Housing Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
Strategic Resources May 2024 Corporate Presentation
Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
1. Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings Washington, D.C. May 12, 2011
18. Qualified Renters who can buy a Median Priced Home 2005 2010 Median Price $219,000 Median Price $173,100 Mortgage Rate 6% Mortgage Rate 5% Down payment 10% Down payment 10% Monthly Payment $1,180 Monthly Payment $840 Qualifying Income $56,600 Qualifying Income $40,300 How many renters have at least this income? 7,700,000 (21% of renters) How many renters have at least this income? 15,000,000 (39% of renters)
20. Distress Sales: 30% to 40% of Transactions Will Remain Significant for Next 2 years
21. # of Serious Delinquent Mortgages… Mostly Borrowers prior to 2009 (90+ days late or in foreclosure process) In 2010, there were 1.5 million distressed sales… need to wait 2.7 years
33. Current Savings Rate = 6% Takes 9 years to save $20,000 based on average $2,200 per year
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35. CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation (% change from one year ago) Prices falling on consumer electronic products : Smartphone1 = $200 to Smartphone2 = $200 is computed as falling prices; even though your wallet did not get any relief