Experience The Future 28/11/2012

1. 26/11/2012
Co-creating the Future
Co-
Towards new leadership and coalitions in business
Leen Gorissen
Presentation for the Vlerick Alumni Event ‘Experience the Future’
28 november 2012

2. The future will not be without challenges…
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© 2012, VITO NV

3. The 4° scenarios are devastating:
C World Bank report 2012
-the inundation of coastal cities;
-increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates;
-many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;
-unprecedented heat waves in many regions;
-substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;
-increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;
-and irreversible loss of biodiversity,
And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes
with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan
for future adaptation needs. 26/11/2012 3
© 2012, VITO NV

4. The 4° scenarios are devastating:
C World Bank report 2012
-the inundation of coastal cities;
-increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates;
-many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;
-unprecedented heat waves in many regions;
CAN BUSINESSES SUCCEED IN
-substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;
-increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;
A FAILING WORLD?
-and irreversible loss of biodiversity,
And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes
with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan
for future adaptation needs. 26/11/2012 4
© 2012, VITO NV

5. A transition will happen no matter what.
The question is: will it be a positive or negative transition?
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6. Can we navigate towards a positive transition?
‘The world will not evolve past its current state of crisis by using the same
thinking that created the situation’
Albert Einstein
‘The future is not some place we are going to but one we are creating.
The paths are not to be found but made and the activity of making them changes both
the maker and the destination’
John Schaar - Futurist
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7. What is appropriate?
» Our structures, routines, rules… have been designed to work in times of
stability and abundance
» They are no longer appropriate for our new reality. A reality of turbulence,
chaos, complexity, uncertainty and depleting resources. A reality of failing
systems: economic crisis, climate crisis, failing ecosystems, inequality….
» When a sense of direction is lacking and new pathways are needed, a
new perspective and vision needs to be developed.
» New questions need to be asked and answered:
» What is needed to develop sustainably*?
» How to make the transition?
* Sustainable = volhoudbaar
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8. How to make the transition?
» Innovate INNOVATION
» Identify frontrunners, pioniers, visionary people brooding on deviating ideas
» Protect, support and guide new ideas. Connect frontrunners and build
innovation networks that will develop new pathways.
» Co-create an inspiring long term vision that gives a sense of direction for the
short and medium term.
» Transition Research: science-based & action oriented
» Understand system dynamics: hardware and software of society
» Empower pioneers through co-production and co-creation
» Experiment with new ideas and learn what works and what not
» Build reflective and pioneering capacity
» Evolve ‘From doing things better’ to ‘doing better things’
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9. Transition Research
» …aims to understand and (if possible) influence the drastic long-term changes in
culture, structure and practice that are required for genuine sustainable development
(Rotmans 2003, Loorbach 2007, Grin et al. 2010)
» …uses appropriate guiding frameworks to improve understanding of the ongoing
processes, barriers, success factors, key players ... of effective change processes
towards sustainable systems which can help to learn, recognise and use the
possibilities to interfere, guide and facilitate the processes.
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© 2012, VITO NV

10. Is transition research relevant for business?
Business As Usual is no longer an option
» Increasing uncertainty
» Failing business models
» Increasing environmental standards
» Volatility in energy prices
» Resource scarcity
» Ageing population
» Growing pressure from ‘connected’ society
» Changing attitudes of consumers
» …
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11. Transition Research in practice: KLC Limburg
» Transition approach to explore the KLC’s new role in a climate neutral Limburg:
» ARENA 1: Het systeem beter begrijpen
‘Over actoren, factoren en motieven’
» ARENA 2: Toekomstverkenning
‘Nadenken over het wensbeeld’
» ARENA 3: Transitiepaden
‘Van toekomstvisie naar toekomstgericht plannen’
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12. Transition Research in practice: Ghent
» Transition approach for a Carbon Neutral City of Ghent
» T arena’s with frontrunners
» Spin-off T arena’s, e.g. mobility
» T pathways & Long-term vision
» Icoonprojecten
» EUROCITIES AWARD 2012
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13. Transition Research in practice: Ghent
» Transition approach for a carbon Neutral City of Ghent
» Visionary scenario includes
» Make money work, but differently
E.g. towards new work regimes, new business models
» From globalisation to localisation
E.g. re-localisation, optimizing resilience and self-support
» Consumption & production 2.0: A circular economy
E.g. sustainable design and new forms of ownership, urban mining
» Economic development: measuring what matters
E.g. gross national hapiness
» Production and storage of energy, but different
E.g. towards an energy internet
» …
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© 2012, VITO NV

14. Transition success story: Interface’s Mission ZERO
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15. Interface: learning from forests to reduce waste
» Interface recycled 80 milion
kg of old carpet , reduced
emissions with 71%, water use
with 74% and energy use with
44%.
» By redesigning its business
model, interface saved 405
miljoen USD and created
significant added value in
brand and reputation
(Anderson et al., 2010).
»This biomimetic design
reduces installation waste to
less than 1% compared to
conventional tiles and it
reached the top of the best-
seller list faster than any other
product in the company’s
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© 2012, VITO NV
history (Lovins, 2008). 15

16. New business model inspired by biomimicry
» bios, meaning life, and mimesis, meaning to imitate
» emerging discipline in sustainability science
» studies nature’s models and then emulates these natural forms,
processes, systems, and strategies to solve human problems – sustainably
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17. What to do now to be successfull in 2022?
It is not the strongest of the species, nor the most intelligent that
survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.
Charles Darwin
Knowledge for transformation: e.g.
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18. What to do now to be successfull in 2022?
» Create a shift in business mindset
From competition to cooperation
From seperateness to interconnection
From ST benefit to LT value
From ‘control and command’ to ‘transition’ management
» Transform business mentality, business models and organisational culture
» Develop a strategy to guide the transition
– build reflective & pioneering capacity
– collaborate, experiment and build new coalitions
– develop a new role for business leadership 4SD, like interface
– create shared value for society and environment
» Learn, unlearn and relearn
In short,
Be the change you want to see in the world
Mahatma Ghandi
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19. Thank you for your interest. Questions?
More info
www.vito.be
Leen.gorissen@vito.be
Lets build the future we want
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© 2012, VITO NV A vision by Luc Schuiten

20. Chaos and dynamic: Transitions, the real thing
» In real life, transition processes are complex and cannot simply and
unambiguously be fitted into available theoretic moulds. In fact,
transitions are more about (creative) chaos than structure and order.
» This dynamic is also referred to as the Transition Management
Cycle. In other words, transition is about cyclic (and reflexive)
continuation of thinking - acting - assessing - (re) thinking- acting-
assessing ... Every end- or mid-point in the process can become a
new starting point of another transition process at any given time.
»This cyclic character of transition processes is an important reason
why 'managing' these processes is so complex.
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