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Labour Market in Pakistan; Issues
       and Implications
Overview of presentation
• An overview of Labour force survey of Pakistan
• Review of labour market of Pakistan
• Status of achieving MD goals
• Some issues of labour market
• Government policies/initiatives for increasing skills
  and employment
• Binding constraints to raise skill and employment
• Policy recommendations for fixing binding constraints
Population



Active Population       Inactive Population



 Employed                   Unemployed
Introduction of LFS
• Federal Bureau of Statistics has been carrying out
  Labour Force Survey (LFS) since 1963.
• The questionnaire was revised overtime.
• Since 2005, the quarterly survey practice has been
  launched.
• The sample size of 2009-10 survey is 36,400
  households, enumerated in 4 quarters.
Information in LFS
• Socio-demographic characteristics of population ;
• Information on dimensions of labour force; i.e.
  number of persons employed, unemployed,
  underemployed or out of labour market;
• Facts on the engagement in major occupational
  trades and the nature of work undertaken by the
  institutions/organizations;
• Data on wages, mode of payment and occupations;
• Assessment on occupational health and safety of
  employed persons by causes, type of treatment,
  conditions that caused the accident/injury and time
  of recovery; and
• Data on the characteristics of unemployed persons
  including previous job, waiting time invested in the
  quest for work, their availability for work and
  expectations for future employment.
Introduction
• The sixth most populous country in the world.
• 180 million population with 2.05% growth rate.
• 54.92 million labour force (42.44 million male and
  12.48 million female) with an annual growth rate of
  3.7 percent.
• Rural areas have almost more than double share in
  the total employment .
Sex-ratio of population of
Pakistan (male/female)
                Census   LFS 2007-   LFS 2009-
                 1998        08          10
  Pakistan       108        106         106

  Rural          106       105         105

  Urban          112       108         108

  Punjab         115       103         104

  Sindh          104       115         114

  KPK            107       101         100

  Balochistan    112       113         113
Literacy rate of population
Pakistan            Census 1998                LFS 2009-10
              Total    Male   Female   Total      Male     Female
Pakistan        45     56.5     32.6   57.7        69.5     45.2
Rural          34.4    47.4     20.8   49.2        63.6     34.2
Urban          64.7    72.6     55.6   73.2        80.2     65.5
Punjab         47.4    58.7     35.3   59.6        69.1     49.8
Rural          38.5    51.3     25.1   52.5        64.0     40.7
Urban          65.8    73.4     57.2   73.5        78.9     67.8
Sindh          46.7    56.6     35.4   58.2        70.2     44.3
Rural           27     39.5     13.1   41.0        58.2     20.3
Urban          65.2    72.1     57.1   74.9        82.2     66.8
KPK            37.3    52.8     21.1   50.9        70.1     32.3
Rural          32.5    48.2     16.7   48.4        68.3     29.1
Urban          58.7    72.4     42.7   62.7        77.8     47.4
Balochistan 26.6       36.5      15    51.5        69.2     29.3
Rural          18.9    27.8      8.8   45.7        64.2     22.5
Urban          50.3    62.4     35.3   69.6        85.0     50.6
Level of education- distribution of population 10+ years of age by sex (%)
                               LFS 1999-2000               LFS 2009-10
Level of education
                         Total     male    female     Total    male female
A. Literate               46.5     59        33.3      57.7    69.5    45.2
No formal education       0.5      0.6       0.4       0.5      0.6     0.5
Below matric              31.3     39.2      23        37.5    44.9    29.5
Matric but below inter    8.7      11.2       6        10.7    13.1      8

Inter but below degree    3.3      4.2       2.4       4.7      5.6     3.8

Degree and above          2.7      3.8       1.5       4.3      5.3     3.4
B. Illiterate             53.5     41        66.7      42.3    30.5    54.8
Labour force participation rates
• Crude activity rate (CAR)
• Refined activity rate (RAR)
• Specific Activity Rates (inverted U-shape in nature
2000/0 2001/0 2005/0 2006/0 2007/0 2008/0
            1      2      6      7      8      9
Crude participation rates
Overall     -     29.6       -       -         -       32.8
Male        -      48        -       -         -       49.6
Female      -      9.9       -       -         -       14.9
Refined participation Rate (overall 10+)
Overall   50.4    50.5      53     52.5    52.5         -
Male      83.2    82.7      84     83.1    82.4         -
Female    16.3    16.2      21.1   21.3    21.8         -
Refined Participation Rate for Youth (15-24)
Overall   40.5    43.4      45.9   44.2            -    -
Male      69.3    70.2      72.2   69.2            -    -
Female    10.2    14.8      18.6   18.4            -    -
Source: various editions of LFS
Demographic dividend in
Pakistan
• Situation of moving from high fertility and high
  mortality to low fertility and mortality….
• This transition has brought sizeable changes in the
  age distribution of population.
• Is a “demographic gift” to the economy
Age composition of Pakistan, 1998-2030
80
70                                                          67
                           61            63.6
60         53
50    43
40                    35
                                     31.8
30                                                     27

20
10              4               4               6                6
0
     1998 (TFR 4.8) 2010 (TFR 3.49) 2020 (TFR 2.8)   2030 (TFR 2.1)

            below 15        15-64       65 and above
Unemployment rates for Adult and for Youth (%)


        FY01 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Change b/w 2000 & final


Unemployment rates for overall (%)
Overall  6   7.8 8.3 7.6 6.2           5.2   5.2      -0.8
Male    5.5 6.2 6.2 5.2 4.2            4.3    -       -1.1
Female 15.8 16.4 12.9 9.6 8.6          8.5    -       -7.3
Rural   6.9 7.5 6.7 5.3 4.7            4.7   4.7      -2.2
Urban 9.9 9.8 9.7          8     6.6   8.3   7.1      -2.8
Unemployment Rate for Youth (15-24)
Overall 13.3 13.4 11.7 8.6 7.5          -     -       -5.9
Male    11.1 12     11 8.4 7.1          -     -       -4.0
Female 29.3 20.5 14.9 9.6 8.9           -     -      -20.4
Urban 16.8 16.1 15 11.8 10.5            -     -       -6.3
Rural   11.7 12.1 10.1 7.2 6.1          -     -       -5.6
Unemployment rate (%) in Pakistan and
                         16                    China, 1980-2010
                         14
                         12
                         10
                          8
                          6
                          4
                          2
                          0



                                                                               1994
                              1980
                                     1982
                                            1984
                                                   1986
                                                          1988
                                                                 1990
                                                                        1992


                                                                                      1996
                                                                                             1998
                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                           2002
                                                                                                                  2004
                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                2008
                                                                                                                                       2010
                                                                   China              Pakistan




