Slides for defense of dissertation on the national security role of the vice president.

1. From Throttlebottom to Angler:
The Evolving National Security Role
of the Vice President
Dissertation Defense
Aaron Mannes
June 10, 2014
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2. From Throttlebottom to Angler
I would a great deal rather be anything, say a
professor of history, than Vice-President
– Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt, 25th Vice
President of the United States
…the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably
had in American history
– Vice President Joe Biden describing his
predecessor, Dick Cheney
In just a few decades the vice presidency has
shifted from “Constitutional appendage” to the
“Imperial Vice Presidency”
What Changed?
What do these changes tell us about presidential
decision-making and the national security
process?
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3. Questions & Definitions
• Why has the vice presidency become a source of
influence?
• Why have presidents been increasingly willing to
follow the advice of the vice president?
Influence is defined by Paul Light as “an adviser’s ability to
change outcomes from what they would have been.”
It is distinguished from Activity, which is the vice president
undertaking tasks on behalf of the president.
National Security is understood broadly to include space, energy,
economics & trade, and homeland security.
Modern Presidency started in 1933 under President Franklin
Delano Roosevelt.
Modern Vice Presidency started 1977 under President Carter and
Vice President Mondale
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4. Three Theories
Three general theories, each with several hypotheses, were
examined to understand the growth in vice presidential influence:
1) Demands and powers of the modern presidency have created
incentives for presidents to give their VPs expanded roles
2) The semi-institutionalization of the vice presidential role has
given the VP the resources to exercise influence
3) Rise of the outsider presidency has brought individuals with
little Washington experience to the presidency and they have
selected their running mates as partners who can complement
their skills and experience

5. Modern Presidency
H1A: When the president is able to
select his vice president, the VP is
more likely to exercise influence
Finding: absence of this factor
makes vice presidential influence
unlikely (present for 6 of 7
influential VPs)
• Until 1940, running mates were
usually selected by the party and
were often not known by the
president or a political rival
• Allowing the nominee to select his
running mate created the
possibility of choosing him based
on his skills and compatibility
• Example: Martin Van Buren
H1B: As the demands on the
president have increased, the vice
president will have greater
opportunities to exercise influence
Finding: absence of this factor
makes vice presidential influence
unlikely (present for 5 of 7
influential VPs)
• Despite the number of influential
VPs since the advent of the modern
presidency, the strength of this
factor was that it created the
possibility of the modern outsider
president
• Insider modern presidents did not
rely on their VPs nor did pre-modern
outsider presidents
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6. H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff are better
able to exercise influence.
Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence
unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs)
• In the 1970s, VPs were granted substantial personal staff
• Staff allowed the VP to follow issues, develop areas of expertise,
and use surrogates for influence
Example: Dan Quayle
– One of two un-influential vice presidents studied, Quayle attracted
extremely capable staffers and expanded the VP’s office
– Staff helped him push issues of interest like missile defense and
identified areas where he could play a role
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7. H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the West Wing are better
able to exercise influence
Finding: absence of this factor makes vice
presidential influence unlikely (present for
5 of 5 influential modern VPs)
• Nothing propinks like propinquity
• Essence of vice presidential influence is time
with the president, it is much easier to see
the president with an office down the hall
• Policy is made by a process of osmosis
• Important, but not essential factor -
Mondale’s successor, Bush Sr., did not spend
as much time as in West Wing and during
Cheney’s period of greatest influence he was
often at an undisclosed location
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8. H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to the President, and with access to
White House meetings and paper-flow for themselves and their staff are
better able to exercise influence
Finding: absence of this factor makes vice
presidential influence impossible (present for
7 of 7 influential VPs)
• Without access to the president, the VP cannot
exercise influence
• Access to White House meetings and paper-flow
is also essential in order to know what decisions
are being considered
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President McKinley and Vice
President Hobart vacationing
at Lake Champlain

