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2. Overview of presentation
• An overview of Labour force survey of Pakistan
• Review of labour market of Pakistan
• Status of achieving MD goals
• Some issues of labour market
• Government policies/initiatives for increasing skills
and employment
• Binding constraints to raise skill and employment
• Policy recommendations for fixing binding constraints
4. Introduction of LFS
• Federal Bureau of Statistics has been carrying out
Labour Force Survey (LFS) since 1963.
• The questionnaire was revised overtime.
• Since 2005, the quarterly survey practice has been
launched.
• The sample size of 2009-10 survey is 36,400
households, enumerated in 4 quarters.
5. Information in LFS
• Socio-demographic characteristics of population ;
• Information on dimensions of labour force; i.e.
number of persons employed, unemployed,
underemployed or out of labour market;
• Facts on the engagement in major occupational
trades and the nature of work undertaken by the
institutions/organizations;
• Data on wages, mode of payment and occupations;
• Assessment on occupational health and safety of
employed persons by causes, type of treatment,
conditions that caused the accident/injury and time
of recovery; and
• Data on the characteristics of unemployed persons
including previous job, waiting time invested in the
quest for work, their availability for work and
expectations for future employment.
6. Introduction
• The sixth most populous country in the world.
• 180 million population with 2.05% growth rate.
• 54.92 million labour force (42.44 million male and
12.48 million female) with an annual growth rate of
3.7 percent.
• Rural areas have almost more than double share in
the total employment .
9. Level of education- distribution of population 10+ years of age by sex (%)
LFS 1999-2000 LFS 2009-10
Level of education
Total male female Total male female
A. Literate 46.5 59 33.3 57.7 69.5 45.2
No formal education 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Below matric 31.3 39.2 23 37.5 44.9 29.5
Matric but below inter 8.7 11.2 6 10.7 13.1 8
Inter but below degree 3.3 4.2 2.4 4.7 5.6 3.8
Degree and above 2.7 3.8 1.5 4.3 5.3 3.4
B. Illiterate 53.5 41 66.7 42.3 30.5 54.8
10. Labour force participation rates
• Crude activity rate (CAR)
• Refined activity rate (RAR)
• Specific Activity Rates (inverted U-shape in nature
12. Demographic dividend in
Pakistan
• Situation of moving from high fertility and high
mortality to low fertility and mortality….
• This transition has brought sizeable changes in the
age distribution of population.
• Is a “demographic gift” to the economy
16. Employment –to-Population Ratio among Adults and Youth in
Pakistan
Chang
2000/ 2001/ 2003/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ e 2000
01 02 04 06 07 08 and
2008
Employment-to-population ratio in Pakistan for Adult
Overall 46.8 46.5 47.0 49.7 49.8 49.9 + 3.1
Male 78.6 77.6 77.6 79.6 79.6 79.1 + 0.5
Femal
13.7 13.6 15.6 19.0 19.4 19.9 + 6.2
e
Employment-to-population ratio in South Asia for Adult
Overall 58 57.3 56.7 56.7 - -
Male 80 78.8 78.4 78.2 - -
Femal
34 34.4 33.8 34.0 - -
e
Youth Employment-to-population ratio
Overall 35.1 37.6 38.5 42.0 40.9 - + 5.8
Male 61.6 61.8 62.7 66.1 64.2 - + 2.6
17. Distribution of employed Labour force by major industry
1999-2000 2009-10
Major industry divisions
Overall Male Female Overall Male Female
Agriculture, forestry, 48.4 44.4 72.9 45.0 36.6 74.9
hunting and fishing
Manufacturing and mining 11.6 12.1 8.4 13.2 13.9 11.0
Construction 5.8 6.6 0.5 6.7 8.5 0.3
Wholesale and retail trade 13.5 15.3 2.6 16.3 20.2 2.1
Transport, storage and 5 5.8 0.2 5.2 6.6 0.3
communication
Community services and 14.2 14.1 15.1 11.2 11.2 11.2
personal services
Others* 1.5 1.7 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.2
*Others (includes mining & quarrying, electricity, gas & water, financing, insurance, real estate &
business services and extraterritorial organizations and bodies)
18. Trends in % distribution of employed persons
by major industry in Pakistan
75 12
70 10
8
65
6
60
4
55 2
50 0
1974-75 1982-83 1990-91 2001-02 2007-08
Agriculture
social and personal services
Wholesale and retail
22. MDG goals
• Regarding education, MD goal was to achieve
universal primary education.
