This document discusses global energy trends and alternatives to petroleum. It notes that global population and energy demand are rising rapidly. While unconventional oil and biofuels can help meet growing demand, they face challenges around environmental impacts, resource constraints, and high costs. Electricity and natural gas are also discussed as alternatives, but electricity generation is still heavily reliant on coal and natural gas. Significant technological advances and infrastructure build-outs would be needed for alternatives to fully replace petroleum on a large scale.

2. Tinker, 2012
Our Mission Today
 Energy, Economy and Environment
 Energy Supply
 Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
 Efficiency and Security

3. Tinker, 2012
Global Population and Energy
7,000 500
450
6,000
400
Population (millions)
5,000 350
4,000 300
Quads
250
3,000 200
2,000 150
100
1,000
50
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Population Primary Energy (Q)
http://www.eia.gov/iea/wecbtu.html

4. Tinker, 2012
OECD Non-OECD
Energy Demand Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
450 450
400 400
350 350
Other
300 300
Africa
250 250
Middle East
200 Other 200
Latin America
150 150 India
Europe OECD
100 100
50 United States 50 China
0 0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

5. Tinker, 2012
China vs. US
Year in which China: overtook / overtakes the United States
1999 01 03 05 07 09 2011 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Steel consumption 99 6.6
Mobile phone 01 3.3
Exports 07 1.3
Fixed investment 09 1.4
Manufacturing output 10 1.1
Energy consumption 10 1.1
Car sales 10 1.2
Patents granted
to residents 10 1.1
Retail sales 0.7 14
Imports 0.8 14
GDP at PPP* 0.8 16
GDP at market rates 0.5 18
Stockmarket cap. 0.3 20
Consumer spending 0.2 23
Defence spending 0.2 25
The Economist, 2011, Economic focus: how to get a date: December, p. 61. Sources: BP,CEIC; ITU; Thomson
Reuters; WIPO; World Bank; WFE; World Steel Association; The Economist estimates.
QAe70

6. Tinker, 2012
Energy and GDP
1980-2004
After: Koonin, 2008

7. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Economy and Oil Price
90
Oil Price
$ of the day
80
10.00 $ 2010
GDP Growth (% change on 2000 chained dollars)
70
8.00 Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush Clinton W Bush Obama
60
Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($)
6.00
50
4.00
40
2.00
30
0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20
-2.00
10
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037172&contentId=7068612
1970-1983 Arabian Light
-4.00 0
1984-2010 Brent dated
Year
Data: EIA and BP Statistical Analysis; US Department of Commerce

8. Tinker, 2012
Our Mission Today
 Energy, Economy and Environment
 Energy Supply
 Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
 Efficiency and Security

9. Tinker, 2012
U. S. Energy Flows
Net electricity 0.11
Solar 0.01 Imports
0.09 8.45 12.68
6.82 Electricity
Nuclear generation
8.45 39.97
Hydro 2.43 20.54
2.45 4.70
0.51
Wind Residential
0.51 11.48 9.18
0.31 0.08
Geothermal 0.2
0.35 1.17
4.99 0.49
4.61
0.1
Natural gas Commercial
23.84 8.58 6.86 Energy
3.20 services
0.01 0.57
3.35 42.15
0.06 0.10
Coal 8.14 Industrial
22.42 23.94 19.15
8.58
1.79
0.42
Biomass 2.03 0.02
3.88
0.46 0.67 0.83
Trans-
26.33 portation
Petroleum 27.86
6.96
37.13
(2008 Quads)
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
QAd8174

10. Tinker, 2012
U. S. Energy Flows
Net electricity 0.11
Imports
12.68
Electricity
generation
39.97
20.54
4.70
Residential
11.48 9.18
Foundational 1.17
4.61
Commercial
Energies 0.06
0.57
8.58
3.35
6.86 Energy
services
42.15
Coal Industrial
22.42 23.94 19.15
8.58
1.79
0.02
0.46
Trans-
26.33 portation
Petroleum 27.86
6.96
37.13
(2008 Quads)
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
QAd8174