9. H2D: Vice presidents who are discreet in advancing their policy preferences
and publicly loyal to the president are better able to exercise influence
Finding: absence of this factor
makes vice presidential influence
impossible (present for 7of 7
influential VPs)
• After consulting his predecessors,
particularly his mentor VP
Humphrey, VP Mondale adopted a
set of low-key influence strategies
• Because VPs cannot be fired, they
need to be particularly careful to
demonstrate loyalty and discretion
• Influential VPs have restricted their
advice to the president in private or
in small trusted groups and publicly
supported presidential decisions
Example: John C. Calhoun
- NOT a model of vice presidential discretion
- Headed a political faction and publicly
opposed both presidents he served
- Later, when he sought to reach out to
Jackson, the president was not amenable
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10. Outsiders & Insiders
H3A: Outsider presidents are more likely to select running mates for personal
and political compatibility, increasing the likelihood that the President will
include the VP as a top advisor
Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence
probable (present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs)
H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to be inexperienced in areas such as
national security affairs and not have strong national security teams, thus
creating opportunities for vice presidential influence
Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence
probable (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs)
• Outsider presidential candidates often recognize their unfamiliarity with
Washington politics and national security issues and select running mates for their
expertise
• When national security challenges (inevitably) confront outsider presidents,
experienced VPs can help the president make decisions and understand options
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11. H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seek their vice
presidents’ input in the appointments process, which increases
the VP’s opportunities for influence
• Finding: Presence of this factor
makes vice presidential
influence probable
• This factor was split into two
components:
- cabinet & bureaucracy allies present for
4 of 7 influential VPs
- White House allies present for 4 of 5
modern influential VPs
• Allies in cabinet and bureaucracy less
frequent for modern VPs
• Allies in White House are helpful as
sources of information and as
alternative voices advancing the VP’s
position
Example: George H. W. Bush
- Bush was not selected for his expertise and,
having been a campaign rival, was distrusted
by Reaganites
- Reagan recognized the need for DC
experience on his staff and appointed Bush
advisor Jim Baker as White House chief of
staff
- With Baker as chief of staff, Bush could not be
cut out of policy process and had alternate
means to reach president
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12. Vice Presidential Needs
• Without access the VP cannot
influence policy
• Given access, the VP needs the
capability to influence policy
• Even if these elements are present, the
president has to give the vice president
the opportunity to give advice
• Opportunities exist when outsider
presidents encounter unfamiliar
issues
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13. The President’s Needs
Seeing the Whole Equation
Advice
TRUST
First and foremost, presidents need VPs that
can be trusted.
Several areas where outsider presidents
turn to the VP:
• Life and Death decisions
• Balancing politics and policy, particularly with
Congress
• Tools and institutions of national security
• Insight into other governments and countries
When the biggest issues involve several of
these components, presidents may need help
seeing the whole equation
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14. Overview of Findings
Vice%Presidents%Studied%and%their%Influence%Factors%
(Influential%Vice%Presidents%Highlighted)%
!
Vice President Calhoun Quayle Van
Buren
Hobart Mondale Bush Gore Cheney Biden Influential VP
possessing this factor/
Total applicable
influential VPsPresident Jackson Bush Jackson McKinley Carter Reagan Clinton Bush Obama
Chosen by President H1A No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 6/7
Modern Presidency H1B No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/7
Staff H2A NA Yes NA NA Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/5
West Wing Office H2B NA Yes NA NA Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/5
Access to the President &
Policy Process H2C
No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7
Modes of Behavior H2D No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7
Outsider President Selects
for Expertise H3A
NA No NA NA Yes No Yes Yes Yes 4/5
Specialized Knowledge used
by President H3B
No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7
Allies Appointed in Cabinet
& Bureaucracy H3C
No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No 4/7
Allies Appointed in White
House H3C
NA No NA NA Yes Yes Yes No Yes 4/5
TOTAL 0/6 6/10 5/6 4/6 9/10 8/10 10/10 9/10 9/10
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