Source: International Financial Statistics (1980-2003); www.indexmundi.com (2004-2010)
Employment –to-Population Ratio among Adults and Youth in
Pakistan
                                                       Chang
         2000/ 2001/ 2003/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ e 2000
           01    02     04        06      07      08 and
                                                       2008
Employment-to-population ratio in Pakistan for Adult
Overall 46.8    46.5   47.0      49.7    49.8    49.9 + 3.1
Male      78.6  77.6   77.6      79.6    79.6    79.1 + 0.5
Femal
          13.7  13.6   15.6      19.0    19.4    19.9 + 6.2
e
Employment-to-population ratio in South Asia for Adult
Overall 58      57.3   56.7      56.7      -       -
Male       80   78.8   78.4      78.2      -       -
Femal
           34   34.4   33.8      34.0      -       -
e
Youth Employment-to-population ratio
Overall 35.1    37.6   38.5      42.0    40.9      -    + 5.8
Male      61.6  61.8   62.7      66.1    64.2      -    + 2.6
Distribution of employed Labour force by major industry

                                         1999-2000                                 2009-10
Major industry divisions
                                 Overall   Male Female                Overall      Male    Female
Agriculture, forestry,           48.4      44.4 72.9                  45.0         36.6    74.9
hunting and fishing
Manufacturing and mining 11.6                  12.1      8.4          13.2         13.9        11.0
Construction               5.8                 6.6       0.5          6.7          8.5         0.3
Wholesale and retail trade 13.5                15.3      2.6          16.3         20.2        2.1
Transport, storage and     5                   5.8       0.2          5.2          6.6         0.3
communication
Community services and     14.2                14.1      15.1         11.2         11.2        11.2
personal services
Others*                    1.5                 1.7       0.3          2.4          3.0         0.2
*Others (includes mining & quarrying, electricity, gas & water, financing, insurance, real estate &
business services and extraterritorial organizations and bodies)
Trends in % distribution of employed persons
             by major industry in Pakistan
75                                                       12

70                                                       10

                                                         8
65
                                                         6
60
                                                         4
55                                                       2

50                                                       0
     1974-75   1982-83   1990-91    2001-02    2007-08
                Agriculture
                social and personal services
                Wholesale and retail
Employed: Major Occupational Groups
                                      LFS 1999-2000         LFS 2009-10
Occupations
                                   Overall Male Female Overall Male Female
Managers                           11      12.4 2.3    12      14.8 1.8
Professionals                      2.2    2.2   2.4    1.8    2.0   1.4
associate professionals            4.2    3.8   6.4    5.1    4.8   6.2
Clerical workers                   1.6    1.8   0.2    1.3    1.7   0.1
Service and sales workers          4.6    5.3   0.4    4.9    6.1   0.8
Skilled agricultural, workers      40     37.4 56.4    37.9   31    62.7
Craft and related trades workers   15.1   15.9 9.6     14.6   15.6 10.9
Machine operators, and assemblers 3.3     3.8   0.2    3.9    4.9   0.1
Elementary occupations             18.1   17.5 22.1    18.5   19.1 16
Distribution of employed by employment status


                           LFS 1999-2000               LFS 2009-10
Employment status
                        Overall Male Female Overall Male Female
Employers                0.8    0.9    0.1   1.3    1.6    0.1
Self-employed            42.2   46.4   16.7     34.2       40    13.6
Unpaid family helpers    21.4   16.7   50.1     29.1      18.7   66.3

Employees                35.6   36     33.1     35.4      39.7       20
Status of Achieving Labour
market Related MD Goals
MDG goals
• Regarding education, MD goal was to achieve
    universal primary education.
• Regarding the labour market, the initial MDGs only
    covered the gender equality by promoting share in
    non-agriculture jobs. It were revised in 2007 and the
    employment efficiency has also been included.
i.    Growth rate of labour productivity (GDP per person
      employed);
ii.   Employment-to-population ratio;
iii. Proportion of employed people living below the
      poverty line; and
iv. vulnerable employment rate.
Education related MDGs
                                                                  MTDF
                                                                           MDG
                                            2001-   2005-   2008- Target
                                  1990-91                                  Target
                                             02      06      09   2009/1
                                                                            2015
                                                                    0
Net primary enrolment ratio (%)     46       42      53      57     77      100
Completion/survival rate 1
                                    50      57.3    72.1    54.6    80      100
grade to 5 (%)
Literacy rate overall               35       45      54      57     77      88
Male                                48       55      65      69     85      89
Female                              21       35      42      45     66      87
MDG indicator of women share in non-agriculture
employment

                                           MTDF
                                                     MDG
                                           Target
Indicator      1990   2001   2006   2008            Target
                                           2009/1
                                                     2015
                                             0

Share of
women in
wage
employment     8.07   9.65 10.53 10.64       12      14
in the non-
agricultural
sector

Source: MDG Country Report, 2010
Vulnerable employment
• Vulnerable employment is the proportion of own-
  account and contributing family workers in total
  employment
Vulnerable Employment in Adults and Youth
                                            Change
           FY00    FY02     FY04     FY07   FY00 to
                                             FY07
Adult (15+)
Both
            63.1   58.7     60.6     60.6    -2.5
Sexes
Males       62.5   58.1     59.0     57.3    -5.2
Females     66.7   62.6     68.4     74.6    +7.9
Youth (15-24)
Both
            60.0   55.8     59.1     58.1    -1.9
Sexes
Males       60.1   55.5     57.5     54.9    -5.3
Females     59.1   57.3     66.2     71.1   +12.0
Working Poor (%)

                           1996                 2006

Pakistan

US$ 1 day                  13.4                  8.7

US$ 2 day                  71.4                 58.8

South Asia

US$ 1 day                  55.9                 34.6

US$ 2 day                  91.7                 80.7
Source: ILO, Working Poverty Model, October 2007, Geneva

Pakistan has a lower percentage of working poor
compared to overall south Asia.
Labour productivity “per hours” worked, by sector (constant
         factor cost in PKR)
(15+)                FY00        FY04         FY06        FY07
National             44.3         45.9         48.0       50.3
Agriculture          24.8         26.6         28.1       28.9
Mining              1389.3      1855.0       1129.6      1084.1
Manufacturing        56.5         56.8         63.4       67.1
Electricity, gas
                    250.7        249.6        155.8      140.1
and water
Construction         19.5         15.7         17.2       18.4
Wholesale and
                     50.1         48.0         47.2       49.1
retail trade
Transport and
                     84.9         73.7         68.3       75.2
communication
Finance             360.2        248.7        317.7      337.3
Social Services      49.6         50.1         53.5       55.7
SBP HR Policy
Key HR Policies of SBP
•   Training to younger officers by foreign experts
•   Overseas training
•   Recruitment of highly qualified people
•   Performance measurement and improvement system
    (PMIS)
Male 92%, female 8%
           SBP HR Profile
                            FY06    FY07    FY08
           SG-1              3       3       3
           OG-8               -      8       8
           OG-7              8       20      30
           OG-6              39      27      40
           OG-5             108     100     104
           OG-4             120     143     171
           OG-3             302     469     417
           OG-2             234     171     206
           OG-1             213     195     191
           Support staff    208     182     175
           Contract
                             54      22      59
           staff
           Total            1,339   1,340   1,404
HR policy for recruitment
• NTS provide services for bulk recruitment
• For limited recruitment, SBP has been adopting
  ‘Employer of Choice’ policy. During 2007-08, about
  166 graduates and professionals have been recruited
  by this policy.
• Online recruitment
Employee Turnover