11. Tinker, 2012
Coal
Powder
River Basin,
WY

12. Tinker, 2012
Coal
Parish
Plant, TX

13. Tinker, 2012
Coal
Coal Challenges
• Mining Impacts
• CO2
• Air Quality
• Mercury
• Fresh Water Parish
Plant, TX

14. Tinker, 2012
Long-Term Oil Supply
Resources and Production
140 140
NGLs
Unconventional oil
120 120 Crude oil - to be developed or found
Deepwater and Crude oil - currently producing fields
Ultra Deepwater
100 100
Production Cost, $ 2008
Coal to
Oil Shales Gas to Liquids
80 80
Mb/d
Liquids
Arctic
CO2EOR
60 60
EOR
Heavy Oil
& Bitumen
40 40
Other
Conven
20 Produced MENA -tional 20
Oil
0 0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2000 2008 2020 2030
Resources, Billion Barrels Annual Production
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

15. Fort McMurray Tinker, 2012
Alberta Oil Sands

16. Tinker, 2012
Oil Shales
North Dakota
Bakken

17. Tinker, 2012
US Oil Production
From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

18. Tinker, 2012
US Oil Production
Oil Challenges
• Conventional Production Plateau
• Limited Geographic Control
• Environmental Impact
• CO2 Emissions
• Public Perception and Policy
• Pipelines (?)
From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

19. Tinker, 2012
Oil Consumption
35
Per capita oil consumption (bbl/yr)
30
25
U.S.
20
15
10
5
China
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, CIA World Factbook, Census Bureaus, Marc Faber Limited, RJ Estimates
From Raymond James and Associates, Inc., August 2, 2010
QAd8173

20. Tinker, 2012
Global Demand
US and China Vehicle Sales
25
20
China
Million vehicles
U.S.
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Year
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, RJ Estimates, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
From Raymond James and Associates, Inc., August 2, 2010
QAd8173

21. Tinker, 2012
Transportation Demand by Region
North America Europe Asia Pacific
20 20 20
Marine
15 15 15
Aviation
Rail
Heavy duty 10
10 10
5 5 5
Light duty
0 0 0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

22. Tinker, 2012
Powertrain Technology in 2030
Millions of vehicles
350
Advanced: full hybrid,
plug-in hybrid, and
electric vehicles Hybrid and advanced vehicles
300
will gain share in all regions.
CNG
Diesel By 2030, they will account for
250 ~25% of global new-car sales.
200
150
Gasoline
100
50
0
North Europe Other China India Middle Latin Other
America OECD OECD East America Non-
OECD
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

23. Demand Tinker, 2012

24. Tinker, 2012
Alternatives
to Petroleum

25. Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels

26. Tinker, 2012
Biofuels
Carbohydrates to Liquid Hydrocarbons
Perennial Cellulosic
 Sorghum
 Switch Grass
 Miscanthus
 Shrub Willow

27. Tinker, 2012
Biofuels
Carbohydrates to Liquid Hydrocarbons
Biofuels ChallengesPerennial Cellulosic
 Sorghum
 Switch Grass
• Fresh Water Use  Miscanthus
Shrub Willow
• Land Access 
• Conversion Facilities
• Drought
• Scale

28. Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels
III. Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG)
I. Deliverability and access
IV. Electricity (Batteries)
IV. Charging today means coal, natural gas,
nuclear…

29. Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil

30. Tinker, 2012
Options to Oil
I. Unconventional Oil
II. Biofuels
III. Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG)
I. Deliverability and access
IV. Electricity (Batteries)
IV. Charging today means coal, natural gas,
nuclear…
V. Hydrogen (fuel cells)
V. Just ten years away!

