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China’s Livestock & Feed Market Review 2010 and Outlook 2011     9 March, 2011   Fang Shi Jun  Senior Analyst, eFeedLink
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Review of China’s livestock market in 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Annual Output Variation of Swine, Layer, Broiler, Aqua, Ruminants, and Other Species (2005-2010)   Swine Output Layer Output Broiler Output Aqua Output Ruminant Output Others Output Total Output 2010/09Y -1.94% +1.03% -1.12% -2.17% +2.26% +3.19% -0.83% 2009/08Y +0.26% -0.93% -6.15% +2.54% -9.31% +2.12% -1.44% 2008/07Y +7.46% -4.05% -12.67% -3.10% 7.20% -0.64% +2.07% 2007/06Y -2.53% +11.66% +16.85% -2.13% +13.45% +15.70% +6.55% 2006/05Y -7.98% -8.19% -5.02% +4.73% +11.09% +5.27% -5.50%
Review of China’s livestock market in 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China’s livestock market  in 2010 Data Source: eFeedLink
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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Review of China’s feed market in 2010
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Review of China’s feed market in 2010
Data Source: eFeedLink
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[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on livestock market in 2011  Data Source: eFeedLink Forecast on the % output changes of  swine,layer,broiler,aqua,ruminants, and others in 2011   Swine Output Layer Output Broiler Output Aqua Output Ruminant Output others Total Output 2011/10Y +1.91% +1.50% +3.66% +1.85% +1.63% +2.73% +2.34% 2010/09Y -1.94% +1.03% -1.12% -2.17% +2.26% +3.19% -0.83% 2009/08Y +0.26% -0.93% -6.15% +2.54% -7.31% +2.14% -1.64%
Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 - Swine
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 - Layer
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 - Broiler
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 - Aquaculture
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on China’s livestock market in 2011 - Ruminants
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Long-term factors affecting China’s livestock market
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China’s feed market projections 2011  Data Source: eFeedLink Animal production drives changes in feed output Feed   Swine Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin-ants Others Total 2011/10 +2.65% +0.64% +5.03% 2.33% +1.56% +3.18% 3.08%     ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑   Animal Produc-tion   Live Pig Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin- ants Others Total 2011/10 +1.91% +1.50% +3.66% +1.85% +1.63% +2.73% +2.34%
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlook on market of feed raw materials in 2011
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Long-term issues affecting China’s feed market
Review on raw material price movement in 2009/10  (RMB/MT) Data Source: eFeedLink Corn Soymeal Rapeseed Meal Cottonseed meal Fishmeal 2010Y Annual avg. price 1942.46  3160.08  2236.50  2472.17  11876.33  2009Y Annual avg. price 1655.50  3368.00  1910.50  2181.20  8364.40  10/09 price change in % 17.25% -6.03% 16.99% 13.42% 43.33% 10-09 Price change in RMB 285.50  -203.00  324.50  292.80  3624.60
Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 10Y 1825  1824  1852  1919  1958  1971  1964  1977  1981  1982  1996  2040  1941  09Y 1471  1485  1568  1599  1606  1618  1687  1733  1785  1744  1766  1805  1656  10/09 24.1% 22.8% 18.1% 20.0% 21.9% 21.9% 16.5% 14.1% 11.0% 13.6% 13.0% 13.0% 17.2%
Corn price 2006-2010 RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan  Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2010 1825  1824  1852  1919  1958  1971  1963  1976  1981  1982  2019  2036  1942  2009 1471  1485  1568  1599  1606  1618  1687  1733  1785  1744  1766  1805  1656 2008 1673  1671  1669  1655  1697  1708  1735  1732  1726  1676  1617  1501  1672 2007 1504  1496  1500  1492  1538  1580  1573  1565  1577  1576  1644  1704  1562 2006 1232  1247  1261  1253  1307  1346  1355  1357  1374  1343  1396  1493  1331
Soybean supply in quantity (2002-2011)  (K MT)    Domestic Production Import Export Total Supply Imp/Total supply Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compareto last yr Volume Compare to last yr 2002 16400   11310    259    25951    43.6% 2003 15390 -6.2% 20744  83.4% 267  3.0% 34367  32.4% 60.4% 2004 17400 13.1% 20230  -2.5% 334  25.2% 35796  4.2% 56.5% 2005 16350 -6.0% 26590  31.4% 397  18.6% 41044  14.7% 64.8% 2006 16200 -0.9% 28270  6.3% 379  -4.4% 42591  3.8% 66.4% 2007 14000 -13.6% 30820  9.0% 457  20.4% 42864  0.6% 71.9% 2008 16500 17.9% 37440  21.5% 468  2.6% 51972  21.2% 72.0% 2009 14500 -12.1% 42550  13.6% 346  -26.2% 55204  6.2% 77.1% 2010 15000 3.4% 54800  28.8% 350  1.2% 67950  23.1% 80.6% 2011 15000 0.0% 57500  4.9% 360  2.9% 70640  4.0% 81.4%
Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 10Y 3351  3158  3066  3054  2944  2802  2981  3184  3215  3451  3410  3368  3165  09Y 3490  3254  2964  3267  3177  3439  3366  3454  3407  3490  3562  3546  3368  10/09 -4.0% -3.0% 3.4% -6.5% -7.3% -18.5% -11.4% -7.8% -5.6% -1.1% -4.3% -5.0% -6.0%
Soymeal market price 2006-2010  RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 2010 3351  3158  3066  3054  2044  2802  2981  3184  3215  3451  3438  3277  3160  2009 3490  3254  2964  3267  3177  3439  3366  3454  3407  3490  3562  3546  3368  2008 3634  3791  3843  3669  3852  4381  4502  4011  3867  3304  3258  3041  3763  2007 2198  2369  2477  2322  2353  2315  2437  2736  3218  3367  3716  3720  2769  2006 2398  2381  2270  2121  2109  2063  2066  2056  2124  2162  2296  2193  2187
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Fang Shijun: China’s Livestock & Feed Market Review 2010 and Outlook 2011 (english)

  • 1. China’s Livestock & Feed Market Review 2010 and Outlook 2011 9 March, 2011 Fang Shi Jun Senior Analyst, eFeedLink
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  • 8. China’s livestock market in 2010 Data Source: eFeedLink
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  • 24. China’s feed market projections 2011 Data Source: eFeedLink Animal production drives changes in feed output Feed   Swine Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin-ants Others Total 2011/10 +2.65% +0.64% +5.03% 2.33% +1.56% +3.18% 3.08%     ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑   Animal Produc-tion   Live Pig Layer Broiler Aqua Rumin- ants Others Total 2011/10 +1.91% +1.50% +3.66% +1.85% +1.63% +2.73% +2.34%
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  • 27. Review on raw material price movement in 2009/10 (RMB/MT) Data Source: eFeedLink Corn Soymeal Rapeseed Meal Cottonseed meal Fishmeal 2010Y Annual avg. price 1942.46 3160.08 2236.50 2472.17 11876.33 2009Y Annual avg. price 1655.50 3368.00 1910.50 2181.20 8364.40 10/09 price change in % 17.25% -6.03% 16.99% 13.42% 43.33% 10-09 Price change in RMB 285.50 -203.00 324.50 292.80 3624.60
  • 28. Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 10Y 1825 1824 1852 1919 1958 1971 1964 1977 1981 1982 1996 2040 1941 09Y 1471 1485 1568 1599 1606 1618 1687 1733 1785 1744 1766 1805 1656 10/09 24.1% 22.8% 18.1% 20.0% 21.9% 21.9% 16.5% 14.1% 11.0% 13.6% 13.0% 13.0% 17.2%
  • 29. Corn price 2006-2010 RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2010 1825 1824 1852 1919 1958 1971 1963 1976 1981 1982 2019 2036 1942 2009 1471 1485 1568 1599 1606 1618 1687 1733 1785 1744 1766 1805 1656 2008 1673 1671 1669 1655 1697 1708 1735 1732 1726 1676 1617 1501 1672 2007 1504 1496 1500 1492 1538 1580 1573 1565 1577 1576 1644 1704 1562 2006 1232 1247 1261 1253 1307 1346 1355 1357 1374 1343 1396 1493 1331
  • 30. Soybean supply in quantity (2002-2011) (K MT)   Domestic Production Import Export Total Supply Imp/Total supply Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compare to last yr Volume Compareto last yr Volume Compare to last yr 2002 16400   11310   259   25951   43.6% 2003 15390 -6.2% 20744 83.4% 267 3.0% 34367 32.4% 60.4% 2004 17400 13.1% 20230 -2.5% 334 25.2% 35796 4.2% 56.5% 2005 16350 -6.0% 26590 31.4% 397 18.6% 41044 14.7% 64.8% 2006 16200 -0.9% 28270 6.3% 379 -4.4% 42591 3.8% 66.4% 2007 14000 -13.6% 30820 9.0% 457 20.4% 42864 0.6% 71.9% 2008 16500 17.9% 37440 21.5% 468 2.6% 51972 21.2% 72.0% 2009 14500 -12.1% 42550 13.6% 346 -26.2% 55204 6.2% 77.1% 2010 15000 3.4% 54800 28.8% 350 1.2% 67950 23.1% 80.6% 2011 15000 0.0% 57500 4.9% 360 2.9% 70640 4.0% 81.4%
  • 31. Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 10Y 3351 3158 3066 3054 2944 2802 2981 3184 3215 3451 3410 3368 3165 09Y 3490 3254 2964 3267 3177 3439 3366 3454 3407 3490 3562 3546 3368 10/09 -4.0% -3.0% 3.4% -6.5% -7.3% -18.5% -11.4% -7.8% -5.6% -1.1% -4.3% -5.0% -6.0%
  • 32. Soymeal market price 2006-2010 RMB/MT Data Source: eFeedLink   Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 2010 3351 3158 3066 3054 2044 2802 2981 3184 3215 3451 3438 3277 3160 2009 3490 3254 2964 3267 3177 3439 3366 3454 3407 3490 3562 3546 3368 2008 3634 3791 3843 3669 3852 4381 4502 4011 3867 3304 3258 3041 3763 2007 2198 2369 2477 2322 2353 2315 2437 2736 3218 3367 3716 3720 2769 2006 2398 2381 2270 2121 2109 2063 2066 2056 2124 2162 2296 2193 2187
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