Year      Involuntary   Voluntary   Total
            turnover    Turnover
2002-03       24           54        78

2003-04       21           37        58

2004-05       17           59        76

2005-06       19           73        92

2006-07       30           87       117

2007-08       13           75        88
Performance Measurement and
Improvement System (PMIS)
• Online system was introduced in 2002 which enable
  each employee to submit his/her planning,
  performance/achievements and appeal. Employees
  can also see their performance rankings on their own
  from ‘level 1’ (excellent) to ‘level 5’.
• The promotion policy was also linked with this
  performance.
• Appreciation letter were given by departmental
  heads to ‘level 1’ performers
Performance Bonus

            Bonus Amount (one time payment)
Grade
              For A rated      For B+ rated
              performers       performers
OG-6 to
                25,000           12,500
OG-8

OG-5            22,000           11,000

OG-4            17,500            8,750

OG-3            12,500            6,250

OG-2            10,000            5,000
Training and development

            Local Training (participant in numbers)

            Training
                             FY06        FY07         FY08
            areas
            Central
                              822         226         772
            Banking

            Management        809         356         579

            Total Local      1,631        582         1,351

            Total foreign
            Training           -          118         124


Internship/visit for local and foreign students
Some issues of labour market
Background
• The recent global financial crisis soared the global
  unemployment rates all around the globe.
• Within Asia, East-Asia was heavily effected, while
  South-Asia was less effected.
• Labor markets must have the flexibility to shift
  workers from one economic activity to another
  rapidly at low cost. Efficient labor markets must also
  ensure relationship between worker incentives and
  their efforts, as well as equity in the business
  environment between women and men.
Growth-poverty, employment
nexus
Ranking of Labour Market Efficiency in Selective Countries in 2010 (out of 139 countries)
Efficiency Indicators  Pakistan    China      India     Indonesia Malaysia     Thailand
Cooperation in labor-
                         104        58          49          47         16         34
employer relations
Flexibility of wage
                         104        56          61          98         44         90
determination
Rigidity of
                         110        78          77         100         18         25
employment
Hiring and firing
                          51        62          89          38         50         31
practices
Pay and productivity      93        15          61          20          6         29
Brain drain               68        37          34          27         28         38
Female participation
                         137        23         128         109         111        57
in labor force
Secondary education
                         125        92         108          95         99         96
enrollment rate
Source: Global Competitive Index Report, 2010
Demographic Trends and Decent Work Issues in Selective Countries
          Dependency
          Ratio           Formal Employment           Vulnerable Employment
          (per 100 people (2000-2008)                 (2000-2008)
Country ages 15–64)
          1990 2010       % of total   Ratio of       % of total   Ratio of
                          Employment female           employment female
                                       to male rates               to male rates
Pakistan 89.2 68.6        38.2         0.59           61.8         1.29
China     51.2 39.1       -            -              -            -
India     71.5 55.6       -            -              -            -
Indonesia 65.6 48.7       36.9         0.81           63.1         1.13
Malaysia 69.7 51.3        77.6         1.02           22.3         0.93
Thailand 53.0 41.2        46.6         0.90           53.3         -
Source: Human Development Report, 2010
Issues of Job mismatch
• Poor educational and labour policies lead to
  issues of job mismatch.
• A variety of socio-demographic characteristics,
  customs and barriers are causing the job
  mismatch especially for women in Pakistan .
• Educational system is not coping with the right
  demands of labour market and following a
  variety of tiers.
• The employment is not keeping pace with labour
  force participation.
• Imperfections are rising including rising job search
  periods, rising share of informal economy, rising risks
  of vulnerability and educated unemployment
  especially for female and youth.
• Job mismatch has three dimensions.
Distribution of the sampled graduates by occupation (%)
        Manager Professional Ass.         Clerical Elementary   Total
                             professional support occupations
LFS (2006-07)
Female 10.1       21.0         64.6         1.1       3.3       100
Male 27.3         19.0         27.5         10.4      15.8      100
Total 24.6        19.3         33.5         8.9       13.8      100
LFS (2008-09)
Female 8.5        22.7         64.6         1.4       2.8       100
Male 25.6         18.7         31.7         10.3      13.7      100
Total 23.1        19.3         36.6         9.0       12.1      100
SEG (2010)
Female 12.4       40.7         27.2         18.5      1.2       100
Male 20.6         29.0         33.7         12.9      3.7       100
Total 17.7        32.6         32.7         13.8      3.3       100
Distribution of sampled graduates by monthly Income in
categories
Monthly               SEG, 2010         LFS, 2008-09
Earning                              Fem
               Female Male Total           Male Total
(Rs)                                  ale
up to min.
                 11.1    3.7    4.9 21.4 9.4 11.3
wage*
Min. wage-
                 24.7 13.4 15.2 33.2 28.6 29.4
12000
12001-15000 19.8 10.2 11.7 12.7 15.4 14.9
15001-20000 14.8 18.2 17.7 14.9 17.4 17.0
20001-30000 12.4 24.5 22.6 11.8 15.2 14.6
30001-50000 16.1 20.3 19.7 4.7 11.9 10.8
50001 and
                  1.2    9.7    8.4   1.3    2.1   2.0
above
Total            100     100 100 100 100 100
*minimum wage is 6,000 for LFS, 2008-09 For SEG, 2010 is 7,000
The Employed Workers by Academic Qualification and Occupation in Pakistan
                                              Attained Education (in years)
Occupations              up to 5       6 to 10 12          14          16     M.Phill/Ph.D
Manager                  3,705         3,541     976       1,137       492    23
Professional             194           203       89        572         333    33
Technicians, assoc.      323           1,183     1,037     1,253       540    4
Clerical support         39            382       355       299         71     2
Service and sales        1,711         1,376     332       172         21     0
Skilled agricultural,    19,952        4,022     474       189         32     0
forestry and fishery
Craft and related trades 6,128         3,037      350      136        18      4
Machine operators, and 1,781           1,190      126      44         9       1
assemblers
Elementary occupations10,297           2,086      154      48         2       0
Source: Estimated from the Labour Force Survey, 2008-09
Federal Government Civil Servants by BPS and Academic Qualification
                           Academic Qualification (in years)
BPS Grades Doctorate Master Bachelor Intermediate Matric Others
1-2                   140      572        1,951            6,601 714
3-10                  3,669 1,2625        18,296           31,786 662
11-15                 6,927 1,2601        7,616            6,467 262
16                    3,309 3,921         1,564            1,128 123
17          102       3,324 2,355         307              141    66
18          138       2,010 1,308         104              29     25
19          72        1,149 438           8                1      18
20          47        544      144                                6
21          10        167      31         3
22          5         52       10
Source: Thirteen Census of Federal Government Civil Servants, 2003
The level of education-job mismatch by various approaches (%)
Datasets                 Matched   Under-educated   Over-educated
(LFS 2006-07) Female     65.7      4.4              30.0
              Male       69.4      9.7              20.9
              Total      68.8      8.9              22.3
(LFS 2008-09) Female     60.5      4.2              35.4
              Male       71.2      2.3              26.6
              Total      69.6      2.5              27.9
SEG, 2010     WSA        65.4      9.9              24.7
              JA         69.5      4.5              26.1
              RM         63.4      21.6             15.0
Distribution of respondents by the level of
qualification mismatch (%)
                             Under-        Over-
              Matched
                            qualified     qualified