31. Tinker, 2012
Electricity

32. Tinker, 2012
Electricity Demand
by Region by Sector
Thousands of terawatt hours Thousands of terawatt hours
30 30
Global electricity
usage in 2030
25 will be about 25
four times Commercial
that of 1980.
20 20
Residential
15 15
Non-OECD Transportation
10 10
Other industry
OECD
5 5 Heavy
industry
0 0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

33. Tinker, 2012
Power Generation by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
North America Europe Asia Pacific
120 120 120
100 100 100
80 80 80
60 60 60
40 Renewables 40 40
Nuclear
20 20 20
Coal
Gas
0 Oil 0 0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

34. Tinker, 2012
Cost of U.S. Electricity Generation
2025
Cost per kilowatt hour in 2010 cents
20
Generating costs are for new, base-load,
power-generation plants that come online
in 2025.
15
At $60
per ton
10 of CO2
No CO2
cost
5
0
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/CCS Gas/CCS Solar*
*Wind and solar exclude costs of backup capacity and additional transmission.
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

35. Tinker, 2012
Electricity
Net electricity 0.11
Solar 0.01 Imports
0.09 12.68
Electricity
generation
39.97
Hydro 2.43
2.45 4.70
0.51
Wind Residential
0.51 11.48 9.18
0.31 0.08
Geothermal 0.2
0.35
4.61
0.1
Commercial
8.58 6.86 Energy
services
0.01
3.35 42.15
Electricity Industrial
23.94 19.15
Alternatives 0.02
Trans-
portation
27.86
6.96
(2008 Quads)
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
QAd8174

36. Tinker, 2012
Hydro
Norway
300 MW Nameplate

37. Tinker, 2012
Hydro
Norway
300 MW Nameplate
Hydro Challenges
• Fresh Water Capture
• Land Use & Topography
• Drought

38. Tinker, 2012
Geothermal
Iceland
300 MW Nameplate

39. Tinker, 2012
Geothermal
Iceland
Geothermal Challenges
• Thermal Conversion 300 MW Nameplate
• Geology

40. Tinker, 2012
Distributed Solar
San Francisco, CA

41. Tinker, 2012
Industrial Solar
Andusal, PV
Spain 60 MW Nameplate
Solucar, CSP
11 MW Nameplate
Olmedilla de Alarcon,
Parabolic Troughs
50 MW Nameplate

42. Tinker, 2012
Industrial Solar
Andusal, PV
Spain 60 MW Nameplate
Solar Challenges
Solucar, CSP
• Cost
11 MW Nameplate
• Manufacturing
Olmedilla de Alarcon,
• Intermittency Parabolic Troughs
• Energy Storage 50 MW Nameplate
• Transmission
• Land Use

43. Tinker, 2012
Wind

44. Tinker, 2012
Global Power-Generation Capacity
The Reality of Intermittency
Gigawatts
800
Capacity
600
not utilized
400 Intermittent wind and sun reduce
output of installed capacity.
Capacity
utilized
200
0
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
Nuclear Wind Solar
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

45. Tinker, 2012
ERCOT Power Curve

46. Tinker, 2012
ERCOT Power Curve
Wind Challenges
• Transmission
• Intermittency
• Energy Storage
• Siting
• Materials
• Infrastructure

47. Tinker, 2012
U. S. Energy Flows
Net electricity 0.11
Imports
8.45 12.68
6.82 Electricity
Nuclear generation
8.45 39.97
4.70
Residential
11.48 9.18
4.99
4.61
Natural gas Commercial
23.84 8.58 6.86 Energy
3.20 services
3.35 42.15
8.14 Industrial
23.94 19.15
Emerging 0.02
Foundational 0.67
Trans-
portation
27.86
6.96
Energies
(2008 Quads)
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
QAd8174

48. Tinker, 2012
Nuclear
Le Hague Waste Recycling
Normandy, France

49. Tinker, 2012
Nuclear
Le Hague Waste Recycling
Normandy, France
Nuclear Challenges
• Natural and Human Disasters
• Front End Cost
Permitting and Regulatory
• Waste Protection
• Proliferation