• Regarding the labour market, the initial MDGs only
covered the gender equality by promoting share in
non-agriculture jobs. It were revised in 2007 and the
employment efficiency has also been included.
i. Growth rate of labour productivity (GDP per person
employed);
ii. Employment-to-population ratio;
iii. Proportion of employed people living below the
poverty line; and
iv. vulnerable employment rate.
24. MDG indicator of women share in non-agriculture
employment
MTDF
MDG
Target
Indicator 1990 2001 2006 2008 Target
2009/1
2015
0
Share of
women in
wage
employment 8.07 9.65 10.53 10.64 12 14
in the non-
agricultural
sector
Source: MDG Country Report, 2010
27. Working Poor (%)
1996 2006
Pakistan
US$ 1 day 13.4 8.7
US$ 2 day 71.4 58.8
South Asia
US$ 1 day 55.9 34.6
US$ 2 day 91.7 80.7
Source: ILO, Working Poverty Model, October 2007, Geneva
Pakistan has a lower percentage of working poor
compared to overall south Asia.
28. Labour productivity “per hours” worked, by sector (constant
factor cost in PKR)
(15+) FY00 FY04 FY06 FY07
National 44.3 45.9 48.0 50.3
Agriculture 24.8 26.6 28.1 28.9
Mining 1389.3 1855.0 1129.6 1084.1
Manufacturing 56.5 56.8 63.4 67.1
Electricity, gas
250.7 249.6 155.8 140.1
and water
Construction 19.5 15.7 17.2 18.4
Wholesale and
50.1 48.0 47.2 49.1
retail trade
Transport and
84.9 73.7 68.3 75.2
communication
Finance 360.2 248.7 317.7 337.3
Social Services 49.6 50.1 53.5 55.7
30. Key HR Policies of SBP
• Training to younger officers by foreign experts
• Overseas training
• Recruitment of highly qualified people
• Performance measurement and improvement system
(PMIS)
32. HR policy for recruitment
• NTS provide services for bulk recruitment
• For limited recruitment, SBP has been adopting
‘Employer of Choice’ policy. During 2007-08, about
166 graduates and professionals have been recruited
by this policy.
• Online recruitment
34. Performance Measurement and
Improvement System (PMIS)
• Online system was introduced in 2002 which enable
each employee to submit his/her planning,
performance/achievements and appeal. Employees
can also see their performance rankings on their own
from ‘level 1’ (excellent) to ‘level 5’.
• The promotion policy was also linked with this
performance.
• Appreciation letter were given by departmental
heads to ‘level 1’ performers
35. Performance Bonus
Bonus Amount (one time payment)
Grade
For A rated For B+ rated
performers performers
OG-6 to
25,000 12,500
OG-8
OG-5 22,000 11,000
OG-4 17,500 8,750
OG-3 12,500 6,250
OG-2 10,000 5,000
36. Training and development
Local Training (participant in numbers)
Training
FY06 FY07 FY08
areas
Central
822 226 772
Banking
Management 809 356 579
Total Local 1,631 582 1,351
Total foreign
Training - 118 124
Internship/visit for local and foreign students
38. Background
• The recent global financial crisis soared the global
unemployment rates all around the globe.
• Within Asia, East-Asia was heavily effected, while
South-Asia was less effected.
