Presentation discusses these Internet future developments:
1. Social computing will expand to business
2. Internet access will be ubiquitous
3. The Web will become faster
4. The Web will become smarter
5. Security will improve
6. IT products will morph into services
3. Yogi SchulzBiography Partner in Corvelle Consulting Information technology related management consulting Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host PPDM Association board member Industry presenter: Project World - 5 years CIPS Informatics - 7 years PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years Convergence - 4 years PPDM Association - several years 3
4. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war System to conduct business Cheap, fast, shared communication systemfor everyone A whole new media channel System to improve social life Basis for warfare Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week. 19 May 2007 4
5. Cyber War:Sabotaging the System Brazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackers China Expands Cyberspying in U.S. The New E-spionage Threat 5
6. Close toHome “Great news, Mrs. Janoski! We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgeryon YouTube, And it’s currently ranked second!” 6
7. Evolution from Web 1.0to Web 2.0 End-user input Web 1.0 Mostly text content Internet Web 2.0 End-user generated content Multi-media content 7
9. Over 72 million active sites 9 World Wide Web map Number of Web Siteson the Web
10. The Future of the Internet Outline Social computing will expand to business Internet access will be ubiquitous The Web will become faster The Web will become smarter Security will improve IT products will morph into services Recommendations Questions & Answers 10
11. Social ComputingSurvey created a personal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life? played FarmVille? written personal blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at YouTube? produced content for the Web? Who has . . 11
13. New Hobbieson the Internet How did anyone survive before the Internet? Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthewtakes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it? 13
14. The future of Social Networks Companies: operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channels offer chat to customers host discussion forums Individuals: stay in touch with family & friends promote causes participate in political action 14
15. Internet AccessSurvey Who has . . abandoned phones for VOIP? used wireless access at Starbucks? found Internet access in remote corners of the world? mooched Internet access froman open WiFi access point? surfed the Web using a phone? 15
17. T-Mobile HotSpot @Home + $ 20.00 per month In a Wi-Fi wirelessInternet hot spot,all your calls are free Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automatically Includes a wireless router for your home 17 NovatelMiFi
18. PCs vs. Cell PhonesProjected Shipments Over 700 million phones 18
22. The Future of Internet Access Internet 2 Cable/ADSL Rural Internet Satellite services Municipal WiFi Device convergence 22
23. Faster Web Survey waited and waited for web pages to load? noticed significant variability when loading the same web page? rented movies because the download time takes hours? abandoned an online purchase because the hour glass stayed on forever? 23 Who has . .
25. The Future of Internet Speed Internet 2 Faster web browsers Higher speed Cable/ADSL Higher speed cell phone network Higher speed in-home network 25
26. Smarter Web Survey not found what you were searching for? failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? become tired of typing the same personal information over and over and over? received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set? found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago? 26 Who has . .
27. Mobile agents RosettaNet ebXML UDDI WS-<alphabet soup> Web Services willconnect organizations } WS-Trust WS-Security Web Services Interoperability WS-MetadataExchange WS-Addressing WS-Eventing WS-ServiceGroup WS-BaseFaults 27
29. SecuritySurvey actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years? been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home? Who has . . 29
30. The Future of Security Biometric identification: Technical identification: Less total freedom to be irresponsible: 30
31. Software &Hardware Survey implemented virtualization technology contracted for on-demandserver computing? used open source software? installed OpenOffice? developed softwarethrough crowdsourcing? 31 Who has . .
32. IT products will morph into servicesSoftware as a Service Open source software Pay for software usage by the month Web-accessible office software IT infrastructure management 32 Qbyte online Java Enterprise System
33. IT products will morph into servicesHardware as a Service Commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid 33
34. What will the future of the Internetmean to business? Enhance distributed collaboration Enhance supply chain performance Improve work/life balance Improve integration of field andhead office business processes Address the potential ofknowledge management 34
35. Conclusions The future of the Internet will surprise us We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology 35
37. Recommendations Monitor Internet technology developments Experiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and opportunities Pilot Web services in modest ways Don’t over-commit 37
39. Future of the Internet Corvelle Consulting 700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W. Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7 Phone: (403) 249-5255 E-mail: YogiSchulz@corvelle.com Web: www.corvelle.com Yogi Schulz Partner of Corvelle Consulting Information technology related management consulting Microsoft Canada columnist& CBC Radio host Industry presenter PPDM Association board member 39
41. searched for Open Source software components? contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application? read about the Open Source Website Content Management System? participated in an Open Source community? considered an open source application? SoftwareDevelopmentSurvey Who has . . 41
42. Software development will rely heavily on module re-use Microsoft modules Java modules Applications built on tools Reducing what developers have to code 42
57. Bibliography - 1 A Brief History of the World Wide Web www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html A Little History of the World Wide Web www.w3.org/History.html Biometric Identification et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html Classmate PC by Intel www.classmatepc.com/index.html Creative Licensing Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14 Digital dilemmas The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003 www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303 Eight business technology trends to watch http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_watch_2080?gp=1 Electrolux Screenfridge www.electrolux.com/screenfridge 57
58. Bibliography - 2 Future of the Internet and Web www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.html Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631 Histories of the Internet www.isoc.org/internet/history en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_history www.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.html Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0 www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline How the internet has woven itself into American life www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.asp How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003 www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur 58
59. Bibliography - 3 IBM - Capacity on demand www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business Internet News, January 23, 2007 www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391 www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connections Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making www.slb.com/content/services/software/virtual Internet histories www.isoc.org/internet/history Internet Society www.isoc.org Internet2 www.internet2.edu IPhone-Free Cellphone News By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007 www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?ex=1186459200&en=45706190e9cee2fb&ei=5070 59
60. Bibliography - 4 Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/ NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html On-Demand Computing www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.html One Laptop per Child (OLPC) laptop.org Pattie Maes and PranavMistry demo SixthSense http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html Rich Internet application en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application www.adobe.com/devnet/ria/ theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htm Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/ 60
61. Bibliography - 5 Taming the World Wide Web A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data by Rachael King www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search 61
62. Bibliography - 6 Utility Computing www.utilitycomputing.com Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design Jeff Han www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65 Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2e W3C - One Web: Going Mobile Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile www.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1) Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant World Wide Web Consortium 62
63. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1 Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers Fast, shared communication system for large corporations A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft 63
64. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 2 Replacement for Fedexing documents A whole new media channel for: Distributing information Delivering entertainment & education Collaborating for business or pleasure System to: Perform rapid research (with limitations) Conduct business with consumers – B2C Improve social life Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services 64
65. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 3 A software distribution/update mechanism Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone System to conduct business: Among businesses – B2B With government A turbo-charged way to: Defraud the innocent & the naive Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many Operate a global casino without spending billions 65
66. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 4 Basis for warfare: Disrupt enemy communication Disable enemy weapons Freeze enemy financial assets Avoid casualties on the evening news Replacement for: The telephone system Video conferencing A shared infrastructure to enable: Media convergence Wireless communication system On-demand television 66
68. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 1 1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative 1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors 1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP 1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail 1973 The term Internet is first used 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts 1982 first Newsgroups established 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson 1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts 68
69. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 2 1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet 1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com 1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server 1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet 1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP 1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions 1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant 69
70. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 3 1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts 1993 Netscape Communications is founded 1994 The first bank opens online 1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery 1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software 1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched 1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-prioritizes software development 70
71. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 4 1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered 1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections 1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business 1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted 1999 MySpace.com is launched 1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized 2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced 71
72. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 5 2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes 2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users 2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL) 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service 2001 The first live distributed musical 2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers 72
73. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 6 2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails 2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched 2003 Second Life launched 2003 May LinkedIn launched 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases 2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files 2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month 73
74. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 7 2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store 2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security 2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg 2004 Google IPO 2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA 2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time 2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China 2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers 2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 2003 2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released 74
75. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 8 2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins 2005 YouTube.com is launched 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media buys MySpace 2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online 2006 July Twitter launched publicly 2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune 2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction 75
76. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 9 2007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads 2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World Stats April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site 2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion 2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive: http://www.archive.org 76
77. Social Computingin Business Example product IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components: Profiles - Find the people you need Communities - Work with people whoshare common interests and expertise Blogs - Present your own ideas andlearn from others Dogear - Save and share bookmarks Activities - Organize your work andtap your professional network 77
Thank you Jessica Arts for the invitation to speak at the ARMA luncheon todayMy name is Yogi SchulzI hope you’ll find this presentation about The Future of the Internet thought-provoking and little outside of the box of the presentations that you typically hear during your lunch events
Who am I?I’m a partner of Corvelle ConsultingWe offer information technology related management consultingWe have executed many project management and systems development assignments for our clientsMany of our clients operate in the upstream oil & gas industryI have written many columns for Computing Canada. These columns have tended to focus on project management and systems development themes. The audience is composed largely of IT executives and managersTwo years ago, I began to write columns for the Microsoft web site. These columns have tended to describe useful responses to IT developments for a general audience of business managersI’ve participated in many industry conferences as a presenter:Project World - 5 yearsCIPS Informatics - 7 yearsPMI - Information Systems SIG – 2 yearsConvergence - 4 yearsProfessional Petroleum Data Management Association -PPDM Association - several years
Cyber War: Sabotaging the Systemhttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/06/60minutes/main5555565.shtml60 Minutes: Former Chief of National Intelligence Says U.S. Unprepared for Cyber Attacks, Nov. 8, 2009Several prominent intelligence sources confirmed that there were a series of cyber attacks in Brazil: one north of Rio de Janeiro in January 2005 that affected three cities and tens of thousands of people, and another, much larger event beginning on Sept. 26, 2007.That one in the state of Espirito Santo affected more than three million people in dozens of cities over a two-day period, causing major disruptions. In Vitoria, the world&apos;s largest iron ore producer had seven plants knocked offline, costing the company $7 million. It is not clear who did it or what the motive was.But the people who do these sorts of things are no longer teenagers making mischief. They&apos;re now likely to be highly trained soldiers with the Chinese army or part of an organized crime group in Russia, Europe or the Americas.&quot;They can disrupt critical infrastructure, wipe databases. We know they can rob banks. So, it&apos;s a much bigger and more serious threat,&quot; explained Jim Lewis, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.China Expands Cyberspying in U.S., Report Sayshttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB125616872684400273.htmlCongressional Advisory Panel in Washington Cites Apparent Campaign by Beijing to Steal Information From American FirmsThe New E-spionage Threathttp://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_16/b4080032218430.htmA BusinessWeek probe of rising attacks on America&apos;s most sensitive computer networks uncovers startling security gaps
