Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins

J.B. Collier Operations Officer Africa Natural Resources and Water Management GroupAnnual International UN Water Conference Zaragoza, Spain January 8-10, 2013 1

 Ambitious goals to  “Laos wants to pull achieve itself out of least- growth, poverty developed country status by 2020” alleviation, sustain able development.  “By maintaining at Food, energy, least an 11 percent annual average water, security and economic growth climate resilience and by addressing plans. emerging development bottlenecks, meet the MDG target.” (Ethiopia) 2

 Optimize regionally rather than nationally Economies of scale  Balance Access to each markets other’s Postpone needs investments Jointly face a common threat 3

276 River Basins in Few Riverthe world. basin agreements.> 60% of have notreaty provisions Mostlycovering them. bilateral. 4

What’s holding the countries back? Perceived Risks INTERNAL EXTERNAL DRIVERS COUNTRY DRIVERS CONSIDERATIONS Security Benefits and Costs (Economic) Global Dialogue EconomicDevelopment Regional Perceived Risks Geopolitics Needs (Political) Rights Climate Risks (and few Opportunities) (Political) 5

There is a need to catch up quicklyin a global context … 90 80 2009 Data from The World BankLife Expectancy (years) 70 60 50 40 30 100 1000 10000 100000 6 GNI per capita (US$/yr)

Growing Population Growing Cities Urban Areas: Cities with Population greater than 1 million Areas that contributeEconomies Growing to Africa’s GDP Cairo 15 Gross Cell Product million in 2005 Lagos (1995 US$, billions) Dakar 8.7 million Khartoum Growing Cities 5.6 million Kinshasa Dar- es- Salaam 2025 2010 Population in 2000 on UN Sources: FAO based Cape Town Source: The World Bank AFR Water Resources in a Changing Climate, 2010 7Data Source: UN Agglomerations Population Data Statistics Division, 2008 based on data from GECON GDP Dataset, Yale University 2010

New Visualizations building on better Global Datasets Interactive DocumentsInnovative Hardware(e.g. Tablets) Online Portals 8

Shared Regional “Top-down” Systems Real-time Hydromet Systems Precipitation (rain & snow) Data Transmission (e.g. Satellite, Fixed- line/ Cellphone, Radio Reservoir Levels Telemetry) Internet/ IntranetFlow, ET, SoilSediment, Moisture, BiomFloods, GW, … ass… “Bottom-up” Systems Data Management (Visualization, Forecasts, Storage, Archival, 9

Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment Complex System Scenario Analysis Pancheshwar Dam Chisapani (Karnali) Dam Implications: Floodin (proposed) (proposed) UTTARKHAND Implications: Hydropower INF1 0 0 _ 3 INF205_3 INF2 0 7 _ 5 INF209_3 DAM209_4 DAM209 _3 Upper Arun INF209_4 INF100_4 INF207_1 INF209_2 INF1 0 0 _ 1 INF205_2 INF2 0 5 _ 4 INF207_4 INF205_1 Kosi High Dam Kaliganghaki I DAM209_6 Saptakosi River DAM207 _1 INF207_3 Tamur Trisuli Reservoir Yamuna River INF205_5 NEPAL Arun III DAM207_7 Pancheswar dam Burhi Gangaki DAM207_5 DAM207_4 DAM207_6 (proposed) Marsyandi INF101_1 DAM205_1 DAM209_ 2 DAM209_5 Lower Arun Sunkosi II HIMACHAL Seti Purnagiri dam PRADESH Lakhwar Dam DAM2 0 5 _ 2 INF207_2 Kaligandhaki ii DAM101_1 DAM207_2 Ban b h asa Head wo rk s INF1 0 0 _ 2 DAM2 0 5 _ 3 Vyasi Dam Chisapani (kamali) Dam Mah ak ali (Sarad a) IT05_1 Andhi Khola Dam INF2 0 9 _ 1 Kotti Behl Reservoir DAM205_8 INF2 0 9 _ 5 DAM1 0 1_ 2 DAM207_3 Sapta Ganghaki Dam Upper Ganga Canal DAM100_6 IRR205_1 INF205_6 Kosi Hhogh Dam Riv er East Ganga Canal INF2 0 5 _ 8 DAM207_8 INF210_1 IRR100_1 IT00_1 IRR205_3 DAM209_7 INF1 0 1 _ 2 IRR100_2 INF208_1 INF2 0 9 _ 6 INF207_6 IT07_1 INF100_5 Kamala Dam Gomti river Rapti Dam BANGLADESH IT05_3 INF205_7 DAM209_1 IT09_2 IT03_1 DAM205_ 9 IT05_6 Kulekhani Karnali (Ghagra) INF1 0 3 _ 1 Mech i Riv er IRR2 0 7 _ 1 IT0 9 _ 1 Babai (Surya) DAM208_1 Yamuna West Canal Yamuna East Canal river river IRR101_1 IRR101_2 Lucknow City Supply Rapti Nepal IRR209_2 Madhya West Ganga Madhya East Ganga INF100_6 INF208_2 IRR2 0 9 _ 1 WS103_1 IRR205_5 IRR100 _3 FL5 IRR100 _4 IT05_2 IT01_1 IT0 7 _ 2 IT05_7 IT00_2 IT05_4 IT0 5 _ 5 IT08_1 INF1 0 0 _ 7 FL1 Sarda Sahayak Western Gandhak IT09_3 INF1 0 1 _ 3 Kosi western canal INF314_1 IRR105_2 IRR107_2 Kosi Eastern canal IRR109_3 Hinden R. Girija B IT0 5 _ 9 IRR1 0 9 _ 4 IT1 0 _ 1 Agra Canal IT00_3 Banganga River IRR101_3 Rapti B Eastern Gandhak INF1 1 0 _ 2 Kamala River IRR1 0 7 _ 3 FL7 INF313_1 INF101_4 FL2 IRR105_6 Surya B IT01_2 Lower Ganga Canal FL4 IRR1 0 5 _ 4 FL6 Mohananda River IRR100_5 FL3 IT00_4 UTTAR PRADESH (Bangladesh) INF105_10 INF100_8 Upper Meghna River INF105_9 Mohananda River IT05_8 Gandhak River Jamuna River Kanpur city Supply (India) Ghagara River Bagmati River IT0 1 _ 3 INF1 0 1 _ 5 WS100_1 Rapti River Delhi Water Supply IT0 0 _ 5 INF1 0 0 _ 9 INF105_11 INF312_1 WS1 0 1 _ 1 Kosi River Development Scenarios Agra City Supply INF1 0 0 _ 1 7 WS101_2 INF100_10 INF100_11 INF101_12 INF1 0 1 _ 1 8 INF100_14 BIHAR Ganges Barrage IT01_4 INF101_9 INF100_12 INF1 0 0 _ 1 3 (planned) IT00_8 IT00_19 IT00_16 Padma River IT00_6 IT00_18 INF101_16 IT00_10 IT00_11 IT00_12 IT00_14 IT0 0_1 5 FL8 IT00_7 IT00_9 Ganges River IT0 0_1 3 Ganges River IT00_17 IT0 1 _ 9 Lower Meghna River IT01_12 Parwan Irrigation Farakka IRR101_4 IT01_5 IT0 1 _ 1 1 INF100_15 INF100_16 IT01_14 Musakhand Dam IRR101_12 IT0 1 _ 1 6 DAM104_2 IT1 1 _ 4 IRR101_10 IT01_15 IRR101_11 Rangwan Dam INF111_1 IRR102_2 Adhuara Municipal area DAM101_11 RAJASTHAN IT0 4 _ 1 WS104_1 Mayurakshi River IT01_6 INF101_11 Massanjore Dam IRR3 0 0 _ 6 IT02_2 Banghirathi / Hoogly Daudhan Dam Maithan DAM111_1 INF101_8 Dhaolpur municipal area DAM1 0 1 _ 1 0 DAM1 1 1 _ 2 WS101_3 INF102_2 Naugarh Dam INF111_2 DAM104_1 INF1 0 1_ 1 0 INF101_17 IT11_2 IT11_3 END2 Keolari Ken River INF111_3Climate Scenarios INF104_1 IT0 1 _ 7 IRR101_7 END3 IT01_10 Damodar River IT0 2 _ 1 Panchet Resevoir Chambal left bank Chambal right bank Son left Son Right Bank DAM111_3 Kangshabati IRR101_5 INF101_15 Karman asa Riv er IRR1 0 1 _ 6 IRR106_1 IRR106_2 DAM111_4 IT06_1 IT11_ 1 Kota Dam IT0 1 _ 1 3 INF106_3 INF111_4 IT06_3 DAM1 0 1 _ 5 Haldia River IT06_2 INF101_7 INF1 0 2 _ 1 Ranapratapsagar IRR1 0 6 _ 3 JHARKHAND North Kael River DAM101_4 IT01_8 Tons River WEST BENGAL INF1 0 1 _ 1 4 END1 INF1 0 6 _ 4 Gandhisagar Dam INF101_13 MADHYA PRADESH DAM1 0 1 _ 3 INF1 0 6 _ 2 IRR101_8 INF1 0 6 _ 1 INF101_6 CHHATTISGARH Pardkh Chambal River IRR101_9 River Dam (Existing) Irrigation Diversion International Boundary Dam (Planned) State Boundary 11 Implications: Irrigatio