• Labor markets must have the flexibility to shift
workers from one economic activity to another
rapidly at low cost. Efficient labor markets must also
ensure relationship between worker incentives and
their efforts, as well as equity in the business
environment between women and men.
40. Ranking of Labour Market Efficiency in Selective Countries in 2010 (out of 139 countries)
Efficiency Indicators Pakistan China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand
Cooperation in labor-
104 58 49 47 16 34
employer relations
Flexibility of wage
104 56 61 98 44 90
determination
Rigidity of
110 78 77 100 18 25
employment
Hiring and firing
51 62 89 38 50 31
practices
Pay and productivity 93 15 61 20 6 29
Brain drain 68 37 34 27 28 38
Female participation
137 23 128 109 111 57
in labor force
Secondary education
125 92 108 95 99 96
enrollment rate
Source: Global Competitive Index Report, 2010
41. Demographic Trends and Decent Work Issues in Selective Countries
Dependency
Ratio Formal Employment Vulnerable Employment
(per 100 people (2000-2008) (2000-2008)
Country ages 15–64)
1990 2010 % of total Ratio of % of total Ratio of
Employment female employment female
to male rates to male rates
Pakistan 89.2 68.6 38.2 0.59 61.8 1.29
China 51.2 39.1 - - - -
India 71.5 55.6 - - - -
Indonesia 65.6 48.7 36.9 0.81 63.1 1.13
Malaysia 69.7 51.3 77.6 1.02 22.3 0.93
Thailand 53.0 41.2 46.6 0.90 53.3 -
Source: Human Development Report, 2010
42.
43. Issues of Job mismatch
• Poor educational and labour policies lead to
issues of job mismatch.
• A variety of socio-demographic characteristics,
customs and barriers are causing the job
mismatch especially for women in Pakistan .
• Educational system is not coping with the right
demands of labour market and following a
variety of tiers.
• The employment is not keeping pace with labour
force participation.
• Imperfections are rising including rising job search
periods, rising share of informal economy, rising risks
of vulnerability and educated unemployment
especially for female and youth.
• Job mismatch has three dimensions.
44. Distribution of the sampled graduates by occupation (%)
Manager Professional Ass. Clerical Elementary Total
professional support occupations
LFS (2006-07)
Female 10.1 21.0 64.6 1.1 3.3 100
Male 27.3 19.0 27.5 10.4 15.8 100
Total 24.6 19.3 33.5 8.9 13.8 100
LFS (2008-09)
Female 8.5 22.7 64.6 1.4 2.8 100
Male 25.6 18.7 31.7 10.3 13.7 100
Total 23.1 19.3 36.6 9.0 12.1 100
SEG (2010)
Female 12.4 40.7 27.2 18.5 1.2 100
Male 20.6 29.0 33.7 12.9 3.7 100
Total 17.7 32.6 32.7 13.8 3.3 100
45. Distribution of sampled graduates by monthly Income in
categories
Monthly SEG, 2010 LFS, 2008-09
Earning Fem
Female Male Total Male Total
(Rs) ale
up to min.
