World Gold Council: Q3 2013 Gold Demand Trends
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World Gold Council: Q3 2013 Gold Demand Trends
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World Gold Council: Q3 2013 Gold Demand Trends
- 1. Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 14th November 2013
- 2. Disclaimer This presentation is provided solely for general information and educational purposes. It is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments. It does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments. This presentation does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments, including without limitation, any advice to the effect that any gold related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in gold, any gold related products or any other products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision. While the accuracy of any information communicated herewith has been checked, neither the World Gold Council nor any of its affiliates can guarantee such accuracy. In no event will the World Gold Council or any of its affiliates be liable for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this presentation or for any consequential, special, punitive, incidental, indirect or similar damages arising from, related to or connected with this presentation even if notified of the possibility of such damages. Expressions of opinion are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 2
- 3. Summary • Q3 demand of 868.5 tonnes was valued at US$37billion. • Consumer demand continued to grow, primarily in Asian markets, in response to lower average prices • Jewellery demand was partly driven by investment motives • Demand for bars and coins reached a year-to-date record of 1,252 tonnes • ETF outflows slowed to 119 tonnes • Central banks added 93.4 tonnes to gold reserves, taking year-to-date purchases to 297 tonnes • Total supply was down 3% primarily due to lower levels of recycling World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 3
- 4. Total gold demand Demand (tonnes) Q3'12 Q3'13* YoY% YTD 2012 YTD 2013* YoY% Jewellery 461.7 486.7 5% 1,372.8 1,644.5 20% Technology 102.1 102.8 1% 311.3 309.2 -1% Investment 425.3 185.5 -56% 1,110.1 554.6 -50% Official sector purchases 112.3 93.4 -17% 393.7 296.9 -25% Gold demand 1,101.4 868.5 -21% 3,187.8 2,805.1 -12% Gold demand (value, US$mn) 58,499 37,035 -37% 169,363.4 132,249.2 -22% Note: * Provisional. Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 4
- 5. Q3 gold demand of 869 tonnes, worth US$37bn World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 5
- 6. YTD consumer demand rises 26%, 2013 to challenge record high World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 6
- 7. Total gold supply Supply (tonnes) Mine production Q3'12 Q3'13* YTD 2012 YoY% YTD 2013* YoY% 744.6 772.3 4% 2,119.1 2,188.2 3% 1.3 -12.0 - -8.0 -39.0 - Total mine supply 745.9 760.3 2% 2,111.1 2,149.2 2% Recycled gold 433.3 385.2 -11% 1,205.1 1,046.8 -13% Total supply 1,179.2 1,145.5 -3% 3,316.2 3,196.0 -4% Gold price (London PM fix, US$/oz) 1,652.0 1,326.3 -20% 1,650.3 1,457.4 -12% Net producer hedging Note: * Provisional. Gold prices are averaged over the period they refer to. Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2013 | November 2013 7
- 8. Thank you World Gold Council 10 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG United Kingdom T +44 20 7826 4700 F +44 20 7826 4799 W www.gold.org
- 9. World Gold Council research – simple to access To download or subscribe to our gold investment research studies: www.gold.org/investment/research Or click on the link below: Research app for investors – available on iPad / iPhone Or scan: Ease of navigation, several views available 9
Notas del editor
- Slide 7 – Total gold demand tableThe demand table shown here gives a more detailed breakdown of demand into its key sectors.Jewellery: Grew 11% in Q4 largely due to to a revival in Indian demand in the second half of the year. Annual demand was 3% lower. India again the driver - a very weak first half weighed on the annual total. India's year of two halves is discussed in detail in the report. Investment: Saw declines of a similar magnitude in the Q4 and full year numbers. Bar and coin demand softened from exceptional demand seen in 2011, but still holds well above the 5-year average. Technology: A combination of high average prices, relatively weak demand from key consumer markets and de-stocking towards the end of the year contributed to a 3% decline in Technology demand.Official sector: Gold's diversification benefits drove net central bank purchases to a 48-year high of 534.6 tonnes.Gold buying is still most prevalent among the central banks of emerging markets.
- Slide 10 – Jewellery attracts greater values Jewellery demand echoed developments in India, the largest market accounting for 29% of total demand. Price-related declines in demand volumes were seen across most markets with a handful (including Russia, Turkey and Japan) generating counter-trend growth.Demand in US dollars reached a new annual record of US$102.4bn as consumers continued to allocate ever greater sums to gold jewellery.The inference that gold jewellery is as desirable as ever is confirmed by data from some Western markets, where growth in silver consumption is being fuelled by demand for gold-plated silver pieces.
- Slide 17 – Total gold supply tableFourth quarter supply was unchanged year-on-year as a drop in recycling (predominantly in India) counterbalanced a 2% increase in mine productionAnnual supply contracted by 1%. Recycling was again the primary reason for the decline as mine output was unchangedProducer de-hedging of 20 tonnes more than reversed the 11.3 tonnes of net hedging from 2011 but absolute volumes remain negligible