International Basins in National ContextAfghanistan - Strategic Options Scoping in the Kabul River Basin Kabul River Basin System Schematic 13 Storage & Hydro Projects 6 Conveyance Projects R9: Barak S10 R10: Panjshir I (Gulbahar) S9 Salang R. S10A Panjshir R. 5 Groundwater Projects C16 C19 D23 C20 14 Irrigation Projects C21 R8: Totumdara S1 U. Kabul/ D3 C22 Panjshir R. S3 D20 Maidan R. A3 C24 R12: Haijan R1 Paghman R. Barikow R. S3a D7 A4 D3a C23 R11: Bagdara Garband R. C12 R1a Qargha R. D30 A2 A4a S11 C7 C12a S8 D14 C10 C8 Kabul City D11 C9 R14: Maripur Kabul R. A1 C6 D4 D2 R15: Naghlu C5 R13: Amir Ghazi C4a C4 C3 R7: Gat Logar R. D5 Butkhak R. R16A: Sarubi 1 C2 R4: Tangi C1 S5 Wardak C30 R3: Chak-e- S12 R2: Kajab Wardak D4a S13A R5: Karwan R6: Surkhab (Einak Mine) R16B: Sarubi 2 R17: Laghman A Surkhab R. C32 C31 S13 Charkh R. Pul-i-Qarghai Hyd. Unit S6 S7 D37 Khas Konar on Konar R. No Data for Gauge at S14 Saltanpur R18: Darunta Existing Water Supply (dom, comm, ind) demand D42 D42 is about 22000ha D41 D40 D38 Proposed DWS Surkhrud River R19: Konar A Existing Irrigation scheme S16 C35 C34 C33 S15 Pul-i-Gawerdesh (Lanay River) 2 D43 R21: Kama R20: Konar B Proposed new or expansion of existing irrigation scheme "Site 4" Environmental flow requirement (EFR) S17 C37 C36 D39 Existing Reservoir Kabul River tributaries south of the Surkhand Proposed new reservoir No Data on Flow D43 is about 36000ha E1 Kabul River at Dakah Existing Reservoir to be rehabilitated Aquifer Node Connection Node Start Node Figure 6-6 Base Case Storage Options under Different Hydrologic Risk Options 700 600 Live Storage (MCM) 500 Mean Annual Flow 400 Moderate Drought (1 in 5 yrs) More Serious Drought (1 in 10 yrs) 300 Severe Drought Year 200 100 0 Barak Totumdara Langhman Wardag Developed Panjshir Gat Konar A Kajab Haijan Baghdara Tangi Storage Total Prioritizing Investments in Kabul River 12