11.1 3.7 4.9 21.4 9.4 11.3
wage*
Min. wage-
24.7 13.4 15.2 33.2 28.6 29.4
12000
12001-15000 19.8 10.2 11.7 12.7 15.4 14.9
15001-20000 14.8 18.2 17.7 14.9 17.4 17.0
20001-30000 12.4 24.5 22.6 11.8 15.2 14.6
30001-50000 16.1 20.3 19.7 4.7 11.9 10.8
50001 and
1.2 9.7 8.4 1.3 2.1 2.0
above
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
*minimum wage is 6,000 for LFS, 2008-09 For SEG, 2010 is 7,000
46. The Employed Workers by Academic Qualification and Occupation in Pakistan
Attained Education (in years)
Occupations up to 5 6 to 10 12 14 16 M.Phill/Ph.D
Manager 3,705 3,541 976 1,137 492 23
Professional 194 203 89 572 333 33
Technicians, assoc. 323 1,183 1,037 1,253 540 4
Clerical support 39 382 355 299 71 2
Service and sales 1,711 1,376 332 172 21 0
Skilled agricultural, 19,952 4,022 474 189 32 0
forestry and fishery
Craft and related trades 6,128 3,037 350 136 18 4
Machine operators, and 1,781 1,190 126 44 9 1
assemblers
Elementary occupations10,297 2,086 154 48 2 0
Source: Estimated from the Labour Force Survey, 2008-09
47. Federal Government Civil Servants by BPS and Academic Qualification
Academic Qualification (in years)
BPS Grades Doctorate Master Bachelor Intermediate Matric Others
1-2 140 572 1,951 6,601 714
3-10 3,669 1,2625 18,296 31,786 662
11-15 6,927 1,2601 7,616 6,467 262
16 3,309 3,921 1,564 1,128 123
17 102 3,324 2,355 307 141 66
18 138 2,010 1,308 104 29 25
19 72 1,149 438 8 1 18
20 47 544 144 6
21 10 167 31 3
22 5 52 10
Source: Thirteen Census of Federal Government Civil Servants, 2003
48. The level of education-job mismatch by various approaches (%)
Datasets Matched Under-educated Over-educated
(LFS 2006-07) Female 65.7 4.4 30.0
Male 69.4 9.7 20.9
Total 68.8 8.9 22.3
(LFS 2008-09) Female 60.5 4.2 35.4
Male 71.2 2.3 26.6
Total 69.6 2.5 27.9
SEG, 2010 WSA 65.4 9.9 24.7
JA 69.5 4.5 26.1
RM 63.4 21.6 15.0
49. Distribution of respondents by the level of
qualification mismatch (%)
Under- Over-
Matched
qualified qualified
Female 66.7 11.1 22.2
Male 72.8 13.9 13.4
Total 71.8 13.4 14.8
*based on the weights estimated by PCA approach
51. The % Distribution of the Respondents by Reported Field of
Study and Job Mismatch
Level of Mismatch Female Male Total
Irrelevant 14.8 10.6 11.3
Slightly relevant 18.5 12.9 13.8
Moderately
33.3 39.3 38.3
relevant
Completely
33.3 37.2 36.6
relevant
52. Government Policies and
Programmes
• Pakistan has so far launched six labour polices in 1955, 1959,
1969, 1972, 2002 and 2010.
• During FY02-FY10 period, around 70-80 percent of the PRSP
budget has been spent on only three sectors: human
development, rural development and safety nets.
• Various micro-finance rozgar schemes are also assisting the
poor.
• Labour Market Information and Analysis (LMIA) Unit was
established in 2006.
• National Internship Program (NIP) was launched in 2007 to
provide internship to educated youth.
• To develop skilled labour force, the government has established
five Skill Development Councils (SDCs) one each at Islamabad,
Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta.
• National Migration Policy 2008 to promote overseas migration
53. Silent features of Labour
Policy 2010
• The Government will insure full adherence of labour laws and
workers with friendly environment in all establishments to promote
decent work in the country.
• Raising the minimum wages by 16 percent from Rs. 6,000 to Rs.
7,000 per month. All industrial, commercial and other
establishments registered under any law shall pay wages to the
employees through Cheque/Bank transfer.
• In order the monitor the implementation of labour laws pertaining
to wage, working environment and time, a Tripartite Monitoring
Committees will be set up at district, province and federal level.
• LIMA will be established through the creation of Human Resource
Centers at various cities.
• Contract employees within the public sector will be regularized.
• A comprehensive Social Insurance for old-age benefits and health
services will be introduced on self-registration/voluntary basis to
allow all workers in formal and informal sector of economy,
including self employed persons, to benefit from it.
• In cases where the social security hospital has no facilities for
treatment, the worker shall be referred to any public/private
hospital and the respective Social Security Institution will bear all
costs of treatment.
