure to move sustainable tourism
forward (18)
• Trail Development (13)
• New Event Creation (12)
• Marketing plan (11)
• Develop local food system and integration into
local culinary experience (8)
• Create a formal network for local businesses (5)