Female           66.7         11.1            22.2

Male             72.8         13.9            13.4

Total            71.8         13.4            14.8

*based on the weights estimated by PCA approach
Marginal and joint distribution of education and
qualification match (%)
                                  Under-       Over-
                  Matched
                                 qualified    qualified
Job Analyst Method (JA)
Matched           52.0       10.3                  7.2
Under-
                   3.5       0.4                   0.6
educated
Over-
                  16.3        2.7                  7.0
educated
Worker Self Assessment Method (WSA)
Matched           48.8        9.0                  7.6
Under-
                   6.8       2.1                   1.0
educated
Over-
                  16.2        2.3                  6.2
educated
The % Distribution of the Respondents by Reported Field of
Study and Job Mismatch


Level of Mismatch        Female         Male         Total


Irrelevant                 14.8         10.6         11.3


Slightly relevant          18.5         12.9         13.8

Moderately
                           33.3         39.3         38.3
relevant
Completely
                           33.3         37.2         36.6
relevant
Government Policies and
Programmes

 •   Pakistan has so far launched six labour polices in 1955, 1959,
     1969, 1972, 2002 and 2010.
 •   During FY02-FY10 period, around 70-80 percent of the PRSP
     budget has been spent on only three sectors: human
     development, rural development and safety nets.
 •   Various micro-finance rozgar schemes are also assisting the
     poor.
 •   Labour Market Information and Analysis (LMIA) Unit was
     established in 2006.
 •   National Internship Program (NIP) was launched in 2007 to
     provide internship to educated youth.
 •   To develop skilled labour force, the government has established
     five Skill Development Councils (SDCs) one each at Islamabad,
     Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta.
 •   National Migration Policy 2008 to promote overseas migration
Silent features of Labour
Policy 2010
 •   The Government will insure full adherence of labour laws and
     workers with friendly environment in all establishments to promote
     decent work in the country.
 •   Raising the minimum wages by 16 percent from Rs. 6,000 to Rs.
     7,000 per month. All industrial, commercial and other
     establishments registered under any law shall pay wages to the
     employees through Cheque/Bank transfer.
 •   In order the monitor the implementation of labour laws pertaining
     to wage, working environment and time, a Tripartite Monitoring
     Committees will be set up at district, province and federal level.
 •   LIMA will be established through the creation of Human Resource
     Centers at various cities.
 •   Contract employees within the public sector will be regularized.
 •   A comprehensive Social Insurance for old-age benefits and health
     services will be introduced on self-registration/voluntary basis to
     allow all workers in formal and informal sector of economy,
     including self employed persons, to benefit from it.
 •   In cases where the social security hospital has no facilities for
     treatment, the worker shall be referred to any public/private
     hospital and the respective Social Security Institution will bear all
     costs of treatment.
Key objectives of NAVTEC Skill
strategy 2009-13
• Providing relevant skills for industrial & economic
  development through introducing competency based
  training, increasing the role of the private sector and
  encouraging entrepreneurship.
• Improving access, equity and employability by
  focusing on skills for women, disadvantaged groups,
  providing career guidance to youth and vocational
  education in schools
• Assuring quality by streamlining policymaking,
  establishing a national qualifications framework,
  research and training of trainers
Diagnostic Analysis of Binding
Constraints
Policy gaps and poor implementation and lack of
     targeting policies

• Pakistan has long history of social action programs i.e.
  land reforms, Village Aid program (1952–1961), Rural
  Works Programme (1963–1972), People’s Works
  Programme (1972–1982), the Integrated Rural
  Development Programme (1972–1980), the Five-
  Point Programme (1985–1988), the Tameer-e-Watan
  Programme (1991), Social Action Programme I & II
  (1985–2002) and PRSP (2001-onward).
• SAP, a targeted program also remained fail because of
  underutilization of funds (less than 60 percent budget
  was consumed out of allocated Rs. 600 billion), lack
  of awareness, absence of people’s participation, and
  centralized decision-making.
Saving Investment as percentage of GDP (Current prices)
25

20

15

10

5
                          1978
     1972
            1974
                   1976


                                 1980
                                        1982
                                               1984
                                                       1986
                                                              1988
                                                                      1990
                                                                             1992
                                                                                    1994
                                                                                           1996
                                                                                                  1998
                                                                                                         2000
                                                                                                                2002
                                                                                                                       2004
                                                                                                                              2006
                                                                                                                                     2008
                                                                                                                                            2010
                                                        Saving               Investment

                                                                     Education and Health Expenditure (% of GNP)
                                  3.5
                                                                                              3
                                    3
                                                                                                                              2.7
                                  2.5
                                    2             1.6
                                  1.5
                                    1

                                                      1980s                            1990s                             2000s
Weak institution, poor governance and
deteriorated law & order situation
          Governance Indicators
          Indicators                                         Index
          Judicial independence                             74/139
          Irregular payments and bribes                    117/139
          Property rights                                  107/139
          Favoritism in decisions of
                                                            87/139
          government officials
          Business cost of terrorism                       138/139
          Organized crime                                  127/139
          corruption                                       139/180
          Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11; Transparency
          international, 2009
         • Rising expenditure on ‘war on terror’; $68 billion
         during 2002-10 period
Regional Inequality in Public Provision
                 and Infrastructure
Rural Infrastructure by Provinces
                                                            Balochista
                                    Punjab   Sindh   KPK
                                                                n
               Distance to
               Metal road<1          80       67     38        20
               km
Physical
               Electricity            47      10      34       12
Infrastructure
               Soling street          66      30      29        8
               Drain                  58      23      19        7
               Piped water             9       7      20        9
Soft           Edu. Institute         34     37.5    33.3     22.3
Infrastructure Health Institute      30.5    27.3    24.5     11.3

Source: MOUZA statistics, 2008
Macroeconomic instability
                      Development budget (% of GDP)
8
    7.3
6         4.7                               4.8
4               3.5         2.2                                     3.4
2
0




