http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Growth in the East Asia & the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012, which nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth. The slowdown was due to slower growth in China, which has started to shift away its economy from excessive reliance on investment and net exports.

1. 1
Ekaterine Vashakmadze
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
East Asia & Pacific
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed
to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global
growth.

3. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed
to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global
growth.

4. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed
to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global
growth.

5. Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar

6. Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar

7. Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar

8. Strong regional growth despite weak external
demand environment was achieved due to
• strong domestic demand boosting measures
including fiscal stimulus and,

9. Strong regional growth despite weak external
demand environment was achieved due to
• strong domestic demand boosting measures
including fiscal stimulus and,
• monetary easing with low interest rates contributing
to rapid credit expansion across the region.

10. Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3
China Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Thailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%

11. Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3
China Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Thailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%
15%

12. Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3
China Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Thailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%
15%
10%

13. Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
07M03 08M03 09M03 10M03 11M03 12M03 13M3
China Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Thailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%
15%
10%
10%

14. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.

15. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.

16. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors

17. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors
• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen
depreciation,

18. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors
• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen
depreciation,
• lower commodity prices and,

19. Growth in the region is projected to
slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors
• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen
depreciation,
• lower commodity prices and,
• capacity constraints.

20. Growth outlook in 2013
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China Philippines
GDP growth, q/q , saar

21. Growth outlook in 2013
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China Philippines
GDP growth, q/q , saar

22. • The regional growth is projected to pick up to 7.5
percent in 2014 and 2015 supported by gradual
strengthening of global demand.
• The regional outlook is subject to internal risks
associated with a sharp reduction in Chinese
investment and quantitative easing in Japan.

23. Loose policies contributed to rising
debt levels
Source: World Bank; IMF; BIS.
0 50 100 150 200
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Indonesia
General Government
Non-Financial corporations
HH
Share of GDP

24. Loose policies contributed to rising
debt levels
Price pressures in selected
countries of the region
Source: World Bank; IMF; BIS. Source: World Bank; DataStream.
0 50 100 150 200
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Indonesia
General Government
Non-Financial corporations
HH
Share of GDP
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
11M0511M0811M1112M0212M0512M0812M1113M0213M05
East Asia (excludes China)
China
Indonesia
CPI, % change, 3m/3m, saar

25. With increasing number of countries
facing capacity constraints, regional
policies could benefit from becoming
less accommodative.

26. Policy recommendations
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
12M06 12M08 12M10 12M12 13M02 2013M04
Japan China
East Asia excl. China Indonesia
Philippines
Percentage change, 3m/3m, saar

27. 27
Ekaterine Vashakmadze
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
East Asia & Pacific
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook