1. International Conference on the Socio-
Economic Dimensions of the Syrian Conflict:
Impact of Syrian Crisis on Jordan
Yusuf Mansur, PhD
4 July 2013

2. 1
₋ Introduction
₋ Estimated Costs
₋ FDI
₋ Foreign Grants
₋ Remittances
₋ Unemployment
₋ Trade Balance
₋ Tourism Revenues
₋ Real Estate Trading
₋ Political Impact
₋ Real GDP Growth
₋ The Score Card
Outline:

3. Introduction
• Jordan Population: Almost 7 million, with 850,000
living overseas;
• Registered Syrian Refugees 550,000 (5 March 2011
until now); Zaatari Camp has 178,000 refugees,
Mrajeeb Al-Fhood Camp has 4,600 refugees;
• 450,000 arrived during 2006-2011
• UN officials expect the number of refugees to
surpass 1.3 million by the end of this year
3
Costs???

4. 4
Estimated Costs
Cost of hosting Syrian refugees exceeded JD 590 m in 18 months.
Cost in 2nd half of 2011 reached JD 140 m, while in the first 11
months of 2012 the cost was JD450 m
• Cost of hosting one refugee is estimated at JD2,500 a year
• More than 29,000 Syrian children joined public schools
between 2011 and 2012, the cost to the Kingdom was over
JD14 m
• Cost of medical care provided to refugees was around JD24.2m
• Cost of providing Syrians with subsidized energy products is
over JD51 m
• Cost of security and civil defense services is JD 49 m
• Cost of infrastructural services to refugees is JD 25 m
• 38,000 jobs were given to Syrian refugees
Source: Study by the Economic and Social Council, Jordan
Other impacts????

5. 4
1,984
2,513
1,859
2,006
1,713
1,172
1,046
996
27%
-26%
8%
-15%
-32%
-11% -5%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FDI (JD millions) FDI (%)
Foreign Direct Investment (2005-2012)
• Jan-May 2013, Syrians came second after Jordanians in terms of
registered capital, followed by Iraqi nationals
• It is estimated the Syrian investments in Jordan will reach US$1 bn
• A total of 388 firms registered in Jordan in 2012, up from 113 in 2011

6. 6
Foreign Grants and Loans (2000-2012)
Jordan has been increasingly receiving aid but not
simply due to refugees
Year Grants Loans Total
2010 802.6
2011 519.2
2012 2160
Aid in JD millions

7. 3
1,326
1,532
2,123
2,242
2,214
2,247
2,152
2,230
3%
15%
39%
6%
-1%
1%
-4%
4%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Remittance Receipts (million JD) Remittances Growth Rate(%)
Remittances (2005-2012)
Remittances increased in 2012 after a lull in 2011

8. 5
Unemployment (2000-2012)
Unemployment did not increase in
2012, unemployment in 1st Qtr 2013 was 12.8%
13.7
14.7
15.3
14.4
14.7
14.8
14.1
13.1 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.9
12.2
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Unemployment Rate (%)

9. 6
Trade Balance (2005-2012)
-3,556
-3,585
-4,574
-5,084
-4,449
-4,824
-6,262 -7,449
48%
1%
28%
11%
-13%
8%
30%
19%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade Balance net million JD Trade Balance (%)
Trade balance as % of GDP and in JD million
40% of goods were transported via Syria; Iraq as an alternative
route was considered
Increased shipping through Aqaba instead of Tartous resulted

10. 7
Tourism Revenues
Year Tourism Revenues
2011 US$ 3 bn
2012 US$3.5 bn, a 15.3 % increase
2013
(first 5 months)
US$1.34 bn, a 3.5% decline from
same period 2012
Some of the increase in 2012 was due to:
1. Libyan medical tourism;
2. Arab tourists staying in Jordan instead of going to competitor
tourism destinations such as Syria and Lebanon; and
3. Syrian long term visitors

11. • Real estate trading in Jordan reached about JD2.75 billion during the
first five months of the year 2013, a 30% increase compared with
the same period last year
• Sales of properties by non-Jordanians dropped by 8% during the first
5 months of 2013, compared with the same period of 2012: JD113.3
m in apartments and JD 59.9 m in land
• Non-Jordanian investors ( 1st five months 2013) in real state were:
11
Real Estate Trading
Rank Nationality % JD Million
1 Iraqis 53 91.5
2 Saudis 15 26.1
3 US 5.4 9.3
4 Syrians 4.7 8.1

12. Political Impact
• Reduced Demonstrations
• Lowered expectations from reform
• Return to slow if any political and economic
reform
• IMF reform programme took off
9

13. 2
8% 8% 8%
7%
5%
2%
3% 3%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Real GDP Growth (%)
Real GDP Growth (2005-2012)
Decreased growth started before Arab spring

14. The Score Card
10
Factor + - Comment
Estimated Costs X
FDI X
Foreign aid X
Remittances - - Ambiguous
Unemployment X
Trade Balance - - Oil/energy is a heavy factor
Tourism Revenues X
Real Estate Trading X
Political Impact/Stability X
Real GDP Growth X
Total 6 2 Mostly positive
In Summary

15. Conclusion:
1. Situation is still evolving vis. Jordan
2. Plans must be put in place to make the refugees
productive and benefit the economy
3. Aid agencies need to view integration not
incarceration
4. Politicians must take care not to demonize
refugees or make them the source of all
economic ills
15

16. 16
Thank You