50. Natural Gas Supply - Tinker, 2012
Resources and Production
15 100% 5
Pre-2008 fields
90% Post-2008 fields
Share from new fields
Production Cost, $/Mbtu 2008
80% 4
10 70%
60% 3
Coal Bed Methane
Deep
Arctic
Tcm
Water 50%
Sour
Shale 40% 2
Tight
5
Conventional
LNG 30%
Produced
20% 1
Transportation cost
1000 km pipeline 10%
0 0% 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Resources, Trillion Cubic Meters Annual Production
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

51. Tinker, 2012
LNG - Conventional Natural Gas
Qatar
North Field

52. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Natural Gas
Production and Reserves
30 300
25 250
Annual
Marketed Production (Tcf)
Proved Reserves (Tcf)
U.S. Production
20 200
15 150
10 100
End-of-Year
U.S. Proved Reserves
5 50
0 0
After Steve Harvey, EIA

53. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Natural Gas
Production
20.0
Annual Natural Gas Production (Tcf) .
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0 Onshore unconventional
4.0 Alaska
Offshore
2.0 Onshore conventional
-
After Steve Harvey, EIA

54. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Natural Gas
Production
20.0
Annual Natural Gas Production (Tcf) .
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0 Onshore unconventional
4.0 Alaska
Offshore
2.0 Onshore conventional
-
After Steve Harvey, EIA

55. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Gas Shale Production
5.0
Eagle Ford Shale
4.5
Marcellus Shale
4.0
Annual shale gas production, Tcf
Haynesville-Bossier Shale
3.5 Woodford Shale
3.0 Fayetteville Shale
2.5 Barnett Shale
Antrim Shale
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Boyer, C., Clark, B., Jochen, V., Lewis, R., and Miller, C. K., 2011, Shale gas: a global resource: Oilfield
Review, Autumn, p. 30 [adapted from U.S. DOE and NETL, 2011, “Shale Gas: Applying Technology to solve
America’s Energy Challenges,” Washington, D.C.: http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-
gas/publications/brochures/Shale_Gas_March_2011.pdf (accessed 8-22-11)].
QAe63

56. Tinker, 2012
Barnett Shale
Nanopores in Organics
Orange dots are 20 nm in diameter
Human Hair
0.2 m
200 nm
50 µm T.P. Sims #2; 7625’
After Reed, BEG

57. Tinker, 2012
Innovation driven by necessity
Carrizo location – UT Arlington
Barnett drilling location
University of Texas at
Arlington
From XTO annual report

58. Tinker, 2012
1 mile

59. Tinker, 2012
Shale Gas Plays
Bakken-Three Forks
Utica Shale
Oil
*
*
*
Monterrey *
* *
*
Bone Spring/Avalon
*
*
Wolfberry
Eagle Ford Map: DOE Shale Gas Primer, 2009

60. Tinker, 2012
Shale Gas Plays
Potential Global Shale Gas Basins
Source: IHS CERA

61. Tinker, 2012
Woodford Shale Frac Depth

62. Water Use (1000's AF/yr)
M
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
un
ici
M p
al
an
uf
ac
tu
rin
g
M
St ini
ea ng
m
-e
lec
tri
c
Li
ve
st
oc
k
Water Use in Texas
Irr
ig
at
io
n
From JP Nicot, BEG
Tinker, 2012

63. Tinker, 2012
80 Water Use in Texas
Water Use (1000's AF/yr)
70
12,000
2008 Water Use (Thousand AF)
60
10,000
50 8,000
40
6,000
4,000
30
2,000
20
0
g
ng
n
al
10
k
c
io
rin
oc
tri
p
ini
at
ici
lec
tu
st
M
ig
un
ac
ve
-e
Irr
0
M
uf
Li
m
an
l
ea
s a s rs
Ga Co ga
te he
Ot
M
St
nd re
O il a Ag
g From JP Nicot, BEG