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Strengthening regional institutions, analysis, Egypt and investments Sudan Eastern Nile Basin System Schematic Mediterranean Sea Return to Interface E1 Eritrea D22Nile Basin D23 C16 D21: New Valley D20 R15 Aswan Eastern Nile D19 River Nile R14 Dal D18 R13 Merowe D17 C15 Ethiopia C14 El Hawad S16 D14: Om Hagar R12 Khashm- Setit el-Girba Atbara C11 S15 C13 C12 D13: Humera Upper Atbara D16: New Haifa D15: U. Atbara C10 R11 Rumela D12 D11: Gezira South R10 Jabel Auliya R9 Sennar Rahad S13 S14 S10 Sudan R8 D10: Dinder Dinder S12 220 /460MW Beles S11 R3 Roseires Lake Tana C9 D5 D4 R7 Border R6 Mendaia R5 Mabil R4 Karadobi D9 D8 D7 C2 D6 Doleib/Adar Blue Nile (Abbay) C3 C8 S9 C1 1780 MW R4 White Nile R7 R5 C7 1700 ME 1600 MW R6 DR Congo Uganda R7 Sobat Baro R8 Baro Birbir C2 S6 R9 R2 E2 C6 C3 C1 C10 Alwero D2 C10 Baro D3 D1 C12 C18 S7 C12 Gilo R1 C12 C5 S4 Baro C13 S8 R13 R14 Akobo R15 Kenya C4 S3 Pibor S17 S2 S5 C17 D27 D26 Rwanda R18 L. Albert D25 R17 Burundi L. Kayoga Tanzania D24 Baro R16 13 L. Victoria S1

• • •Demonstration of Value of Regional Cooperation for flood Riversforecasting and warning improvement in Sudan, Ethiopia, andEgypt. Canals Soils Wetlands • • • 14

Facilitating ripariancooperation dialogue andinvestments in the Aral SeaBasin. Uzbekistan Irrigated Areas Upper Amu Darya Basin Amu Darya Basin 15

By:Ashok SubramanianBridget BrownAaron Wolf 16

Introduction: Reaching Across What, How the Waters: Outline ReflectionsFramework forAnalysisCase Studies Pointers for PartnersUnderstandingRisks Understanding Risk Reduction 17

 Cooperation – Dialogue or action re: shared waters between countries. International Waters – River shared by countries (may be border; may cross borders. Benefits – Economic benefits. Risks – Perceived, may not be real. Risk Reduction – Actionable measures to reduce perceived risks. Opportunity – Political; usually unpredictable. 18

Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities Political Opportunity Countries likely to consider Countries most likely a deal; benefit expansion to make a deal would improve likelihood Economic Economic Cost Benefit Countries may pursue Countries likely to consider a Unilateral development given deal; risk reduction and high risks and high costs opportunity enhancement would improve likelihood Political Risk 19

 E. Nile Basin, 1998-2004: Working together on the E. Nile Program, after historic conflicts Ganges Basin, 1996-2000: Bilateral treaty between India-Bangladesh, after long negotiations Niger Basin, 2000-2006: Revitalization of the Niger Basin Authority, after 4 decades of fragile existence Syr Darya Basin, 1996-2000: F’wk agreement between 3 countries on energy, but did not sustain Zambezi Basin, 2000-04: ZAMCOM is not signed by all, despite enormous efforts 20

Ganges River Basin, 1996-2000 21

Eastern Nile Basin, 1998-2004 22

Niger River Basin, 2000-2006 23

Syr Darya, 1996-2002 24

Zambezi River Basin, 2000-2004 25

UNDERSTANDING RISKS Political Opportunity O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T EconomicEconomic R I S K R E D U C T I O N Benefit Cost Risks: See next slide Political Risk 26

 Capacity and Knowledge - country’s confidence in itself to negotiate an agreement, and also having enough knowledge (for example, of the basin) to do so. Accountability and Voice - country’s distrust in co-riparians, agencies or third parties as well as its desire to be heard and included in the cooperation process. Sovereignty and Autonomy - country’s desire to have control over resources and infrastructure, and also to make decisions independently. Equity and Access - country’s concern for fairness in the agreement, whether it is in specified flows or project costs, as well as its sense of entitlement to develop/use its fair share of the river. Stability and Support - country’s concern that an agreement will not be honored by its own citizens or be widely supported politically. 27