                Overall macro environment
                                                          133/139
                Index
                Inflation                                 137/139

                Country credit rating                     125/139

                Quality of electricity Supply             128/139
                Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11
Poverty levels in China and
Pakistan, 1978-2005
• In 1978, rural poverty in both China and Pakistan was
  around 33 percent. In 2005, it was 28 percent in
  Pakistan and only 2.5 percent in China.
• Fluctuations in Poverty in Pakistan during last three
  decades (1960s, 1980s, 2007/08)
• Urban poverty in Pakistan has also been higher than
  China.
Rural Population living below the poverty
                   line (in millions)

                      40                                   38
250                   35                              32
                      30                         29             29

                      25                    24

                      20    19   18

                      15               14

                      10

                       5
                 25
                       0
                           1978 1985 1990 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005



      China                           Pakistan
Policy implications and
recommendations
•   Create socio-economic assets for the poor
•   Ensure macroeconomic and political stability
•   Integration of markets - development of non-farm sector to
    generate employment opportunities
•   Remove regional socio-economic disparities
•   Need massive public investment on education and
    health, particularly the technical education
•   Planned urbanization is engine of employment generation
•   Include the role of private sector
•   Coordination among various demand and supply side
    stakeholders of labour market is prerequisite
•   Ensure equality and quality of education across the regions
    and institutes with dynamic education policy
•   Tracer type studies should be conducted to understand the
    employment patterns and skills demanded by economy
•   Knowledge based policies for youth and for female
•   Improve the labour market information system
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Labour Market in Pakistan Issues and Implications

