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Prognostication in COPD: science or fiction?
1. Prognostication in
COPD: science or
fiction?
Dr Laura-Jane Smith
ST5 Respiratory Medicine
Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Fellow
Whittington Respiratory Meeting June 2015
8. Prevalence of
COPD increasing
globally, and
projected to be
the 3rd leading
cause of mortality
and 5th leading
cause of
disability by 2020
Many people die
with COPD, or
from a
complication
related to it
COPD may not be
cited as the
primary cause of
death on their
death certificate -
under-reported
as a cause of
death
11. Trajectories of death
COPD
Heart failure
Dementia
Frailty
Cancer
From Spathis and Booth 2008. End of life care in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: in search of a good death. International Journal of
COPD. 2008;3(1):11–39. Adapted from Murray et al.
13. Functional impairment
Symptom burden (breathlessness, anorexia, pain, cough, insomnia, confusion,
fatigue, low mood, anxiety, panic)
Social isolation
Impaired HRQoL
Treatment preferences
Invasive interventions near the end of life
Advance care planning
Access to specialist palliative care services
Habraken JM et al. 2009
Edmonds P et al.. 2001;15(4):287–95
Gore et al 2000
COPD Lung cancer
14. All of these factors suggest that a palliative care approach
would be beneficial for patients with advanced COPD.
National and International guidelines recommend such an
approach.
15. WHO definition of Palliative Care
Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing
the problem associated with life-threatening illness, through the prevention and relief of
suffering by means of early identification and impeccable assessment and treatment of pain and
other problems, physical, psychosocial and spiritual.
Palliative care:
• provides relief from pain and other distressing symptoms
• affirms life and regards dying as a normal process
• intends neither to hasten or postpone death
• integrates the psychological and spiritual aspects of patient care
• offers a support system to help patients live as actively as possible until death
• offers a support system to help the family cope during the patients illness and in their own
bereavement
• uses a team approach to address the needs of patients and their families, including
bereavement counselling, if indicated
• will enhance quality of life, and may also positively influence the course of illness
• is applicable early in the course of illness, in conjunction with other therapies that are
intended to prolong life, such as chemotherapy or radiation therapy, and includes those
investigations needed to better understand and manage distressing clinical complications
17. Enhance
access to a
palliative care
approach
Improve
prognostication
Move to a needs-
based approach
Identify
transitions in the
course of disease
as triggers
18. Enhance
access to a
palliative care
approach
Improve
prognostication
Move to a needs-
based approach
Identify
transitions in the
course of disease
as triggers
25. BODE
Celli BR, Cote CG, Marin JM, Casanova C, Montes de Oca M, Mendez RA, et al. The body-mass index, airflow
obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. New England Journal of
Medicine. 2004;350(10):1005–12.
26. BODE
For each one-point increment in the BODE score the hazard ratio for death from
any cause was 1.34 (95%CI 1.26-1.42) and the hazard ratio for death from a
respiratory cause was 1.62 (95%CI 1.48-1.77).
27. Kaplan-Meier Survival curves for the 4
quartiles of the BODE index and the 3
stages of severity of COPD based on
FEV1% as defined by the ATS.
Quartile 1 = 0-2
Quartile 2 = 3-4
Quartile 3 = 5-6
Quartile 4 = 7-10
Stage 1 = FEV1 >50% predicted
Stage 2 = FEV1 36-50% predicted
Stage 3 = FEV1 <36% predicted
28. Puhan MA, Hansel NN, Sobradillo P, Enright P, Lange P, Hickson D, et al. Large-scale international validation of the ADO index
in subjects with COPD: an individual subject data analysis of 10 cohorts. BMJ Open. 2012 Jan 1;2(6):e002152.
BODE v2
30. Making models count
Wyatt JC, Altman DG. Commentary: Prognostic models: clinically useful or quickly forgotten? BMJ. 1995 Dec
9;311(7019):1539–41.
Clinical credibility
• Patient data required for model is easily and reliably accessible
• Avoid arbitrary thresholds for continuous variables
• Simple to calculate at point-of-care
Evidence of accuracy
• At least as accurate as clinician prediction
• Error rates tested in large data set not used to generate model
Evidence of generality
• Model testing in other populations, in time and space
• Each item of data clearly defined to ensure easy use in different settings/languages
• Prospective validation in well-defined populations
Evidence of clinical effectiveness
• Measure effects on practice and outcomes of using model
• Similar to phase III study in drug trials
31. FEV1%
Specific co-
morbidities
Multi-morbidity Breathlessness
Functional status
Previous need for
NIV/ventilation
HRQL QoL
Socioeconomic
group
Healthcare
utilisation
Weight
loss/cachexia/BMI
<21
Sarcopenia
Exercise capacity Social isolation
Use of long term
steroids
Contact with
comm resp/pall
care team
39. Conclusions
• Many patients with COPD have a high symptom
burden and poor quality of life, yet fail to access a
palliative care approach
• Patients, carers, physicians, and policy makers
would welcome greater prognostic certainty
• Current prognostic markers and scores are
limited in their ability to accurately predict
prognosis in individual patients
• There are great opportunities to improve the lives
of patients with COPD and their carers, which
requires research and investment
40. References
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patients with COPD and chronic respiratory failure. Monaldi Arch Chest Dis Arch Monaldi Mal Torace
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chronic respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Palliat Med. 2001;15(4):287–95.
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• Almagro P, Calbo E, Ochoa de Echagüen A, Barreiro B, Quintana S, Heredia JL, et al. Mortality after hospitalization for
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of survival in severe COPD. Eur Respir J. 2004 Jan 1;23(1):28–33.
• Coxson HO, Dirksen A, Edwards LD, Yates JC, Agusti A, Bakke P, et al. The presence and progression of emphysema in
COPD as determined by CT scanning and biomarker expression: a prospective analysis from the ECLIPSE study. Lancet
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• Dallari. Predictors of survival in subjects with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Treated with Long-Term Oxygen
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• Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Draper EA, Zimmerman JE, Bergner M, Bastos PG, et al. THe apache iii prognostic system. risk
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• Nocturnal Oxygen Therapy Trial Group. Continuous or nocturnal oxygen therapy in hypoxemic chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease: a clinical trial. Ann Intern Med 1980; 93:391-8.
• Plant, P. K., and M. W. Elliott. "Non-invasive ventilation in acute exacerbations of COPD." QJm 91.10 (1998): 657-660.
• Incalzi, R. A., Fuso, L., De Rosa, M., Di Napoli, A., Basso, S., Pagliari, G., & Pistelli, R. (1999). Electrocardiographic Signs of
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• Puhan MA, Hansel NN, Sobradillo P, Enright P, Lange P, Hickson D, et al. Large-scale international validation of the ADO
index in subjects with COPD: an individual subject data analysis of 10 cohorts. Bmj Open. 2012 Jan 1;2(6):e002152.
Definition of COPD: a cluster of heterogenous disorders, characterised by expiratory flow limitation that is not completely reversible, and is progressive. A multi-factorial disorder caused by chronic environmental insults in individuals with predispositions due to variations in one or multiple genes.
COPD is caused primarily by smoking in UK (biofuels also worldwide). But remember that smoking encompasses cigarettes, pipes, shisha. Also inhaling crack and heroin cause very severe form of COPD at younger age. Debate about impact of marijuana. If smoked with tobacco appears to have synergistic effect, therefore greater lung damage. Inconsistent but suggestive evidence from population studies that marijuana smoking alone leads to modest airflow obstruction and hyperinflation, but not COPD itself. Definitely leads to emphysema. Pipe – Magritte painting called “The Treachery of Images”.
UK recorded causes of death on death certificates 2011.