64. 2008 Water Use (Thousand AF)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Water Use (1000's AF/yr)
O il a
nd
Ga
s
M
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
un
ici
M al p
an
uf
ac
tu
rin Water Use (1000's AF/yr)
Co
a
g
l
0
10
20
30
40
Water 50
M D
ini rill
in
St
ea ng g
m
Ag
g
-e
rega
lec
te
C
s
tri om
c pl
1990’s vs. 2008
Li et
io
ve n
st
oc
k
Use in Texas
Ot
Irr
he
ig
rs
at EO
io R
n
From JP Nicot, BEG
Tinker, 2012

65. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Shale Gas
Implications
 Environmental
 Traffic (-)
 Noise/light (-)
 Water (-)
 Land Use (-)
 NORM (-)
 Carbon (+/-)
 Energy Security (+)
 Fuel Diversity (+)

66. Tinker, 2012
U.S. Shale Gas
Implications
Natural Gas Challenges
 Environmental
• Traffic (-)
Deliverability
 Noise/light (-)

• Water (-)
Access

• Land Use Emissions
CO2 (-)
 NORM (-)
• Carbon (+/-)
Water
 • Micro Quakes
Energy Security (+)
Fuel Diversity (+)

• Educated Regulation

67. Tinker, 2012
Our Mission Today
 Energy, Economy and Environment
 Energy Supply
 Scale, Time Frames and Challenges
 Efficiency and Security

68. Tinker, 2012
U. S. Energy Flows
Net electricity 0.11
Imports
12.68
Electricity
generation 27.39
39.97 Rejected
energy
2.29
4.70 57.07
Residential
11.48
1.71
4.61
Commercial
8.58
4.78
3.35
Efficiency Industrial
23.94
0.02
20.90
Trans-
portation
27.86
(2008 Quads)
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. DOE based on Annual Energy Review, 2008 (EIA, 2009)
From National Academies Press, America’s Energy Future, 2009
QAd8174

69. Tinker, 2012
Efficiency
 Fuel
Energy
 Lighting
efficiency can be
improved across
 Electronics
all consumption
 Insulation
sectors.

70. Tinker, 2012
Energy Security
Available Access to substantial, national resources
Affordable Electricity: produced Kwh is inexpensive
Facility: inexpensive to build the plant
Volatile: stable fuel price
Reliable Intermittent: source consistent or variable
Safe: potential harm from natural/human causes
Green Dense: small land footprint to collect/produce
Dry: fresh water use or potential risk
Clean: air emissions minimal

71. Tinker, 2012
Energy Security
Available Affordable Reliable Green
Solar 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.3
Hydro 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7
Wind 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.3
Geothermal 2.0 1.7 3.0 2.7
Nuclear 3.0 2.3 2.5 2.7
Natural Gas 3.0 2.7 3.0 1.7
Coal 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.3
Biomass 2.0 1.0 2.7 1.3
Petroleum 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.0

72. Tinker, 2012
A Look at the Global Future
50%
Petroleum Consumption
Coal Consumption
45%
Natural Gas Consumption
40% Nuclear Electric Power Consumption
Hydroelectric Power Consumption
35% Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind Consumption
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Tinker Forecast

73. Tinker, 2012
A Look at the Global Future
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
200.0
180.0
Global Consumption (Q)
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Tinker Forecast

74. 100% Tinker, 2012
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
800.0
700.0
Global Consumption (Q)
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
Tinker1980 1990
Forecast 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

75. Tinker, 2012
A Few Things About Energy
• The scale of energy demand is difficult to comprehend;
energy supply transitions take many decades.
• Energy security should be the goal of good policy.
• Energy efficiency is underappreciated; individual
behavior matters!
• Natural gas and uranium (nuclear) are premier fuels of
this century.
• Renewables are good regional supplements, but will
remain such until major advances are made in energy
storage.
• Oil and coal are abundant at the right price, and difficult
to replace as transportation and electricity fuels.
• Energy, the economy and the environment are intimately
linked. Energy choices are based largely on cost.