By Prof Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen Presented at 'UK Energy System in Transition: Technology, Infrastructure and Investment'; an event organised by the UK Energy Research Centre, ClimateXChange and the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation, on Tuesday 1 April 2014, 14.00-17.00, in Edinburgh, United Kingdom.

1. The role of bioenergy in Britain
UK Energy System in Transition: Technology, Infrastructure and Investment, Edinburgh, 1st April 2014
*pete.smith@abdn.ac.uk
Pete Smith1*, Andrew Lovett2, Jon Finch3, Dominic
Moran4, Gail Taylor5, Eric Casella6, Simon Taylor7,
Steven Firth7, Shifeng Wang1, Peter Alexander4, Chao
Wang7, Astley Hastings1, Mat Tallis5, Gilla Sunnenberg2,
Jon Hillier1, David Allinson7, Mohammed Quddus7,
James Morison6 & Iwona Cisowska3

2. Areas unsuitable for energy crops

3. Areas unsuitable for energy crops

4. Areas unsuitable for energy crops

5. Biomass supply from energy
crops
Current conditions

6. Biomass supply from energy
crops
Future conditions
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
2010 2020 2030 2050
MxgMg/ha
High
Medium
Low

7. Biomass supply from energy
crops
Highest yield
Exclusion
SRF
Miscanthus
SRC

8. Biomass supply from energy
crops
Dry Matter Yield
Mg ha-1
24

9. 10% of UK land area accounts for approx.
90% of the heat demand from homes
Non-heat energy demandHeat energy demand

10. Change in non-heat energy
demand – 2009-2050
Change in heat energy
demand – 2009-2050

11. Where is bioenergy economically
viable to meet demand?
Using an
optimisation model
to match supply and
demand – where is it
economic (from an
energy price
perspective) to meet
demand with
bioenergy?

12. Where is bioenergy economically
viable to meet demand?
Projections out to
2050 – no
consideration of farm
scale economics
Miscanthus SRC

13. Where is it viable to grow energy crops?
At a Miscanthus price
of £60 odt-1 and an
SRC price of £48 odt-
1, energy crops could
supply around 50 Pj
yr-1 (=1.6 Gw yr-1) in
GB.
Relatively small
increases in price, the
area (and thereby the
potential energy
supplied by biomass)
increases
dramatically.

14. 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Average % of Cropland used for Miscanthus or SRC in Future Climate
Scenarios
Lower Prices Variant Higher Prices Variant
Environmental impacts of energy
crops
Considerable regional variation in energy crop planting
compared to the national average rate

15. 0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
SRC
Miscanthus
Environmental impacts of energy
crops
Over time and with increased climate change the proportion of Miscanthus planting is
likely to increase and SRC decline.

16. Environmental impacts of energy
crops
Soil carbon change
from planted area

17. Greenhouse gas
emissions from
planted area
Miscanthus SRC
Environmental impacts of energy crops

18. Environmental impacts of energy crops
Projections out to
2050
Miscanthus SRC
Miscanthus SRC

19. Conclusions
• Energy crops can help to meet energy demands, but
feasibility depends of price paid for feedstock
• The location of the nearest power plant is critical - more
distributed power generation infrastructure is needed
• Distribution will vary between regions and through time
• Environmental impacts vary – soil carbon may increase
or decrease, and GHG emissions from crop management
varies among crops.
• Special issue of Global Change Biology Bioenergy
published in February 2014.