WHO stats:
More than 3 million people died of COPD in 2012, which is equal to 6% of all deaths globally that year. More than 90% of COPD deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The primary cause of COPD is tobacco smoke (through tobacco use or second-hand smoke). The disease now affects men and women almost equally, due in part to increased tobacco use among women in high-income countries
The prevalence of COPD is increasing globally, and is projected to be the 3rd leading cause of mortality and 5th leading cause of disability by 2020 (Murray 1997, Goodridge 2008)
Many people die with COPD, or from a complication related to it (4–6)
But COPD may not be cited as the primary cause of death on their death certificate making it under-reported as a cause of death (Jensen 2006).
1. Murray CJ, Lopez AD. Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990–2020: Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. 1997 May 24;349(9064):1498–504.
Goodridge D, Lawson J, Duggleby W, Marciniuk D, Rennie D, Stang M. Health care utilization of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer in the last 12 months of life. Respir Med. 2008 Jun;102(6):885–91.
4. Zielinski J, MacNee W, Wedzicha JA, Ambrosino N, Braghiroli A, Dolensky J, et al. Causes of death in patients with COPD and chronic respiratory failure. Monaldi Arch Chest Dis Arch Monaldi Mal Torace Fondazione Clin Lav Irccs Ist Clin Tisiol E Mal Appar Respir Univ Napoli Secondo Ateneo. 1997 Feb;52(1):43–7.
5. Vilkman S, Keistinen T, Tuuponen T, Kivelä S-L. Survival and Cause of Death among Elderly Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients after First Admission to Hospital. Respiration. 1997;64(4):281–4.
6. McGarvey LP, John M, Anderson JA, Zvarich M, Wise RA. Ascertainment of cause-specific mortality in COPD: operations of the TORCH Clinical Endpoint Committee. Thorax. 2007 May 1;62(5):411–5.
7. Jensen HH, Godtfredsen NS, Lange P, Vestbo J. Potential misclassification of causes of death from COPD. Eur Respir J. 2006 Oct 1;28(4):781–5.
Pin the stats on the data visualisation!
The natural history of COPD follows the organ failure trajectory(8), with a gradual decline in function punctuated by acute exacerbations, making outcome and prognostic assessment challenging in individual patients.
8. Murray S, McLoughlin P. Illness Trajectories and Palliative Care. International Perspectives on Public Health and Palliative Care. Routledge; 2013.
The natural history of COPD follows the organ failure trajectory(8), with a gradual decline in function punctuated by acute exacerbations, making outcome and prognostic assessment challenging in individual patients.
8. Murray S, McLoughlin P. Illness Trajectories and Palliative Care. International Perspectives on Public Health and Palliative Care. Routledge; 2013.
Figures from BODE validation cohort
According to bereaved informal caregivers, COPD patients in the last year of life experience breathlessness (94%) anorexia (67%), pain (77%), cough (59%), insomnia (65%), confusion (33%), and low mood (71%) Other studies have found a significant symptom burden, particularly breathlessness, fatigue, and limitation of daily activities often leading to social isolation. Anxiety, panic and depression are also prominent and under-treated. Unsurprisingly, quality of life is impaired even in those with mild disease, and continues to deteriorate in those with severe disease. However, individual trajectories vary widely, along with quality of life and health-related quality of life .
20
Although a palliative care approach should not be reserved for those in the last weeks and months of life, traditionally prognosis has been the way patients have been identified for such care and services. Guidelines which advocate increased advance care planning suggest identifying patients with a likely prognosis of less than six months to a year in whom to start such conversations.
Stewart and McMurray (2002) have described ‘prognostic paralysis’ in which clinicians faced with uncertain disease trajectories (particularly in COPD, cardiac failure and dementia) hesitate and delay considering end-of-life-issues, leading to failure to offer patients a palliative care approach that could in fact enhance quality of life.
A number of options are available to try to address current shortcomings in care.
Importantly, there remain growing calls from patients, their relatives, healthcare professionals and policy makers for better tools for prognostication.
This is the area I am particularly interested in.
It is well documented that clinician estimates of prognosis in both malignant and non-malignant life-limiting disease are inaccurate, even if the clinicians are highly experienced. Most often predictions are overly optimistic, and there is vast inter-rater variability(46). Estimates of survival vary amongst physicians in patients with COPD, perhaps partly because of differential weighting of physiological and social factors.
