The upcoming holiday season will be the biggest online shopping extravagnaza yet. So says Adobe Digital Insights (ADI), which predicts an 11% growth year-over-year, with holiday online sales reaching $91.6 billion.

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2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions
Adobe Digital Insights

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Methodology
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Adobe
Analytics
Adobe
Mobile Services
Adobe
Social
Most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry
 Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers **
 $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
 Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs
 Predictions in past years within 2 percentage points
 Companion research based on survey with 1,000+ U.S. consumers
 75M Social Mentions From Sept 2015 - Dec 2015 & Aug 2016 - Oct 2016
Data from different Adobe Marketing Cloud solutions:
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data
** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2016
Adobe Marketing Cloud has seen strong adoption in the retail
space – Adobe’s leadership in the Web analytics market has given
it a big advantage here. Retailers need “big data” insights to
optimize their cross-channel digital experiences and campaigns –
and deliver the personalized, relevant experiences that inspire
customer loyalty and advocacy. – Melissa Webster, IDCAdobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other
trademarks are the property of their respective owners

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Top Predictions
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Black Friday Will Be Biggest Ever, Hitting $3 Billion For First Time
57 Total One Billion Dollar Shopping Days, And 53 Straight One Billion Dollar Days – Up 71% YoY
Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost You 20% During the Holidays
5% of Customers Drive 35% of Revenue
The Holiday Season Starts Earlier, and Consumers Can Find Good Discounts Before Black Friday Weekend
Mobile Set to Overtake Desktop Visits, Yet Purchasing Remains Behind
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25% of top products are sold during Black Friday Weekend
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Black Friday Sets Record Sales, Cyber Monday Biggest Day Ever
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Holiday season set to grow 11% YoY, reaching $91.6 billion overall ($9.1 billion more than 2015)
From Nov 1 through Dec 31
 Cyber Monday to hit $3.36 Billion
9.4% YoY Growth
 Record sales on Black Friday
$3.05 Billion Ι 11.3% YoY Growth
 Thanksgiving Day to grow fastest
$2.00 Billion Ι 15.6% YoY Growth
$8.4 billion in just three days:

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Holiday Will See Unprecedented Amount of Billion Dollar Days
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57 total and 53 consecutive days will bring in $1B+ in revenue during the 2016 holiday season
 Average growth for first two weeks of Nov: 5%
 Average growth for last two weeks of Dec: 24%

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Consumers Continue to Increase Their Online Purchasing
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Convenience factors for purchasing online grew YoY for consumers
 Lower prices, good deals, and free shipping remain at the top of reasons for shopping online
States with highest e-commerce rate see correlation with more graduate degrees, student and total debt, and higher rent
as share of income
 Washington D.C. highest growth, Mississippi lowest

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Holiday Shopping Season Starts Earlier
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31% of US consumers say they will start shopping before November 1 (+5% YoY)
 27% say they will start before Thanksgiving (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)
 Nearly 12% of all Christmas decorations will be bought before Halloween, up 20% from since last year

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DPI Indicates Holidays See Steep Price Discounts
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A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness
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A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness
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Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost Customers 20% During the Holidays
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The average price difference for the same product fluctuates 20% between retailers during the holiday season
 Price comparing toys could save you the most (24%), while electronics will save you the least (17%)
 Consumers typically check an average of four to five websites before making a purchase (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)

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25% of Consumers Will Pay Higher Prices During Holiday
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 Despite the increased ability to find a
discount, 25% of customers will pay a higher
price during the holidays
 Consumers appear to be willing to pay a
premium, perhaps for quality assurance or
brand loyalty
 Loyalty pays off for the retailer too: 5% of
customers drive 35% of revenue

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Mobile Shopping to Exceed Desktop in Holiday 2016
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Shoppers rely more on mobile:
 Mobile will exceed desktop visits for first
time this holiday (53%), yet only drive 34%
of purchases
 60% of consumers expect to rely on mobile
browsing (vs. app) this year vs. last year (ADI
Holiday Survey 2016)
Cyber Monday mobile visits grow fastest
 Thanksgiving:
 59% mobile visits, 41% mobile commerce
 Black Friday:
 57% mobile visits, 37% mobile commerce
 Cyber Monday:
 49% mobile visits, 32% mobile commerce

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Purchases on Mobile Devices Remain Behind
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Mobile shoppers struggle to go beyond the shopping cart and convert when compared to desktop
 Desktop conversion rate is 2.7x higher than smartphone
 While 30% of carts result in an order on desktop, only 19% of carts result in an order on smartphones

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Display Gives Highest Chance of Finding Discounted Product
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Consumers indicate the best source of online
shopping deals during the holiday is email from
a retailer, followed by ads
 Consumers rank social media sites and push
notifications from apps the lowest (Source: ADI
Holiday Survey 2016)
Display has the highest odds of leading to a
discounted product (29%)
 Social and email rank second

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Most Buzzed About Gifts for Holiday 2016
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Hot Products You Might Miss Based on Buzz
25% of annual top products sales happen between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (in units)
 Some products may sell out faster than others: ‘Buy Earlier in November ’ indicates products customers shouldn’t wait to
purchase, ‘Buy Later’ are a safer bet

18. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | 2016 Holiday Shopping Prediction
Appendix: Holiday Predictions 2016 (US)
Adobe Digital Insights

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Email Rated #1 to Get Offer to Consumer’s Mobile Device While Shopping

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Overall Holiday Budgets Increased by 17%; Budget Breakdown

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1% of Products Drive 74% of Online Sales During the Holidays

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Black Friday and Cyber Monday Social Buzz Doesn’t Hit Until November

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Average Price Difference by Category

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Digital Price Index by Category
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Digital Price Index by Category
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Digital Price Index by Category
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