CAPACITY SOVEREIGNTY KNOWLEDGE AUTONOMY ACCOUNTABIL ITY & VOICE EQUITY STABILITY & ACCESS SUPPORT CORE RISKS ◦ Deep. Recur. Need Periodic Attention. OPERATIONAL RISKS ◦ Many interventions may be needed. 28

UNDERSTANDING RISK REDUCTION Political Opportunity O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T EconomicEconomic R I S K R E D U C T I O N Benefit Cost Risk Reduction – See next Slide Political Risk 29

SEVEN RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES Knowledge & Skills Program Institutions Legitimacy Agreement Facilitation Financing 30

Knowledge & Skills CAPACITYLINKING KNOWLEDGERISKS Institutions& ACCOUNTABILITYRISK VOICEREDUCTION AgreementSTRATEGIES SOVEREIGNTYNo One AUTONOMY FinancingSize Fits AllSolutions EQUITY Program ACCESS Legitimacy STABILITY SUPPORT Facilitation or Guarantee 31

Risk Identification and Action Select Scale Select Risk Coordinate Conduct of Reduction Support Reassessment Engagement Measures Conduct Conduct Expert Engage in Risk Further Risk Quick Detailed Validation Reduction Reduction Assessment AssessmentDevelopment Goals& Consideration of Ongoing – Consideration Agreement No Agreement Cooperation of (Risks &  (Risks & Benefits, Opportunities, Ris Opportunities) Opportunities) ks and Internal Dialogue 32

 Many Risk Reduction Strategies needed - Pooled approach ◦ Harmonization and Alignment. ◦ Comparative strengths (GEF, UN, IFI, Bilaterals) ◦ Financing and TA Monitoring progress/outputs critical Communication about intermediate steps Incentives for Teams 33

In it for the long haul…A long distance run..not a sprint 34

 Core & Operational Risks Mix of risk reduction strategies needed. Appropriate rather than ideal solutions. Different paths to cooperation, so different strokes for different risks/contexts. Political Opportunity may override some risks. Political Opportunity is unpredictable, depends on “beyond the water” issues (e.g., change of regime). Political Opportunity opens doors – but Risk Reduction still important. 35

Different Paths to Cooperation “Solutions for Situations” Political OpportunityEconomic Economic Cost Benefit Political Risk 36

 Deal reached – but often fragile? ◦ Short term equilibrium, 2-3 years. But could move back. No once-for- all magic bullet. ◦ Deal may be in form, but substance needs work. ◦ Chance to initiate and institutionalize long term cooperative mechanisms? ◦ Big uncertainties in geopolitics, hydrology => Need for flexibility in deal. Implications for water (quantity) sharing? 37

Reflections/Lessons The Last word Political OpportunityDeals are Seize momentstemporary. of politicalPeriodic opportunity.assessment and Doable ratheraction needed. than desirable solutions.Economic Economic Cost Benefit Solutions forSystematic analysis situations.and application Train for thehelps. long haul Political Risk 38

Information  Need to capitalize on new information products (incl. earth observation)  Move from limited data sharing to improving access to data, tools, and knowledge products in the public domain (e.g. for disaster management, basin planning)Institutions  Strengthen regional institutions with strong links to national-level activities  Strengthen links with academia and other knowledge institutions (e.g. through internships)  Improve shared vision planning and financing (riparian governments, development partners)Investments  Improve frameworks to identify investments with development impacts at regional scale  Facilitate quality preparation, appraisal, and implementation of these investments+ Need to remain engaged in the long-term and look for emerging opportunities evenin difficult situations of regional cooperation… 39

Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins

by United Nations Office to Support the International Decade for Action 'Water for Life' 2005-2015 on Jan 25, 2013

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Overview presentation on transboundary cooperation. Lessons learned from water cooperation in transboundary basins Presentation Transcript