  • 1. Labour Market in Pakistan; Issues and Implications
  • 2. Overview of presentation • An overview of Labour force survey of Pakistan • Review of labour market of Pakistan • Status of achieving MD goals • Some issues of labour market • Government policies/initiatives for increasing skills and employment • Binding constraints to raise skill and employment • Policy recommendations for fixing binding constraints
  • 3. Population Active Population Inactive Population Employed Unemployed
  • 4. Introduction of LFS • Federal Bureau of Statistics has been carrying out Labour Force Survey (LFS) since 1963. • The questionnaire was revised overtime. • Since 2005, the quarterly survey practice has been launched. • The sample size of 2009-10 survey is 36,400 households, enumerated in 4 quarters.
  • 5. Information in LFS • Socio-demographic characteristics of population ; • Information on dimensions of labour force; i.e. number of persons employed, unemployed, underemployed or out of labour market; • Facts on the engagement in major occupational trades and the nature of work undertaken by the institutions/organizations; • Data on wages, mode of payment and occupations; • Assessment on occupational health and safety of employed persons by causes, type of treatment, conditions that caused the accident/injury and time of recovery; and • Data on the characteristics of unemployed persons including previous job, waiting time invested in the quest for work, their availability for work and expectations for future employment.
  • 6. Introduction • The sixth most populous country in the world. • 180 million population with 2.05% growth rate. • 54.92 million labour force (42.44 million male and 12.48 million female) with an annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. • Rural areas have almost more than double share in the total employment .
  • 7. Sex-ratio of population of Pakistan (male/female) Census LFS 2007- LFS 2009- 1998 08 10 Pakistan 108 106 106 Rural 106 105 105 Urban 112 108 108 Punjab 115 103 104 Sindh 104 115 114 KPK 107 101 100 Balochistan 112 113 113
  • 8. Literacy rate of population Pakistan Census 1998 LFS 2009-10 Total Male Female Total Male Female Pakistan 45 56.5 32.6 57.7 69.5 45.2 Rural 34.4 47.4 20.8 49.2 63.6 34.2 Urban 64.7 72.6 55.6 73.2 80.2 65.5 Punjab 47.4 58.7 35.3 59.6 69.1 49.8 Rural 38.5 51.3 25.1 52.5 64.0 40.7 Urban 65.8 73.4 57.2 73.5 78.9 67.8 Sindh 46.7 56.6 35.4 58.2 70.2 44.3 Rural 27 39.5 13.1 41.0 58.2 20.3 Urban 65.2 72.1 57.1 74.9 82.2 66.8 KPK 37.3 52.8 21.1 50.9 70.1 32.3 Rural 32.5 48.2 16.7 48.4 68.3 29.1 Urban 58.7 72.4 42.7 62.7 77.8 47.4 Balochistan 26.6 36.5 15 51.5 69.2 29.3 Rural 18.9 27.8 8.8 45.7 64.2 22.5 Urban 50.3 62.4 35.3 69.6 85.0 50.6
  • 9. Level of education- distribution of population 10+ years of age by sex (%) LFS 1999-2000 LFS 2009-10 Level of education Total male female Total male female A. Literate 46.5 59 33.3 57.7 69.5 45.2 No formal education 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 Below matric 31.3 39.2 23 37.5 44.9 29.5 Matric but below inter 8.7 11.2 6 10.7 13.1 8 Inter but below degree 3.3 4.2 2.4 4.7 5.6 3.8 Degree and above 2.7 3.8 1.5 4.3 5.3 3.4 B. Illiterate 53.5 41 66.7 42.3 30.5 54.8
  • 10. Labour force participation rates • Crude activity rate (CAR) • Refined activity rate (RAR) • Specific Activity Rates (inverted U-shape in nature
  • 11. 2000/0 2001/0 2005/0 2006/0 2007/0 2008/0 1 2 6 7 8 9 Crude participation rates Overall - 29.6 - - - 32.8 Male - 48 - - - 49.6 Female - 9.9 - - - 14.9 Refined participation Rate (overall 10+) Overall 50.4 50.5 53 52.5 52.5 - Male 83.2 82.7 84 83.1 82.4 - Female 16.3 16.2 21.1 21.3 21.8 - Refined Participation Rate for Youth (15-24) Overall 40.5 43.4 45.9 44.2 - - Male 69.3 70.2 72.2 69.2 - - Female 10.2 14.8 18.6 18.4 - - Source: various editions of LFS
  • 12. Demographic dividend in Pakistan • Situation of moving from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and mortality…. • This transition has brought sizeable changes in the age distribution of population. • Is a “demographic gift” to the economy
  • 13. Age composition of Pakistan, 1998-2030 80 70 67 61 63.6 60 53 50 43 40 35 31.8 30 27 20 10 4 4 6 6 0 1998 (TFR 4.8) 2010 (TFR 3.49) 2020 (TFR 2.8) 2030 (TFR 2.1) below 15 15-64 65 and above
  • 14. Unemployment rates for Adult and for Youth (%) FY01 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Change b/w 2000 & final Unemployment rates for overall (%) Overall 6 7.8 8.3 7.6 6.2 5.2 5.2 -0.8 Male 5.5 6.2 6.2 5.2 4.2 4.3 - -1.1 Female 15.8 16.4 12.9 9.6 8.6 8.5 - -7.3 Rural 6.9 7.5 6.7 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 -2.2 Urban 9.9 9.8 9.7 8 6.6 8.3 7.1 -2.8 Unemployment Rate for Youth (15-24) Overall 13.3 13.4 11.7 8.6 7.5 - - -5.9 Male 11.1 12 11 8.4 7.1 - - -4.0 Female 29.3 20.5 14.9 9.6 8.9 - - -20.4 Urban 16.8 16.1 15 11.8 10.5 - - -6.3 Rural 11.7 12.1 10.1 7.2 6.1 - - -5.6
  • 15. Unemployment rate (%) in Pakistan and 16 China, 1980-2010 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1994 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 China Pakistan Source: International Financial Statistics (1980-2003); www.indexmundi.com (2004-2010)
  • 16. Employment –to-Population Ratio among Adults and Youth in Pakistan Chang 2000/ 2001/ 2003/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ e 2000 01 02 04 06 07 08 and 2008 Employment-to-population ratio in Pakistan for Adult Overall 46.8 46.5 47.0 49.7 49.8 49.9 + 3.1 Male 78.6 77.6 77.6 79.6 79.6 79.1 + 0.5 Femal 13.7 13.6 15.6 19.0 19.4 19.9 + 6.2 e Employment-to-population ratio in South Asia for Adult Overall 58 57.3 56.7 56.7 - - Male 80 78.8 78.4 78.2 - - Femal 34 34.4 33.8 34.0 - - e Youth Employment-to-population ratio Overall 35.1 37.6 38.5 42.0 40.9 - + 5.8 Male 61.6 61.8 62.7 66.1 64.2 - + 2.6
  • 17. Distribution of employed Labour force by major industry 1999-2000 2009-10 Major industry divisions Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Agriculture, forestry, 48.4 44.4 72.9 45.0 36.6 74.9 hunting and fishing Manufacturing and mining 11.6 12.1 8.4 13.2 13.9 11.0 Construction 5.8 6.6 0.5 6.7 8.5 0.3 Wholesale and retail trade 13.5 15.3 2.6 16.3 20.2 2.1 Transport, storage and 5 5.8 0.2 5.2 6.6 0.3 communication Community services and 14.2 14.1 15.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 personal services Others* 1.5 1.7 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.2 *Others (includes mining & quarrying, electricity, gas & water, financing, insurance, real estate & business services and extraterritorial organizations and bodies)
  • 18. Trends in % distribution of employed persons by major industry in Pakistan 75 12 70 10 8 65 6 60 4 55 2 50 0 1974-75 1982-83 1990-91 2001-02 2007-08 Agriculture social and personal services Wholesale and retail
  • 19. Employed: Major Occupational Groups LFS 1999-2000 LFS 2009-10 Occupations Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Managers 11 12.4 2.3 12 14.8 1.8 Professionals 2.2 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 associate professionals 4.2 3.8 6.4 5.1 4.8 6.2 Clerical workers 1.6 1.8 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.1 Service and sales workers 4.6 5.3 0.4 4.9 6.1 0.8 Skilled agricultural, workers 40 37.4 56.4 37.9 31 62.7 Craft and related trades workers 15.1 15.9 9.6 14.6 15.6 10.9 Machine operators, and assemblers 3.3 3.8 0.2 3.9 4.9 0.1 Elementary occupations 18.1 17.5 22.1 18.5 19.1 16
  • 20. Distribution of employed by employment status LFS 1999-2000 LFS 2009-10 Employment status Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Employers 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.1 Self-employed 42.2 46.4 16.7 34.2 40 13.6 Unpaid family helpers 21.4 16.7 50.1 29.1 18.7 66.3 Employees 35.6 36 33.1 35.4 39.7 20
  • 21. Status of Achieving Labour market Related MD Goals