The CAOS study, which considered people with asthma and COPD (Wildman 2007) found that clinician predictions were generally pessimistic for patients being considered for admission to an intensive care unit, as compared to actual survival. Clinicians seem more comfortable with, and accurate at predicting mortality in patients with cancer compared to non-malignant disease. There is therefore a need to stop relying on intuition and to develop instruments which could aid more reliable clinical predictions.
The limitations of data
Specific populations
Markers not available in community
Heterogenous disease
Prognostic models: Attempts have been made to more rigorously assess the validity of clusters of patient characteristics by using statistical and epidemiological techniques to create models. Such models exist for populations such as the hospitalized elderly (Walter 2001), and the critically ill (APACHE).
Jan 97 – June 2002 859 outpatients with a wide range of severity of COPD recruited from clinics in the USA, Spain and Venezuela
COPD = smoking >20 pack years, and FEV1/FVC <0.7 20mins after albutarol.
Exclusion criteria: illness other than COPD likely to cause death in <3yrs; asthma; inability to do lung function tests and 6MWT; MI in last 3 months; unstable angina; heart failure NYHA III-IV.
Factors that were recorded: age; sex; pack-years of smoking; FVC; FEV1; the best of two six minute–
walk tests performed at least 30 minutes apart; the degree of dyspnea, measured with the use of the modified Medical Research Council
(MMRC) dyspnea scale; the body-mass index; the functional residual capacity and inspiratory capacity the hematocrit; and the albumin level.
The validated Charlson index was used to determine the degree of comorbidity.
Each of these possible explanatory variables was independently evaluated to determine its association with one-year mortality in a stepwise forward logistic-regression analysis.
Limitations:
Relatively few women recruited
Unlike widely used risk scores such as the Framingham risk score and the APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) scores, the BODE index does not provide absolute risks of mortality and its calibration has never been assessed. As a consequence, the BODE index seems not yet ready for use as a prognostic instrument in patients with COPD.
Could aid individualised COPD management according to risk profile. Allows identification of patients at moderate or high risk of mortality, for which more comprehensive management with, for example respiratory rehab, might be appropriate to reduce their risk.
At what thresholds a more or less intensive treatment should be proposed to have an acceptable risk–benefit ratio is unclear. But examples from cardiovascular medicine show that a consensus can be reached on how to treat patients at different risk for mortality.
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What needs to happen to achieve this?
Increasing awareness of wider aspects of care within the respiratory community, accessing education and training on how to assess these needs, and constructing models of close working with specialist palliative care teams to offer appropriate support, are essential in moving forward to provide high quality palliative care for patients with COPD.
The initiation of palliative care must not be seen as an end to treatment, or as an inevitable start of the end of life phase. In fact a palliative care approach can not only enhance quality of life but may extend duration of life.
Currently, patients with COPD are most likely to be cared for in a reactive crisis model at the time of deterioration, with management focused exclusively on prolongation of life. New models are needed to better support chronic disease management.
A number of new models of care have been proposed and some have been piloted. They follow the model of mixed management and simultaneous care, such that respiratory and palliative care services work in parallel, and ‘active’ or ‘disease-focused’ treatments are provided alongside a palliative care approach. Although we are aware of innovative practice in individual institutions, not all of these have been formally evaluated, and therefore the available literature is limited.
At a time of increased political commitment to high quality palliative care regardless of diagnosis, further investment in research is needed in this field.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/news/archives/2015/04/PalliativeCare.aspx
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Patients with advanced COPD have a high burden of symptoms and significant physical, emotional and psychological needs. These are not being met by current models of care, leaving patients with impaired quality of life and a lack of advance care planning.
More accurate prognostication, would be welcomed by healthcare professionals, patients and carers. In addition, investment in research into interventions for breathlessness and other symptoms such as pain, fatigue, anxiety and depression is essential.
There are great opportunities to improve the lives of patients with advanced COPD, which can be achieved if Respiratory and Palliative care specialists work in parallel to conduct research and to support patients and their carers.