Welcome Address to inaugural conference of World Future Society of South Africa, 6-7 May 2010

1. energy, environment, education and economics:
Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030
Welcome Message
By Michael Lee
Founder & Chairman
Towards a 2030 vision for South Africa

2. Futures Thinking…by Joe Public
Tomorrow never comes…wishful thinking…rumours…myths

3. Futures Thinking…by Woody Allen
“I am interested in the
future. It’s where I plan to
spend the rest of my life.”

4. Futures Thinking…by the Military
“The military are always planning
to fight the last war over again with
better weapons.”
Harold A Linstone, US Futurist

5. Futures Thinking…by Eskom
“Eishkom” status
LOAD SHEDDING STATUS
The Price of Future Denial = R50 Bn*
*NERSA’s estimation of power crisis of 2007-2008
BUT…Change is in the air…..

6. Futures Thinking…by Mel Gibson
“Passive adaptation to a deteriorating environment is a
road to disaster.”
Jamshid Gharajedaghi, Systems Thinker and Futurist

7. Futures Thinking…by Business
Only one of the original companies
in the Dow Jones index participated
in its centenary celebration in 1996
– death is common in business!
During the 2008 credit crisis, the five largest U.S. investment banks, with
combined liabilities or debts of $4 trillion, either went bankrupt (Lehman
Bros), were taken over by other companies (Bear Stearns & Merrill
Lynch), or were bailed-out by the U.S. government (Goldman Sachs &
Morgan Stanley). In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with nearly
$5 trillion in mortgage obligations, were placed into receivership.

8. Futures Thinking…by our Government
“Lack of a coherent long-term plan has weakened our ability to
provide clear and consistent policies. It has limited our capacity to
mobilise all of society in pursuit of our developmental objectives. It
has hampered our efforts to prioritise resource allocations... In
addition, weaknesses in coordination of government have led to
policy inconsistencies and, in several cases, poor service delivery
outcomes. This Government is determined to fix these weaknesses.”
Green Paper “National Strategic Planning”, August 2009

9. Futures Thinking…by Futurists
“The future can be explored, colonized, imagined
and created.”
Richard Slaughter, Australian Futurist and complier of the
Knowledge Base for Futures Studies

10. Futures Thinking…by Futurists
Future time is a conceptual space for design, for
for plans, for strategy, for dreams…it may be the
most under-utilised resource on the planet. it
contains multiple possibilities which can be
expressed as scenarios.

11. Futures Thinking…the Paradox of Time
The PAST can be known but we are powerless to
change it, whereas ..
the FUTURE cannot be known yet it can be
changed… SO….

12. ….Become a Future Activist!
“Those who act with sustained and strong
intention are the creators of the future.”
Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture

13. Activism, South African Style!

14. Future Activism in Alignment
 Fly at equal following distances
 Fly at same speed
 Fly inwards towards centre

15. Future Activism in Focus
“Let’s not solve the wrong problems.”
Gibbons and Voyer, Science Council of Canada, 1974

16. Five Future Activism Focus Points =
The Castle of Good Hope
ETHOS
ENVIRONMENT ENERGY
EDUCATION
ECONOMICS

17. Path-finding for South Africa to 2030
ETHOS
ENVIRONMENT ENERGY
ECONOMICS EDUCATION

18. Foresight–Based Decision-Making
Emergent
Context
Resources
Objectives
Good Future-Directed
Decision-Making

19. Foresight–Based Decision-Making
Cold War
New rocket &
Win space computer
race, win cold technologies
war
President Kennedy’s Moon
Vision

20. Foresight–Based Decision-Making
New prosperity
based on oil
economy
Create new new petrol-
mass market for driven
cars; 15 million vehicles
Model Ts by
1928
Henry Ford’s Vision of a People’s
Car – The Model T (1908-1909)

21. Foresight–Based Decision-Making
Fossil fuel
depletion – new
energy order
Create new Renewable &
localised, Nuclear power
sustainable
wealth sources
President Zuma’s Vision of a
Renewed South Africa

22. Final thought ….
A key principle of systems thinking is that the
logic which led to a problem cannot solve that
problem – a higher order of logic, a different
kind of thinking, is required to move forward.
Become a future activist by being an agent of
positive, foresight-based change. But what is
your road map for the future?