Increasing Online SalesWe’ve now all bought products onlineThere’s every indication this trend will continueIt’s fast and convenient; the selection is vast, certainly more than a mall can offerOnline selling has significantly changed the retail sector of the economyOnline selling has dramatically changed the distribution industry from a focus on truckloads and cases of items to vast distribution centers focused on shipments of individual items to consumersHow many of us now conduct our research and comparison shopping online but then actually buy in a store?Anyone tried the iPod app that scans UPC codes and then produces search results for that UPC code in the browser?http://www.iphoneness.com/iphone-apps/5-best-barcode-iphone-applications/
The future of Social NetworksIn the future, the impact of Social Networkswill increase in many aspects of our livesCompanies:operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channelsoffer chat to customershost moderated discussion forumsThe goal is increased customer satisfaction through increased customer interactivityIncreased customer satisfaction leads first to increased sales and then more importantly, to better understanding of future products and services that will resonate with customersIndividuals:stay in touch with family & friendspromote causesparticipate in political actionIndividuals find value in easily staying in touch with friends and familyIt think that’s great way to maintain a sense of connectedness that phones don’t achieve as wellWe’ll see the Web used more for political actionThe last two elections in the US made use of the WebMany commentators saw the election of Barack Obama greatly assisted by his ability to raise money and mobilize local volunteers through the WebConversely, the government of China operates the Great Firewall that restricts its people’s access to various parts of the Internet These restrictions will escalate into confrontation, violence and eventually insurrectionZappos is widely touted as a superb online merchantWhat differentiates Zappos?It’s not their technology; it’s the way they train their customer service agentsThey’re never is a hurryThey typically have their competitors’ website open in another session to help customer find the exact product they want to purchase when Zappos doesn’t have the item in stock
EstoniaTahitiFar EastIsrael
ChineseInformationHighwaySome countries filter Internet content; this undermines Internet accessFor China this effort has been labelled The Great FirewallThe goal of such filtering is to minimize calls for political freedoms and to forestall challenges to the legitimacy of the clique that holds powerIn the future we will see more such attempts by autocratic regines; ultimately such efforts are bound to fail as the ingenuity of various engineers circumvents attempts to cut off Internet accessDefying censorship, Google threatens to pull out of ChinaMove follows &apos;sophisticated&apos; cyber-attackhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/defying-censorship-google-threatens-to-pull-out-of-china/article1429173/Globe and Mail cartoonhttp://v1.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/cartoon/generated/20100115.html
Revenge of the PCs?The manufacturers of PCs have not been oblivious to the faster-growing market for Internet-capable cell phonesThe response has been to make smaller, lighter, cheaper PC’sClassmate PChttp://www.classmatepc.com/One laptop per childhttp://laptop.org/en/NetbooksNetbooks have been the surprise sales hit of 2008 and 2009The lower price and weight appeal to everyone; particularly those who require only e-mail, web browsing and a little word processingThat usage profile applies to the majority of laptop users
Internet speed by countryU.S. lags other nations in Internet speed August 25, 2009 http://news.cnet.com/the-iconoclast/?keyword=InternetWonders have been achieved in video compression to reduce download bandwidth requirementsHowever, for effective video download, the average download speed likely needs to exceed 10 megabits per second
Man – ComputerIntegrationWe’re going to see more wearable PC’s appearWe’re also going to see changes to how we interact with devicesYou may recall how Tom Cruise interacted with his computer in Minority ReportDevelopments in gestures and two-point cursors will continueLinks for graphics:http://www.iswc.net/iswc09/http://www.designboom.com/weblog/cat/16/view/5586/wearable-computers.htmlhttp://www.codinghorror.com/blog/images/minority-report-ui.jpg
Internet speed by countryAkamai: World&apos;s Net connection speeds risingJanuary 14, 2010Looking at the third quarter of 2009, the report found that most countries in the top-10 list for Internet performance saw an average 18 percent increase in speed from the second quarter. South Korea topped the list, with a 29 percent jump in speed to 14.6 megabits per second, while Ireland came in second for most improved, with a 26 percent rise to 5.3Mbps.http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10434930-94.htmlInternet Connection Speed: The Top 10 CountriesApril 8th, 2009http://www.techpark.net/2009/04/08/internet-connection-speed-the-top-10-countries/
RESTON, VA, December 30, 2009 – comScore (NASDAQ : SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today reported retail e-commerce spending for the holiday season from November 1 through Christmas Eve. During this period, approximately $27 Billion was spent online, which represents an increase of 5 percent over the same period a year ago. For the period from Black Friday through Christmas Eve, and after adjusting for the additional shopping day in 2009, sales grew by approximately 3.5 percent.http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2009/12/E-Commerce_Sales_Rise_by_5_Percent_to_Reach_27_Billion_for_the_2009_Holiday_Shopping_Season_through_Christmas_Eve