  • 22. MDG goals • Regarding education, MD goal was to achieve universal primary education. • Regarding the labour market, the initial MDGs only covered the gender equality by promoting share in non-agriculture jobs. It were revised in 2007 and the employment efficiency has also been included. i. Growth rate of labour productivity (GDP per person employed); ii. Employment-to-population ratio; iii. Proportion of employed people living below the poverty line; and iv. vulnerable employment rate.
  • 23. Education related MDGs MTDF MDG 2001- 2005- 2008- Target 1990-91 Target 02 06 09 2009/1 2015 0 Net primary enrolment ratio (%) 46 42 53 57 77 100 Completion/survival rate 1 50 57.3 72.1 54.6 80 100 grade to 5 (%) Literacy rate overall 35 45 54 57 77 88 Male 48 55 65 69 85 89 Female 21 35 42 45 66 87
  • 24. MDG indicator of women share in non-agriculture employment MTDF MDG Target Indicator 1990 2001 2006 2008 Target 2009/1 2015 0 Share of women in wage employment 8.07 9.65 10.53 10.64 12 14 in the non- agricultural sector Source: MDG Country Report, 2010
  • 25. Vulnerable employment • Vulnerable employment is the proportion of own- account and contributing family workers in total employment
  • 26. Vulnerable Employment in Adults and Youth Change FY00 FY02 FY04 FY07 FY00 to FY07 Adult (15+) Both 63.1 58.7 60.6 60.6 -2.5 Sexes Males 62.5 58.1 59.0 57.3 -5.2 Females 66.7 62.6 68.4 74.6 +7.9 Youth (15-24) Both 60.0 55.8 59.1 58.1 -1.9 Sexes Males 60.1 55.5 57.5 54.9 -5.3 Females 59.1 57.3 66.2 71.1 +12.0
  • 27. Working Poor (%) 1996 2006 Pakistan US$ 1 day 13.4 8.7 US$ 2 day 71.4 58.8 South Asia US$ 1 day 55.9 34.6 US$ 2 day 91.7 80.7 Source: ILO, Working Poverty Model, October 2007, Geneva Pakistan has a lower percentage of working poor compared to overall south Asia.
  • 28. Labour productivity “per hours” worked, by sector (constant factor cost in PKR) (15+) FY00 FY04 FY06 FY07 National 44.3 45.9 48.0 50.3 Agriculture 24.8 26.6 28.1 28.9 Mining 1389.3 1855.0 1129.6 1084.1 Manufacturing 56.5 56.8 63.4 67.1 Electricity, gas 250.7 249.6 155.8 140.1 and water Construction 19.5 15.7 17.2 18.4 Wholesale and 50.1 48.0 47.2 49.1 retail trade Transport and 84.9 73.7 68.3 75.2 communication Finance 360.2 248.7 317.7 337.3 Social Services 49.6 50.1 53.5 55.7
  • 30. Key HR Policies of SBP • Training to younger officers by foreign experts • Overseas training • Recruitment of highly qualified people • Performance measurement and improvement system (PMIS)
  • 31. Male 92%, female 8% SBP HR Profile FY06 FY07 FY08 SG-1 3 3 3 OG-8 - 8 8 OG-7 8 20 30 OG-6 39 27 40 OG-5 108 100 104 OG-4 120 143 171 OG-3 302 469 417 OG-2 234 171 206 OG-1 213 195 191 Support staff 208 182 175 Contract 54 22 59 staff Total 1,339 1,340 1,404
  • 32. HR policy for recruitment • NTS provide services for bulk recruitment • For limited recruitment, SBP has been adopting ‘Employer of Choice’ policy. During 2007-08, about 166 graduates and professionals have been recruited by this policy. • Online recruitment
  • 33. Employee Turnover Year Involuntary Voluntary Total turnover Turnover 2002-03 24 54 78 2003-04 21 37 58 2004-05 17 59 76 2005-06 19 73 92 2006-07 30 87 117 2007-08 13 75 88
  • 34. Performance Measurement and Improvement System (PMIS) • Online system was introduced in 2002 which enable each employee to submit his/her planning, performance/achievements and appeal. Employees can also see their performance rankings on their own from ‘level 1’ (excellent) to ‘level 5’. • The promotion policy was also linked with this performance. • Appreciation letter were given by departmental heads to ‘level 1’ performers
  • 35. Performance Bonus Bonus Amount (one time payment) Grade For A rated For B+ rated performers performers OG-6 to 25,000 12,500 OG-8 OG-5 22,000 11,000 OG-4 17,500 8,750 OG-3 12,500 6,250 OG-2 10,000 5,000
  • 36. Training and development Local Training (participant in numbers) Training FY06 FY07 FY08 areas Central 822 226 772 Banking Management 809 356 579 Total Local 1,631 582 1,351 Total foreign Training - 118 124 Internship/visit for local and foreign students
  • 37. Some issues of labour market
  • 38. Background • The recent global financial crisis soared the global unemployment rates all around the globe. • Within Asia, East-Asia was heavily effected, while South-Asia was less effected. • Labor markets must have the flexibility to shift workers from one economic activity to another rapidly at low cost. Efficient labor markets must also ensure relationship between worker incentives and their efforts, as well as equity in the business environment between women and men.
  • 40. Ranking of Labour Market Efficiency in Selective Countries in 2010 (out of 139 countries) Efficiency Indicators Pakistan China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Cooperation in labor- 104 58 49 47 16 34 employer relations Flexibility of wage 104 56 61 98 44 90 determination Rigidity of 110 78 77 100 18 25 employment Hiring and firing 51 62 89 38 50 31 practices Pay and productivity 93 15 61 20 6 29 Brain drain 68 37 34 27 28 38 Female participation 137 23 128 109 111 57 in labor force Secondary education 125 92 108 95 99 96 enrollment rate Source: Global Competitive Index Report, 2010
  • 41. Demographic Trends and Decent Work Issues in Selective Countries Dependency Ratio Formal Employment Vulnerable Employment (per 100 people (2000-2008) (2000-2008) Country ages 15–64) 1990 2010 % of total Ratio of % of total Ratio of Employment female employment female to male rates to male rates Pakistan 89.2 68.6 38.2 0.59 61.8 1.29 China 51.2 39.1 - - - - India 71.5 55.6 - - - - Indonesia 65.6 48.7 36.9 0.81 63.1 1.13 Malaysia 69.7 51.3 77.6 1.02 22.3 0.93 Thailand 53.0 41.2 46.6 0.90 53.3 - Source: Human Development Report, 2010
  • 42.
  • 43. Issues of Job mismatch • Poor educational and labour policies lead to issues of job mismatch. • A variety of socio-demographic characteristics, customs and barriers are causing the job mismatch especially for women in Pakistan . • Educational system is not coping with the right demands of labour market and following a variety of tiers. • The employment is not keeping pace with labour force participation. • Imperfections are rising including rising job search periods, rising share of informal economy, rising risks of vulnerability and educated unemployment especially for female and youth. • Job mismatch has three dimensions.
  • 44. Distribution of the sampled graduates by occupation (%) Manager Professional Ass. Clerical Elementary Total professional support occupations LFS (2006-07) Female 10.1 21.0 64.6 1.1 3.3 100 Male 27.3 19.0 27.5 10.4 15.8 100 Total 24.6 19.3 33.5 8.9 13.8 100 LFS (2008-09) Female 8.5 22.7 64.6 1.4 2.8 100 Male 25.6 18.7 31.7 10.3 13.7 100 Total 23.1 19.3 36.6 9.0 12.1 100 SEG (2010) Female 12.4 40.7 27.2 18.5 1.2 100 Male 20.6 29.0 33.7 12.9 3.7 100 Total 17.7 32.6 32.7 13.8 3.3 100
  • 45. Distribution of sampled graduates by monthly Income in categories Monthly SEG, 2010 LFS, 2008-09 Earning Fem Female Male Total Male Total (Rs) ale up to min. 11.1 3.7 4.9 21.4 9.4 11.3 wage* Min. wage- 24.7 13.4 15.2 33.2 28.6 29.4 12000 12001-15000 19.8 10.2 11.7 12.7 15.4 14.9 15001-20000 14.8 18.2 17.7 14.9 17.4 17.0 20001-30000 12.4 24.5 22.6 11.8 15.2 14.6 30001-50000 16.1 20.3 19.7 4.7 11.9 10.8 50001 and 1.2 9.7 8.4 1.3 2.1 2.0 above Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 *minimum wage is 6,000 for LFS, 2008-09 For SEG, 2010 is 7,000
  • 46. The Employed Workers by Academic Qualification and Occupation in Pakistan Attained Education (in years) Occupations up to 5 6 to 10 12 14 16 M.Phill/Ph.D Manager 3,705 3,541 976 1,137 492 23 Professional 194 203 89 572 333 33 Technicians, assoc. 323 1,183 1,037 1,253 540 4 Clerical support 39 382 355 299 71 2 Service and sales 1,711 1,376 332 172 21 0 Skilled agricultural, 19,952 4,022 474 189 32 0 forestry and fishery Craft and related trades 6,128 3,037 350 136 18 4 Machine operators, and 1,781 1,190 126 44 9 1 assemblers Elementary occupations10,297 2,086 154 48 2 0 Source: Estimated from the Labour Force Survey, 2008-09