54. Key objectives of NAVTEC Skill
strategy 2009-13
• Providing relevant skills for industrial & economic
development through introducing competency based
training, increasing the role of the private sector and
encouraging entrepreneurship.
• Improving access, equity and employability by
focusing on skills for women, disadvantaged groups,
providing career guidance to youth and vocational
education in schools
• Assuring quality by streamlining policymaking,
establishing a national qualifications framework,
research and training of trainers
55. Diagnostic Analysis of Binding
Constraints
Policy gaps and poor implementation and lack of
targeting policies
• Pakistan has long history of social action programs i.e.
land reforms, Village Aid program (1952–1961), Rural
Works Programme (1963–1972), People’s Works
Programme (1972–1982), the Integrated Rural
Development Programme (1972–1980), the Five-
Point Programme (1985–1988), the Tameer-e-Watan
Programme (1991), Social Action Programme I & II
(1985–2002) and PRSP (2001-onward).
• SAP, a targeted program also remained fail because of
underutilization of funds (less than 60 percent budget
was consumed out of allocated Rs. 600 billion), lack
of awareness, absence of people’s participation, and
centralized decision-making.
56. Saving Investment as percentage of GDP (Current prices)
25
20
15
10
5
1978
1972
1974
1976
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Saving Investment
Education and Health Expenditure (% of GNP)
3.5
3
3
2.7
2.5
2 1.6
1.5
1
1980s 1990s 2000s
57. Weak institution, poor governance and
deteriorated law & order situation
Governance Indicators
Indicators Index
Judicial independence 74/139
Irregular payments and bribes 117/139
Property rights 107/139
Favoritism in decisions of
87/139
government officials
Business cost of terrorism 138/139
Organized crime 127/139
corruption 139/180
Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11; Transparency
international, 2009
• Rising expenditure on ‘war on terror’; $68 billion
during 2002-10 period
58. Regional Inequality in Public Provision
and Infrastructure
Rural Infrastructure by Provinces
Balochista
Punjab Sindh KPK
n
Distance to
Metal road<1 80 67 38 20
km
Physical
Electricity 47 10 34 12
Infrastructure
Soling street 66 30 29 8
Drain 58 23 19 7
Piped water 9 7 20 9
Soft Edu. Institute 34 37.5 33.3 22.3
Infrastructure Health Institute 30.5 27.3 24.5 11.3
Source: MOUZA statistics, 2008
59. Macroeconomic instability
Development budget (% of GDP)
8
7.3
6 4.7 4.8
4 3.5 2.2 3.4
2
0
Overall macro environment
133/139
Index
Inflation 137/139
Country credit rating 125/139
Quality of electricity Supply 128/139
Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11
60. Poverty levels in China and
Pakistan, 1978-2005
• In 1978, rural poverty in both China and Pakistan was
around 33 percent. In 2005, it was 28 percent in
Pakistan and only 2.5 percent in China.
• Fluctuations in Poverty in Pakistan during last three
decades (1960s, 1980s, 2007/08)
• Urban poverty in Pakistan has also been higher than
China.
61. Rural Population living below the poverty
line (in millions)
40 38
250 35 32
30 29 29
25 24
20 19 18
15 14
10
5
25
0
1978 1985 1990 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005
China Pakistan
62. Policy implications and
recommendations
• Create socio-economic assets for the poor
• Ensure macroeconomic and political stability
• Integration of markets - development of non-farm sector to
generate employment opportunities
• Remove regional socio-economic disparities
• Need massive public investment on education and
health, particularly the technical education
• Planned urbanization is engine of employment generation
• Include the role of private sector
• Coordination among various demand and supply side
stakeholders of labour market is prerequisite
• Ensure equality and quality of education across the regions
and institutes with dynamic education policy
• Tracer type studies should be conducted to understand the
employment patterns and skills demanded by economy
• Knowledge based policies for youth and for female
• Improve the labour market information system
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