  • 47. Federal Government Civil Servants by BPS and Academic Qualification Academic Qualification (in years) BPS Grades Doctorate Master Bachelor Intermediate Matric Others 1-2 140 572 1,951 6,601 714 3-10 3,669 1,2625 18,296 31,786 662 11-15 6,927 1,2601 7,616 6,467 262 16 3,309 3,921 1,564 1,128 123 17 102 3,324 2,355 307 141 66 18 138 2,010 1,308 104 29 25 19 72 1,149 438 8 1 18 20 47 544 144 6 21 10 167 31 3 22 5 52 10 Source: Thirteen Census of Federal Government Civil Servants, 2003
  • 48. The level of education-job mismatch by various approaches (%) Datasets Matched Under-educated Over-educated (LFS 2006-07) Female 65.7 4.4 30.0 Male 69.4 9.7 20.9 Total 68.8 8.9 22.3 (LFS 2008-09) Female 60.5 4.2 35.4 Male 71.2 2.3 26.6 Total 69.6 2.5 27.9 SEG, 2010 WSA 65.4 9.9 24.7 JA 69.5 4.5 26.1 RM 63.4 21.6 15.0
  • 49. Distribution of respondents by the level of qualification mismatch (%) Under- Over- Matched qualified qualified Female 66.7 11.1 22.2 Male 72.8 13.9 13.4 Total 71.8 13.4 14.8 *based on the weights estimated by PCA approach
  • 50. Marginal and joint distribution of education and qualification match (%) Under- Over- Matched qualified qualified Job Analyst Method (JA) Matched 52.0 10.3 7.2 Under- 3.5 0.4 0.6 educated Over- 16.3 2.7 7.0 educated Worker Self Assessment Method (WSA) Matched 48.8 9.0 7.6 Under- 6.8 2.1 1.0 educated Over- 16.2 2.3 6.2 educated
  • 51. The % Distribution of the Respondents by Reported Field of Study and Job Mismatch Level of Mismatch Female Male Total Irrelevant 14.8 10.6 11.3 Slightly relevant 18.5 12.9 13.8 Moderately 33.3 39.3 38.3 relevant Completely 33.3 37.2 36.6 relevant
  • 52. Government Policies and Programmes • Pakistan has so far launched six labour polices in 1955, 1959, 1969, 1972, 2002 and 2010. • During FY02-FY10 period, around 70-80 percent of the PRSP budget has been spent on only three sectors: human development, rural development and safety nets. • Various micro-finance rozgar schemes are also assisting the poor. • Labour Market Information and Analysis (LMIA) Unit was established in 2006. • National Internship Program (NIP) was launched in 2007 to provide internship to educated youth. • To develop skilled labour force, the government has established five Skill Development Councils (SDCs) one each at Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta. • National Migration Policy 2008 to promote overseas migration
  • 53. Silent features of Labour Policy 2010 • The Government will insure full adherence of labour laws and workers with friendly environment in all establishments to promote decent work in the country. • Raising the minimum wages by 16 percent from Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 7,000 per month. All industrial, commercial and other establishments registered under any law shall pay wages to the employees through Cheque/Bank transfer. • In order the monitor the implementation of labour laws pertaining to wage, working environment and time, a Tripartite Monitoring Committees will be set up at district, province and federal level. • LIMA will be established through the creation of Human Resource Centers at various cities. • Contract employees within the public sector will be regularized. • A comprehensive Social Insurance for old-age benefits and health services will be introduced on self-registration/voluntary basis to allow all workers in formal and informal sector of economy, including self employed persons, to benefit from it. • In cases where the social security hospital has no facilities for treatment, the worker shall be referred to any public/private hospital and the respective Social Security Institution will bear all costs of treatment.
  • 54. Key objectives of NAVTEC Skill strategy 2009-13 • Providing relevant skills for industrial & economic development through introducing competency based training, increasing the role of the private sector and encouraging entrepreneurship. • Improving access, equity and employability by focusing on skills for women, disadvantaged groups, providing career guidance to youth and vocational education in schools • Assuring quality by streamlining policymaking, establishing a national qualifications framework, research and training of trainers
  • 55. Diagnostic Analysis of Binding Constraints Policy gaps and poor implementation and lack of targeting policies • Pakistan has long history of social action programs i.e. land reforms, Village Aid program (1952–1961), Rural Works Programme (1963–1972), People’s Works Programme (1972–1982), the Integrated Rural Development Programme (1972–1980), the Five- Point Programme (1985–1988), the Tameer-e-Watan Programme (1991), Social Action Programme I & II (1985–2002) and PRSP (2001-onward). • SAP, a targeted program also remained fail because of underutilization of funds (less than 60 percent budget was consumed out of allocated Rs. 600 billion), lack of awareness, absence of people’s participation, and centralized decision-making.
  • 56. Saving Investment as percentage of GDP (Current prices) 25 20 15 10 5 1978 1972 1974 1976 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Saving Investment Education and Health Expenditure (% of GNP) 3.5 3 3 2.7 2.5 2 1.6 1.5 1 1980s 1990s 2000s
  • 57. Weak institution, poor governance and deteriorated law & order situation Governance Indicators Indicators Index Judicial independence 74/139 Irregular payments and bribes 117/139 Property rights 107/139 Favoritism in decisions of 87/139 government officials Business cost of terrorism 138/139 Organized crime 127/139 corruption 139/180 Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11; Transparency international, 2009 • Rising expenditure on ‘war on terror’; $68 billion during 2002-10 period
  • 58. Regional Inequality in Public Provision and Infrastructure Rural Infrastructure by Provinces Balochista Punjab Sindh KPK n Distance to Metal road<1 80 67 38 20 km Physical Electricity 47 10 34 12 Infrastructure Soling street 66 30 29 8 Drain 58 23 19 7 Piped water 9 7 20 9 Soft Edu. Institute 34 37.5 33.3 22.3 Infrastructure Health Institute 30.5 27.3 24.5 11.3 Source: MOUZA statistics, 2008
  • 59. Macroeconomic instability Development budget (% of GDP) 8 7.3 6 4.7 4.8 4 3.5 2.2 3.4 2 0 Overall macro environment 133/139 Index Inflation 137/139 Country credit rating 125/139 Quality of electricity Supply 128/139 Source: Global Competitiveness report: 2010-11
  • 60. Poverty levels in China and Pakistan, 1978-2005 • In 1978, rural poverty in both China and Pakistan was around 33 percent. In 2005, it was 28 percent in Pakistan and only 2.5 percent in China. • Fluctuations in Poverty in Pakistan during last three decades (1960s, 1980s, 2007/08) • Urban poverty in Pakistan has also been higher than China.
  • 61. Rural Population living below the poverty line (in millions) 40 38 250 35 32 30 29 29 25 24 20 19 18 15 14 10 5 25 0 1978 1985 1990 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 China Pakistan
  • 62. Policy implications and recommendations • Create socio-economic assets for the poor • Ensure macroeconomic and political stability • Integration of markets - development of non-farm sector to generate employment opportunities • Remove regional socio-economic disparities • Need massive public investment on education and health, particularly the technical education • Planned urbanization is engine of employment generation • Include the role of private sector • Coordination among various demand and supply side stakeholders of labour market is prerequisite • Ensure equality and quality of education across the regions and institutes with dynamic education policy • Tracer type studies should be conducted to understand the employment patterns and skills demanded by economy • Knowledge based policies for youth and for female • Improve the labour market information system
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